• 한국신재생에너지학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2005.06a
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• pp.42-46
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• 2005

In spite of fast growing of prediction codes, there is still not negligible uncertainty in their results. This uncertainty affects on the turbine structural design and power production prediction. With the growing size of wind turbine, reducing this uncertainty is becoming one of critical issues for high performance and efficient wind turbine design. In this respect, there are international efforts to evaluate and tune prediction codes of wind turbine. As the reference data for this purpose, field test data is not appropriate because of its uncontrollable wind characteristics and its inherent uncertainty. Wind tunnel can provide controllable wind. For this reason, NREL has done the full scale test of the 10m turbine at NASA-Ames. With this reference data, a blind comparison has been done with participation of 18 organizations with 19 modeling tools. The results were not favorable. In Europe, a similar project is going on. Nine organizations from five countries are participating in the MEXICO project to do full scale wind tunnel tests and calculation with prediction codes. In this study. these two projects were reviewed in respect of wind tunnel test and its contribution. As a conclusion, it is suggested that scale model wind tunnel tests can be a complementary tool to calculation codes which were evaluated worse than expected.

• Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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• v.45 no.2
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• pp.247-260
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• 2017

Purpose: The study is aimed to identify the national cultural dimensions that are affecting the quality management (QM) maturity level and the project quality performance, and analyze their relationships. Methods: This study collected the data of QM Maturity level based on Crosby's QM maturity model and the project quality performance using the Iron Triangle (Quality, Time/Schedule and Cost) from the employees who are participating in the ITER Project across the major 8 countries (China, France, Italy, Japan, Korea, Russia, U.K. and U.S.A.). Three research hypotheses are proposed concerning the national cultural dimensions in this study and Hofstede's five cultural dimensions framework are used for the statistical test. Results: The results are two folds in the study: First, there is a significant positive correlation between the QM maturity level and the project quality performance. Second, three cultural dimensions (Collectivism, Large Power Distance and Strong Uncertainty Avoidance) and five cultural dimensions (Collectivism, Large Power Distance, Strong Uncertainty Avoidance, Feminity and Long Term Orientation) have a positive impact on the QM maturity level and the project quality performance respectively. Conclusion: From the results, the understanding and consideration of the culture difference among the countries participating International Collaboration R&D project are recommended.

• Journal of Information Technology Services
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• v.1 no.1
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• pp.45-55
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• 2002

This paper suggests a new approach to IT project management based on a regular project meeting results to consider the recent project environment. The greater part of recent IT projects are related to e-business transformation. Transforming to e-business is a new problem very different from those they have been worked, in several point of views. Under e-business era, therefore any IT project is being implemented in more complex, dynamic and uncertain environment than traditional. That is, project leaders must consider more factors to control projects including resources, quality, risks, and technologies, and human resources. The project organizations and software corporations thus need to develop and establish new concepts or methodologies to manage e-business projects. In this point of view, an entropy model in this study is introduced for estimating and managing the uncertainty in project control using multi-attributes of project meeting. This paper proposes a new frame work based on entropy model using project meeting results to consider eIT project environment with a small pilot study.

• Journal of Wetlands Research
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• v.5 no.1
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• pp.41-52
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• 2003

The flood damage reduction studies have been performed by the channel improvement plan and the levee has mainly constructed with the freeboard concept. However, the freeboard concept might be an inappropriate choice as a safety factor of the levee because many uncertainties are involved in the procedure of the channel improvement plan studies. So, we considered the uncertainties In the discharge-probability, stage-discharge, and stage-damage functions and estimate the expected annual damage. The Monte Carlo technique for uncertainty analysis is used. As our results, the expected annual damage with uncertainty shows the larger value than without uncertainty. Since the expected annual damage with uncertainty already considers the safety factor it is the proper result. However, the expected annual damage without uncertainty does not consider the safety factor yet. Thus, if the expected annual damage without uncertainty considers the freeboard concept, it could be compared with the expected annual damage with uncertainty for the evaluation of the overestimation or underestimation of the levee construction.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.9 no.1
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• pp.1-11
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• 2022

The study incorporates model uncertainty into the private equity (PE) valuation model (SWY model) (Sorensen et al., 2014) to evaluate how model uncertainty distorts the leverage and valuations of PE funds. This study applies a continuous-time model to PE project valuation, modeling the LPs' goal as multiplier preferences provided by Anderson et al. (2003), and assuming that LPs' aversion to model uncertainty causes endogenous belief distortions with entropy as a measure of model discrepancies. Concerns regarding model uncertainty, according to the theoretical model, have an unclear effect on LPs' risk attitude and GPs' decision, which is based on the value of the PE asset. It also demonstrates that model uncertainty lowers the certainty-equivalent valuation of the LPs. Finally, we compare the outcomes of the Full-spanning risk model with the Non-spanned risk model, and they match the intuitive economic reasoning. The most important implication is that model uncertainty will have negative effects on the LPs' certainty-equivalent valuation but has ambiguous effects on the portfolio allocation choice of liquid wealth. Our works contribute to two literature streams. The first is the literature that models the PE funds. The second is the literature introduces model uncertainty into standard finance models.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.48 no.10
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• pp.817-830
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• 2015

