• Korea journal of population studies
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• v.32 no.1
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• pp.139-164
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• 2009

The first demographic transition refers to the historical decline in mortality and fertility, as shown from the 18th Century in several European populations, and continuing present in most developing countries. The end point of the first demographic transition(FDT) was supposed to be a stationary and stable population corresponding with replacement fertility and zero population growth. In addition, households in all parts of the world would converge toward the nuclear and conjugal types, composed of married couples and their offspring. The second demographic transition(SDT), on the other hand, sees no such equilibrium as the end-point. Rather, new developments bring sub-replacement fertility, a multitude of living arrangements other than marriage, and the disconnection between marriage and procreation. Populations would face declining sizes if not complemented by new migrants. Over the last decades birth rates have been on the decline in all countries of the world, and it is estimated that already more than half of he world's population has below replacement level fertility. Measured in terms of the Total Fertility Rate (TFR), currently 34 countries have fertility levels of 1.5 or less. Similarly, Korea has been below lowest-low fertility for eight consecutive years since 2001 and below the replacement level for more than twenty years. In explaining the low fertility in Korea, some researchers explain the low fertility as revenge against a male-dominated society and institution, while others focus the impact of the employment instability. These studies share the basic ideas (spread of individualism, delayed marriage and childbearing, high divorce rate etc.) of a second demographic transition in order to explain the low fertility in Korea.

• Proceedings of the Population Association of Korea Conference
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• 2006.12a
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• pp.131-152
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• 2006

This study examines the causal mechanisms of low fertility and regional differentials in Korea. Utilizing the 2005 census and the 2005 vital statistics, and labor statistics at the regional level, major variables were calculated for administrative units of 234 'Gu's, 'Si's and 'Gun's. Gender equity orientation, labor market insecurity and family formation were hypothesized as key factors of recent decline in Korean fertility. This study first presents four maps of gender equity orientation, labor market insecurity, family formation and fertility. Then ANOVA and path analysis were carried out in an effort to generalize the causal mechanisms. Results of analysis reveal that gender equity orientation has played a central role in the second fertility transition in Korea. In metropolitan regions, however, labor market insecurity is found to have a significant influence on the level of family formation and fertility. Family formation also turns out to be an important intermediate variable of fertility.

• Korea journal of population studies
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• v.29 no.2
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• pp.89-113
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• 2006

Over the past four decades reproductive behavior has changed rapidly in much of the developing countries. The average total fertility rate has fallen by half from six or more to near three today. Between 1960 and 2000 the largest fertility decline occurred in Asia and Latin America. The mortality rate has also decreased in most developing countries. The purpose of this study is to review the pattern and characteristic of demographic transition in developing countries. At first, this study focuses on the regional fertility and mortality transition. Africa, the total fertility rate is still high, can be match to the second stage of demographic transition. Similar case is found in Southern West Asia areas. However, the fertility rate has therd stage of demographic transition. The same pattern is found in Latin America. The mortality rate has also decreased in most of developing countries. It is interesting to find that there is a clear difference among developing countries. In terms of crude death rate, Latin American countries show the lowest rate. while African countries remain still high rate. About mortality, African countries show a high level in terms of both crude death rate and infant mortality rate. African countries also show the lowest level of life expectancy in the world. One of the reasons for low level of life expectancy in Africa is the widespread of AIDS in this areas. This study suggests that we should include 'AIDS' in the study of mortality in African countries.

• Korea journal of population studies
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• v.28 no.2
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• pp.183-203
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• 2005

Over the past four decades reproductive behavior has changed rapidly in much of the developing countries. The average total fertility rate has fallen by half from six or more to near three today. Between 1960 and 2000 the largest fertility decline occurred in Asia and Latin America. The mortality rate has decreased in most developing countries. The purpose of this study is to review the pattern of demographic transition in developing countries. At first, this study focuses on the regional fertility transition. In Africa, the total fertility rate has decreased from 6.59 to 4.85 between 1960 and 2000. However, the rate has rapidly fallen from 5.76 to 2.34 in East Asia. The same pattern is found in Latin America. The mortality rate has also decreased in most of developing countries. It is also interesting to find that there is a clear difference among developing countries. In terms of crude death rate, Latin American countries show the lowest rate, while African countries remain still high rate. The study also shows the relationship between socioeconomic indicators and fertility/mortality in developing countries. The result supports the hypothesized relationship between education and fertility. However, the effects of urbanization and income on fertility do not show consistent result. About mortality rate, however, the study shows the significant relationship between urbanization and infant mortality rate, between income and mortality. The study finally emphasizes that we should include 'AIDS' in the study of mortality in African countries.

