• Computers and Concrete
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• v.16 no.4
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• pp.569-585
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• 2015

Various computational tools are available for modeling highly nonlinear structural engineering problems that lack a precise analytical theory or understanding of the phenomena involved. This paper adopts a fairly simple nonparametric adaptive regression algorithm known as multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) to model the nonlinear interactions between variables. The MARS method makes no specific assumptions about the underlying functional relationship between the input variables and the response. Details of MARS methodology and its associated procedures are introduced first, followed by a number of examples including three practical structural engineering problems. These examples indicate that accuracy of the MARS prediction approach. Additionally, MARS is able to assess the relative importance of the designed variables. As MARS explicitly defines the intervals for the input variables, the model enables engineers to have an insight and understanding of where significant changes in the data may occur. An example is also presented to demonstrate how the MARS developed model can be used to carry out structural reliability analysis.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• v.10 no.3
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• pp.269-284
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• 2016

Simplified techniques based on in situ testing methods are commonly used to assess seismic liquefaction potential. Many of these simplified methods were developed by analyzing liquefaction case histories from which the liquefaction boundary (limit state) separating two categories (the occurrence or non-occurrence of liquefaction) is determined. As the liquefaction classification problem is highly nonlinear in nature, it is difficult to develop a comprehensive model using conventional modeling techniques that take into consideration all the independent variables, such as the seismic and soil properties. In this study, a modification of the Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) approach based on Logistic Regression (LR) LR_MARS is used to evaluate seismic liquefaction potential based on actual field records. Three different LR_MARS models were used to analyze three different field liquefaction databases and the results are compared with the neural network approaches. The developed spline functions and the limit state functions obtained reveal that the LR_MARS models can capture and describe the intrinsic, complex relationship between seismic parameters, soil parameters, and the liquefaction potential without having to make any assumptions about the underlying relationship between the various variables. Considering its computational efficiency, simplicity of interpretation, predictive accuracy, its data-driven and adaptive nature and its ability to map the interaction between variables, the use of LR_MARS model in assessing seismic liquefaction potential is promising.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2018.05a
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• pp.351-354
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• 2018

본 연구에서는 일 증발접시 증발량 모델링을 위한 다변량 적응 회귀 스플라인 (multivariate adaptive regression splines, MARS) 모델의 성능을 평가하였다. 모델 입력변수 집합은 부산 관측소 (기상청)로부터 수집된 기상자료를 활용하여 증발접시 증발량과의 상관성이 높은 변수들의 조합으로 구성되었으며, 일사량, 일조시간, 평균지상온도, 최대기온의 조합으로 구성된 세 가지 입력집합이 결정되었다. MARS 모델의 성능은 네 가지의 모델성능평가지표를 활용하여 정량적으로 산출되었으며, 그 결과를 인공신경망 (artificial neural network, ANN) 모델과 비교하였다. 입력변수로서 일사량 및 일조시간을 가지는 Set 1의 경우 MARS1 모델이 ANN1 모델보다 우수한 성능을 나타내었으며, Set 2 (일사량, 일조시간, 평균지상온도)의 경우 ANN2 모델, Set 3 (일사량, 일조시간, 평균지상온도, 최대기온)의 경우 MARS3 모델이 상대적으로 우수한 모델 성능을 나타내었다. 모든 분석 모델들을 비교하였을 때, MARS3, ANN2, ANN3, MARS2, MARS1, ANN1 모델의 순서로 우수한 모델 성능을 나타내었으며, 특히 MARS3 모델은 CE = 0.790, $r^2=0.800$, RMSE = 0.762, MAE = 0.587로서 가장 우수한 일 증발접시 증발량 모델링 성능을 나타내었다. 따라서 본 연구에서 적용한 MARS 모델은 지상관측 기상자료를 활용한 일 증발접시 증발량 모델링에서 효과적인 대안이 될 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

• Steel and Composite Structures
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• v.33 no.4
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• pp.583-594
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• 2019

In the areas highly exposed to earthquakes, concrete-filled steel tube columns (CFSTCs) are known to provide superior structural aspects such as (i) high strength for good seismic performance (ii) high ductility (iii) enhanced energy absorption (iv) confining pressure to concrete, (v) high section modulus, etc. Numerous studies were reported on behavior of CFSTCs under axial compression loadings. This paper presents an analytical model to predict ultimate load capacity of CFSTCs with circular sections under axial load by using multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS). MARS is a nonlinear and non-parametric regression methodology. After careful study of literature, 150 comprehensive experimental data presented in the previous studies were examined to prepare a data set and the dependent variables such as geometrical and mechanical properties of circular CFST system have been identified. Basically, MARS model establishes a relation between predictors and dependent variables. Separate regression lines can be formed through the concept of divide and conquers strategy. About 70% of the consolidated data has been used for development of model and the rest of the data has been used for validation of the model. Proper care has been taken such that the input data consists of all ranges of variables. From the studies, it is noted that the predicted ultimate axial load capacity of CFSTCs is found to match with the corresponding experimental observations of literature.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.48 no.6
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• pp.1315-1320
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• 2016

