• 제목/요약/키워드: project uncertainty

검색결과 287건 처리시간 0.022초

Evaluation of PNL30-35 Critical Experiments on ICSBEP

  • Joo, Hyung-Kook;Kim, Young-Jin;Sohn, Dong-Seong;J. Blair Briggs
    • 한국원자력학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국원자력학회 1997년도 춘계학술발표회논문집(1)
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    • pp.39-44
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    • 1997
  • The International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP) is under way for the purpose identifying, evaluating, and compiling benchmark critical experiment data into a standardized format that allows criticality analysts to easily use the data to validate calculational methods and cross sections. As part of this activity, PNL30-35 experiments, which had been adopted as benchmark problems by CSEWG in 1970s, were reevaluated, which results in some additions and modifications: changes in fuel number density, modification to the experimental keff, modifications to the soluble boron concentration for PNL-31, and addition of an uncertainty in the benchmark-model k$_{eff}$./.

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원자력발전소 인간신뢰도 분석의 한계점 분석과 차세대 방법을 위한 요건 개발 (Analysis of Limitations on Human Reliability Analysis in Nuclear Power Plants and Development of Requirements for an Advanced Method)

  • 정원대;김재환;장승철;하재주
    • 한국안전학회지
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    • 제14권2호
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    • pp.178-191
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    • 1999
  • More than twenty methods were suggested for Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) in the field of safety analysis for Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs). However, there is still a high uncertainty on the analysis and a difficulty in performing HRA. New methods and approaches are under studying to overcome such limitations of current HRA. This paper presents some results of study to analysis limitations of current HRA in viewpoint of user, i.e., HRA analyst. The limitation analysis was based on 89 human error events modeled in a Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) project for NPPs in Korea. Total 17 specific limitations were identified and categorized into seven groups. Important analysis has also been undertaken to assess the order of priority among those limitations. Finally, seven requirements with priority ranking were generated for an advanced framework and methodology of HRA.

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전통 복식의 세계화에 대한 연구 - 근대성, 탈근대성과 관련하여 - (The Study on Globalization of Traditional Costume - Connection With Modernity and Post-Modernity -)

  • 임영자;유순례
    • 한국의상디자인학회지
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    • 제3권1호
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    • pp.117-127
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    • 2001
  • In the 1980's discuss in the postmodernism and at the 1990's that is globalization. Globalization is the compression of time and space. That is the products of modernism and postmodernism. Global trends are the multiculturalism, localism, tribuism, etc. These trends have a important effect modern fashion. 20th fashion have a modernity -variation, functionalism and popularity, postmodernity-uncertainty, multiculturalism, post structuralism, etc. If Korean fashion have the globality, open to the world other country and culture, deep study of that, and view point of intercultureity. This Study Suggest to achieve globalize of Korean costume. 1. Plon up base on the scholastic study of giobalization. 2. Promote global project of Korean collection. 3. Collect of ethnic, culture, information of fashion America, Europe, etc. and make high up our a sense of disorimination. 4. Manifold studing abroad 5. Strergthening of globalization and ethnic curriculum on Educational course

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Application of Parameters-Free Adaptive Clonal Selection in Optimization of Construction Site Utilization Planning

  • Wang, Xi;Deshpande, Abhijeet S.;Dadi, Gabriel B.
    • Journal of Construction Engineering and Project Management
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    • 제7권2호
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 2017
  • The Clonal Selection Algorithm (CSA) is an algorithm inspired by the human immune system mechanism. In CSA, several parameters needs to be optimized by large amount of sensitivity analysis for the optimal results. They limit the accuracy of the results due to the uncertainty and subjectivity. Adaptive Clonal Selection (ACS), a modified version of CSA, is developed as an algorithm without controls by pre-defined parameters in terms of selection process and mutation strength. In this paper, we discuss the ACS in detail and present its implementation in construction site utilization planning (CSUP). When applied to a developed model published in research literature, it proves that the ACS are capable of searching the optimal layout of temporary facilities on construction site based on the result of objective function, especially when the parameterization process is considered. Although the ACS still needs some improvements, obtaining a promising result when working on a same case study computed by Genetic Algorithm and Electimze algorithm prove its potential in solving more complex construction optimization problems in the future.

Elaboration of Real Options Model and the Adequacy of Volatility

  • Sung, Tae-Eung;Park, Hyun-Woo
    • Asian Journal of Innovation and Policy
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    • 제6권2호
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    • pp.225-244
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    • 2017
  • When evaluating the economic value of technology or business project, we need to consider the period and cost for commercialization. Since the discounted cash flow (DCF) method has limitations in that it can not consider consecutive investment or does not reflect the probabilistic property of commercialization cost, we often take it desirable to apply the concept of real options with key metrics of underlying asset value, commercialization cost, and volatility, while regarding the value of technology and investment as the opportunity value. We at this moment provide more elaborated real options model with the effective region of volatility, which reflects the uncertainty in the option pricing model (OPM).

