• Title/Summary/Keyword: long-run

Search Result 1,238, Processing Time 0.036 seconds

The Dynamics of Monetarists Versus Keynesians Perspectives and Their Role in Economic Growth of Pakistan

  • MANSOOR, Abdul;HUSSAIN, Syed Tahir;RAIS, Syed Imran;BASHIR, Malik Fahim;TARIQ, Yasir Bin;KAUSAR, Maria
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
    • /
    • v.9 no.2
    • /
    • pp.61-69
    • /
    • 2022
  • The study intends to investigate a short-run and a long-run causality among money, income, and prices in the Keynesian and Monetarists framework. This study emphasizes the importance of unrecorded money, which exists alongside legal monetary assets and plays a dual function in determining economic prosperity. The underground economy, which is a hidden component of aggregate economic activity, is determined using Tanzi's monetary approach (Tanzi, 1980). This research uses a time series of annual data from 1990 to 2019 for this purpose. The data is extracted from the World Bank database for the monetary and development indicators. The study keeping in view the trending nature in data follows a unit root testing followed by the Autoregressive Distributive Lag Model (ARDL) to assess the long and short-run dynamics of causality among the variables. In both the pricing and income equations, the study finds a significant level link among the variables; however, there is no evidence of the presence of a level association in the money equation. The short-run causal relationship provides evidence of bi-directional causation between the supply of money and national income. The outcome of this study advise that though the view point of both the Monetarist and Keynesian school holds in both short and long run, however, in Pakistan only the Monetarists' role of money supply and income holds in Pakistan. This evidence would be of precise interest to the policy-makers.

On Long Wave Induced by a Sub-sea Landslide Using a 2D Numerical Wave Tank

  • Koo, Weon-Cheol;Kim, Moo-Hyun
    • Journal of Ocean Engineering and Technology
    • /
    • v.21 no.5
    • /
    • pp.1-8
    • /
    • 2007
  • A long wave induced by a Gaussian-shape submarine landslide is simulated by a 2D fully nonlinear numerical wave tank (NWT). The NWT is based on the boundary element method and the mixed Eulerian/Lagrangian approach. Using the NWT, physical characteristics of land-slide tsunami, including wave generation, propagation, particle kinematics, hydrodynamic pressure, run-up and depression, are simulated for the early stage of long wave generation and propagation. Various sliding mass heights are applied to the developed model for a systematic sensitivity analysis. In particular, the fully nonlinear NWT results are compared with linear results (exact body-boundary conditions with linear free-surface conditions) to identify the nonlinear effects in the respective cases.

An optimal management policy for the surplus process with investments (재투자가 있는 잉여금 과정의 최적 운용정책)

  • Lim, Se-Jin;Choi, Seungkyoung;Lee, Eui-Yong
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
    • /
    • v.29 no.7
    • /
    • pp.1165-1172
    • /
    • 2016
  • In this paper, a surplus process with investments is introduced. Whenever the level of the surplus reaches a target value V > 0, amount S($0{\leq}S{\leq}V$) is invested into other business. After assigning three costs to the surplus process, a reward per unit amount of the investment, a penalty of the surplus being empty and the keeping (opportunity) cost per unit amount of the surplus per unit time, we obtain the long-run average cost per unit time to manage the surplus. We prove that there exists a unique value of S minimizing the long-run average cost per unit time for a given value of V, and also that there exists a unique value of V minimizing the long-run average cost per unit time for a given value of S. These two facts show that an optimal investment policy of the surplus exists when we manage the surplus in the long-run.

Statistical Tests and Applications for the Stability of an Estimated Cointegrating Vector (공적분벡터의 안정성에 대한 실증연구)

  • Kim, Tae-Ho;Hwang, Sung-Hye;Kim, Mi-Yun
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
    • /
    • v.18 no.3
    • /
    • pp.503-519
    • /
    • 2005
  • Cointegration test is usually performed under the assumption that the cointegrating vector is constant for the whole sample period. Most previous studies have used conventional cointegration methods in testing for a stable long-run equilibrium relation among related variables. However they have overlooked that the long-run equilibrium may not the unique and the stable relation may not be guaranteed. This study develops the additional statistical tests for the stability of the estimated cointegrating vector. Three tests for the parameter stability of a cointegrated regression model are utilized and applied to identify the types of variations in the long-run relation between the domestic unemployment and the rotated macroeconomic variables of interest. The present paper finds that, there exists a stable but, time-varying long-run relation between those. The observed variation in cointegrating relations is generally characterized by a discrete one-time shift, rather than a gradually evolving random walk process which is attributable to the IMF financial and economic crisis.

Salary and Wage Earners's Households' Perceptions on the Eating-out (외식에 대한 근로자 가구의 인식)

  • Kim, Young-Suk;Mo, Soo-Won
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Food Culture
    • /
    • v.19 no.6
    • /
    • pp.630-639
    • /
    • 2004
  • Korean households' expenditures on foodservices are on the steady increase. This paper aims to examine the foodservice expenditures of salary and wage earners's households by income decile group. This is analysed through comparing foodservice expenditures with private education expenditures because households' expenditures are likely to be weighted in favor of eating-out rather than private education. We also model the consumption function in terms of income and price, examining the responsiveness of private education demand and eating-out demand to changes in income and price using econometric methods such as regression, rolling regression and impulse response. This paper show that foodservice demand increases more than the private education does in the long-run. The result indicates that households are likely to evaluate the desire for foodservice more important than private education contrary to our expectations in the long-run. The impulse response analysis, however, suggests that households tend to increase private education expenditures rather than eating-out expenditures in the short-run.

