• 한국IT서비스학회지
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• 제7권3호
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• pp.129-144
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• 2008

The uncertainty of software projects makes a big gap between the initial schedule/expense and the final one. Moreover, it is difficult for a project manager to reschedule and re-budget for reflecting the effects of changes in the software development. In this paper, we suggest EVM (Earned Value Management) to control the schedule and the expenses of an on-going software development project. In order to apply EVM to a software project, we consider turnkey contracts and propose the way to calculate the earned value for the software development. Finally, we illustrate our method with the case of N-company. We expect our EVM help to analyze and to predict the final schedule and the expense of a software development project.

• 전기학회논문지
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• 제60권1호
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• pp.32-35
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• 2011

The economic value of a wind farm project is influenced by various risk factors such as wind power output and electricity market price. In particular, there is uncertainty in the economic evaluation of a wind farm project due to uncertain wind power outputs, which are fluctuated by weather factors such as wind speed, and volatile electricity market prices. This paper presents a systematic method to assess the economic value and payback period of a wind farm project using Least Square Monte-Carlo (LSMC) simulation. Numerical example is presented to validate the effectiveness of the proposed economic assessment method for a wind farm project.

• 한국건축시공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국건축시공학회 2009년도 춘계 학술논문 발표대회 학계
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• pp.203-207
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• 2009

These days Construction Industry is one of the major industry in public project and it has many problems. And Construction Industry highly respond to a chage of IT, politics, economy, domestic and international situation. And it causes an uncertainty in Korea economy. The goal of this paper is showing the efficiency application of BIM in Public Project. And this paper follow three steps. First, these day's trend of BIM and delivery method are researched. Second, major factors are thrived to appreciating BIM Third, delivery method based on BIM is proposed. Major factors of delivery method are researched to make guide line of delivery method in public project in the future.

• 국제학술발표논문집
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• The 6th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• pp.169-173
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• 2015

The linear scheduling method or line-of-balance (LOB) is a popular choice for projects that involve repetitive tasks during project execution. The method, however, produces deterministic schedule that does not convey a range of potential project outcomes under uncertainty. This results from the fact the basic scheduling parameters such as crew production rates are estimated to be deterministic based on single-point value inputs. The current linear scheduling technique, therefore, lacks the capability of reflecting the fluctuating nature of the project operation. In this paper the authors address the issue of how the variability of operation and production rates affects schedule outcomes and show a more realistic description of what might be a realistic picture of typical projects. The authors provide a solution by providing a more effective and comprehensive way of incorporating the crew performance variability using a Monte Carlo simulation technique. The simulation outcomes are discussed in terms of how this stochastic approach can overcome the shortcomings of the conventional linear scheduling technique and provide optimum schedule solutions.

• Ocean and Polar Research
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• 제38권3호
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• pp.247-257
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• 2016

The inter-comparison project for seawater salinity measurements, in which 25 laboratories from 16 countries took part, was conducted by JCOMM (Joint WMO/IOC Technical Commission for Oceanography and Marine Meteorology) for the first time in 2014. Two seawater samples of different salinity values ranging from 30-35 and 20-25 for Sample A and Sample B respectively and which had sufficient homogeneity and stability were distributed to all participants. Participants measured the salinity in their own laboratories at least 3 times and reported the results. Statistical treatments were applied to the results to assess discrepancies among laboratories. 20 out of the 25 laboratories used laboratory salinometers and statistics for this group were denoted as belonging to group ${\alpha}$; while 5 out of the 25 laboratories used hand-held measuring instruments and statistics for this group were denoted as belonging to group ${\beta}$. Bias described as discrepancy among laboratories in group ${\alpha}$ was within ${\pm}0.001$ and expanded uncertainty (k = 2) was in the vicinity of 0.002. The bias and the uncertainty of Korea Institute of Ocean Science and Technology (KIOST), in group ${\alpha}$, were 0.000 and 0.002, respectively. The biases of group ${\beta}$ were greater than group ${\alpha}$ because of constraints related to instrument accuracy. Biases from 3 laboratories in group ${\beta}$ exceed the accuracy specification of the corresponding instruments. Considering that the uncertainty of Standard Seawater (SSW) is of the order 0.001 to 0.002, the inter-comparison results show that 16 laboratories among the 25 laboratories made high quality measurements, largely indistinguishable from one another.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제46권4호
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• pp.481-488
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• 2014