Probabilistic real-time updating for geotechnical properties evaluation

  • Ng, Iok-Tong;Yuen, Ka-Veng;Dong, Le
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • 제54권2호
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    • pp.363-378
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    • 2015
  • Estimation of geotechnical properties is an essential but challenging task since they are major components governing the safety and reliability of the entire structural system. However, due to time and budget constraints, reliable geotechnical properties estimation using traditional site characterization approach is difficult. In view of this, an alternative efficient and cost effective approach to address the overall uncertainty is necessary to facilitate an economical, safe and reliable geotechnical design. In this paper a probabilistic approach is proposed for real-time updating by incorporating new geotechnical information from the underlying project site. The updated model obtained from the proposed method is advantageous because it incorporates information from both existing database and the site of concern. An application using real data from a site in Hong Kong will be presented to demonstrate the proposed method.

건축 프로젝트 개산견적 신뢰도에 영향을 미치는 주요 인자에 관한 연구 (A Study on the Key Factors Influencing the Reliability of Conceptual cost estimates in Building Construction Projects)

  • 안성훈;박우열
    • 한국건축시공학회지
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    • 제8권4호
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    • pp.53-59
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    • 2008
  • Cost estimates are very important to their decision-making in the early stages of a construction project. So Clients have wanted not only to know the results of conceptual cost estimates but also to assess their quality Conceptual cost estimates process is very complex process, so the results of cost estimates are influenced by various factors. So the purpose of this study is to reveal the key factors which influence the reliability of conceptual cost estimates in building construction projects. The analytic hierarchy process is used to determine the relative important weights of elements influencing the conceptual cost estimates. And factor analysis is used to reveal the key factors from the elements that influence the conceptual cost estimates. The results showed that the key factors is an experience level, available data level, level of will for winning the bid, difficulty level of conceptual cost estimate, uncertainty level.

불확실성과 소프트웨어 프로젝트 성과에 대한 국가간 비교연구 (A Cross-National Comparison of Uncertainty Profile and Software Project Performance)

  • 김기윤;나관식;최광돈
    • 한국IT서비스학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국IT서비스학회 2002년도 추계학술대회
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    • pp.279-285
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    • 2002
  • 다양한 소프트웨어개발 위험관리 분야의 연구들 중, 미국의 소프트웨어 회사들을 대상으로 한 Nidumolu의 논문에서는 표준화와 요구사항 불확실성이 잔여성과위험이라는 매개 변수를 통해서, 소프트웨어 개발프로세스와 제품 성과에 영향을 미친다는 결과를 발표하였다. 본 연구에서는 먼저, 개발도상국인 우리나라에서도 이러한 모형이 적용될 수 있는 지를 검정하였는데, 결론적으로 잔여성과 위험이라는 매개변수는 모형에서 의미가 없는 것으로 나타났다. 이는 우리나라 소프트웨어 업체의 경우 성숙도가 상대적으로 낮아서, 프로젝트 관리자와 같은 개인의 능력에 성과가 영향을 받는 때문인 것으로 보인다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 이러한 차이의 원인에 대해서 논의하고, 나아가서 우리나라의 기업 환경에 적합한 새로운 모형을 제시하고자 한다.

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전략적 유연성을 고려한 연구개발사업의 경제성 평가: 이론 및 사례 분석 (Economic Valuation of R&D Programs with Strategic Flexibility)

  • 황석원;정종욱
    • 기술혁신연구
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    • 제14권3호
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    • pp.237-261
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    • 2006
  • Under circumstances with increasing uncertainty, strategic flexibility has become an essential point on which my R&D management system should be based. Unfortunately the present R&D management system for government sponsored R&D programs cannot be said to be so flexible to adapt appropriately to various threatens such as technological failure, a severe change in competition environment, and so on. In this paper a new scheme for R&D planning and economic assessment with strategic flexibility is suggested and applied to a real R&D program. In the newly suggested R&D management system, economic valuation based on real option theory is performed for various alternative scenarios which have different strategic scheme for R&D process each and the result of the assessment is fed back to R&D planning to choose more superior strategic scheme. Introducing strategic flexibility into R&D planning and economic assessment, the value of R&D project could be remarkably enhanced.

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마그네틱 필드를 이용한 배관 두께 측정 방법론 개발 (Development of Methodology to Measure the Thickness of Pipes using Magnetic Field)

  • 김미나;채장범;박일한;김에녹
    • 한국압력기기공학회 논문집
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    • 제6권2호
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    • pp.47-53
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    • 2010
  • In this research project, development of methodology to measure the thickness of pipes in the wide range using magnetic field. The magnetic field spreading in the sensor and the plate was modeled in the cases of the various thicknesses in plate. Based on the analysis, sensors were designed, manufactured and tested to optimize the specifications of the sensor. The sensor can be used in high temperature through calibration. And the uncertainty of the sensor was estimated.

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