• 제목/요약/키워드: estimation errors

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식생냉각효과 적용을 통한 BioCAS의 폭염기간 일 최고기온 추정 개선 - 서울 및 수도권지역을 중심으로 - (Improvement of Vegetation Cooling Effects in BioCAS for Better Estimation of Daily Maximum Temperature during Heat Waves - In Case of the Seoul Metropolitan Area -)

  • 이한경;이채연;김규랑;조창범
    • 대기
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    • 제29권2호
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    • pp.131-147
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    • 2019
  • On the urban scale, Micro-climate analysis models for urban scale have been developed to investigate the atmospheric characteristics in urban surface in detail and to predict the micro-climate change due to the changes in urban structure. BioCAS (Biometeorological Climate Impact Assessment System) is a system that combines such analysis models and has been implemented internally in the Korea Meteorological Administration. One of role in this system is the analysis of the health impact by heat waves in urban area. In this study, the vegetation cooling models A and B were developed and linked with BioCAS and evaluated by the temperature drop at the vegetation areas during ten selected heat-wave days. Smaller prediction errors were found as a result of applying the vegetation cooling models to the heat-wave days. In addition, it was found that the effects of the vegetation cooling models produced different results according to the distribution of vegetation area in land cover near each observation site - the improvement of the model performance on temperature analysis was different according to land use at each location. The model A was better fitted where the surrounding vegetation ratio was 50% or more, whereas the model B was better where the vegetation ratio was less than 50% (higher building and impervious areas). Through this study, it should be possible to select an appropriate vegetation cooling model according to its fraction coverage so that the temperature analysis around built-up areas would be improved.

해저면 반사신호의 선 배열 소나 방위 오차 해석 (Estimation of bearing error of line array sonar system caused by bottom bounced path)

  • 오래근;구본성;김선효;송택렬;최지웅;손수욱;김원기;배호석
    • 한국음향학회지
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    • 제37권6호
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    • pp.412-421
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    • 2018
  • 선 배열 소나는 배열 이득으로 인해 단일 소나에 비해 상대적으로 음압이 낮은 표적 신호일 경우에도 방위 추정이 가능한 장점이 있다. 하지만 선 배열 소나에서는 표적의 방향을 나타내는 표적 방위각과 음파의 다중경로에서 발생되는 수직각의 영향으로 방위 오차가 발생하며 이로 인해 수신 신호로부터 표적 방위를 추정하는데 어려움이 존재한다. 수중의 음파 전달 환경에 의해 발생하는 다중경로는 각 경로별로 상이한 수직각을 가지므로 이러한 특성이 선배열 소나의 방위 추정에 미치는 영향에 대해 고려할 필요가 있다. 본 논문에서는 선 배열 소나에서 다중경로의 영향으로 인해 발생하게 되는 방위 오차를 확인하며 해저면 반사 경로에서 수직각에 의한 오차를 모의하여 환경에 따른 방위 오차의 차이를 분석한다. 또한 추정된 방위각에서 거리에 따라 방위 오차를 고려한 예상 표적 방위선을 도출한다.

소수 곱셈 단원의 교과서 개선 방향 탐색 (An Exploration of the Improvement Direction for Decimal Fractional Multiplication Unit in Textbooks)

  • 김수경;김진숙;권성룡
    • 한국초등수학교육학회지
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    • 제22권4호
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    • pp.475-496
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    • 2018
  • 소수의 곱셈은 계산방법에 있어 자연수 곱셈과의 유사성 때문에 학생들이 쉽게 이해할 것이라고 기대하지만 학생들은 소수의 곱셈에서 많은 오류를 보인다. 이는 개념적인 이해보다 기능적인 숙달에 치중한 결과라고 할 수 있다. 본 연구는 소수의 곱셈 단원을 효과적으로 구성하기 위한 기초연구로서 제7차 교육과정부터 2015 개정 교육과정까지 소수의 곱셈 단원의 성취기준, 교수학습 및 평가 상의 유의점, 지도내용 및 방법을 분석하였고, 2009 개정 교육과정까지 교육과정별 해당 교과서의 차시 구성 및 교과서별 활동을 분석하였다. 또한 소수의 곱셈과 관련된 개론서 및 논문을 분석하여 소수의 곱셈에 대한 학생들의 이해 실태 및 소수의 곱셈을 지도하기 위한 지도 방안을 살펴보고 공통적으로 제시된 방안을 요목화하였다. 분석 결과, 다음의 세 가지 시사점을 얻을 수 있었다. 첫째, 의미 있는 어림 지도가 필요하다. 둘째, 소수 곱셈의 의미에 적합한 시각적 모델을 제시해 줄 필요가 있다. 셋째, 소수의 곱셈 알고리즘을 형식화하는 과정을 다양화할 필요가 있다.