This study performed prediction of extreme rainfall uncertainty and its frequency analysis based on climate change scenarios by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) for the selected nine-General Circulation Models (GCMs) in the near future (2011-2040) over the Korean Peninsula (KP). We analysed uncertainty of scenarios by multiple model ensemble (MME) technique using non-parametric quantile mapping method and bias correction method in the basin scale of the KP. During the near future, the extreme rainfall shows a significant gradually increasing tendency with the annual variability and uncertainty of extreme ainfall in the RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios. In addition to the probability rainfall frequency (such as 50 and 100-year return periods) has increased by 4.2% to 10.9% during the near future in 2040. Therefore, in the longer-term water resources master plan, based on the various climate change scenarios (such as CMIP5 GCMs) and its uncertainty can be considered for utilizing of the support tool for decision-makers in water-related disasters management.

• International conference on construction engineering and project management
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• 2015.10a
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• pp.174-178
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• 2015

This paper presents a new method for forecasting construction project cost and time at completion or at any intermediate time horizon of the project duration. The method is designed to overcome identified limitations of current applications of earned value method in forecasting project cost and time. The proposed method usesfuzzy set theory to model uncertainties associated with project performance and it integrates the earned value technique and the contractors' judgement. The fuzzy set theory is applied as an alternative approach to deterministic and probabilistic methods. Using fuzzy set theory allows contractors to: (1) perform risk analysis for different scenarios of project performance indices, and (2) perform different scenarios expressing vagueness and imprecision of forecasted project cost and time using a set of measures and indices. Unlike the current applications of Earned Value Method(EVM), The proposed method has a numberof interesting features: (1) integrating contractors' judgement in forecasting project performance; (2) enabling contractors to evaluate the risk associated with cost overrun in much simpler method comparing with that of simulation, and (3) accounting for uncertainties involved in the forecasting project cost.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.27 no.4
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• pp.639-666
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• 2018

This paper analyses the investment options of groundwater development project under water price uncertainty. The optimal investment threshold price which trigger the investment are calibrated base on monopolistic real options model. Stochastic dynamic model is set to reflect the uncertainty of water price which follows the GBM (Geometric Brownian Motion) process. Our finding from non-cooperative investment decision model is that uncertainty of water price could deter the groundwater investment by considering the existence of option values. For policy markers, it is easy to manage 'charges for utilization of groundwater' rather than 'performance guarantee ratio' when managing groundwater investment with pricing policy. And it is necessary to make comprehensive and well-designed policies considering the characteristics of regional groundwater reservoir and groundwater developers.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.13 no.10
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• pp.565-573
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• 2013

Uncertainty in large-scale tourism development is the main reason of the delay on the project. The purpose of this study is to identify the status and effect of this large-scale tourism development project. Huge amount of funds has to be invested prior to the development of this project and with high uncertainty of successful development, the procedure is the most important factor of this project. Therefore, under the basis of these assumptions, we operated a PLS regression analysis to see any factors that has influence during the procedure of the project. The result of the PLS regression analysis resulted that among all of the factors, the participation and role of regional community is the highest priority. In order to lead large-scale tourism development to success is to listen to the ideas of various project-related personnels and form a public - private partnership for evaluation of the project.

• Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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• v.17 no.4
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• pp.313-319
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• 2001

The development of ozone SRP (Standard Reference Photometer) designated as a G-7 project by the Korean Ministry of Environment began 1997 and is now nearly completed. With the completion of the ozone SRP we will not only acquire a qualification to participate in the international ozone calibration system but also enhance calibration credibility of ozone similarly to that of other ambient air pollution monitors. As the ozone SRP uses highly cleaned blank air that can be distinguished from general ozone analyzer, it is possible to reduce errors associated with the determination of ozone via elongation of the absorption length as long as 1 meter In addition, gas chopping method hat been adopted to cut down interference of other substances and time drift. Furthermore, the system has also been modified to minimize the strayed ultra-violet noise along the light path. In this paper, a new method for uncertainty evaluation has been introduced, which is guided by the ISO (International Standard Organization) GUM (Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement) through assessments of the uncertainty type B (that was impossible to estimate before) as well as the uncertainty type A (based on statistics).