• Title/Summary/Keyword: risk-sensitive

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Sensitivity Analysis of Uncertainty Sources in Flood Inundation Mapping by using the First Order Approximation Method (FOA를 이용한 홍수범람도 구축에서 불확실성 요소의 민감도 분석)

  • Jung, Younghun;Park, Jeryang;Yeo, Kyu Dong;Lee, Seung Oh
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.33 no.6
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    • pp.2293-2302
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    • 2013
  • Flood inundation map has been used as a fundamental information in flood risk management. However, there are various sources of uncertainty in flood inundation mapping, which can be another risk in preventing damage from flood. Therefore, it is necessary to remove or reduce uncertainty sources to improve the accuracy of flood inundation maps. However, the entire removal of uncertainty source may be impossible and inefficient due to limitations of knowledge and finance. Sensitivity analysis of uncertainty sources allows an efficient flood risk management by considering various conditions in flood inundation mapping because an uncertainty source under different conditions may propagate in different ways. The objectives of this study are (1) to perform sensitivity analysis of uncertainty sources by different conditions on flood inundation map using the FOA method and (2) to find a major contributor to a propagated uncertainty in the flood inundation map in Flatrock at Columbus, U.S.A. Result of this study illustrates that an uncertainty in a variable is differently propagated to flood inundation map by combination with other uncertainty sources. Moreover, elevation error was found to be the most sensitive to uncertainty in the flood inundation map of the study reach.

Research on Farmer's Response to the Farm-customized Early Warning Service for Weather Risk Management in Korea (농장맞춤형 기상재해 조기경보서비스의 농업인 반응조사)

  • Soo Jin Kim;Sangtaek Seo;Kyo-Moon Shim
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.151-171
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    • 2023
  • This study analyzed farmer's responses to the pilot project in advance of the nationwide expansion of the farm-customized early warning service for weather risk management by conducting a survey among all farmers who received text messages of this service. We analyzed not only the satisfaction of farmers with the early warning service, but also the effectiveness of the service in preventing agrometeorological disasters through cross-tabulation analysis of survey results. More than 330 farmers participated in the survey, and more than 60% of the respondents said that they had prevented or mitigated crop disasters by using the early warning service. The cross-tabulation analysis showed that farmers who perceived the field-specific weather information of the early warning service to be more accurate than the weather forecast were statistically significantly more likely to prevent crop disasters than those who did not. According to our case study, farmers who grew open field fruit crops were particularly sensitive to weather information and confirmed that early warning services, along with disaster prevention facilities, were effective in preparing for freezing and frost injury that had been occurring frequently under the influence of climate change. This study is significant in that it is the first to systematically analyze the effectiveness of the farm-customized early warning service for weather risk management based on extensive surveys. It is expected to contribute to exploring ways to develop the service ahead of the nationwide expansion of the early warning service in the near future.

Review of the Radiation Risk and Clinical Efficacy Associated with Computed Tomography Cancer Screening (암의 조기발견을 위한 CT촬영에서의 임상적 효능과 방사선위해에 대한 고찰)

