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Survey on the Role Performance, Satisfaction, and Importance of Occupational Therapists belonging to Dementia Relief Center for Health Care of the Elderly in Local Communities (지역사회 노인의 헬스케어를 위한 치매안심센터 작업치료사의 역할 수행도 및 만족도, 중요도 조사)

  • Ju, Eun-Sol;Bang, Yo-Soon;Hwang, Min-Ji
    • Journal of Korea Entertainment Industry Association
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    • v.14 no.7
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    • pp.599-608
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    • 2020
  • This study aims to investigate the performance and satisfaction of occupational therapists at the Dementia Relief Center for health care of the elderly in local communities, and to provide basic data necessary for role establishment by checking occupational therapists' tasks according to the priority. The subjects of this study were occupational therapists in dementia care centers in the Honam area and Gwangju Metropolitan City, who were surveyed via mail and e-mail. The survey had a total of 54 items covering the general characteristics of the therapists and current state of the centers (n=8), performance and satisfaction with the service areas and task content of the centers (n=45), and tasks that were considered important (one short-answer question). It was found that occupational therapists at the Dementia Relief Center were mainly carrying out the "Dementia Prevention Management Projects", which provided the programs for the patients, and they showed the highest satisfaction. Although the 'MMSE-DS' is occupational therapists' own area with high performance and satisfaction, it was not assigned to the occupational therapists at the Dementia Relief Center, indicating that the role was insufficient. The tasks related "administrative works and strengthening community capacities" showed low performance and satisfaction, but they are essential for the operation of the Dementia Relief Center and the management of the patients, so the plans to increase the occupational therapists' performance should be established. The categories of projects that occupational therapists consider important were also consistent with those they had to perform. It means the occupational therapists at the Dementia Relief Center recognized their unique roles. In this context, to establish the role of occupational therapist at the Dementia Relief Center, it is necessary to amend the operating guidelines based on the performance, satisfaction, and priorities of the projects, and to develop the curriculums and programs that can improve the tasks with insufficient performance and low satisfaction.

Analysis of Spatial Characteristics of Vacant House in Consideration of the Modifiable Areal Unit Problem (MAUP) - Focused on the Old Downtowns of Busan Metropolitan City - (공간단위 수정가능성 문제(MAUP)를 고려한 빈집 발생지역의 특성 분석 - 부산광역시 원도심 일대를 대상으로 -)

  • SEOL, Yu-Jeong;KIM, Ji-Yun;KIM, Ho-Yong
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.120-132
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    • 2022
  • Recently, the rapid increase in vacant houses in urban areas has caused various problems such as worsening urban landscape, causing safety accidents, crime accidents, and hygiene problems. According to the Statistics Korea Future Population Estimation results, the growth rate of Korean population and households is expected to continue to decrease, which is likely to lead to an increase in the occurrence of vacant houses. If the problem caused by the occurrence of vacant houses is neglected, it causes not only a physical decline such as a deterioration of the residential environment but also a social and economic decline. In order to solve this problem, it is necessary to grasp the spatial distribution characteristics of vacant houses at the local level considering the existence of regional characteristics and spatial influence. Therefore, in this study, in order to measure global spatial autocorrelation, the analysis was conducted centering on the old downtown area of Busan, where there are many vacant houses through Moran's I and Geographically Weighted Regression(GWR). In addition, the distribution of vacant houses in different spatial units in Eup_Myeon_Dong and Census was analyzed to evaluate the possibility of Modifiable Areal Unit Problem(MAUP), which differ in the results of spatial analysis as the spatial analysis units change. As a result of the analysis, the occurrence of vacant houses by Eup_Myeon_Dong in the old downtown area of Busan had spatial heterogeneity, and the spatial analysis results of vacant houses were different as the spatial analysis units were different. Accordingly, in order to understand the exact distribution characteristics of vacant house occurrence, spatial dimensions using the GWR model should be considered, and it is suggested that consideration of the MAUP is necessary.

