• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제15권1호
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• pp.239-250
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• 2004

We shall propose maximum likelihood, Bayesian and generalized maximum likelihood estimation for the reliability of the two-unit hot standby system with Rayleigh lifetime distribution that switch is perfect. Each estimation will be compared numerically in terms of various mission times, parameter values and asymptotic relative efficiency through Monte Carlo simulation.

• 한국산학기술학회논문지
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• 제11권4호
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• pp.1307-1317
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• 2010

응용 소프트웨어 시스템의 신뢰성을 평가하기 위한 모형은 매우 다양하게 개발되어 있다. 그러나 이렇게 개발된 대부분의 모형에서 보면, 모수의 추정방법이 너무 복잡하다. 그러므로 소프트웨어를 생산하는 산업현장에서 적용하기에는 불편한 점이 너무 많다. 그래서 본 연구에서는 간편하게 현장에서 적용할 수 있는 신뢰성 평가모형을 개발한다. 그리고 시스템을 이용하여 신뢰성을 평가하여 기존의 신뢰성 평가모형과 차이가 없음을 증명하고자 한다. 이렇게 효과가 입증되면, 현장에서 소프트웨어 시스템을 개발하고 있는 개발자들이 편리하게 신뢰성을 평가해 볼 수 있도록 하게 될 것이다. 따라서 소프트웨어 시스템에 대한 신뢰도를 높이고, 처리된 정보에 대한 신뢰도를 향상시키는데 크게 기여할 수 있을 것으로 본다.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제26권4호
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• pp.7-13
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• 2011

A study on reliability estimation of sequential-ordered multiple failure modes, which are sequentially ordered between failure modes in a considering system, was performed. Especially, an approach to estimate the probabilities of failure modes has been proposed under an assumption that failure modes are mutually exclusive and sequentially ordered by only a critical variable. A feasibility of the proposed approach were studied by a practical example, which is a reliability estimation of passive safety systems for a probabilistic safety assessment(PSA) of a very high temperature reactor(VHTR) that is under development as a future nuclear system with enhanced safety features. It is difficult to define a robust failure state of this nuclear system because of its enhanced radiation release characteristics, so the new approach is a useful concept to estimate not only its safety but also a PSA. A feasibility study applied two failure modes(e.g., small and large release of radioactive materials) with considering the integrated behavior of this nuclear system. It is expected that the multiple release states for a practical estimation can be easily extended to the aforementioned example. It was found out that the proposed approach was a useful technique to cover the unfavorable features of this nuclear system as to performing a VHTR PSA.

• 산업경영시스템학회지
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• 제47권3호
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• pp.31-38
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• 2024

This paper chronicles the evolution of load-sharing parameter estimation methodologies, with a particular focus on the significant contributions made by Kim and Kvam (2004) and Park (2012). Kim and Kvam's pioneering work underscored the inherent challenges in deriving closed-form solutions for load-share parameters, which necessitated the use of sophisticated numerical optimization techniques. Park's research, on the other hand, provided groundbreaking closed-form solutions and extended the theoretical framework to accommodate more general distributions of component lifetimes. This was achieved by incorporating EM-type methods for maximum likelihood estimation, which represented a significant advancement in the field. Unlike previous efforts, this paper zeroes in on the specific characteristics and advantages of closed-form solutions for load-share parameters within reliability systems. Much like the basic Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) model enhances the understanding of real-life inventory systems dynamics, our analysis aims to thoroughly explore the conditions under which these closed-form solutions are valid. We investigate their stability, robustness, and applicability to various types of systems. Through this comprehensive study, we aspire to provide a deep understanding of the practical implications and potential benefits of these solutions. Building on previous advancements, our research further examines the robustness of these solutions in diverse reliability contexts, aiming to shed light on their practical relevance and utility in real-world applications.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• 제75권6호
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• pp.771-784
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• 2020

