• 국제학술발표논문집
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• The 4th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management Organized by the University of New South Wales
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• pp.534-541
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• 2011

Risk evaluation approaches for bidding on international construction projects are typically partitioned into three stages: country selection, project classification, and bid-cost evaluation. However, previous studies are frequently under attack in that they have several crucial limitations: 1) a dearth of studies about country selection risk tailored for the overseas construction market at a corporate level; 2) no consideration of uncertainties for input variable per se; 3) less probabilistic approaches in estimating a range of cost variance; and 4) less inclusion of covariance impacts. This study thus suggests a three-staged risk evaluation model to resolve these inherent problems. In the first stage, a country portfolio model that maximizes the expected construction market growth rate and profit rate while decreasing market uncertainty is formulated using multi-objective genetic analysis. Following this, probabilistic approaches for screening bad projects are suggested through applying various data mining methods such as discriminant logistic regression, neural network, C5.0, and support vector machine. For the last stage, the cost overrun prediction model is simulated for determining a reasonable bid cost, while considering non-parametric distribution, effects of systematic risks, and the firm's specific capability accrued in a given country. Through the three consecutive models, this study verifies that international construction risk can be allocated, reduced, and projected to some degree, thereby contributing to sustaining stable profits and revenues in both the short-term and the long-term perspective.

• 한국신재생에너지학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국신재생에너지학회 2007년도 추계학술대회 논문집
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• pp.357-360
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• 2007

Any investment analysis has to deal with the uncertainty that arises over the course of operating the invested project. When it comes to an wind power, such analysis gets even more complicated, as the wind resource or the current is inherently unstable and unpredictable. Different from predecessors in the field of analyzing wind power economics, this paper proposes a stochastic methodology of analyzing the economic efficiency of an investment in wind power to explicitly address those uncertainties or risks. A probability distribution is assigned to each variable to generate a probability distribution of the economic value of an investment through a Monte-Carlo simulation

• 산업경영시스템학회지
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• 제22권51호
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• pp.63-72
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• 1999

Many firms have applied flexible manufacturing systems as a means of increasing productivity, profitability, and quality. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to develop the more efficient justification model through an analytical scoring model with the quantitative factors, flexibility factors, and safety factors under uncertainty. In this paper, the three factors for properly comparing and evaluating of flexible manufacturing systems are presented. Especially, this paper has emphasized the flexibility and safety factor; the one consists of organization assessment, process treatment function, products and products quantity, useful life assesment, and software function, the other presents risk assesment, Y2K problem, safety device analysis, total productive management system, safety management. Finally, a normalized scoring model by the new flexibility and safety factors can be used in real fields for flexible manufacturing systems project selection under uncertainty.

• 산업경영시스템학회지
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• 제25권6호
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• pp.23-35
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• 2002

The problem of system reliability is very important issue in the digitalized nuclear power plant, because the failure of its system brings about extravagant economic loss, environment destruction, and fatal damage of human. Therefore the purpose of this study has developed the reliability evaluation model through the scoring model by the quantitative and qualitative factors in order to justify the evaluation considering the advanced safety factors in the Advanced Pressurized water Reactor 1400MWe(APR 1400MWe) under uncertainty. Especially, the qualitative factors considering the human, information control, and quality factors for the systematic and rational justification have been closely analyzed. The proposed model can be simply applied in real fields in order to minimize the industrial accidents in the digitalized nuclear power plant.

• 국제학술발표논문집
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• The 3th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• pp.1313-1317
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• 2009

Deflections of Reinforced concrete structures must satisfy the permissible values and it is hard to predict the due to uncertainty of deflection of the reinforced concrete structures. Thus, many researchers have suggested a number of experimental equation of deflection against the uncertainty. In a specification, a procedure to evaluate flexure deflection using effective moment of inertia and moment-curvature relation is suggested. ACI offers a method using effective moment of inertia, which has been developed by Branson. Eurocode 2(EC2) suggests a procedure to evaluate deflection of reinforced concrete structure using moment-curvature relation. In this paper, a series of experiments were conducted on the singly reinforced concrete beams which have the same reinforcement ratio and different concrete strength. Therefore, the effect of the concrete strength on the deflection of the beams was analysed. The deflections obtained from the experiment were compared with the deflections calculated with ACI code and EC2.

• 산업경영시스템학회지
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• 제43권3호
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• pp.216-227
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• 2020

The purpose of this paper is to identify a relative importance and priority of the factors of Competencies of project team member. It aims to present the differential competency factors from a differentiated perspective by applying the Leadership Development Questionnaire, which is the competency dimension required for manager, to team member. (1) Background: The diverse needs of customers and companies, and the uncertainty, complexity, ambiguity, and volatility of the environment surrounding the company in the era of the Fourth Industrial Revolution threaten the survival of company. In this respect, companies should implement the project management approach and strive to increase the capabilities of each team member. (2) Methods: AHP method was used to prioritize which factors were considered more importance level and the gap of relative importance level between project manager group and team members group. (3) Results: In the analysis of the relative importance of the upper class, weights were derived in the order of managerial competence, intellectual competence, and emotional competence. The sub-factor that respondents prioritize was communication as the 1st priority, and it was analyzed in the order of strategic perspective, achieving, critical analysis and judgement, and vision and imagination. There were some differences in the ranking of the relative importance of achieving and vision and imagination attributes between the PM group and TM group, it was analyzed that there was no significant difference overall. (4) Implications: The results of this study confirmed the recognition that team members are required to have the same competencies as the project manager. And based on the priorities of the competencies required of team members, companies are expected to cultivate professional and competent team members, and expand the roles and authority of team members so that they can actively carry out projects.