Single Person Household and Urban Policy in Seoul (도시에서 혼자 사는 것의 의미: 1인가구 현황 및 도시정책 수요)

  • Miree BYUN
    • Korean Journal of Culture and Social Issue
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.551-573
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    • 2015
  • The rise of single living has been one of the most important demographic shifts of recent decades. The solo household is a little less than 40% in Europe areas and that of Tokyo is over 45%. Being impacted this figure, the formation of single economy is the key word in World Economic Forum(WEF) 2008. Seoul' single household is increasing rapidly. Between 2000 and 2005, the growth of single person is around 34%, the population of single person reached 700,000 people. Now 20% of total household in Seoul is Single household. Living alone or solo living is not exceptional or special in Seoul Metropolitan City. The rise in single living will create pressures towards poverty and inequality and so on. Seoul should develop and prepare the urban policy for single household. We figured out the four key trends which composed of single household in Seoul. Four types of single person are like below : Gold Mr and Miss, Reserved labor forces, depressed single and silver generation. Gold group is amonst people aged 30 and 40 who is working in the area of white collar and professional. They are usually elective single person household who have chosen solo living. Reserved labor forces group is usually among 20s people who have not get the regular hob. For this group, job acquiring is the most important issue. Depressed single person household group is among people aged late 30s and 40s. Its group is the result from the broken family. The silver group is among aged over 65 that is the main issue of the aged society. In this research, we stressed that people living alone can be split into two types - elective single person households who have chosen single living, and forced single person household who have been constrained to this lifestyle by circumstances. Except gold group, the rest of the group is the forced single household who are faced to poverty. The monthly income of single person household is almost under 2 million won. Single person household is usually working in the blue collar job and service area. So, except gold group that is the smallest part of single person household, almost single person is not the target of private market, but the object of public policy.

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A Study on Method of Citizen Science and Improvement of Performance as a Ecosystem Conservation and Management Tool of Wetland Protected Areas (Inland Wetland) - Focused on the Target of Conservation·Management·Utilization in Wetland Protected Area Conservation Plan - (내륙 습지보호지역의 생태계 보전·관리 도구로서 시민과학연구 방법론 및 성과 제고 방안 - 습지보호지역 보전계획의 보전·관리·이용 목표를 중심으로 -)

  • Inae Yeo;Changsu Lee;Ji Hyun Kang
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.32 no.6
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    • pp.450-462
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    • 2023
  • This study suggested methodology of Citizen Science as a tool of ecosystem conservation and management to achieve Wetland Protected Area (WPA) Conservation Plan and examined whose applicability in 3 WPAs (Jangrok of Gwangju metropolitan city, Madongho of Goseong in South Gyeongsang Province, and Incheongang estuary of Gochang in North Jeolla Province). It consists of a) figuring out main interests and stakeholder or beneficiaries of WPA and their information demand based on conservation, utilization, and management target in the WPA Conservation Plan, b) conducting research activities to gain outcome to address stakeholder's demand, and c) returning the research outcome to citizen scientists and making diffusion to the society. Based on the suggested method and process, citizen scientists conducted ecosystem monitoring (plants including Invasive Alien Plants, terrestrial insects, traces of mammals, discovering unknown wetland). As a result, citizen scientists contributed to collecting species information of 16 plans, 43 species of terrestrial insects, 5 mammals including Lutra lutra (Endangered Species I) and Prionailurus bengalensis (Endangered Species II). The authors constructed and provided distribution map of Invasive Alien Plants, which included information of location and density which citizen scientists registered, for Environment Agencies and local governments who manage 3 WPAs to aid data-based ecosystem policy, In further studies, not only accumulating research data and outcomes acquired from citizen science to suffice the policy demands but also deliberate reviewing policy applicability and social·economic ripple effect should be processed for the suggested Citizen Science in WPA to be settled down as a tool of ecosystem conservation and management.

Image of dental hygienists according to information sources at online or offline: focusing on college preparatory students (온·오프라인 정보수집 경로에 따른 치과위생사 이미지: 대입 준비생을 중심으로)