Reliability analysis techniques combining with various surrogate models have attracted increasing attention because of their accuracy and great efficiency. However, they primarily focus on the structures with continuous response, while very rare researches on the reliability analysis for structures with discontinuous response are carried out. Furthermore, existing adaptive reliability analysis methods based on importance sampling (IS) still have some intractable defects when dealing with small failure probability, and there is no related research on reliability analysis for structures involving discontinuous response and small failure probability. Therefore, this paper proposes a novel reliability analysis method called AGPC-IS for such structures, which combines adaptive Gaussian process classification (GPC) and adaptive-kernel-density-estimation-based IS. In AGPC-IS, an efficient adaptive strategy for design of experiments (DoE), taking into consideration the classification uncertainty, the sampling uniformity and the regional classification accuracy improvement, is developed with the purpose of improving the accuracy of Gaussian process classifier. The adaptive kernel density estimation is introduced for constructing the quasi-optimal density function of IS. In addition, a novel and more precise stopping criterion is also developed from the perspective of the stability of failure probability estimation. The efficiency, superiority and practicability of AGPC-IS are verified by three examples.

• 한국정밀공학회지
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• 제20권11호
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• pp.127-133
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• 2003

Pin-on-disk and hardness tests using mechanical components of M-20J aircraft braking system were performed to identify the friction and wear characteristics. The intention of this work was also to analyze a 5-year term maintenance record of an M-20J aircraft. used for flight training at Hankook Aviation University, and to determine the reliability of the brake system of an M-20J aircraft. The mean wear coefficients of the lining sliding against the brake disk were compared between the test and reliability estimation to obtain a predictive wear model.

• 한국추진공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국추진공학회 2011년도 제37회 추계학술대회논문집
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• pp.349-351
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• 2011

미사일용 추진기관의 신뢰성 평가는 요구되는 기술의 고도화와 사용가능한 개발 예산의 절감 측면에서 그 중요성이 더욱 높아되어지고 있다. 국내추진기관의 신뢰성은 그동안의 설계능력을 기반으로 요구수준을 만족시켜 왔으나 다품종 소량생산이 예상되는 미래 유도무기체계에 대비한 추진기관의 신뢰성 평가 기법은 현재 세계적으로 정립된 기술을 토대로 국내 독자화 할 필요가 있다. 이를 위하여 신뢰성 평가를 위한 제반 현황과 발전방향을 검토한 후에 국내에서의 적용 방안을 검토하였다.

• ETRI Journal
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• 제43권4호
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• pp.728-745
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• 2021

Carbon nanotube field-effect transistors (CNTFETs) have been widely studied as a promising technology to be included in post-complementary metal-oxide-semiconductor integrated circuits. Despite significant advantages in terms of delay and power dissipation, the fabrication process for CNTFETs is plagued by fault occurrences. Therefore, developing a fast and accurate method for estimating the reliability of CNTFET-based digital circuits was the main goal of this study. In the proposed method, effects related to faults that occur in a gate's transistors are first represented as a probability transfer matrix. Next, the target circuit's graph is traversed in topological order and the reliabilities of the circuit's gates are computed. The accuracy of this method (less than 3% reliability estimation error) was verified through various simulations on the ISCAS 85 benchmark circuits. The proposed method outperforms previous methods in terms of both accuracy and computational complexity.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제22권5호
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• pp.977-989
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• 2011

The half logistic distribution has been used intensively in reliability and survival analysis especially when the data is censored. In this paper, we provide Bayesian estimation of the shape parameter and reliability function in the generalized half logistic distribution based on progressively Type-II censored data under various loss functions. We here consider conjugate prior and noninformative prior and corresponding posterior distributions are obtained. As an illustration, we examine the validity of our estimation using real data and simulated data.

• KEPCO Journal on Electric Power and Energy
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• 제1권1호
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• pp.61-65
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• 2015

For effective distribution planning and operation, we need a reliable estimation of operation capacity. But it is difficult to ensure reliability due to the low accuracy of section load data, which is used as a basis in estimating the operation capacity. This paper discusses how to improve the accuracy of section load data by analyzing the existing method of estimating the section load, using statistical techniques to adjust the acquired data, and using the section load estimation algorithm to estimate the section load based on the adjusted data.