• Title/Summary/Keyword: mitigation scenario

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Selection of Mitigation Scenarios Based on Prediction of the Dispersion Impact of Ecosystem-Disturbing Plant Species on Ecosystems (생태계교란식물의 확산 영향 예측에 따른 저감대책 시나리오 선정)

  • Lee, Sang-Wook;Kim, Yoon-Ji;Chung, Hye-In;Lee, Ji-Yeon;Yoo, Young-Jae;Lee, Gwan-Gyu;Sung, Hyun-Chan;Jeon, Seong-Woo
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Environmental Restoration Technology
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.15-27
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    • 2024
  • Ecosystem-disturbing plant species pose a significant threat to native ecosystems due to their high reproductive capacity, making it essential to monitor their distribution and develop effective mitigation strategies. Consequently, it is crucial to enhance the evaluation of the impacts of these species in environmental impact assessments by incorporating scientific evidence alongside qualitative assessments. This study introduces a dispersal model into the species distribution model to simulate the potential spread of ecosystem-disturbing plant species, reflecting their ecological characteristics. Additionally, we developed mitigation scenarios and quantitatively calculated reduction rates to propose effective mitigation strategies. The species distribution model showed a reliable AUC (Area Under the Curve) of at least 0.890. The dispersal model's results were also credible, with 31 out of 34 validation coordinates falling within the predicted spread range. Simulating the impact of the spread of ecosystem-disturbing plant species over the next five years revealed that one project site had potential habitats for Ambrosia artemisiifolia, necessitating robust mitigation measures such as seed removal. Another project site, with potential habitats for Symphyotrichum pilosum, indicated that physical removal methods within the site were effective due to the species' relatively short dispersal distance. These findings can serve as fundamental data for project executors and reviewers in evaluating the impact of the spread of ecosystem-disturbing plant species during the planning stages of projects.

Estimation of Regional Probable Rainfall based on Climate Change Scenarios (기후변화 시나리오에 따른 지역별 확률강우량)

  • Kim, Young-Ho;Yeo, Chang-Geon;Seo, Geun-Soon;Song, Jai-Woo
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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    • v.11 no.3
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    • pp.29-35
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    • 2011
  • This research proposes the suitable method for estimating the future probable rainfall based in 2100 on the observed rainfall data from main climate observation stations in Korea and the rainfall data from the A1B climate change scenario in the Korea Meteorological Administration. For all those, the frequency probable rainfall in 2100 was estimated by the relationship between average values of 24-hours annual maximum rainfalls and related parameters. Three methods to estimate it were introduced; First one is the regressive analysis method by parameters of probable distribution estimated by observed rainfall data. In the second method, parameters of probable distribution were estimated with the observed rainfall data. Also the rainfall data till 2100 were estimated by the A1B scenario of the Korea Meteorological Administration. Last method was that parameters of probable distribution and probable rainfall were estimated by the A1B scenario of the Korea Meteorological Administration. The estimated probable rainfall by the A1B scenario was smaller than the observed rainfall data, so it is required that the estimated probable rainfall was calibrated by the quantile mapping method. After that calibration, estimated probable rainfall data was averagely became approximate 2.3 to 3.0 times. When future probable rainfall was the estimated by only observed rainfall, estimated probable rainfall was overestimated. When future probable rainfall was estimated by the A1B scenario, although it was estimated by similar pattern with observed rainfall data, it frequently does not consider the regional characteristics. Comparing with average increased rate of 24-hours annual maximum rainfall and increased rate of probable rainfall estimated by three methods, optimal method of estimated future probable rainfall would be selected for considering climate change.

Earthquake Loss Estimation of the Gyeongju Area using the Deterministic Method in HAZUS (HAZUS의 결정론적 방법을 이용한 경주지역의 지진재해예측)

  • Kang, Su-Young;Kim, Kwang-Hee;Suk, Bong-Chool;Yoo, Hai-Soo
    • 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2008.02a
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    • pp.597-600
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    • 2008
  • Observed ground motions from the January 2007 magnitude 4.9 Odaesan earthquake and the events occurring in the Gyeongsang provinces are compared with the previously proposed ground attenuation relationships in the Korean Peninsula to select most appropriate one. The selected relationship from the ones for the Korean Peninsula has been compared with attenuation relationships available in HAZUS. Then, the attenuation relation for the Western United States proposed by Sadigh et al.(1997) for the Site Class B has been selected for this study. It has been used for the earthquake loss estimation of the Gyeongju area located in southeast Korea using the deterministic method in HAZUS with a scenario earthquake (M=6.7). Application of the improved methodology for loss estimation in Korea will help decision makers for planning disaster responses and hazard mitigation.