  • Kyoung-Jin Lee;Hye-Joong Kim;Ji-Eun Um;Joo-Hee Lee;Min-Jeong Ju;Ji-Eun Han;Im-Hee Jung
    • Journal of Korean Dental Hygiene Science
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.13-23
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    • 2023
  • Background: The purpose of this study was to examine the differences in the formation of dental hygienist images based on the pathways of obtaining occupational information and to establish a foundation for the correct perception and positive promotion of the dental hygienist profession. Methods: A survey was distributed to 305 college preparatory students in the metropolitan area. The questionnaire consisted of 34 items, including general characteristics(3 items), pathway-related questions(3 items), dental hygienist image-related question(2 1items), application-related questions(2 items), and admission-related questions(5 items). The images of dental hygienists based on general characteristics, perception pathways, and admission were analyzed using the Mann-Whitney U test and Kruskal-Wallis test. Results: The survey results from all participants showed that the overall image of dental hygienists was 3.75 points. Personal image scored the highest at 4.18 points, while social image was the lowest at 3.20 points(p<0.05). The overall image of dental hygienists was higher for the 'online' group (3.88) compared to the 'offline' group, and statistically significant differences were observed among groups in overall, personal, and professional images(p<0.05). The overall image of dental hygienists was higher for those who learned offline (3.87), and the only significant difference between groups was seen in the personal image. When it came to admission, the 'admitted' students gave a higher overall score (4.00) compared to 'non-admitted' students (3.64), with significance found in all areas except for social image (p<0.05). Conclusion: It is believed that effective utilization of online pathways can inform more people about the importance and expertise of dental hygienists, thereby contributing to promoting oral health and enhancing the perception of the profession. Properly valuing and educating about the role of dental hygienists through promotion and education can help improve the image of the profession.

Spatial Distribution of Aging District in Taejeon Metropolitan City (대전광역시 노령화 지구의 공간적 분포 패턴)

  • Jeong, Hwan-Yeong;Ko, Sang-Im
    • Journal of the Korean association of regional geographers
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.1-19
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    • 2000
  • This study is to investigate and analyze regional patterns of aging in Taejeon Metropolitan city-the overpopulated area of Choong-Cheong Province-by cohort analysis method. According to the population structure transition caused by rapid social and economic changes, Korea has made a rapid progress in population aging since 1970. This trend is so rapid that we should prepare for and cope with aging society. It is not only slow to cope with it in our society, but also there are few studies on population aging of the geographical field in Korea. The data of this study are the reports of Population and Housing Censuses in 1975 and 1985 and General Population and Housing Censuses with 10% sample survey in 1995 taken by National Statistical Office. The research method is to sample as the aging district the area with high aged population rate where the populations over 60 reside among total population during the years of 1975, 1985, 1995 and to sample the special districts of decreasing population where the population decreases very much and the special districts of increasing population in which the population increases greatly, presuming that the reason why aged population rate increases is that non-elderly population high in mobility moves out. It is then verified and ascertained whether it is true or not with cohort analysis method by age. Finally regional patterns in the city are found through the classification and modeling by type based on the aging district, the special districts of decreasing population, and the special districts of increasing population. The characteristics of the regional patterns show that there is social population transition and that non-elderly population moves out. The aging district with the high aged population rate is divided into high-level keeping-up type, relative falling type below the average of Taejeon city in aging progress, and relative rising type above the average of the city. This district can be found at both the central area of the city and the suburbs because Taejeon city has the characteristic of over-bounded city. But it cannot be found at the new built-up area with the in-migration of large population. The special districts of decreasing population where the population continues to decrease can be said to be the population doughnuts found at the CBD and its neighboring inner area. On the other hand, the special districts of increasing population where the population continues to increase are located at the new built-up area of the northern part in Taejeon city. The special districts of decreasing population are overlapping with the aging district and higher in aged population rate by the out-migration of non-elderly population. The special districts of increasing population are not overlapping with the aging district and lower in aged population rate by the in-migration of non-elderly population. To clarify the distribution map of the aging district, the special districts of decreasing and increasing population and the aging district are divided into four groups such as the special districts of decreasing population group-the same one as the aging district, the special districts of decreasing population group, the special districts of increasing population group, and the other district. With the cohort analysis method by age used to investigate the definite increase and decrease of aging population through population transition of each group, it is found that the progress of population aging is closely related to the social population fluctuation, especially that aged population rate is higher with the out-migration of non-elderly population. This is to explain each model of CBD, inner area, and the suburbs after modeling the aging district, the special districts of decreasing population, and the special districts of increasing population in Taejeon city. On the assumption that the city area is a concentric circle, it is possible to divide it into three areas such as CBD(A), the inner area(B), and the suburbs(C). The special districts of increasing and decreasing population in the city are divided into three districts-the special districts of decreasing population(a), the special districts of increasing population(b), and the others(c). The aging district of this city is divided into the aging district($\alpha$) and the others($\beta$). And then modeling these districts, it is probable to find regional patterns in the city. $Aa{\alpha}$ and $Ac{\beta}$ patterns are found in the CBD, in which $Aa{\alpha}$ is the special district of decreasing population and is higher in aged population rate because of aged population low in mobility staying behind and out-migration of non-elderly population. $Ba{\alpha}$, $Ba{\beta}$, $Bb{\beta}$, and $Bc{\beta}$ patterns are found in the inner area, in which neighboring area $Ba{\alpha}$ pattern is located. $Bb{\beta}$ pattern is located at the new developing area of newly built apartment complex. $Cb{\beta}$, $Cc{\alpha}$, and $Cc{\beta}$ patterns are found in the suburbs, among which $Cc{\alpha}$ pattern is highest in population aging. It is likely that the $Cc{\beta}$ under housing land readjustment on a large scale will be the $Cb{\beta}$ pattern. As analyzed above, marriage and out-migration of new family, non-elderly population, with house purchase are main factors in accelerating population aging in the central area of the city. Population aging is responsible for the great increase of aged population with longer life expectancy by the low death rate, the out-migration of non-elderly population, and the age group of new aged population in the suburbs. It is necessary to investigate and analyze the regional patterns of population aging at the time when population problems caused by aging as well as longer life expectancy are now on the increase. I hope that this will help the future study on population aging of the geographical field in Korea. As in the future population aging will be a major problem in our society, local autonomy should make a plan for the problem to the extent that population aging progresses by regional groups and inevitably prepare for it.

