• Title/Summary/Keyword: inherent uncertainty

Search Result 142, Processing Time 0.025 seconds

Parameter and Modeling Uncertainty Analysis of Semi-Distributed Hydrological Model using Markov-Chain Monte Carlo Technique (Markov-Chain Monte Carlo 기법을 이용한 준 분포형 수문모형의 매개변수 및 모형 불확실성 분석)

  • Choi, Jeonghyeon;Jang, Suhyung;Kim, Sangdan
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
    • /
    • v.36 no.5
    • /
    • pp.373-384
    • /
    • 2020
  • Hydrological models are based on a combination of parameters that describe the hydrological characteristics and processes within a watershed. For this reason, the model performance and accuracy are highly dependent on the parameters. However, model uncertainties caused by parameters with stochastic characteristics need to be considered. As a follow-up to the study conducted by Choi et al (2020), who developed a relatively simple semi-distributed hydrological model, we propose a tool to estimate the posterior distribution of model parameters using the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, a type of Markov-Chain Monte Carlo technique, and analyze the uncertainty of model parameters and simulated stream flow. In addition, the uncertainty caused by the parameters of each version is investigated using the lumped and semi-distributed versions of the applied model to the Hapcheon Dam watershed. The results suggest that the uncertainty of the semi-distributed model parameters was relatively higher than that of the lumped model parameters because the spatial variability of input data such as geomorphological and hydrometeorological parameters was inherent to the posterior distribution of the semi-distributed model parameters. Meanwhile, no significant difference existed between the two models in terms of uncertainty of the simulation outputs. The statistical goodness of fit of the simulated stream flows against the observed stream flows showed satisfactory reliability in both the semi-distributed and the lumped models, but the seasonality of the stream flow was reproduced relatively better by the distributed model.

Sensorless Speed Control System Using a Neural Network

  • Huh Sung-Hoe;Lee Kyo-Beum;Kim Dong-Won;Choy Ick;Park Gwi-Tae
    • International Journal of Control, Automation, and Systems
    • /
    • v.3 no.4
    • /
    • pp.612-619
    • /
    • 2005
  • A robust adaptive speed sensorless induction motor direct torque control (DTC) using a neural network (NN) is presented in this paper. The inherent lumped uncertainties of the induction motor DTC system such as parametric uncertainty, external load disturbance and unmodeled dynamics are approximated by the NN. An additional robust control term is introduced to compensate for the reconstruction error. A control law and adaptive laws for the weights in the NN, as well as the bounding constant of the lumped uncertainties are established so that the whole closed-loop system is stable in the sense of Lyapunov. The effect of the speed estimation error is analyzed, and the stability proof of the control system is also proved. Experimental results as well as computer simulations are presented to show the validity and efficiency of the proposed system.

Different approaches towards fuzzy database systems A Survey

  • Rundensteiner, Elke A.;Hawkes, Lois Wright
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
    • /
    • v.3 no.1
    • /
    • pp.65-75
    • /
    • 1993
  • Fuzzy data is a phenomenon often occurring in real life. There is the inherent vagueness of classification terms referring to a continuous scale, the uncertainty of linguistic terms such as "I almost agree" or the vagueness of terms and concepts due to the statistical variability in communication [20] and many more. Previously, such fuzzy data was approximated by non-fuzzy (crisp) data, which obviously did not lead to a correct and precise representation of the real world. Fuzzy set theory has been developed to represent and manipulate fuzzy data [18]. Explicitly managing the degree of fuzziness in databases allows the system to distinguish between what is known, what is not known and what is partially known. Systems in the literature whose specific objective is to handle imprecision in databases present various approaches. This paper is concerned with the different ways uncertainty and imprecision are handled in database design. It outlines the major areas of fuzzification in (relational) database systems.

  • PDF

Uncertainty Fusion of Sensory Information Using Fuzzy Numbers

  • Park, Sangwook;Lee, C. S. George
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems Conference
    • /
    • 1993.06a
    • /
    • pp.1001-1004
    • /
    • 1993
  • The Multisensor Fusion Problem (MFP) deals with the methodologies involved in effectively combining together homogeneous or non-homegeneous information obtained from multiple redundant or disparate sensors in order to perform a task more accurately, efficiently, and reliably. The inherent uncertainties in the sensory information are represented using Fuzzy Numbers, -numbers, and the Uncertainty-Reductive Fusion Technique (URFT) is introduced to combine the multiple sensory information into one consensus -number. The MFP is formulated from the Information Theory perspective where sensors are viewed as information sources with a fixed output alphabet and systems are modeled as a network of information processing and processing and propagating channels. The performance of the URFT is compared with other fusion techniques in solving the 3-Sensor Problem.

  • PDF

A fuzzy SOC based pressure tracking controller design for hydroforming process (Fuzzy SOC를 이용한 하이드로 포밍 고정의 압력제어기 설계)

  • 김문종;박희재;조형석
    • 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
    • /
    • 1990.10a
    • /
    • pp.350-355
    • /
    • 1990
  • A pressure tracking of hydroforming process is considered in this paper. To account for nonlinearities and uncertainty of the process. A fuzzy SOC based iterative learning control algorithm is proposed. A series of experimentals were performed for the pressure tracking control of the process. The experimental results show that regardless of inherent nonlinearties and uncertainties associated with hydraulic system. A good pressure tracking control performance is obtained using the proposed fuzzy learning control algorithm.

