• International conference on construction engineering and project management
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• 2007.03a
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• pp.563-572
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• 2007

Transportation infrastructure is critical to economic growth of a country such as China. Careful evaluation of investments in traffic infrastructure projects is therefore pertinent. As traditional evaluation methods do not consider the uncertainty of future cash flows and mobility during project execution, the real option approach is gradually gaining recognition in the context of valuing construction and infrastructure projects. However, many of the cases only evaluate individual options separately although multiple options often exist in a typical large infrastructure project. Using a highway project in China as a case study, this paper first evaluates a deferment option and a growth option embedded in the project. Subsequently, the values are combined using the fuzzy analytical hierarchy process. It is found that the combined value is less than the sum of the two option values. This finding is consistent with the theoretical observations given in past real option literature despite the use of a different approach.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.8 no.5
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• pp.191-200
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• 2007

This paper introduces a tool for predicting potential cost overrun during project execution and for quantifying the uncertainty on the expected project cost, which is occasionally changed by the unknown effects resulted from project's complications and unforeseen environments. The model proposed in this stuff is useful in diagnosing cost performance as a project progresses and in monitoring the changes of the uncertainty as indicators for a warning signal. This model is intended for the use by project managers who forecast the change of the uncertainty and its magnitude. The paper presents a mathematical approach for modifying the costs of incomplete work packages and project cost, and quantifying reduced uncertainties at a consistent confidence level as actual cost information of an ongoing project is obtained. Furthermore, this approach addresses the effects of actual informed data of completed work packages on the re-estimates of incomplete work packages and describes the impacts on the variation of the uncertainty for the expected project cost incorporating Multivariate Probabilistic Analysis (MPA) and Bayes' Theorem. For the illustration purpose, the Introduced model has employed an example construction project. The results are analyzed to demonstrate the use of the model and illustrate its capabilities.

• Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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• 1994.04a
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• pp.410-420
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• 1994

In many project-oriented production systems, e.g., shipyards or large-scale steel products manufacturing, resource loading by an activity is flexible, and the activity duration is a function of resource allocation. For example, if one doubles the size of the crew assigned to perform an activity, it may be feasible to complete the activity in half the duration. Such flexibility has been modeled by Weglarz [131 and by Leachman, Dincerler, and Kim [7] in extended formulations of the resource-constrained project scheduling problem. This paper presents a new algorithmic approach to the problem that combines the ideas proposed by the aforementioned authors. The method we propose involves a two-step approach: (1) solve the resource-constrained scheduling problem using a heuristic, and (2) using this schedule as an initial feasible solution, find improved resource allocations by solving a linear programming model. We provide computational results indicating the superiority of this approach to previous methodology for the resource-constrained scheduling problem. Extensions to the model to admit overlap relationships of the activities also are presented.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.39 no.1
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• pp.9-16
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• 2016

The project schedule risk in the engineering and facility construction industry is increasingly considered as important management factor because the risks in terms of schedule or deadline may significantly affect the project cost. Especially, the project-based operating companies attempt to find the best estimate of the project completion time for use at their proposals, and therefore, usually have much interest in accurate estimation of the duration of the projects. In general, the management of projects schedule risk is achieved by modeling project schedule with PERT/CPM techniques, and then performing risk assessment with simulation such as Monte-Carlo simulation method. However, since these approaches require the accumulated executional data, which are not usually available in project-based operating company, and, further, they cannot reflect various schedule constraints, which usually are met during the project execution, the project managers have difficulty in preparing for the project risks in advance of their occurrence in the project execution. As these constraints may affect time and cost which role as the crucial evaluation factors to the quality of the project result, they must be identified and described in advance of their occurrence in the project management. This paper proposes a Bayesian Net based methodology for estimating project schedule risk by identifying and enforcing the project risks and its response plan which may occur in storage tank engineering and construction project environment. First, we translated the schedule network with the project risks and its response plan into Bayesian Net. Second, we analyzed the integrated Bayesian Net and suggested an estimate of project schedule risk with simulation approach. Finally, we applied our approach to a storage tank construction project to validate its feasibility.