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Internal Changes and Countermeasure for Performance Improvement by Separation of Prescribing and Dispensing Practice in Health Center (의약분업(醫藥分業) 실시(實施)에 따른 보건소(保健所)의 내부변화(內部變化)와 업무개선방안(業務改善方案))

  • Jeong, Myeong-Sun;Kam, Sin;Kim, Tae-Woong
    • Journal of agricultural medicine and community health
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.19-35
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    • 2001
  • This study was conducted to investigate the internal changes and the countermeasure for performance improvement by Separation of Prescribing and Dispensing Practice (SPDP) in Health Center. Data were collected from two sources: Performance report before and after SPDP of 25 Health Centers in Kyongsangbuk-do and 6 Health Centers in Daegu-City and self-administerd questionnaire survey of 221 officials at health center. The results of this study were summarized as follows: Twenty-four health centers(77.4%) of 31 health centers took convenience measures for medical treatment of citizens and convenience measures were getting map of pharmacy, improvement of health center interior, introduction of order communication system in order. After the SPDP in health centers, 19.4% of health centers increased doctors and 25.8% decreased pharmacists. 58.1% of health centers showed that number of medical treatments were decreased. 96.4%, 80.6% 80.6% 96.7% of health centers showed that number of prescriptions, total medical treatment expenses, amounts paid by the insureds and the expenses to purchase drugs, respectively, were decreased. More than fifty percent(54.2%) of health centers responded that the relative importance of health works increased compared to medical treatments after the SPDP, and number of patients decreased compared to those in before the SPDP. And there was a drastic reduction in number of prescriptions, total medical treatment expenses, amounts paid by insureds, the expenses to purchase drugs after the SPDP. Above fifty percent(57.6%) of officers at health center responded that the function of medical treatment should be reduced after the SPDP. Fields requested improvement in health centers were 'development of heath works contents'(62.4%), 'rearrangement of health center personnel'(51.6%), 'priority setting for health works'(48.4%), 'restructuring the organization'(36.2%), 'quality impro­vement for medical services'(32.1%), 'replaning the budgets'(23.1%) in order. And to better the image of health centers, health center officers replied that 'health information management'(60.7%), 'public relations for health center'(15.8%), 'kindness of health center officers'(15.3%) were necessary in order. Health center officers suggested that 'vaccination program', 'health promotion', 'maternal and children health', 'communicable disease management', 'community health planning' were relatively important works, in order, performed by health center after SPDP. In the future, medical services in health centers should be cut down with a momentum of the SPDP so that health centers might reestablish their functions and roles as public health organizations, but quality of medical services must be improved. Also health centers should pay attention to residents for improving health through 'vaccination program', 'health promotion', 'mother-children health', 'acute and chronic communicable disease management', 'community health planning', 'oral health', 'chronic degenerative disease management', etc. And there should be a differentiation of relative importance between health promotion services and medical treatment services by character of areas(metropolitan, city, county).