  • PDF

Determination of Risk-Adjusted Discount Rate for the Valuation of Technology of Technology Firm (기술기업의 기술가치평가시 위험조정 할인율의 결정)

  • 성웅현
    • Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
    • /
    • v.5 no.1
    • /
    • pp.59-71
    • /
    • 2002
  • Risk, or exposure to uncertainty, is an inherent of risk-adjusted discount rate. It is therefore important part factor in the determination of risk-adjusted discount rate. This paper suggests the method to quantify risk and explains the process how to transfer quantified risk into incremental discount rate. The estimates of underlying risks will help determine the size of appropriate risk-adjusted discount rate with logical and scientific way when the technology valuation is made.

  • PDF

Measurement Accuracy of Oscillation-Based Test of Analog-to-Digital Converters

  • Mrak, Peter;Biasizzo, Anton;Novak, Franc
    • ETRI Journal
    • /
    • v.32 no.1
    • /
    • pp.154-156
    • /
    • 2010
  • Oscillation-based testing of analog-to-digital converters represents a viable option for low-cost built-in self-testing in mixed-signal design. While numerous papers have addressed implementation issues, little attention has been paid to the measurement accuracy. In this letter, we highlight an inherent measurement uncertainty which has to be considered when deriving the parameters from the oscillation frequency.

A Hybrid Query Disambiguation Adaptive Approach for Web Information Retrieval

  • Ibrahim, Roliana;Kamal, Shahid;Ghani, Imran;Jeong, Seung Ryul
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
    • /
    • v.9 no.7
    • /
    • pp.2468-2487
    • /
    • 2015
  • In web searching, trustable and precise results are greatly affected by the inherent uncertainty in the input queries. Queries submitted to search engines are by nature ambiguous and constitute a significant proportion of the instances given to web search engines. Ambiguous queries pose real challenges for the web search engines due to versatility of information. Temporal based approaches whereas somehow reduce the uncertainty in queries but still lack to provide results according to users aspirations. Web search science has created an interest for the researchers to incorporate contextual information for resolving the uncertainty in search results. In this paper, we propose an Adaptive Disambiguation Approach (ADA) of hybrid nature that makes use of both the temporal and contextual information to improve user experience. The proposed hybrid approach presents the search results to the users based on their location and temporal information. A Java based prototype of the systems is developed and evaluated using standard dataset to determine its efficacy in terms of precision, accuracy, recall, and F1-measure. Supported by experimental results, ADA demonstrates better results along all the axes as compared to temporal based approaches.

Marketing Environment and governance mechanisms: Focusing on Manufacturer's Interfirm Benevolence

  • Kim, Min-Jung
    • The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
    • /
    • v.10 no.1
    • /
    • pp.51-58
    • /
    • 2019
  • Purpose - Manufacturers in uncertain environments need to depend on governance mechanisms to reduce the inherent risk in these environments. However, few studies have examined which governance mechanisms a given manufacturers will develop in uncertain environments for managing the relationships with its vertical partner. This study explores how different governance mechanisms function under uncertain environmental circumstances. We also try to investigate the contextual effect of interfirm benevolence as moderator. Research design, data, and methodology - This research provide the conceptual framework of interfirm benevolence on which this research's propositions are predicted. The theoretical background for environmental uncertainty, governance mechanisms and interfirm benevolence will be discussed. Results - The expected results are as follows. Manufacturers in an uncertain environments rely on different governance mechanisms under conditions of high and low interfirm benevolence. In terms of role of interfirm benevolence, interfirm benevolence provides a better understanding of how governance mechanisms can develop in an uncertain supply markets. Conclusions - This research suggests several theoretical and practical implications between channel partners, particularly, this research offers that interfirm benevolence is a crucial competitive factor under environmental uncertainty situation. In future studies, it is necessary to investigate the effect of each governance mechanism structure on performance in an uncertain environment and various level of interfirm benevolence.

A Review of the Observation-based Framework for the Study of Aerosol-Cloud-Precipitation Interactions (CAPI) (에어로솔-구름-강수 상호작용 (CAPI) 연구를 위한 관측 방법론 고찰)

  • Kim, Byung-Gon
    • Atmosphere
    • /
    • v.22 no.4
    • /
    • pp.437-447
    • /
    • 2012
  • There is still large uncertainty in estimating aerosol indirect effect despite ever-escalating efforts and virtually exponential increase in published studies concerning aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions (CAPI). Probably most uncertainty comes from a wide range of observational scales and different platforms inappropriately used, and inherent complex chains of CAPI. Therefore, well-designed field campaigns and data analysis are required to address how to attribute aerosol signals along with clouds and precipitation to the microphysical effects of aerosols. Basically, aerosol influences cloud properties at the microphysical scales, "process scale", but observations are generally made of bulk properties over a various range of temporal and spatial resolutions, "analysis scale" (McComiskey & Feingold, 2012). In the most studies, measures made within the wide range of scales are erroneously treated as equivalent, probably resulting in a large uncertainty in associated with CAPI. Therefore, issues associated with the disparities of the observational resolution particular to CAPI are briefly discussed. In addition, the dependence of CAPI on the cloud environment such as stability and adiabaticity, and observation characteristics with varying situations of CAPI are also addressed together with observation framework optimally designed for the Korean situation. Properly designed and observation-based CAPI studies will likely continue to accumulate new evidences of CAPI, to further help understand its fundamental mechanism, and finally to develop improved parameterization for cloud-resolving models and large scale models.