• 한국건설관리학회논문집
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• 제10권1호
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• pp.91-101
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• 2009

철골구조의 확산과 보편화에 따른 건설산업의 대형화, 복합화 추세에 따라 건설 프로젝트의 수행 과정 중 수반되는 작업지연과 같은 불확실성 리스크 요소는 프로젝트의 공기증가, 비용상승, 품질저하로 이어지며 프로젝트의 성패에 영향을 미치는 중요한 관리요소로 간주되고 있다. 이에 전체 프로젝트의 완성도에 영향을 미치는 불확실성 요소에 관한 체계적인 관리방안이 요구되고 있으며, 건설 프로젝트 수행시 발생가능한 작업지연요인을 분석하고 이를 관리하는 것은 건설사업의 확실성을 높일 뿐만 아니라 경쟁력을 높이는 방법이라 할 수 있다. 이러한 측면에서 작업지연요인의 효율적인 관리를 위해서는 각 항목간 정량적 분석방법에 의한 우선순위를 산정하여 해당 공정별로 중점 관리하는 노력이 필요하다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 철골공사를 대상으로 공정별 작업지연요인을 파악하고, FMEA를 활용한 작업지연요인별 중요도의 정량적 수치화를 통하여 작업지연요인을 효과적으로 제거하고 관리할 수 있도록 공정별 코드화한 중점관리항목을 제시함으로써 효과적 관리 및 작업 지연 예방을 위한 기초적 자료를 제공하고자 하였다.

• Journal of Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• 제5권2호
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• pp.11-15
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• 2015

The Last PlannerSystem (LPS) has been implemented on construction projects to increase work flow reliability, a precondition for project performance againstproductivity and progress targets. The LPS encompasses four tiers of planning processes:master scheduling, phase scheduling, lookahead planning, and commitment / weeklywork planning. This research highlights deficiencies in the current implementation of LPS including poor lookahead planning which results in poor linkage between weeklywork plans and the master schedule. This poor linkage undetermines the ability of theweekly work planning process to select for execution tasks that are critical to projectsuccess. As a result, percent plan complete (PPC) becomes a weak indicator of project progress. The purpose of this research is to improve lookahead planning (the bridgebetween weekly work planning and master scheduling), improve PPC, and improve theselection of tasks that are critical to project success by increasing the link betweenShould, Can, Will, and Did (components of the LPS), thereby rendering PPC a betterindicator of project progress. The research employs the case study research method to describe deficiencies inthe current implementation of the LPS and suggest guidelines for a better application ofLPS in general and lookahead planning in particular. It then introduces an analyticalsimulation model to analyze the lookahead planning process. This is done by examining the impact on PPC of increasing two lookahead planning performance metrics: tasksanticipated (TA) and tasks made ready (TMR). Finally, the research investigates theimportance of the lookahead planning functions: identification and removal ofconstraints, task breakdown, and operations design.The research findings confirm the positive impact of improving lookaheadplanning (i.e., TA and TMR) on PPC. It also recognizes the need to perform lookaheadplanning differently for three types of work involving different levels of uncertainty:stable work, medium uncertainty work, and highly emergent work.The research confirms the LPS rules for practice and specifically the need to planin greater detail as time gets closer to performing the work. It highlights the role of LPSas a production system that incorporates deliberate planning (predetermined andoptimized) and situated planning (flexible and adaptive). Finally, the research presents recommendations for production planningimprovements in three areas: process related, (suggesting guidelines for practice),technical, (highlighting issues with current software programs and advocating theinclusion of collaborative planning capability), and organizational improvements(suggesting transitional steps when applying the LPS).

• 한국건축시공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국건축시공학회 2004년도 학술.기술논문발표회
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• pp.113-117
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• 2004

We need the contingency cost in order to deal with the uncertainty to be accompanied inevitably at the construction and an every kind risk not to forecast in advance. And also the contingency colt needed for the change order and we need it for reduction of the delay and reduce the trouble between owner and constructor. This study, through checking and analyzing the risk factor, in the step of domestic construction, suggests optimal management reserve to specific business about the contract type and the scale. The main results of this research are summarized as follow. First, I investigated the recognition about the contingency cost, grasped the risk to be happened at the construction step and found out the frequency occurrence, through making up question to engineer are carrying out their job in the domestic construction. Second, I computed optimal contingency cost rate by the statistics investigation, and proposed an improvement plan and problem when compute a contingency cost.

• 상하수도학회지
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• 제20권1호
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• pp.104-114
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• 2006

Recently, the PPP (Public-Private-Participate) program on water and wastewater services in Korea has been under an active debate. However, the controversy has reached the limits of getting more valuable implications from past foreign experience beyond conceptual and/or qualitative case studies. This paper analyze scientifically and quantitatively the Buenos Aires Water Concession Project focused on propriety of the contract using system dynamics modeling. The results show that Buenos Aires's Project has several problems in the contract phase even though Argentina government spent much time to design it. Analysis results suggest that estimation of K factor considering delay effect and future uncertainty, reduction of the first fixed terms of contract, etc., are needed for a proper contract.