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한강하류지형면의 분류와 지형발달에 대한 연구 (양수리에서 능곡까지)

  • Park, No-Sik
    • Journal of the Speleological Society of Korea
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    • no.68
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    • pp.23-73
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    • 2005
  • Purpose of study; The purpose of this study is specifically classified as two parts. The one is to attempt the chronological annals of Quaternary topographic surface through the study over the formation process of alluvial surfaces in our country, setting forth the alluvial surfaces lower-parts of Han River area, as the basic deposit, and comparing it to the marginal landform surfaces. The other is to attempt the classification of micro morphology based on the and condition premising the land use as a link for the regional development in the lower-parts of Han river area. Reasons why selected the Lower-parts of Han river area as study objects: 1. The change of river course in this area is very serve both in vertical and horizontal sides. With a situation it is very easy to know about the old geography related to the formation process of topography. 2. The component materials of gravel, sand, silt and clay are deposited in this area. Making it the available data, it is possible to consider about not oかy the formation process of topography but alsoon the development history to some extent. 3. The earthen vessel, a fossil shell fish, bone, cnarcoal and sea-weed are included in the alluvial deposition in this area. These can be also valuable data related to the chronological annals. 4. The bottom set conglometate beds is also included in the alluvial deposits. This can be also valuable data related to the research of geomorphological development. 5. Around of this area the medium landform surface, lower landform surface, pediment and basin, are existed, and these enable the comparison between the erosion surfaces and the alluvial surfaces. Approach : 1. Referring to the change of river beds, I have calculated the vertical and horizontal differences comparing the topographic map published in 1916 with that published in 1966 and through the field work 2. In classifying the landform, I have applied the method of micro morphological classification in accordance with the synthetic index based upon the land conditions, and furthermore used the classification method comparing the topographic map published in 1916 and in that of 1966. 3. I have accorded this classification with the classification by mapping through appliying the method of classification in the development history for the field work making the component materials as the available data. 4. I have used the component materials, which were picked up form the outcrop of 10 places and bored at 5 places, as the available data. 5. I have referred to Hydrological survey data of the ministry of Construction (since 1916) on the overflow of Han-river, and used geologic map of Seoul metropolitan area. Survey Data, and general map published in 1916 by the Japanese Army Survbey Dept., and map published in 1966 by the Construction Research Laboratory and ROK Army Survey Dept., respectively. Conclusion: 1. Classification of Morphology: I have added the historical consideration for development, making the component materials and fossil as the data, to the typical consideration in accordance with the map of summit level, reliefe and slope distribution. In connection with the erosion surface, I have divided into three classification such as high, medium and low-,level landform surfaces which were classified as high and low level landform surfaces in past. furthermore I have divided the low level landform surface two parts, namely upper-parts(200-300m) and bellow-parts(${\pm}100m$). Accordingly, we can recognize the three-parts of erosion surface including the medium level landform surface (500-600m) in this area. (see table 22). In condition with the alluvial surfaces I have classified as two landform surfaces (old and new) which was regarded as one face in past. Meamwhile, under the premise of land use, the synthetic, micro morphological classification based upon the land condition is as per the draw No. 19-1. This is the quite new method of classification which was at first attempted in this country. 2. I have learned that the change of river was most severe at seeing the river meandering rate from Dangjung-ni to Nanjido. As you seee the table and the vertical and horizontal change of river beds is justly proportionable to the river meandering rate. 3. It can be learned at seeing the analysis of component materials of alluvial deposits that the component from each other by areas, however, in the deposits relationship upper stream, and between upper parts and below parts I couldn't always find out the regular ones. 4. Having earthern vessel, shell bone, fossil charcoal and and seaweeds includen in the component materials such as gravel, clay, sand and silt in Dukso and Songpa deposits area. I have become to attempt the compilation of chronicle as yon see in the table 22. 5. In according to hearing of basemen excavation, the bottom set conglomerate beds of Dukso beds of Dukso-beds is 7m and Songpa-beds is 10m. In according to information of dredger it is approx. 20m in the down stream. 6. Making these two beds as the standard beds, I have compared it to other beds. 7 The coarse sand beds which is covering the clay-beds of Dukso-beds and Nanjidobeds is shown the existence of so-called erosion period which formed the gap among the alluvial deposits of stratum. The former has been proved by the sorting, bedding and roundness which was supplied by the main stream and later by the branch stream, respectively. 8. If the clay-beds of Dukeo-bed and Songpa-bed is called as being transgressive overlap, by the Eustatic movement after glacial age, the bottom set conglomerate beds shall be called as being regressive overlap at the holocene. This has the closest relationship with the basin formation movement of Seoul besides the Eustatic movement. 9. The silt-beds which is the main component of deposits of flood plain, is regarded as being deposited at the Holocene in the comb ceramic and plain pottery ages. This has the closest relationship with the change of river course and river beds.