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A Study for Co-channel Interference Mitigation in WBAN System (WBAN 환경에서 Co-channel 간섭 제거를 위한 연구)

  • Choi, W.S.;Kim, J.G.
    • Journal of rehabilitation welfare engineering & assistive technology
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    • v.5 no.1
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    • pp.35-40
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    • 2011
  • In this paper, we analyze that co-channel interference mitigation algorithms MMSE (Minimum Mean Square Error), OC (Optimal Combining), ML (Maximum Likelihood) using 2.4Ghz in WBAN (Wireless Body Area Network) system. Also analyze that scenario and channel model by IEEE 802.15.6. ML gives the best performance for all simulation. ML and OC have high complexity than MMSE complexity, because these algorithms should be known channel information of interference users. So these algorithms are difficult to apply to WBAN. Therefore we will study the interference mitigation algorithm that should be accomplished trade-off of between efficiency and complexity.

The Greenhouse-Gas Mitigation Potential analysis by Distribution of Solar Thermal System in Housing Sector (태양열난방시스템 도입에 따른 주거부문에서의 온실가스 감축 잠재량 분석)

  • Jeong, Young-Sun;Mun, Sun-Hye;Yu, Ki-Hyung
    • Journal of the Korean Solar Energy Society
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    • v.32 no.1
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    • pp.32-39
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    • 2012
  • New and renewable energy systems(solar thermal system, photovoltaic system, geothermal system, wind power system) are environmentally friendly technologies and these in South Korea are very important measures to reduce greenhouse-gas(GHG) and to push ahead with Green Growth. The purpose of this paper is to analyze GHG mitigation potential by distribution of solar thermal system in housing sector with bottom-up model called 'Long-range Energy Alternative Planning system'. Business as usual(BAU) was based on energy consumption characteristic with the trend of social-economic prospects and the volume of housing. The total amount of GHG emission of BAU was expected to continuous increase from 66.0 million-ton $CO_{2e}$ in 2007 to 73.1 million-ton $CO_{2e}$ in 2030 because of the increase of energy consumption in housing. The alternative scenario, distribution of solar thermal system in housing sector had GHG mitigation potential 1.54 million-ton $CO_{2e}$ in 2030. The results of this study showed that new and renewable energy systems made a contribution of reducing the use of fossil fuel and the emission of greenhouse-gas in building.

Development of a human reliability analysis (HRA) guide for qualitative analysis with emphasis on narratives and models for tasks in extreme conditions

  • Kirimoto, Yukihiro;Hirotsu, Yuko;Nonose, Kohei;Sasou, Kunihide
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.53 no.2
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    • pp.376-385
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    • 2021
  • Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) has improved its elemental technologies used for assessing external events since the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station Accident in 2011. HRA needs to be improved for analyzing tasks performed under extreme conditions (e.g., different actors responding to external events or performing operations using portable mitigation equipment). To make these improvements, it is essential to understand plant-specific and scenario-specific conditions that affect human performance. The Nuclear Risk Research Center (NRRC) of the Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry (CRIEPI) has developed an HRA guide that compiles qualitative analysis methods for collecting plant-specific and scenario-specific conditions that affect human performance into "narratives," reflecting the latest research trends, and models for analysis of tasks under extreme conditions.