  • Kim, Hyun Ja
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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    • v.38 no.4
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    • pp.214-227
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    • 2013
  • Computed tomographic scan as a screening procedures in asymptomatic individuals has seen a steady increase with the introduction of multiple-raw detector CT scanners. This report provides a brief review of the current controversy surrounding CT cancer screening, with a focus on the radiation induced cancer risks and clinical efficacy. 1. A large study of patients at high risk of lung cancer(the National Lung Screening Trial[NLST]) showed that CT screening reduced cancer deaths by 20%(1.33% in those screened compared with 1.67% in those not screened). The rate of positive screening tests was 24.2% and 96.4% of the positive screening results in the low-dose CT group were false-positive. Radiation induced lung cancer risk was estimated the most important in screening population because ERR of radiation induced lung cancer does not show the decrease with increasing age and synergistic connection between smoking and radiation risk. Therefore, the radiation risk may be on the same order of magnitude as the benefit observed in the NLST. Optimal screening strategy remain uncertain, CT lung cancer screening is not yet ready for implementation. 2. Computed tomographic colonography is as good as colonoscopy for detecting colon cancer and is almost as good as colonoscopy for detecting advanced adenomas, but significantly less sensitive and specific for smaller lesions and disadvantageous for subsequent therapeutic optical colonoscopy if polyps are detected. The average effective dose from CT colonography was estimated 8-10 $mS{\nu}$, which could be a significant dose if administered routinely within the population over many years. CT colonography should a) achieve at least 90% sensitivity and specificity in the size category from 6 and 10 mm, b) offer non-cathartic bowl preparation and c) be optimized and standardized CT parameters if it is to be used for mass screening. 3. There is little evidence that demonstrates, for whole-body scanning, the benefit outweighs the detriment. This test found large portion of patient(86~90.8%) had at least one abnormal finding, whereas only 2% were estimated to have clinically significant disease. Annual scans from ages 45 to 75 years would accrue an estimated lifetime cancer mortality risk of 1.9%. There is no group within the medical community that recommends whole-body CT. No good studies indicate the accuracy of screening CT, at this time. The benefit/risk balance for any of the commonly suggested CT screening techniques has yet to be established. These areas need further research. Therefore wild screening should be avoided.

Exposure Assessment and Health Risk of Polybrominated Diphenyl Ether (PBDE) Flame Retardants in Indoor Environments of Children's Facilities in Korea

  • Kim, Ho-Hyun;Yang, Ji-Yeon;Jang, Yun-Suk;Lee, Yong-Jin;Lee, Chung-Soo;Shin, Dong-Chun;Lim, Young-Wook
    • Asian Journal of Atmospheric Environment
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    • v.5 no.4
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    • pp.247-262
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    • 2011
  • This study assessed the health risks of childhood exposure to PBDEs via different possible pathways in children's facilities and indoor playgrounds. When PBDE contamination was measured, it was determined through multiple routes, including inhalation of indoor dust, dermal contact with product surfaces and children's hands, and incidental dust ingestion. Samples were collected from various children's facilities (playrooms, daycare centers, kindergartens, and indoor playgrounds) during summer (Jul-Sep, 2007) and winter (Jan-Feb, 2008). The hazard index (HI) was estimated for non-carcinogens, and PBDEs, such as TeBDE, PeBDE, HxBDE, and DeBDE, were examined. The sensitivity to the compounds did not exceed 1.0 (HI) for any of the subjects in any facility. However, current data about toxicity does not reflect effects that were fully sensitive in children, so there is uncertainty in the dose-response data. The contribution rates of PBDEs were 71.4 to 96.1% and 3.7 to 28.2% for intake and inhalation exposure, respectively, indicating that intake of floor dust and inhalation are the primary routes.

The Behavioral Model of Digital Music Piracy on the Web (인터넷에서의 디지털 음악 저작권 침해 행동에 관한 연구)

  • Han, Jung-Hee;Chang, Hwal-Sik
    • The Journal of Information Systems
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.135-158
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    • 2007
  • The purpose of this research is to identify multidimensional motivation factors that determine the piracy of copyrighted digital music. The model is based on TPB(theory of planned behavior) as well as other models in consumer behavior. An empirical study resulted in the following findings. first Both individual's attitude toward music piracy and individual's perceived behavior control have positive impacts on the individual's behavioral intention of piracy. It turned out that perceived behavior control has a stronger impact on behavioral intention than attitude does. Second, the level of individual's moral judgment has negative impacts on both the attitude and behavioral intention toward music piracy. Third, individual's experience in music piracy positively affects the attitude, but does not directly or indirectly affect the behavior intention. Fourth, an economic gain from music piracy is not a significant factor in determining both attitude and behavioral intention. Fifth, the risk of being prosecuted for music piracy is a major factor in determining one's attitude, although the risk is not significant enough to change one's behavioral intention. This research found that individuals' intention to pirate digital music is mainly affected by the moral and ethical standards of the individuals and by the extra resources and abilities they possess. Such factors as economic gain and law enforcement were not significant enough to alter one's behavioral intention. This research is significant in that it established a behavioral model to understand the piracy of copyrighted digital music and that it empirically tested the model with Internet users in Korea. This is one of the first empirical studies in Korea to touch such ethically and perhaps politically sensitive issues as online music piracy.

