• Asian Journal of Business Environment
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• 제6권1호
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• pp.19-24
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• 2016

Purpose - This paper aims to find and analyze factors that determine the flows of bilateral foreign direct investment in intra-ASEAN. It specifically focuses on the dimension of macro-economic, natural resources, human resources, and the quality of governance. Research design, data, and methodology - Data were collected from 64 bilateral relations between ASEAN nations from 2002 to 2013. Panel gravity model was utilized to find factors that determine the flows of bilateral foreign direct investment. Results - Significant factors were identified that determine the flows of bilateral foreign direct investment: GDP home country, GDP host country, real interest rate, distance, and total natural resources rent. Unexpectedly, natural resources have a negative effect. Conclusions - In a situation of increasing the flow of FDI among the countries of ASEAN, the government should control the interest rates and maintain good relations with nearby countries. The negative effect of total natural resource rents implies that ASEAN countries should not depend on their natural resources to attract foreign investments.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• 제26권2호
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• pp.143-169
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• 2022

This study investigates the effect of economic factors on immigration using the gravity model of immigration. Cross-sectional regression and panel data analyses are conducted from 2000 to 2019 using the OECD International Migration Database, which consists of 36 destination countries and 201 countries of origin. The Poisson pseudo-maximum-likelihood method, which can effectively correct potential biased estimates caused by zeros in the immigration data, is used for estimation. The results indicate that the economic factors strengthened after the global financial crisis. Additionally, this effect varies depending on the type of immigration (the income level of origin country). The gravity model applied to immigration performs reasonably well, but it is necessary to consider the country-specific and time-varying characteristics.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• 제24권6호
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• pp.157-172
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• 2020

Purpose - This research empirically proves the extent to which export insurance promotes Korean exports to research object countries among New Southern countries. The outcome of this research will present implications for the operations of export insurance for exports to these countries. Design/methodology - For the empirical analysis, the export equation was composed using a basic gravity model. Based on this, the determinants of Korea's exports to research object countries were analyzed. In this study, a panel unit root test and panel cointegration test were conducted. As a result of the panel unit root test, it was confirmed that the variables of the panel data are not belonging to I(0), but to I(1). As a result of the panel cointegration test, it was established that there are long-term stable relationships among all variables. Accordingly, the gravity model was estimated using original data in order to reduce the information loss caused by the first difference, in spite of individual data belonging to I(1). Findings - For the estimated results of panel OLS, the estimated coefficient of short-term export insurance was 0.56-0.64, with statistically significant results at the significance level of 1%. In addition, for the analysis results of the random effect model, the estimated coefficient of short-term export insurance was 0.59-0.64%, with a statistically significant result at the 1% significance level. This could indicate that Korean export insurance has positive influences on export promotion to New Southern countries. Originality/value - The research implies that export insurance has a 4.1 to 4.7 multiplier effect in expanding exports to the New Southern countries for Korea. This research has intensively analyzed the effects of export insurance on the promotion of exports to a selected area by a government foreign economic policy, which is the originality and value of this paper.

• 한국항만경제학회지
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• 제30권2호
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• pp.133-143
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• 2014

우리나라는 주요 선진국들이 지역주의를 확산시키고, FTA 체결 회원국 전체의 경제적 부가가치를 증대시킬 수 있다는 점에서 FTA를 적극적으로 추진하고 있다. 우리나라의 현재 FTA 추진 현황은 발효 9건, 타결 3건, 협상진행 6건, 협상재개 여건조성 3건, 협상준비(공동연구 포함) 4건으로, 한 중 FTA이 체결된다면 우리나라의 FTA 교역 비중은 조만간 전체 교역의 50%를 넘어설 것으로 예상된다. 그리고 우리나라 무역의 대부분이 해상을 통해서 이루어짐을 감안할 때 항만을 통한 무역패턴과 수출효과를 파악할 필요가 있다. 최근에는 전통적인 교역이론에서 고려되지 않았던 거리적 위치, 운송비용, 인구 수, 문화적 요인이 교역패턴에 영향을 미친다는 중력모형의 적용이 많이 늘어나고 있다. 이러한 배경 하에서 본고는 패널중력모형을 이용하여 광양항의 주요 교역 상대국의 수출결정요인을 식별하고, FTA가 광양항 수출에 미치는 영향의 크기를 분석하였다. 분석결과, 패널 수준변수들은 불안정적이고 1차 차분 후 안정성을 회복하였다. 다음 단계로 패널 공적분 검정을 통해 패널 수준변수들의 장기적 균형 관계가 존재함을 알 수 있었으며, 하우스만 검정을 통하여 고정효과 모형이 적합함을 밝힐 수 있었다. 패널중력모형 분석결과, 중력모형의 기본전제가 양호하게 성립하고, 지역무역협정의 수출증대 효과가 존재하는 것을 확인할 수 있었다.

• 무역상무연구
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• 제77권
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• pp.195-214
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• 2018

In order to analyze the current status of trade with Korea and FTA partner countries, the Trade Intensity Index and the Market Comparative Advantage index were calculated and analyzed using panel gravity model. In the case of trade, trade intensity index has been strengthened according to each FTA enforecement, and in some cases, trade inensity has been weakened. In the case of the comparative advantage index, there was a case in which the comparative advantage was strengthened or the comparative advantage was not significantly changed according to each Chapter of HS code. This means that the Korea's FTA enforcement effect has not directly affected the increase of the trade intensity and the increase of the market comparative advantage index. The panel gravity model using the trade intensity and the comparative advantage index as the dependent variable and the trade volume between the two countries as the dependent variable was analyzed.