ON THE DETERMINANTS OF ENTREPRENEURSHIP IN MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

  • Zmami, Mourad;Salha, Ousama Ben
    • International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
    • /
    • v.21 no.2
    • /
    • pp.181-187
    • /
    • 2021
  • The purpose of this study is to examine empirically the short- and long-run determinants of entrepreneurial activity in a sample of 15 the Middle East and North African economies between 2006 and 2018. More specifically, four groups of determinants are considered in the analysis, namely economic, demographic, business environment, and institutional. Given the autoregressive feature of the entrepreneurial activity process, a dynamic panel data model is estimated using the system GMM estimator. Findings reveal that unemployment, trade openness, population density, and economic freedom are the main drivers of new business creation in the short-run, while the cost and number of procedures to start a new business negatively affect entrepreneurship. In the long-run, the same findings hold true. Moreover, education and political stability and the absence of violence/terrorism positively affect entrepreneurial activity. Policy recommendations are accordingly designed.

Numerical Simulation for Currents and Sedimentation due to Tsunami

  • Imamura, Fumihiko
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers Conference
    • /
    • 1992.08a
    • /
    • pp.157-157
    • /
    • 1992
  • Accuracy of numerical simulations of tsunami has a often been discussed in terms of the final run-up heights and inundated areas. The present technique of simulation is said to yield accurate results within an error of 15 % as long as run-up height concerns.(omitted)

  • PDF

The Volume and Price Relationship of the Oyster Market in Producing Area (굴 산지시장의 위판량과 가격관계)

  • 강석규
    • The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
    • /
    • v.32 no.1
    • /
    • pp.1-14
    • /
    • 2001
  • The research on the price-volume relation in the market is very important because it examines into regular phenomenon revealed by market participants including producers and middlemen. The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between price and trading volume in the oyster producing market. In order to accomplish the purpose of this study, the contents of empirical analysis include the time series properties of price and trading volume, the short-term and long-term relationships between price and trading volume, and the determinants of trading volume. The data used in this study correspond to daily price and trading volume covering the time period from January 1998 to April 2001. The empirical results can be summarized as follows : First, price and trading volume follow random walks and they are integrated of order 1. The first difference is necessary for satisfying the stationary conditions. Second, price and trading volume are cointegrated. This long-run relationship is stronger from trading volume to price. Third, error correction model suggests that feedback effect exists in the long-run and that price tends to lead trading volume by about five days in the short run, that is, to be required period by digging, conveying, and peeling oystershell for selling oyster. Fourth, price and price volatility is a determinant of trading volume. In particular, trading volume is a negative function of price. It is believed that the conclusion drawn from this study would provide a useful standard for the policy makers in charge of reducing the oyster price volatility risk caused by trading volume(selling quantities).

  • PDF

Triffin Dilemma and International Monetary System : Evidence from Pooled Mean Group Estimation

  • Guan, Long-Fei;Lau, Wee-Yeap
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
    • /
    • v.5 no.2
    • /
    • pp.5-14
    • /
    • 2018
  • This study is motivated based on concern from some renowned scholars and central bankers whom have raised the issue of the sustainability of the International Monetary System (IMS). Using the panel data set of four major international currencies, USD, JPY, EUR and GBP from 1973 to 2013 with Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimator, to re-examine whether Triffin dilemma still exists through investigating the relationship between the reserve share, current account balance and real effective exchange rate. The evidence from the result indicates that Triffin dilemma exists only in the long run, and shows that in the long-run, current account balance is proportionate to the increased real effective exchange rate while varies inversely with the reserve shares. However, the estimation for the short-run is not significant to prove the existence of Triffin dilemma. In addition, we investigated the non-dollar panel sample and found that the international monetary system still suffers from Triffin dilemma even without the dollar. To overcome Triffin dilemma, immediate step such as having currency swap mechanism is recommended. In medium term, a multi-polar Monetary System is suggested, and in the longer time, a supranational currency will be used to replace all the currencies in the world.

Evaluating the Investment in the Malaysian Construction Sector in the Long-run Using the Modified Internal Rate of Return: A Markov Chain Approach

  • SARSOUR, Wajeeh Mustafa;SABRI, Shamsul Rijal Muhammad
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
    • /
    • v.7 no.8
    • /
    • pp.281-287
    • /
    • 2020
  • In capital budgeting practices, investment project evaluations based on the net present value (NPV) and the internal rate of return (IRR) represent the traditional evaluation techniques. Compared with the traditional methods, the modified internal rate of return (MIRR) gives the opportunity to evaluate an investment in certain projet, while taking the changes in cash flows over time and issuing shares such as dividing shares, bonuses, and dividend for each end of the investment year into account. Therefore, this study aims to evaluate an investment in the Malaysian construction sector utilizing financial data for 39 public listed companies operating in the Malaysian construction sector over the period from Jan 1, 2007, to December 30, 2018, based on the MIRR method. Stochastic was studied in this study to estimate the estimated probability by applying the Markov chain model to the MIRR method where the transition matrix has two possible movements of either Good (G) or Bad (B). it is found that the long-run probability of getting a good investment is higher than the probability of getting a bad investment in the long-run, where were the probabilities of good and bad are 0.5119, 0.4881, respectively. Hence, investment in the Malaysian construction sector is recommended.