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Preliminary Risk Assessment of Several Major Pharmaceutical Products In Aquatic Ecosystem

  • Park, Su-Jung;Oh, So-Rin;Jung, Jin-Yong;Kim, Young-Hee;Kim, Pan-Gyi;Choi, Kyung-Ho
    • Proceedings of the Korean Environmental Health Society Conference
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    • 2005.06a
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    • pp.345-350
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    • 2005
  • Acute toxicities of five pharmaceutical products were evaluated with aquatic microbes, invertebrates, and fish. The test pharmaceuticals, i.e., cimetidine, carbamazepine, diltiazem, acetaminophene, and metformin have been often detected in aquatic environment, but theire cological hazard on receptors of various trophic levels has seldom been evaluated. In the present study, we conducted acute toxicity assays with a marine bacterium, Vibrio fischeri, an invertebrate, Daphnia magna, and a fish, Japanese medake (Oryzias latipes). In general, D. magna, showed the most sensitive response to the test chemicals. Diltiazem exhibited the lowest EC50 value after 96 hr of exposure at 7.6 mg/L, followed by cimetidine >acetaminophen > metformin = carbamazepine in an order of decreasing susceptibility. With the fish, diltiazem and carbamazepine showed the 96 hr EC50 values at 14.1${\sim}$35.4 mg/L while acetaminophen, cimetidine, and metformin did not cause 50% mortality at 100 mg/L. Similar pattern was noted with the Microtox Assay, with which the median effective concentrations for acetaminophen, cimetidine, and metformin were found at the range between 301.8 and 755.4 mg/L. Carbamazepine and diltiazem exposure to the microbes resulted in EC50 values around 50 mg/L. Predicted no effect concentrations (PECs) of these pharmaceuticals derived from the EC5O values obtained from this study, and predicted environmental concentrations (PECs) obtained from available literatures were utilized to estimate ecological risks of the test compounds. No test pharmaceuticals resulted in risk quotients (PEC/PNEC) greater than 1, which suggests no serious potential ecological concerns. It should be noted however that further studies including the refinement of PEC derivation, identification and toxicity assessment of the metabolites and/or their interactions with other stressors may be warranted to better understand the environmental consequences of the residual pharmaceutical discharge to the waterway.

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Distribution of Seven N-Nitrosamines in Food

  • Park, Jong-eun;Seo, Jung-eun;Lee, Jee-yeon;Kwon, Hoonjeong
    • Toxicological Research
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    • v.31 no.3
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    • pp.279-288
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    • 2015
  • N-nitrosamines, which are classified as carcinogens by IARC and US EPA, can be easily found in various foods. They are reaction products between nitrogen oxide and secondary amines, but can also be generated during fermentation. Ever since the 1960s, when nitrite, used as a preservative in processed meats, was suspected to generate N-nitrosamines, the usage of the food additive has been debated. However, the benefit of nitrite in food supply could not be ignored and the risk-benefit analysis has become a key issue in the use of the additive. For a risk analysis, an accurate estimation of the hazardous material is necessary; therefore, analytical methods for nitrosamines have continuously evolved from the 1950s. Solid supported liquid-liquid extraction and solid phase extractions have replaced the distillation for the clean-up steps, and tandem mass spectrometry is employed for higher selectivity and sensitivity. In the present study, for a better estimation of N-nitrosamine intake, the total diet study samples were prepared for the N-nitrosamines analysis. In order to obtain the most sensitive results, a partial preparation procedure was developed and modified for different food matrices. Among seven N-nitrosamines (N-nitrosodimethylamine, N-nitrosomethylethylamine, N-nitrosodiethylamine, N-nitrosodibutylamine, N-nitrosopiperidine, N-nitrosopyrrolidine, and N-nitrosomorpholine) analyzed in the present study, N-nitrosodiethylamine has shown the highest detection rate in agricultural foods, while N-nitrosodimethylamine has appeared most frequently in livestock and fishery food products. The concentration of N-nitrosodimethylamine was the highest in seasoning.