• Korea journal of population studies
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• v.31 no.1
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• pp.127-146
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• 2008

Over the past four decades reproductive behavior has changed slowly in much of the African countries. The average total fertility rate has fallen from six or more to near five today. Between 1960 and 2000 the largest fertility decline occurred in such Northern African countries as Algeria, Libya, and Morocco. The mortality rate has decreased in most African countries. The purpose of this study is to review the pattern of demographic transition in African countries. At first, this study focuses on the fertility transition. In Africa, the total fertility rate has decreased from 6.59 to 4.85 between 1960 and 2000. The mortality rate has also decreased in most of African countries. It is also interesting to find that there is a clear difference among African countries. In terms of infant mortality rate, Libya shows the lowest rate(17), while Mali and Somalia remain still high rate(142 and 133, respectively). This study tests a path model in which infant mortality rate acts as an intermediate variable between three socioeconomic variables and the fertility rate. The findings of this paper substantiate some of our hypotheses on the interrelationships among socioeconomic variables, infant mortality rate, and fertility rate. The result also shows the indirect effects of socioeconomic variables on fertility rate via infant mortality.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.28 no.4
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• pp.685-701
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• 2015

The low fertility rate and the unprecedented rapid pace of population aging is a significant factor degrading the national competitiveness and the social security system of Korea. The government has implemented various maternity incentives to alleviate the low birth problem; however, the policy seems in effective to solve the problem of low fertility. This study proposes a conditional birth-order specific fertility rate and investigates the policy effects of fertility transition in Korea to provide a basis for more effective policy development. The use of a conditional birth-order specific fertility rate allows for an effective calculation of the change and the effect in total fertility rate than a birth-order specific fertility rate. We compare the effects of the total fertility rate according to various scenarios that enables us to calculate how the total fertility rate can achieve the current multi-child childbirth support policy of the government and estimate how the total fertility rate can be achieved when focusing on the first or second childbirth support policy. We also summarize the research results on policy development for a practical increase in the childbirth that considers the rapid decrease in women of childbearing age (15-49 years) due to continued low fertility and present the number of childbirths in accordance with the total fertility rate.

• Proceedings of the Population Association of Korea Conference
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• 2006.12a
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• pp.59-87
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• 2006

This paper explores the effects of the 1997 economic crisis on the pattern of socioeconomic differentials in fertility. Based on analysis of data from the 2003 Korea National Fertility Survey, this study focuses on recent changes in the level of fertility according to socioeconomic status of the couple including educational level, occupation, working status, income, etc. Results reveal that the level of fertility of those with the highest education, most prestigious occupation, and employer status are higher than those of the next group in the socioeconomic hierarchy. These findings imply that the straight line inverse pattern of socioeconomic differentials in CEB yielded to a reversed J-shaped curve. However, recent differentials of fertility after the economic crisis were found to contrast with the pattern above. Decrease in fertility has been most drastic among those with a high level of fertility, and relatively slow for those with a low level of fertility. The level of recent fertility turns out to be highest among those with upper-middle socioeconomic status, followed by those with the highest socioeconomic status and those with the lowest status. Policy implications and some comments on current population policies of the Korean government are also presented in this paper.

• The Southeast Asian review
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• v.20 no.3
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• pp.147-182
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• 2010

The purpose of this study is to examine the population changes in the nine Southeast Asian countries, including Cambodia, Lao People's Democratic Republic, Philippine, Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, Singapore, Vietnam, and Thailand. According to the demographic transition theory which described the transition from high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates, the demographic changes in less developed countries, including the Southeast Asian countries, follow the general pattern of the population changes that the Western countries had experienced. However, this theory does not consider the fact that the demographic behaviors such as fertility and mortality tend to be ethnocentric (or particular). Therefore, I examine in this paper both the generality and particularity of the population changes in the Southeast Asia . The analytic results are consistent with my assumptions. Every country in the Southeast Asia will soon reach the third phrase of the demographic transition and meet population ageing process. However, the timings arriving at the third phrase can differ. Singapore which is the most developed country had firstly passed through the demographic transition and the highest level of population ageing. Cambodia and Lao People's Democratic Republic, the least developed countries, will lastly arrive at the third phrase and the ageing society. In addition, among the three countries which had experienced war or civil war, only Cambodia had experienced babyboom.

• Korea journal of population studies
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• v.8 no.2
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• pp.79-92
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• 1985

Fertility has been declined since 1966 (see Table 1). This fertility reduction was duely caused by age at first marriage, induced abortion and contraceptive practice which has been largely increased in recent years. Although tbe proximate determinant such as induced abortion, age at marriage and breastfeeding can and do have an effect on fertility, the principal cause of the reduction in fertility in Korea during the fertility transition can be supported by correlation between level of fertility and contraceptive prevalence (See Fig. 4). Taking a regression equation between fertility (TER. Y) and prevalence level (X), the total fertility rate in 1984 was estimated as 1.9 and 2.1 based on lenear and expotential function shown as follow; $Y_1$=5.709-0.0549 X and $Y_2$_______80________ 1+e2.433+0.017X ($R^2$=O. 93) ($R^2$=0. 96) Where $Y_1$ and $Y_2$ denote total fertility rates obtained through two equations respectivelly. The peak of contraceptive prevalence was assumdd as 80 percent which is almost upper limit in human society. On the other hand, an observed value of 1984 fertility level obtained from five month period shows 2.1 which is coincident with logistic fitting after the adjustment of response error assumed around 10 to 20 percent, At any rate, fertility of Korean women will have been reached replacement level (2.1) by 1985.Thus policy for family planning program must be reviewed toward the direction of integrated approach particularly with MCH program inasmuch as fertility in Korea has already shown population replacement level that require more good quality of service in family planning and their There must be an advanced level of fertility in Korea because wide use of contraception and induced life abortion and age at marriage will effect modern fertility which shows up and down trend between 2.1 and 1.5 in general.

• Korea journal of population studies
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• v.5 no.1
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• pp.79-98
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• 1982