• Title/Summary/Keyword: long-term change

Search Result 2,253, Processing Time 0.03 seconds

The Analysis of Effect in Order to Consider Combined Heat and Power Capacity in the Basic Plan of Long Term Electricity Supply & Demand (전력수급기본계획에 열병합발전 설비 반영시의 효과분석에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Yong-Ba;Moon, Jung-Ho;Yeon, Jun-Hee;Jung, Hyun-Sung;Woo, Sung-Min;Kim, Mi-Ye
    • Journal of Energy Engineering
    • /
    • v.16 no.1 s.49
    • /
    • pp.22-31
    • /
    • 2007
  • This paper addresses methodology in order to consider CHP (Combined Heat and Power) capacity in the Basic Plan of Long Term Electricity Supply & Demand and presents effects on it. The method performs state in extent that do not change maximum in the Basic Plan of Long Term Electricity Supply & Demand. For analysis that occurs some advantage this method compares with Basic Plan of Long Term Electricity Supply & Demand. It includes EES (Expected Energy Served), Fuel consumption, amount of $CO_{2}$ emission reduction.

Preliminary Study on the Coordination of the Repair works' items of the Long Term Repair Plan in Apartment Housing (공동주택 장기수선계획 수립기준 항목 조정에 관한 기초 연구)

  • Lee, Kang-Hee
    • Journal of the Korean housing association
    • /
    • v.27 no.4
    • /
    • pp.13-22
    • /
    • 2016
  • The long term plan for apartment housing has a important role to make a decision making whether a repair work should be done or not. But, items for repair works are so various that field workers could not understand the context or plan the repair cost and time. These difficulties are drawn from the number of repair items, duplicated application and meaning, new material application and technology time-gap. Therefore, it needs to change or coordinate the repair items to improve the repair condition, reflecting the current material level or repair technologies. In this paper, it aimed at coordination of the repair items through the repair recording sheet which was surveyed in 22 metropolitan areas of Seoul, conducted between 2011 and 2014. The surveyed data are classified into six categories such as building exterior, building interior and so on, according to long term repair plan and the number of data are 1,918. It analyzed the appearing word for repair-concerned and compared the existing items of the long term plan. Items of building exterior are proposed as roof, exterior wall and painting. Building interior has a little meaning to propose the repair items. The water supply facilities are proper to keep the existing repair items. Items of the outdoor facilities could not need a sign board, drainage root and PVC sheath. Through this study, we can coordinate the repair items in apartment and provide the repair item and cost level.

Experimental Study on Correlation Analysis of Air-void, Air-spacing factor and Long-term Durability for Roller-compacted Concrete pavement (롤러 전압 콘크리트 포장의 공기량 및 기포간격계수와 장기 내구성의 상관관계 분석을 위한 실험적 연구)

  • Lee, Jun Hee;Lee, Seung Woo
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
    • /
    • v.18 no.1
    • /
    • pp.63-72
    • /
    • 2016
  • PURPOSES : The use of roller-compacted concrete pavement (RCCP) is an environmentally friendly method of construction that utilizes the aggregate interlock effect by means of a hydration reaction and roller compacting, demonstrating a superb structural performance with a relatively small unit water content and unit cement content. However, even if an excellent structural performance was secured through a previous study, the verification research on the environmental load and long-term durability was conducted under unsatisfactory conditions. In order to secure longterm durability, the construction of an appropriate internal air-void structure is required. In this study, a method of improving the long-term durability of RCCP will be suggested by analyzing the internal air-void structure and relevant durability of roller-compacted concrete. METHODS : The method of improving the long-term durability involves measurements of the air content, air voids, and air-spacing factor in RCCP that experiences a change in terms of the kind of air-entraining agent and chemical admixture proportions. This test should be conducted on the basis of test criteria such as ASTM C 457, 672, and KS F 2456. RESULTS : Freezing, thawing, and scaling resistance tests of roller compacted concrete without a chemical admixture showed that it was weak. However, as a result of conducting air entraining (AE) with an AE agent, a large amount of air was distributed with a range of 2~3%, and an air void spacing factor ranging from 200 to $300{\mu}m$ (close to $250{\mu}m$) coming from PCA was secured. Accordingly, the freezing and thawing resistance was improved, with a relative dynamic elastic modulus of more than 80%, and the scaling resistance was improved under the appropriate AE agent content rate. CONCLUSIONS : The long-term durability of RCCP has a direct relationship with the air-void spacing factor, and it can be secured only by ensuring the air void spacing factor through air entraining with the inclusion of an AE agent.

