• 제목/요약/키워드: markov processes

Search Result 143, Processing Time 0.023 seconds

On the harris ergodicity of a class of markov processes

  • Lee, Chan-Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Mathematical Society
    • /
    • v.32 no.1
    • /
    • pp.85-92
    • /
    • 1995
  • Supppose ${X_n}$ is a Markov process taking values in some arbitrary state space $(S, F)$ with temporarily homogeneous transition probabilities $p^n(x, A) = P(X_n \in $A\mid$X_0 = x), x \in S, A \in F$. Write $p(x, A) for p^1(x, A)$.

  • PDF

Numerical Iteration for Stationary Probabilities of Markov Chains

  • Na, Seongryong
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
    • /
    • v.21 no.6
    • /
    • pp.513-520
    • /
    • 2014
  • We study numerical methods to obtain the stationary probabilities of continuous-time Markov chains whose embedded chains are periodic. The power method is applied to the balance equations of the periodic embedded Markov chains. The power method can have the convergence speed of exponential rate that is ambiguous in its application to original continuous-time Markov chains since the embedded chains are discrete-time processes. An illustrative example is presented to investigate the numerical iteration of this paper. A numerical study shows that a rapid and stable solution for stationary probabilities can be achieved regardless of periodicity and initial conditions.

Oil Price Forecasting : A Markov Switching Approach with Unobserved Component Model

  • Nam, Si-Kyung;Sohn, Young-Woo
    • Management Science and Financial Engineering
    • /
    • v.14 no.2
    • /
    • pp.105-118
    • /
    • 2008
  • There are many debates on the topic of the relationship between oil prices and economic growth. Through the repeated processes of conformations and contractions on the subject, two main issues are developed; one is how to define and drive oil shocks from oil prices, and the other is how to specify an econometric model to reflect the asymmetric relations between oil prices and output growth. The study, thus, introduces the unobserved component model to pick up the oil shocks and a first-order Markov switching model to reflect the asymmetric features. We finally employ unique oil shock variables from the stochastic trend components of oil prices and adapt four lags of the mean growth Markov Switching model. The results indicate that oil shocks exert more impact to recessionary state than expansionary state and the supply-side oil shocks are more persistent and significant than the demand-side shocks.

Application of Hidden Markov Model Using AR Coefficients to Machine Diagnosis (AR계수를 이용한 Hidden Markov Model의 기계상태진단 적용)

  • 이종민;황요하;김승종;송창섭
    • Transactions of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering
    • /
    • v.13 no.1
    • /
    • pp.48-55
    • /
    • 2003
  • Hidden Markov Model(HMM) has a doubly embedded stochastic process with an underlying stochastic process that can be observed through another set of stochastic processes. This structure of HMM is useful for modeling vector sequence that doesn't look like a stochastic process but has a hidden stochastic process. So, HMM approach has become popular in various areas in last decade. The increasing popularity of HMM is based on two facts : rich mathematical structure and proven accuracy on critical application. In this paper, we applied continuous HMM (CHMM) approach with AR coefficient to detect and predict the chatter of lathe bite and to diagnose the wear of oil Journal bearing using rotor shaft displacement. Our examples show that CHMM approach is very efficient method for machine health monitoring and prediction.

An Approximate algorithm for the analysis of the n heterogeneous IBP/D/l queuing model (다수의 이질적 IBP/D/1큐잉 모형의 분석을 위한 근사 알고리즘)

  • 홍석원
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
    • /
    • v.4 no.3
    • /
    • pp.549-555
    • /
    • 2000
  • We propose an approximate algorithm to analyze the queuing system with n bursty and heterogeneous arrival processes. Each input process is modeled by Interrupted Bernoulli Process(IBP). We approximate N arrival processes by a single state variable and subsequently simplify the transition probability matrix of the Markov chain associated with these N arrival processes. Using this single state variable of arrival processes, we describe the state of the queuing system and analyze the system numerically with the reduced transition probability matrix. We compute the queue length distribution, the delay distribution, and the loss probability. Comparisons with simulation data show that the approximation algorithm has a good accuracy.

  • PDF

A Localized Adaptive QoS Routing Scheme Using POMDP and Exploration Bonus Techniques (POMDP와 Exploration Bonus를 이용한 지역적이고 적응적인 QoS 라우팅 기법)

  • Han Jeong-Soo
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
    • /
    • v.31 no.3B
    • /
    • pp.175-182
    • /
    • 2006
  • In this paper, we propose a Localized Adaptive QoS Routing Scheme using POMDP and Exploration Bonus Techniques. Also, this paper shows that CEA technique using expectation values can be simply POMDP problem, because performing dynamic programming to solve a POMDP is highly computationally expensive. And we use Exploration Bonus to search detour path better than current path. For this, we proposed the algorithm(SEMA) to search multiple path. Expecially, we evaluate performances of service success rate and average hop count with $\phi$ and k performance parameters, which is defined as exploration count and intervals. As result, we knew that the larger $\phi$, the better detour path search. And increasing n increased the amount of exploration.

First-Passage Time Distribution of Discrete Time Stochastic Process with 0-state

  • Park, Young-Sool
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
    • /
    • v.8 no.2
    • /
    • pp.119-125
    • /
    • 1997
  • We handle the stochastic processes of independent and identically distributed random variables. But random variables are usually dependent among themselves in actual life. So in this paper, we find out a new process not satisfying Markov property. We investigate the probability mass functions and study on the probability of the first-passage time. Also we find out the average frequency of continuous successes in from 0 to n time.

  • PDF

A MARKOV DECISION PROCESSES FORMULATION FOR THE LINEAR SEARCH PROBLEM

  • Balkhi, Z.T.;Benkherouf, L.
    • Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
    • /
    • v.19 no.1
    • /
    • pp.201-206
    • /
    • 1994
  • The linear search problem is concerned with finding a hiden target on the real line R. The position of the target governed by some probability distribution. It is desired to find the target in the least expected search time. This problem has been formulated as an optimization problem by a number of authors without making use of Markov Decision Process (MDP) theory. It is the aim of the paper to give a (MDP) formulation to the search problem which we feel is both natural and easy to follow.

  • PDF