• Proceedings of the Korea Database Society Conference
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• 1999.06a
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• pp.403-413
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• 1999

Today's businesses are experiencing intensive global competition and the most accelerating pace of change ever. Competitors have sprung up that were not even on the business's radar. This environment impacts all decisions and strategies as business try to dominate their market or their industry merely to survive. So recently most of organizations are considering on building the data warehouse system to pursuit the business intelligence. We need the proper model to guide the approach to plan building data warehouse system when we want to plan it in considering the organizational status. Therefore we suggest a model to decide the approach to build data warehouse considering the project's environmental factors. First we review Ronald S. Swift(1998)'s five environmental factors that we have to consider when planing to build data warehouse. Then we propose a model to decide DW approach by the degree of those factors to be measured. DW approaches in this model are classified in conservative approach, technological approach, increasing approach. enterprise- wide approach, and ideal approach.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.7 no.4 s.32
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• pp.177-183
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• 2006

Risk-based estimation has been successfully introduced into the construction industry. By incorporating historical data associated with probability analysis, risk-based estimate is an effective decision support aid in considering whether to launch a particular project. The industry challenges, however, especially related with management issues, such as labor shortage, wage growth, and supply chain complexity, have often resulted in poor cost performance. The insufficient assessing the project characteristics (i.e., resource availability, project complexity, and project delivery method) can be the main reasons in the poor cost performance. Because the accuracy level of cost performance prediction can be enhanced by extensive evaluation of the subject project characteristics, a new approach for predicting cost performance in an earlier stage of a project can improve the Industry substantiality, in other words, value maximization. The purpose of this paper is to develop a new methodology in developing a risk-based estimate tool by incorporating extensive project characteristics. To do this, an extensive industry survey was conducted from both private and public sectors in building industry in Korea. In addition, significant project characteristics were identified in terms of cost performance indicator. Although the data collection is limited to Korean industry the suggested approach provides the industry with a straightforward methodology in risk management. As many researchers maintained that front-end planning efforts are crucial in achieving the successful outcome in building projects, the new method for risk-based estimation can Improve the cost performance as well as enhance the fulfillment in terms of business sustainability.

• Korean Journal of Human Ecology
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• v.18 no.3
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• pp.631-639
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• 2009

This study examines how the project approach utilizing beans as the subject matter influences young children's scientific research capabilities and scientific attitudes. This examination ultimately aims at developing effective teaching methods and programs that can promote children's scientific research capabilities and scientific attitudes. Thirty six children at H kindergarten in Gunsan, Jeollabuk-do were selected as subjects of this study. The children aged five were divided into an experiment group and a comparison group, with eighteen for each group. Before the experiment, a pre-test was conducted on the children's scientific research capabilities and scientific attitudes. The pre-test results were subject to a t test to identify whether there were differences between the two groups in age as well as the levels of scientific research capabilities and attitudes. A post-test was also conducted to determine the differences between the two groups in these categories. These results have led to the conclusion that the project approach utilizing beans as the subject matter has a positive impact on improving young children's scientific research capabilities and scientific attitudes.

• Proceedings of the Korea Inteligent Information System Society Conference
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• 1999.03a
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• pp.403-413
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• 1999

Today's businesses are experiencing intensive global competition and the most accelerating pace of change ever. Competitors have sprung up that were not even on the business's radar. This environment impacts all decisions and strategies as business try to dominate their market or their marker or their industry merely to survive. So recently most of organizations are considering on building the data warehouse system to pursuit the business intelligence. We need the proper model to guide the approach to plan building data warehouse system when we want to plan it in considering the organizational status. Therefore we suggest a model to decide the approach to build data warehouse considering the project's environmental factors. First we review Ronald S. Swift(1998)'s five environmental factors that we have to consider when planing to build data warehouse. Then we propose a model to decide DW approach by the degree of those factors to be measured. DW approaches in this model are classified in conservative approach, increasing approach, enterprise wide approach, and ideal approach.

• Proceedings of the Safety Management and Science Conference
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• 2005.05a
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• pp.123-127
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• 2005

This paper considers a set of project management practices for government R&D projects, enterprise R&D projects and new product design project. The approach of managing multi-project is proposed by the use of organizational structure and control.

• Journal of Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• v.6 no.2
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• pp.24-29
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• 2016

This paper elaborates the significance of scenario planning in risk management, and presents an integrated approach which takes into account the 'Risk Events' derived from scenario planning for risk prioritisation. This research integrates scenario planning with Risk Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (RFMEA) through examples from construction litigations of project schedule and cost overrun cases as a simplified approach to project risk management. The proposed methodology incorporates scenarios developed from realistic events of dispute and arbitration cases from construction projects, and thereby increasing potential to foresee risks and their effects well in advance. The results from this methodology shall be validated against outcome of survey study conducted by KPMG-PMI (2013) on project schedule and cost overruns that was based on Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) Project Monitoring data for 2012-13.