• 한국기계가공학회지
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• 제10권5호
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• pp.117-124
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• 2011

Tire's performance plays important roles in improving vehicle's performances. Tire makers carry out a lot of research to improve tire's performance. They are making effort to meet multi purposes using various optimization methods. Recently, the tire makers perform the shape optimization using approximation models, which are surrogate models obtained by statistical method. Generally, the reason why we increase sampling points during optimization process, is to get more reliable approximation models, but the more we adopt sampling points, the more we need time to test. So it is important to select approximation model and proper number of sampling points to balance between reliability and time consuming. In this research, we studied to compare two kind cases for a approximation construction. First, we compare RSM and Kriging which are Curve Fitting Method and Interpolation Method, respectively. Second, we construct approximation models using three different number of sampling points. And then, we recommend proper approximation model and orthogonal array adopt tire's design optimization.

• Journal of Electrical Engineering and information Science
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• 제2권6호
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• pp.123-130
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• 1997

This paper presents a generalized expansion method for calculating reliability index in power generation systems. This generalized expansion with a gamma distribution is a very useful tool for the approximation of capacity outage probability distribution of generation system. The well-known Gram-Charlier expansion and Legendre series are also studied in this paper to be compared with this generalized expansion using a sample system IEEE-RTS(Reliability Test System). The results show that the generalized expansion with a composite of gamma distributions is more accurate and stable than Gram-Charlier expansion and Legendre series as addition of the terms to be expanded.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제25권4호
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• pp.355-371
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• 2018

The two parameter negative exponential distribution has many practical applications in queuing theory such as the service times of agents in system, the time it takes before your next telephone call, the time until a radioactive practical decays, the distance between mutations on a DNA strand, and the extreme values of annual snowfall or rainfall; consequently, has many applications in reliability systems. This paper considers an estimation problem of stress-strength model with two parameter negative parameter exponential distribution. We introduce a maximum penalized likelihood method, Bayes estimator using Lindley approximation to estimate stress-strength model and compare the proposed estimators with regular maximum likelihood estimator for complete data. We also introduce a maximum penalized likelihood method, Bayes estimator using a Markov chain Mote Carlo technique for incomplete data. A Monte Carlo simulation study is performed to compare stress-strength model estimates. Real data is used as a practical application of the proposed model.

• 대한전기학회논문지:전력기술부문A
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• 제53권5호
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• pp.296-301
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• 2004

The Available Transfer Capability (ATC) is defined as the measure of the transfer capability remaining in the physical transmission network for further commercial activity above already committed uses. Available Transfer Capability (ATC) calculation is a complicated task, which involves the determination I of total transfer capability (TTC), transmission reliability margin (TRM) and capability benefit margin (CBM). As the electrical power industry is restructured and the electrical power exchange is updated per hour, it is important to accurately and rapidly quantify the available transfer capability (ATC) of the transmission system. In ATC calculation,. the existing CPF method is accurate but it has long calculation time. On the contrary, the method using PTDF is fast but it has relatively a considerable error. This paper proposed QFA method, which can reduce calculation time comparing with CPF method and has few errors in ATC calculation. It proved that the method can calculate ATC more fast and accurately in case study using IEEE 24 bus RTS.

• 산업공학
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• 제22권3호
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• pp.214-222
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• 2009

In the early design stage, system reliability must be estimated from life testing data at the component level. Previously, a point estimate of system reliability was obtained from the unbiased estimate of the component reliability after assuming that the number of failed components for a given time followed a binomial distribution. For deriving the confidence interval of system reliability, either the lognormal distribution or the normal approximation of the binomial distribution was assumed for the estimator of system reliability. In this paper, a new estimator is used for the component level reliability, which is biased but has a smaller mean square error than the previous one. We propose to use the beta distribution rather than the lognormal or approximated normal distribution for developing the confidence interval of the system reliability. A numerical example based on Monte Carlo simulation illustrates advantages of the proposed approach over the previous approach.

• International Journal of Aeronautical and Space Sciences
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• 제16권4호
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• pp.510-519
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• 2015

Concerning the issue of high-dimensions, hybrid uncertainties of randomness and intervals including implicit and highly nonlinear limit state function, reliability analysis based on the hybrid uncertainty reliability mode combining with back propagation neural network (HU-BP neural network) is proposed in this paper. Random variables and interval variables are as input layer of the neural network, after the training and approximation of the neural network, the response variables are obtained through the output layer. Reliability index is calculated by solving the optimization model of the most probable point (MPP) searching in the limit state band. Two numerical cases are used to demonstrate the method proposed in this paper, and finally the method is employed to solving an engineering problem of the aerospace friction plate. For this high nonlinear, small failure probability problem with interval variables, this method could achieve a good analysis result.