A Study on the Improvement Plans of Police Fire Investigation (경찰화재조사의 개선방안에 관한 연구)

  • SeoMoon, Su-Cheol
    • Journal of Korean Institute of Fire Investigation
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.103-121
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    • 2006
  • We are living in more comfortable circumstances with the social developments and the improvement of the standard of living, but, on the other hand, we are exposed to an increase of the occurrences of tires on account of large-sized, higher stories, deeper underground building and the use of various energy resources. The materials of the floor in a residence modern society have been going through various alterations in accordance with the uses of a residence and are now used as final goods in interioring the bottom of apartments, houses and shops. There are so many kinds of materials you usually come in contact with, but in the first place, we need to make an experiment on the spread of the fire with the hypocaust used as the floors of apartments, etc. and the floor covers you usually can get easily. We, scientific investigators, can get in contact with the accidents caused by incendiarism or an accidental fire closely connected with petroleum stuffs on the floor materials that give rise to lots of problems. on this account, I'd like to propose that we conduct an experiment on fire shapes by each petroleum stuff and that discriminate an accidental tire from incendiarism. In an investigation, it seems that finding a live coal could be an essential part of clearing up the cause of a tire but it could not be the cause of a fire itself. And besides, all sorts of tire cases or fire accidents have some kind of legislation and standard to minimize and at an early stage cope with the damage by tires. That is to say, we are supposed to install each kind of electric apparatus, automatic alarm equipment, automatic fire extinguisher in order to protect ourselves from the danger of fires and check them at any time and also escape urgently in case of fire-outbreaking or build a tire-proof construction to prevent flames from proliferating to the neighboring areas. Namely, you should take several factors into consideration to investigate a cause of a case or an accident related to fire. That means it's not in reason for one investigator or one investigative team to make clear of the starting part and the cause of a tire. accordingly, in this thesis, explanations would be given set limits to the judgement and verification on the cause of a fire and the concrete tire-spreading part through investigation on the very spot that a fire broke out. The fire-discernment would also be focused on the early stage fire-spreading part fire-outbreaking resources, and I think the realities of police tire investigations and the problems are still a matter of debate. The cause of a fire must be examined into by logical judgement on the basis of abundant scientific knowledge and experience covering the whole of fire phenomena. The judgement of the cause should be made with fire-spreading situation at the spot as the central figure and in case of verifying, you are supposed to prove by the situational proof from the traces of the tire-spreading to the fire-outbreaking sources. The causal relation on a fire-outbreak should not be proved by arbitrary opinion far from concrete facts, and also there is much chance of making mistakes if you draw deduction from a coincidence. It is absolutely necessary you observe in an objective attitude and grasp the situation of a tire in the investigation of the cause. Having a look at the spot with a prejudice is not allowed. The source of tire-outbreak itself is likely to be considered as the cause of a tire and that makes us doubt about the results according to interests of the independent investigators. So to speak, they set about investigations, the police investigation in the hope of it not being incendiarism, the fire department in the hope of it not being problems in installments or equipments, insurance companies in the hope of it being any incendiarism, electric fields in the hope of it not being electric defects, the gas-related in the hope of it not being gas problems. You could not look forward to more fair investigation and break off their misgivings. It is because the firing source itself is known as the cause of a fire and civil or criminal responsibilities are respected to the firing source itself. On this occasion, investigating the cause of a fire should be conducted with research, investigation, emotion independent, and finally you should clear up the cause with the results put together.