The present study aims to predict the heat transfer characteristics around a square cylinder with different corner radii using multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS). Further, the MARS-generated objective function is optimized by particle swarm optimization. The data for the prediction are taken from the recently published article by the present authors [P. Dey, A. Sarkar, A.K. Das, Development of GEP and ANN model to predict the unsteady forced convection over a cylinder, Neural Comput. Appl. (2015) 1-13]. Further, the MARS model is compared with artificial neural network and gene expression programming. It has been found that the MARS model is very efficient in predicting the heat transfer characteristics. It has also been found that MARS is more efficient than artificial neural network and gene expression programming in predicting the forced convection data, and also particle swarm optimization can efficiently optimize the heat transfer rate.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• v.7 no.4
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• pp.431-458
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• 2014

Construction of a new cavern close to an existing cavern will result in a modification of the state of stresses in a zone around the existing cavern as interaction between the twin caverns takes place. Extensive plane strain finite difference analyses were carried out to examine the deformations induced by excavation of underground twin caverns. From the numerical results, a fairly simple nonparametric regression algorithm known as multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) has been used to relate the maximum key point displacement and the percent strain to various parameters including the rock quality, the cavern geometry and the in situ stress. Probabilistic assessments on the serviceability limit state of twin caverns can be performed using the First-order reliability spreadsheet method (FORM) based on the built MARS model. Parametric studies indicate that the probability of failure $P_f$ increases as the coefficient of variation of Q increases, and $P_f$ decreases with the widening of the pillar.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• v.21 no.6
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• pp.583-598
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• 2020

This study is attempted to propose a new hybrid artificial intelligence model called integrative genetic algorithm with multivariate adaptive regression splines (GA-MARS) for settlement prediction of shallow foundations on sandy soils. In this hybrid model, the evolution algorithm - Genetic Algorithm (GA) was used to search and optimize the hyperparameters of multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS). For this purpose, a total of 180 experimental data were collected and analyzed from available researches with five-input variables including the bread of foundation (B), length to width (L/B), embedment ratio (D_f/B), foundation net applied pressure (q_net), and average SPT blow count (N_SPT). In further analysis, a new explicit formulation was derived from MARS and its accuracy was compared with four available formulae. The attained results indicated that the proposed GA-MARS model exhibited a more robust and better performance than the available methods.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.70 no.6
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• pp.671-681
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• 2019

This paper examines the applicability of artificial neural network (ANN) and multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) to predict the compressive strength of bacteria incorporated geopolymer concrete (GPC). The mix is composed of new bacterial strain, manufactured sand, ground granulated blast furnace slag, silica fume, metakaolin and fly ash. The concentration of sodium hydroxide (NaOH) is maintained at 8 Molar, sodium silicate ($Na_2SiO_3$) to NaOH weight ratio is 2.33 and the alkaline liquid to binder ratio of 0.35 and ambient curing temperature ($28^{\circ}C$) is maintained for all the mixtures. In ANN, back-propagation training technique was employed for updating the weights of each layer based on the error in the network output. Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm was used for feed-forward back-propagation. MARS model was developed by establishing a relationship between a set of predictors and dependent variables. MARS is based on a divide and conquers strategy partitioning the training data sets into separate regions; each gets its own regression line. Six models based on ANN and MARS were developed to predict the compressive strength of bacteria incorporated GPC for 1, 3, 7, 28, 56 and 90 days. About 70% of the total 84 data sets obtained from experiments were used for development of the models and remaining 30% data was utilized for testing. From the study, it is observed that the predicted values from the models are found to be in good agreement with the corresponding experimental values and the developed models are robust and reliable.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• v.16 no.6
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• pp.577-588
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• 2018

A major concern in deep excavation project in soft clay deposits is the potential for adjacent buildings to be damaged as a result of the associated excessive ground movements. In order to accurately determine the wall deflections using a numerical procedure such as the finite element method, it is critical to use the correct soil parameters such as the stiffness/strength properties. This can be carried out by performing an inverse analysis using the measured wall deflections. This paper firstly presents the results of extensive plane strain finite element analyses of braced diaphragm walls to examine the influence of various parameters such as the excavation geometry, soil properties and wall stiffness on the wall deflections. Based on these results, a multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) model was developed for inverse parameter identification of the soil relative stiffness ratio. A second MARS model was also developed for inverse parameter estimation of the wall system stiffness, to enable designers to determine the appropriate wall size during the preliminary design phase. Soil relative stiffness ratios and system stiffness values derived via these two different MARS models were found to compare favourably with a number of field and published records.

• Computers and Concrete
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.1-14
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• 2020

This study presents applications of the multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) method for predicting the ultimate loading carrying capacity (N_u) of rectangular concrete-filled steel tubular (CFST) columns subjected to eccentric loading. A database containing 141 experimental data was collected from available literature to develop the MARS model with a total of seven variables that covered various geometrical and material properties including the width of rectangular steel tube (B), the depth of rectangular steel tube (H), the wall thickness of steel tube (t), the length of column (L), cylinder compressive strength of concrete (f'_c), yield strength of steel (f_y), and the load eccentricity (e). The proposed model is a combination of the MARS algorithm and the grid search cross-validation technique (abbreviated here as GS-MARS) in order to determine MARS' parameters. A new explicit formulation was derived from MARS for the mentioned input variables. The GS-MARS estimation accuracy was compared with four available mathematical methods presented in the current design codes, including AISC, ACI-318, AS, and Eurocode 4. The results in terms of criteria indices indicated that the MARS model was much better than the available formulae.