Impact of Privacy Concern and Institutional Trust on Privacy Decision Making: A Comparison of E-Commerce and Location-Based Service (프라이버시 염려와 제도적 신뢰가 프라이버시 의사결정에 미치는 영향: 전자상거래와 위치기반서비스의 비교)

  • Kim, Sanghee;Kim, Jongki
    • Journal of Korea Society of Industrial Information Systems
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.69-87
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    • 2017
  • This Research Attempted to Clarify the Eeffect of Privacy Concern and Institutional Trust on Privacy Decision based on Privacy Calculus Perspective. We Developed a Research Model Suggesting that the Influence of Privacy Benefit and Privacy risk on the Information Disclosure Behavior and the Influence of Privacy Concern and Institutional Trust on the Privacy Calculus. In this Regard, in Order to Examine the Difference According to the Target whose Personal Information was Collected, an Empirical Analysis was Conducted to Compare the E-commerce Field and LBS(Location Based Service) Field. The Results of Empirical Analysis are as follows. First, it is Founded that other Relations were All Statistically Significant Except the Relation between Privacy Risk and Information Disclosure Behavior in the LBS group. Next, as a Results of Comparison of Constructs in the E-commerce and Institutional trust than the LBS group, Identifying that the Consumers are more Sensitive to the Personal Information Collected in the E-commerce site.

A Study on Ignition Hazard Caused by Electrostatic Discharge of Gasoline Used in the Gas Station (주유소에서 사용하는 휘발유의 정전기 방전으로 인한 점화위험성에 관한 연구)

  • Moon, Kyoon-Tae;Chung, Jae-Hee;Mizuki, Yamaguma;Choi, Kwang-Seok
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.13-18
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    • 2010
  • To investigate electrostatic ignition hazards of commercial gasoline used in the gas station, experiments were conducted dealing with the minimum ignition energy(MIE) of several kinds of gasoline under the various temperature. The conductivity of gasoline that was required for an accurate risk assessment as well as the MIE were also examined. The solvent ignitability apparatus which can heat up the inside of the vessels up to $210^{\circ}C$ was used in this study. Four kinds of premium gasoline and four kinds of regular gasoline, differing with respect to the companies, were used as test specimens. The following results were obtained: (1) all gasoline specimens were so sensitive that even an electrostatic discharge with a very low energy, such as about 0.5mJ, could ignite them. The ignitability of premium gasoline was constant irrespective of the companies. On the other hand, the ignitability of regular gasoline was variable depending on the company. (2) The MIE of all specimens depended markedly on the temperature; in other words, an increase in temperature decreases the ignition energy value. (3) The conductivity values of all specimens were low. Those must be taken into consideration in electrostatic risk assessment.

Associated Factors of Impaired Fasting Glucose in Some Korean Rural Adults (농촌지역 주민의 공복혈당장애와 관련요인)

  • Yun, Hye-Eun;Han, Mi-Ah;Kim, Ki-Soon;Park, Jong;Kang, Myeng-Guen;Ryu, So-Yeon
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.43 no.4
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    • pp.309-318
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    • 2010
  • Objective: This study was performed to investigate the prevalence of impaired fasting glucose (IFG) and its related characteristics among healthy adults in some Korean rural areas. Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional study using the data from 1352 adults who were over the age 40 and under the age 70 and who were free of diabetes mellitus (DM), cardiovascular diseases and other diseases and who participated in a survey conducted as part of the Korean Rural Genomic Cohort Study. IFG was defined as a serum fasting glucose level between 100 and 125 mg/dL. Results: The prevalence of IFG was 20.4% in men, 15.5% in women and 12.7% overall. Multivariate logistic regression analysis demonstrated that the independent risk factors for IFG were male gender, having a family history of DM, the quartiles of gamma glutamyltransferase and high sensitive C-reactive protein and the waist circumference. The homeostatis model assessment for insulin resistance was very strongly associated with IFG. The prevalence of metabolic syndrome (MS) and MS components was higher in the subjects with IFG then in those with normal fasting glucose (NFG). Conclusions: The result of study could supply evidence to find the high risk population and to determine a strategy for treating IFG. Further research is needed to explain the causal relationship and mechanisms of IFG.