Atmosphere (대기)

Korean Meteorological Society (한국기상학회)
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Impacts of Carbon Neutrality and Air Quality Control on Near-term Climate Change in East Asia

탄소중립과 대기질 개선 정책이 동아시아 근 미래 기후변화에 미치는 영향

  • Youn-Ah Kim (School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University) ;
  • Jung Choi (School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University) ;
  • Seok-Woo Son (School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University)
  • 김윤아 (서울대학교 지구환경과학부) ;
  • 최정 (서울대학교 지구환경과학부) ;
  • 손석우 (서울대학교 지구환경과학부)
  • Received : 2023.08.24
  • Accepted : 2023.10.30
  • Published : 2023.11.30
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Abstract

This study investigates the impacts of carbon neutrality and air quality control policies on near-term climate change in East Asia, by examining three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios from five climate models. Specifically, low carbon and strong air quality control scenario (SSP1-1.9), high carbon and weak air quality control scenario (SSP3-7.0), and high carbon and strong air quality control scenario (SSP3-7.0-lowNTCF) are compared. For these scenarios, the near-term climate (2045-2054 average) changes are evaluated for surface air temperature (SAT), hot temperature extreme intensity (TXx), and hot temperature extreme frequency (TX90p). In all three scenarios, SAT, TXx, and TX90p are projected to increase in East Asia, while carbon neutrality reduces the increasing rate of SAT and hot temperature extremes. Air quality control strengthens the warming rate. These opposed mitigation effects are robustly forced in all model simulations. Nonetheless, the impact of carbon neutrality overcomes the impact of air quality control. These results suggest that fast carbon neutrality, more effective than an air quality control policy, is necessary to slowdown future warming trend in East Asia.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

연구는 한국연구재단 해양-육상-대기 탄소순환시스템 연구사업 "동아시아 지역 탄소 순환 불확실성 진단 연구(2021M3I6A1086807)"와 환경부의 재원으로 한국환경산업기술원의 "관측기반 온실가스 공간정보 지도 구축 기술개발사업(RS-2023-00232066)"의 지원으로 수행되었습니다.

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