Assessment of predictability of categorical probabilistic long-term forecasts and its quantification for efficient water resources management (효율적인 수자원관리를 위한 범주형 확률장기예보의 예측력 평가 및 정량화)

  • Son, Chanyoung;Jeong, Yerim;Han, Soohee;Cho, Younghyun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
    • /
    • v.50 no.8
    • /
    • pp.563-577
    • /
    • 2017
  • As the uncertainty of precipitation increases due to climate change, seasonal forecasting and the use of weather forecasts become essential for efficient water resources management. In this study, the categorical probabilistic long-term forecasts implemented by KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration) since June 2014 was evaluated using assessment indicators of Hit Rate, Reliability Diagram, and Relative Operating Curve (ROC) and a technique for obtaining quantitative precipitation estimates based on probabilistic forecasts was proposed. The probabilistic long-term forecasts showed its maximum predictability of 48% and the quantified precipitation estimates were closely matched with actual observations; maximum correlation coefficient (R) in predictability evaluation for 100% accurate and actual weather forecasts were 0.98 and 0.71, respectively. A precipitation quantification approach utilizing probabilistic forecasts proposed in this study is expected to enable water management considering the uncertainty of precipitation. This method is also expected to be a useful tool for supporting decision-making in the long-term planning for water resources management and reservoir operations.

Analysis of Watershed Runoff and Sediment Characteristics due to Spatio-Temporal Change in Land Uses Using SWAT Model (SWAT 모형을 이용한 시.공간적 토지 이용변화에 따른 유량 및 유사량 특성분석)

  • Shin, Yong-Chul;Lim, Kyoung-Jae;Kim, Ki-Sung;Choi, Joong-Dae
    • KCID journal
    • /
    • v.14 no.1
    • /
    • pp.50-56
    • /
    • 2007
  • In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to assess spatiotemporal effects on watershed runoff and sediment characteristics due to land uses changes from 1999 to 2002 at the small watershed, located in Chuncheon-si, Gangwon province. The annual average flow rate of Scenario I (long-term simulation using land use of 1990), II (long-term simulation using land use of 1996), III(long-term simulation using land use of 200) and IV(simulation using land use of 1990, 1995, and 2000) in long-term simulation) using the SWAT model were 29,997,043 m3, 29,992,628 m3, 29,811,191 m3 and 29,931,238 m3, respectively. It was shown that there was no significant changes in estimated flow rate because no significant changes in land uses between 1990 and 2000 were observed. The annual average sediment loads of Scenarios I, II, III and IV for 15 year period were 36,643 kg/ha, 45,340 kg/ha , 27,195 kg/ha and 35,545 kg/ha, respectively. The estimated annual sediment loads from Scenarios I, II, and III, were different from that from the scenario IV, considering spatio-temporal changes in land use and meterological changes over the years, by 10%, 127%, and temporal changes in land use and meterological changes over the years, by 10%, 127%, and 77%. This can be explained in land use changes in high soil erosion potential areas, such as upland areas, within the study watershed. The comparison indicates that changes in land uses upland areas, within the study watershed. The comparison indicates that changes in land uses can affect on sediment yields by more than 10%, which could exceed the safety factor of 10% in Total Maximum Daily Loads (TMDLs). It is, therefore, recommended that not only the temporal analysis with the weather input data but also spatial one with different land uses need to be considered in long-term hydrology and sediment simulating using the SWAT model

  • PDF

Prediction of Long-Term River Bed Changes in Saemangeum Area (새만금지구 장기 하상변동 예측)

  • Jung, Jae-Sang;Song, Hyun Ku;Lee, Jong Sup;Kim, Gweon Su
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
    • /
    • 2016.05a
    • /
    • pp.394-398
    • /
    • 2016
  • Numerical analysis was conducted using Delft3D developed by Deltares in Netherlands to predict long-term river bed changes in Saemangeum Area. Tidal flow, discharge through the drainage gates and river bed changes in numerical model was verified by comparing to the results of field observation and hydraulic experiments. We calculated long-term river bed changes in Saemangeum area for 10 years from 2031 to 2040 after completion of development in Saemangeum. It is shown that 70 cm and 139 cm of accumulation occur in estuaries of Dongjin River and Mankyong River, respectively. Variation of flood level was also investigated considering long-term river bed changes. There was no change in estuary of Dongjin River but maximum flood level in estuary of Mankyong River increased 81 cm.

  • PDF

INTRODUCTION OF COMS SYSTEM

  • Baek, Myung-Jin;Han, Cho-Young
    • Proceedings of the KSRS Conference
    • /
    • v.1
    • /
    • pp.56-59
    • /
    • 2006
  • In this paper, Korea's first geostationary Communication, Ocean and Meteorological Satellte(COMS) program is introduced. COMS program is one of the Korea National Space Programs to develop and operate a pure civilian satellite of practical-use for the compound missions of meteorological observation and ocean monitoring, and space test of experimentally developed communication payload on the geostationary orbit. The target launch of COMS is scheduled at the end of 2008. COMS program is international cooperation program between KARI and ASTRIUM SAS and funded by Korean Government. COMS satellite is a hybrid satellite in the geostationary orbit, which accommodates multiple payloads of MI(Meteorological Imager), GOCI(Geostationary Ocean Color Imager), and the Ka band Satellite Communication Payload into a single spacecraft platform. The MI mission is to continuously extract meteorological products with high resolution and multi-spectral imager, to detect special weather such as storm, flood, yellow sand, and to extract data on long-term change of sea surface temperature and cloud. The GOCI mission aims at monitoring of marine environments around Korean peninsula, production of fishery information (Chlorophyll, etc.), and monitoring of long-term/short-term change of marine ecosystem. The goals of the Ka band satellite communication mission are to in-orbit verify the performances of advanced communication technologies and to experiment wide-band multi-media communication service mandatory.