• Asian Journal of Business Environment
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• 제13권1호
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• pp.31-41
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• 2023

Purpose: This study purposes to analyze the determinants of the volume of Indonesian tuna exports. Research design, data and methodology: The framework was developed from the gravity model for trade, which was expanded with additional variables of competitiveness, exchange rate, and industrial share of the destination country. The data sources used in this study are UN Comtrade and the World Bank. The data used is yearly data from 12 countries in 2001-2019. The scope of the study is limited to exports to the twelve main export destinations. Panel data regression analysis is used to determine the factors that affect the volume of Indonesian tuna exports. Results: The results show that according to the theory, Indonesia's GDP has a positive effect and economic distance has a negative effect on the volume of the exports. Meanwhile, the GDPs of the destination countries are not proven to have a positive effect. However, the higher the industrial share in the country, the higher the export volume tends to be. Conclusions: The conclusion obtained from this study is that Indonesia's GDP, economic distance, real exchange rate, industrial GDP share of the destination country, and the RCA index affect the volume of Indonesian tuna exports.

• 농촌계획
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• 제22권4호
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• pp.103-114
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• 2016

The global trade partners have been diversified and mixed in agricultural market, which is expended the international agri-food market through the Regional Trade Agreement and World Trade Organization, etc. The aim of this study is to derive influential factors for exports increases of agricultural products targeting to Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN). We set the equation for agricultural products exports referred to panel gravity model considering panel fixed effect for controlling endogeneity within variables. The results of this study are the follows; (1) Social economic distance considering international oil price negatively affects in the mushroom model; (2) Korean GDP affects (-) in a mushroom model and (+) in a vegetable model, however, ASEAN's per capita GDP indicates opposite influence in the same model; (3) Relative exchange rate shows negative impact in a vegetable model; (4) The entry status into WTO and the status in force of FTA have converse effects in mushroom and vegetable model, respectively.

• 통상정보연구
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• 제9권4호
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• pp.439-460
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• 2007

The purpose of this paper is to study on export factor of Korean into China by 31 Province and City. Using the panel data on Korean export factor in China for the years 1998-2005, we examined the factors determinants of import in China(by region)from Korean firms. This study based on Gravity Model to extend and fixed & random effect Model. The result of analysis is as follows : The effect of significant on Import from Korean is FDI from Korea, export into world, import from world, population in region. But per GRDP, consumption, FDI into world variable is statistically insignificant. Also coastal region variable is not a clear.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제5권3호
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• pp.43-50
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• 2018

The paper aims to investigate the impact of trade cost on export: A Case Study Vietnam. The study conducts a static linear panel data analysis on annual data covering bilateral export between Vietnam and 70 major importers of Vietnam from 2001 to 2013. The gravity model has been one of the most successful applications in empirical trade. In this paper we apply the gravity model to estimate the impact of trade cost on Vietnamese bilateral export value. The paper uses gravity model to estimate the impact of trade cost on Vietnamese bilateral export value. The empirical results derive from a static linear panel data analysis (fixed effects model) indicates that trade cost plays a crucial role in determining the export value that occurs between Vietnam and trading partners. Besides, population of importing country, trade openness of importing country, gross domestic product of importing country and gross domestic product of Vietnam are also significant determinants of Vietnamese bilateral export value. The main findings indicates that trade cost plays a very important role in the Vietnamese bilateral export performance. This suggests that the Vietnamese government should attempt to improve domestic trade costs to enhance competitiveness and increase export growth sustainably.

• 국제지역연구
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• 제16권1호
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• pp.243-274
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• 2012

본 연구에서는 중력모형과 챠우 검정(Chow Test) 및 패널 데이터 분석을 이용하여 한국의 교역결정요인에 대하여 분석하였다. 챠우 검정(Chow test) 분석결과 2008년 금융위기를 기준으로 한국의 무역패턴이 이질적으로 변화했음을 확인할 수 있었다. 중력모형의 기본 설명변수인 일인당 GDP, 거리, 인구변수의 경우, 2008년 금융위기 이후 계수의 절대값이 전반적으로 하락한 것으로 드러났다. 중력모형에서 설명변수의 계수는 탄력성(elasticity)임을 고려할 때, 기본중력모형 설명변수들이 가지는 영향력이 감소한 것으로 해석할 수 있다. 반면 해외직접투자가 교역량 증가에 미치는 긍정적 영향력이 보다 확대되었고, 무역보완도 지수(TCI)가 더 이상 유의하지 않은 결과를 보여 한국의 교역패턴에도 변화가 있음을 확인할 수 있었다. 본 연구는 55개 주요 교역상대국을 대상으로 한국의 중요 교역결정변수의 변화에 대한 계량분석을 통하여 금융위기 이후 한국이 교역량을 지속적으로 증가시키기 위한 전략을 제시할 수 있다는 점에서 의의를 갖는다고 할 수 있다.