Impacts of Carbon Neutrality and Air Quality Control on Near-term Climate Change in East Asia (탄소중립과 대기질 개선 정책이 동아시아 근 미래 기후변화에 미치는 영향)

  • Youn-Ah Kim;Jung Choi;Seok-Woo Son
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.33 no.5
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    • pp.505-517
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    • 2023
  • This study investigates the impacts of carbon neutrality and air quality control policies on near-term climate change in East Asia, by examining three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios from five climate models. Specifically, low carbon and strong air quality control scenario (SSP1-1.9), high carbon and weak air quality control scenario (SSP3-7.0), and high carbon and strong air quality control scenario (SSP3-7.0-lowNTCF) are compared. For these scenarios, the near-term climate (2045-2054 average) changes are evaluated for surface air temperature (SAT), hot temperature extreme intensity (TXx), and hot temperature extreme frequency (TX90p). In all three scenarios, SAT, TXx, and TX90p are projected to increase in East Asia, while carbon neutrality reduces the increasing rate of SAT and hot temperature extremes. Air quality control strengthens the warming rate. These opposed mitigation effects are robustly forced in all model simulations. Nonetheless, the impact of carbon neutrality overcomes the impact of air quality control. These results suggest that fast carbon neutrality, more effective than an air quality control policy, is necessary to slowdown future warming trend in East Asia.

Study on the Changes in Evapotranspiration according to the Decentralized Rainwater Management (분산식 빗물관리시설 적용에 따른 증발산 변화 연구)

  • Han, Young-Hae;Lee, Tae-Goo
    • KIEAE Journal
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    • v.12 no.5
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    • pp.3-10
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    • 2012
  • In this study, the influence of decentralized rainwater management over the changes in evapotranspiration was analyzed. The analysis method was obtained by establishing the decentralized rainwater management plan according to different scenarios, and subsequently examined evapotranspiration in the plan. Scenario 1 refers to the analysis of the existing situation, in which was 100% of a parking lot is asphalt pavement. In Scenario 2, the pavement of the parking surface in the parking lot is replaced with lawn blocks. In Scenario 3, some asphalt pavement was removed to establish a flower-bed type infiltration system to allow rainwater to permeate. In Scenario 4, infiltration and storage of rain water would be achieved by transforming the parking surface into lawn blocks, keeping the asphalt for the parking road while establishing a vegetation strip. The amount of evapotranspiration of the target site was analyzed with a water budget analysis program (CAT) using the 2001 meteorological data for each scenario According to the analysis values of S2 and S3, it was found that evapotranspiration is critically affected by the amount of area replaced with pervious area in the total target site. An energy equivalent to 680kWh is required for 1 ton of water to evaporate. Hence, it can be seen that the active inducement of evapotranspiration in urban area makes a positive contribution not only to heat island mitigation, but also to the small-scale water circulation process in a city.

Scenario Analysis Technology for Flood Risk Management in the Taihu Basin

  • Changwei, Hu
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2010.05a
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    • pp.140-148
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    • 2010
  • The Taihu Basin is located in the east coast of China, where the threats of frequent floods have induced construction of massive, complex, hierarchical flood defense systems over the interconnected river networks. Digital modeling of flooding processes and quantitative damage assessment still remain challenging due to such complexity. The current research uses an integrated approach to meet this challenge by combining multiple types of models within a GIS platform. A new algorithm is introduced to simulate the impacts of the flood defense systems, especially the large number of polders, on floods distributions and damages.

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Open Space Spacial Pattern Analysis from the Perspective of Urban Heat Mitigation (도시 열저감 관점에서의 오픈스페이스 토지이용 공간패턴분석)

  • Sangjun Kang
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.33 no.4
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    • pp.155-163
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    • 2024
  • The purpose is to explore the meaning of the open space land use space pattern from the perspective of urban heat reduction using the land-use scenario. The employed methods are as follows: (1) to calculate the cooling capacity Index for each of five land use scenarios, using the InVEST Urban Cooling Model, (2) to calculate open space entropy & morphological spatial pattern for each land use scenario, using the Guidos Spatial Pattern Toolbox, and (3) to perform a Spearman rank correlation analysis between the InVEST and Guidos results. It is found that the rank correlation is moderate between the cooling capacity Index and the open space area ratio (rho=0.50). However, other relations are low. It is observed that only the total amount of open space is likely to have a meaning from the perspective of urban heat reduction, and that other open space location spatial patterns may not have much meaning from the perspective of urban thermal environment management.