  • PDF

ON THE STRUCTURAL CHANGE OF THE LEE-CARTER MODEL AND ITS ACTUARIAL APPLICATION

  • Wiratama, Endy Filintas;Kim, So-Yeun;Ko, Bangwon
    • East Asian mathematical journal
    • /
    • v.35 no.3
    • /
    • pp.305-318
    • /
    • 2019
  • Over the past decades, the Lee-Carter model [1] has attracted much attention from various demography-related fields in order to project the future mortality rates. In the Lee-Carter model, the speed of mortality improvement is stochastically modeled by the so-called mortality index and is used to forecast the future mortality rates based on the time series analysis. However, the modeling is applied to long time series and thus an important structural change might exist, leading to potentially large long-term forecasting errors. Therefore, in this paper, we are interested in detecting the structural change of the Lee-Carter model and investigating the actuarial implications. For the purpose, we employ the tests proposed by Coelho and Nunes [2] and analyze the mortality data for six countries including Korea since 1970. Also, we calculate life expectancies and whole life insurance premiums by taking into account the structural change found in the Korean male mortality rates. Our empirical result shows that more caution needs to be paid to the Lee-Carter modeling and its actuarial applications.

Analysis of the Impact of the 8th Basic Plan for Long-term Electricity Supply and Demand on the District Heating Business Through Optimal Simulation of Gas CHP (가스 열병합발전 최적 시뮬레이션 분석을 통한 집단에너지 사업자에 미치는 8차 전력 수급계획의 영향 분석)

  • Kim, Young Kuk;Oh, Kwang Min;Kim, Lae Hyun
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
    • /
    • v.56 no.5
    • /
    • pp.655-662
    • /
    • 2018
  • To respond effectively to climate change following the launch of the new climate system, the government is seeking to expand the use of distributed power resources. Among them, the district heating system centered on Combined Heat and Power (CHP) is accepted as the most realistic alternative. On the other hand, the government recently announced the change of energy paradigm focusing on eco-friendly power generation from the base power generation through $8^{th}$ Basic Plan for Long-term Electricity Supply and Demand(BPE). In this study, we analyzed the quantitative effects of profit and loss on the CHP operating business by changing patterns of the heat production, caused by the change of energy paradigm. To do this, the power market long-term simulation was carried out according to the $7^{th}$ and $8^{th}$ BPE respectively, using the commercialized power market integrated analysis program. In addition, the CHP operating model is organized to calculate the power and heat production level for each CHP operation mode by utilizing the operating performance of 830MW class CHP in Seoul metropolitan area. Based on this, the operation optimization is performed for realizing the maximum operating profit and loss during the life-cycle of CHP through the commercialized integrated energy optimization program. As a result, it can be seen that the change of the energy paradigm of the government increased the level of the ordered power supply by Korean Power Exchange(KPX), decreased the cost of the heat production, and increased the operating contribution margin by 90.9 billion won for the 30 years.

Impact of Adjusted Out-of-Pocket Maximum Rules of Long-stay Admissions in Long-Term Care Hospitals (요양병원 장기입원에 대한 본인부담상한제 개편 영향 분석)

  • Yeojeong Gu;Seungji Lim
    • Korea Journal of Hospital Management
    • /
    • v.29 no.2
    • /
    • pp.37-47
    • /
    • 2024
  • Purpose: This study aimed to determine the effect of adjusted out-of-pocket maximum rules in the 'differential co-payment ceiling', which means having a higher burden of co-payment, that expanded to the entire ceiling level in long-stay admission patients in long-term care hospitals(LTCH). Methodology: We used health insurance claim data between January 1, 2022, and December 31, 2022 received from the National Health Insurance Service. The study populations were inpatients in long-term care hospitals more than 1 days during the study period. We performed the difference in characteristics of the LTCH patient of the differential and general ceiling by the chi-square test. We estimated the change of the population, cost, and co-payments per person under the assumption of restructuring. Finding: Based on adjusted out-of-pocket maximum rules in 2023, it was expected that the number of benefits decreases at the high-income level while increasing at the low-income level. The burden of health expenditure after reimbursement of co-payment ceiling, is expected to increase by 65.1% in the highest medical necessity, whereas the low medical necessity would decreases compared to 2022. Practical Implications: The results demonstrate that the current out-of-pocket maximum rules do not reflect the needs of medical necessity. This study suggested the need to reflect the medical necessity in LTCH on the out-of-pocket maximum rules in the future.

  • PDF