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A Study on Interactions of Competitive Promotions Between the New and Used Cars (신차와 중고차간 프로모션의 상호작용에 대한 연구)

  • Chang, Kwangpil
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.83-98
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    • 2012
  • In a market where new and used cars are competing with each other, we would run the risk of obtaining biased estimates of cross elasticity between them if we focus on only new cars or on only used cars. Unfortunately, most of previous studies on the automobile industry have focused on only new car models without taking into account the effect of used cars' pricing policy on new cars' market shares and vice versa, resulting in inadequate prediction of reactive pricing in response to competitors' rebate or price discount. However, there are some exceptions. Purohit (1992) and Sullivan (1990) looked into both new and used car markets at the same time to examine the effect of new car model launching on the used car prices. But their studies have some limitations in that they employed the average used car prices reported in NADA Used Car Guide instead of actual transaction prices. Some of the conflicting results may be due to this problem in the data. Park (1998) recognized this problem and used the actual prices in his study. His work is notable in that he investigated the qualitative effect of new car model launching on the pricing policy of the used car in terms of reinforcement of brand equity. The current work also used the actual price like Park (1998) but the quantitative aspect of competitive price promotion between new and used cars of the same model was explored. In this study, I develop a model that assumes that the cross elasticity between new and used cars of the same model is higher than those amongst new cars and used cars of the different model. Specifically, I apply the nested logit model that assumes the car model choice at the first stage and the choice between new and used cars at the second stage. This proposed model is compared to the IIA (Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives) model that assumes that there is no decision hierarchy but that new and used cars of the different model are all substitutable at the first stage. The data for this study are drawn from Power Information Network (PIN), an affiliate of J.D. Power and Associates. PIN collects sales transaction data from a sample of dealerships in the major metropolitan areas in the U.S. These are retail transactions, i.e., sales or leases to final consumers, excluding fleet sales and including both new car and used car sales. Each observation in the PIN database contains the transaction date, the manufacturer, model year, make, model, trim and other car information, the transaction price, consumer rebates, the interest rate, term, amount financed (when the vehicle is financed or leased), etc. I used data for the compact cars sold during the period January 2009- June 2009. The new and used cars of the top nine selling models are included in the study: Mazda 3, Honda Civic, Chevrolet Cobalt, Toyota Corolla, Hyundai Elantra, Ford Focus, Volkswagen Jetta, Nissan Sentra, and Kia Spectra. These models in the study accounted for 87% of category unit sales. Empirical application of the nested logit model showed that the proposed model outperformed the IIA (Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives) model in both calibration and holdout samples. The other comparison model that assumes choice between new and used cars at the first stage and car model choice at the second stage turned out to be mis-specfied since the dissimilarity parameter (i.e., inclusive or categroy value parameter) was estimated to be greater than 1. Post hoc analysis based on estimated parameters was conducted employing the modified Lanczo's iterative method. This method is intuitively appealing. For example, suppose a new car offers a certain amount of rebate and gains market share at first. In response to this rebate, a used car of the same model keeps decreasing price until it regains the lost market share to maintain the status quo. The new car settle down to a lowered market share due to the used car's reaction. The method enables us to find the amount of price discount to main the status quo and equilibrium market shares of the new and used cars. In the first simulation, I used Jetta as a focal brand to see how its new and used cars set prices, rebates or APR interactively assuming that reactive cars respond to price promotion to maintain the status quo. The simulation results showed that the IIA model underestimates cross elasticities, resulting in suggesting less aggressive used car price discount in response to new cars' rebate than the proposed nested logit model. In the second simulation, I used Elantra to reconfirm the result for Jetta and came to the same conclusion. In the third simulation, I had Corolla offer $1,000 rebate to see what could be the best response for Elantra's new and used cars. Interestingly, Elantra's used car could maintain the status quo by offering lower price discount ($160) than the new car ($205). In the future research, we might want to explore the plausibility of the alternative nested logit model. For example, the NUB model that assumes choice between new and used cars at the first stage and brand choice at the second stage could be a possibility even though it was rejected in the current study because of mis-specification (A dissimilarity parameter turned out to be higher than 1). The NUB model may have been rejected due to true mis-specification or data structure transmitted from a typical car dealership. In a typical car dealership, both new and used cars of the same model are displayed. Because of this fact, the BNU model that assumes brand choice at the first stage and choice between new and used cars at the second stage may have been favored in the current study since customers first choose a dealership (brand) then choose between new and used cars given this market environment. However, suppose there are dealerships that carry both new and used cars of various models, then the NUB model might fit the data as well as the BNU model. Which model is a better description of the data is an empirical question. In addition, it would be interesting to test a probabilistic mixture model of the BNU and NUB on a new data set.

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