• 대한토목학회논문집
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• 제29권1A호
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• pp.45-52
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• 2009

기존의 구조물의 설계에서는 안전성 및 경제성 등을 향상시키기 위해서 시방서에 명시된 설계지침을 제약조건으로 하여 확정론적 최적설계를 수행하는 것이 일반적이다. 하지만, 구조물의 설계에는 본질적으로 재료성질, 작용하중 및 시공오차 등의 불확실성이 내포되어 있으며, 이러한 불확실성과 경제성을 동시에 고려한 설계가 보다 더 합리적인 설계라 할 수 있다. 기존의 확정론적 최적설계에서는 이러한 불확실성을 고려하기 위하여 결정론적인 안전율을 도입하여 설계하지만, 이러한 경우 각 한계상태 및 파괴모드에 대한 일관된 안전성 및 신뢰도 수준을 확보하지 못한다. 최근에 이러한 불확실성 및 경제성을 동시에 고려하는 신뢰도 기반 최적설계에 대한 연구가 수행되고 있다. 신뢰도 기반 최적설계는 확률구속조건을 평가하는 방법에 따라 RIA(reliability index approach) 및 PMA(performance measure approach)로 구분된다. 일반적으로 PMA가 RIA 보다 안정성 및 효율성 측면에서 더 우수하다는 비교연구가 수행된 바 있다. 하지만 아직도 대형구조해석을 필요로 하는 경우에는 계산비용이 과다하여 최적설계가 불가능하므로 보다 개선된 신뢰도 기반 최적설계 알고리즘이 필요하다고 할 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 계산비용을 줄이면서도 안정적으로 수렴하는 개선된 신뢰도 기반 최적설계 알고리즘을 제안한다. PMA에 적합한 응답면 기법을 개발하였으며, 한계상태식의 근사는 이동최소자승근사법을 사용하였다. 이로부터 더 적은 표본점의 추출만으로 더욱더 정확한 응답면 함수를 얻게 되어 정확도 및 효율성을 개선할 수 있었다. 수학적 문제 및 10-bar truss 문제에 대하여 제안된 방법을 적용한 결과, 수렴성 및 효율성 측면에서 우수한 성능을 보여줌을 확인하였다.

• International Journal of Reliability and Applications
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• 제2권3호
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• pp.209-240
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• 2001

Computer-based simulation and analysis is used extensively in engineering for a variety of tasks. Despite the steady and continuing growth of computing power and speed, the computational cost of complex high-fidelity engineering analyses and simulations limit their use in important areas like design optimization and reliability analysis. Statistical approximation techniques such as design of experiments and response surface methodology are becoming widely used in engineering to minimize the computational expense of running such computer analyses and circumvent many of these limitations. In this paper, we compare and contrast five experimental design types and four approximation model types in terms of their capability to generate accurate approximations for two engineering applications with typical engineering behaviors and a wide range of nonlinearity. The first example involves the analysis of a two-member frame that has three input variables and three responses of interest. The second example simulates the roll-over potential of a semi-tractor-trailer for different combinations of input variables and braking and steering levels. Detailed error analysis reveals that uniform designs provide good sampling for generating accurate approximations using different sample sizes while kriging models provide accurate approximations that are robust for use with a variety of experimental designs and sample sizes.

• 한국항공우주학회지
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• 제34권7호
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• pp.18-27
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• 2006

일반적인 신뢰성 최적 설계는 결정론적 최적 설계에 비해 매우 많은 계산비용이 필요하므로 공력 형상 최적화와 같은 큰 문제에 직접 적용하기는 매우 어렵다. 본 연구에서는 이러한 한계를 극복하기 위하여 이점 근사화 기법과 adjoint 민감도 해석 기법을 결합한 효율적인 신뢰성 설계 과정을 제안한다. 이 방법은 계산비용은 결정론적 방법과 거의 동일하지만 계산 결과에 있어서는 기존의 신뢰성 설계 기법과 유사한 결과를 얻을 수 있다. 이를 이용하여 3차원 공력 형상 최적 설계를 매우 효율적으로 수행할 수 있었다.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• 제34권6호
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• pp.779-799
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• 2010

In order to consider high-order effects on the actual limit state function, a new response surface method is proposed for structural reliability analysis by the use of high-order approximation concept in this study. Hermite polynomials are used to determine the highest orders of input random variables, and the sampling points for the determination of highest orders are located on Gaussian points of Gauss-Hermite integration. The cross terms between two random variables, only in case that their corresponding percent contributions to the total variation of limit state function are significant, will be added to the response surface function to improve the approximation accuracy. As a result, significant reduction in computational cost is achieved with this strategy. Due to the addition of cross terms, the additional sampling points, laid on two-dimensional Gaussian points off axis on the plane of two significant variables, are required to determine the coefficients of the approximated limit state function. All available sampling points are employed to construct the final response surface function. Then, Monte Carlo Simulation is carried out on the final approximation response surface function to estimate the failure probability. Due to the use of high order polynomial, the proposed method is more accurate than the traditional second-order or linear response surface method. It also provides much more efficient solutions than the available high-order response surface method with less loss in accuracy. The efficiency and the accuracy of the proposed method compared with those of various response surface methods available are illustrated by five numerical examples.