An analysis of the uncertainty quantification related to LBLOCA using the Monte-Carlo calculation has been performed and compared with the tolerance level determined by the Wilks' formula. The uncertainty range and distribution of each input parameter associated with the LOCA phenomena were determined based on previous PIRT results and documentation during the BEMUSE project. Calulations were conducted on 3,500 cases within a 2-week CPU time on a 14-PC cluster system. The Monte-Carlo exercise shows that the 95% upper limit PCT value can be obtained well, with a 95% confidence level using the Wilks' formula, although we have to endure a 5% risk of PCT under-prediction. The results also show that the statistical fluctuation of the limit value using Wilks' first-order is as large as the uncertainty value itself. It is therefore desirable to increase the order of the Wilks' formula to be higher than the second-order to estimate the reliable safety margin of the design features. It is also shown that, with its ever increasing computational capability, the Monte-Carlo method is accessible for a nuclear power plant safety analysis within a realistic time frame.

• 시스템엔지니어링학술지
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• 제11권1호
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• pp.41-48
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• 2015

It is generally recommended to use EVM as an efficient means for measuring project performance and progress so that the EVMS user could manage his project successfully. In spite of it's favorable intention, most project participants think it as a heavy load or a sub practiced job with low responsibility. Especially in a weapon system R&D project, the manager should consider a possibility to change plans in the middle of the project because of uncertainty coming from properties of the R&D project. Even though there are lots of variables triggering unpredictable troubles in EVM application, EVM still could be a valuable project health indicator. In this paper we introduce a case study of EVM application for weapon system development project. Furthermore, we suggest several solutions for the issues occurring in utilizing EVM.

• 산업경영시스템학회지
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• 제34권2호
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• pp.19-29
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• 2011

The uncertainty of a project generates risks hindering the goal achievement of the project, and the risks affect the success or failure of the project significantly. Risk management, a part of the project management, includes various processes, and there are also various tools or techniques applicable to that. In an organization, the application of project management develops gradually from low to high maturity, and the organization should choose and implement a method of application proper for the level of its maturity. This article suggests a method to reduce inefficiency of the management and how to apply risk management by levels of maturity for easier application. For this, the stages of project management maturity levels were divided into the introduction, development, and maturity step, and methods of risk management suitable for each stage were applied. And methods of risk management that need to be applied by the levels of project maturity are divided into three factors : risk management processes, risk management tools and techniques, and risk management standards and templates. It is expected to be favorable approaches for the application of risk management in an organization to divide those factors into more concrete processes, tools, techniques, and standards and apply them by the levels of management maturity.

• 한국건설관리학회논문집
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• 제8권4호
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• pp.203-213
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• 2007

In the past, several construction projects have exceeded their schedule resulting in financial losses to the owners; at present there are very few methods available to accurately forecast the completion date of a project. These nay be because of unforeseen outcomes that cannot be accounted for earlier and because of deficiency of proper tools to forecast completion date of said project. To overcome these difficulties, project managers may need a tool to predict the completion date at the early stage of project development. Bayesian Inference introduced in this paper is one such tool that can be employed to forecast project progress at all construction stages. Using this inference, project managers can combine an initially planned project progress (growth curve) with reported information from ongoing projects during the development, and in addition, dynamically revise this initial plan and quantify the uncertainty of completion date. This study introduces a theoretical model and proposes a mathematically information-based framework to forecast a project completion date that corresponds with the actual progress data and to monitor the modified uncertainties using Bayesian Inference.

• 시스템엔지니어링학술지
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• 제13권2호
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• pp.34-41
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• 2017

The Pyro project, one of the large national R&D project to construct Korea Advanced Pyroprocessing Facility (KAPF), which has many goals such as development of pyro technology and process equipment, design of equipment and facility, construction, and test operation, is now under research and development. To reduce uncertainty and risk of such complex project, the technical management processes in systems engineering standards and NASA handbook were reviewed, and then the ten common technical management processes were selected for the large national R&D project to meet its goal successfully. And the essential technical management processes were finally suggested for Pyro project in consideration of current situation of the project.