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기계학습을 이용한 유동가속부식 모델링: 랜덤 포레스트와 비선형 회귀분석과의 비교 (Modeling of Flow-Accelerated Corrosion using Machine Learning: Comparison between Random Forest and Non-linear Regression)

  • 이경근;이은희;김성우;김경모;김동진
    • Corrosion Science and Technology
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    • 제18권2호
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    • pp.61-71
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    • 2019
  • Flow-Accelerated Corrosion (FAC) is a phenomenon in which a protective coating on a metal surface is dissolved by a flow of fluid in a metal pipe, leading to continuous wall-thinning. Recently, many countries have developed computer codes to manage FAC in power plants, and the FAC prediction model in these computer codes plays an important role in predictive performance. Herein, the FAC prediction model was developed by applying a machine learning method and the conventional nonlinear regression method. The random forest, a widely used machine learning technique in predictive modeling led to easy calculation of FAC tendency for five input variables: flow rate, temperature, pH, Cr content, and dissolved oxygen concentration. However, the model showed significant errors in some input conditions, and it was difficult to obtain proper regression results without using additional data points. In contrast, nonlinear regression analysis predicted robust estimation even with relatively insufficient data by assuming an empirical equation and the model showed better predictive power when the interaction between DO and pH was considered. The comparative analysis of this study is believed to provide important insights for developing a more sophisticated FAC prediction model.

오토인코더를 이용한 요인 강화 HAR 모형 (Autoencoder factor augmented heterogeneous autoregressive model)

  • 박민수;백창룡
    • 응용통계연구
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    • 제35권1호
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    • pp.49-62
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    • 2022
  • 실현 변동성은 강한 종속성을 가짐이 잘 알려져 있으며, 글로벌 금융 시장과 유기적으로 연관이 되어 있을 뿐만 아니라 환율, 유가, 이자율 등의 거시적인 지표와도 밀접한 관계가 있다. 본 논문은 이러한 실현 변동성의 효과적인 예측을 위해서 오토인코더를 이용한 FAHAR (autoencoder factor-augmented heterogeneous autoregressive, AE-FAHAR) 모형을 제안한다. AE-FAHAR 모형은 강한 종속성을 HAR 구조로 반영하고, 외부 효과에 대한 영향을 오토인코더를 사용하여 몇 개의 요인으로 추출하여 이를 반영한다. 오토인코더는 비선형 방법으로 요인을 추정하기에 많은 계산 시간이 필요하지만 복잡하고 비정상성을 가질 수 있는 고차원 시계열 자료의 요약에 더 적합하다. 이는 곧 실증 자료 분석을 통해 AE-FAHAR 모형이 예측 오차를 줄임을 확인할 수 있었다. 또한 계산 시간을 줄이고 추정 오차를 줄이기 위해 오토인코더에 사전학습 및 앙상블을 적용하는 등의 방법에 대해서도 논의하였다.

ESTIMATION OF NITROGEN-TO-IRON ABUNDANCE RATIOS FROM LOW-RESOLUTION SPECTRA

  • Kim, Changmin;Lee, Young Sun;Beers, Timothy C.;Masseron, Thomas
    • 천문학회지
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    • 제55권2호
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    • pp.23-36
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    • 2022
  • We present a method to determine nitrogen abundance ratios with respect to iron ([N/Fe]) from molecular CN-band features observed in low-resolution (R ~ 2000) stellar spectra obtained by the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) and the Large Sky Area Multi-Object Fiber Spectroscopic Telescope (LAMOST). Various tests are carried out to check the systematic and random errors of our technique, and the impact of signal-to-noise (S/N) ratios of stellar spectra on the determined [N/Fe]. We find that the uncertainty of our derived [N/Fe] is less than 0.3 dex for S/N ratios larger than 10 in the ranges Teff = [4000, 6000] K, log g = [0.0, 3.5], [Fe/H] = [-3.0, 0.0], [C/Fe] = [-1.0, +4.5], and [N/Fe] = [-1.0, +4.5], the parameter space that we are interested in to identify N-enhanced stars in the Galactic halo. A star-by-star comparison with a sample of stars with [N/Fe] estimates available from the Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment (APOGEE) also suggests a similar level of uncertainty in our measured [N/Fe], after removing its systematic error. Based on these results, we conclude that our method is able to reproduce [N/Fe] from low-resolution spectroscopic data, with an uncertainty sufficiently small to discover N-rich stars that presumably originated from disrupted Galactic globular clusters.

수중 음파 굴절효과를 고려한 전방주시소나 기뢰 위치 추정기법 연구 (A Study on Mine Localization of Forward Looking Sonar Considering the Effect of Underwater Sound Refraction)

  • 설호석;오래근;양원준;윤영글;최지웅;한상규;권범수
    • 한국군사과학기술학회지
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    • 제25권3호
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    • pp.231-238
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    • 2022
  • Mine detection has been mainly studied with images of the forward-looking sonar. Forward-looking sonar assumes the propagation path of the sound wave as a straight path, creating the surrounding images. This might lead to errors in the detection by ignoring the refraction of the sound wave. In this study, we propose a mine localization method that can robustly identify the location of mines in an underwater environment by considering the refraction of sound waves. We propose a method of estimating the elevation angle of arrival of the target echo signal in a single receiver, and estimate the mine location by applying the estimated elevation angle of arrival to ray tracing. As a result of simulation, the method proposed in this paper was more effective in estimating the mine localization than the existing method that assumed the propagation path as a straight line.

코로나-19 팬데믹 상황에서 외식기업의 경영성과와 프랜차이즈의 역할 (The Role of Franchising on the Restaurant Firms' Performance during COVID-19)

  • 선경아;김승현
    • 한국프랜차이즈경영연구
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    • 제13권4호
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    • pp.39-48
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    • 2022
  • Purpose: COVID-19 has negatively influenced the financial performance of restaurant firms. Previous literature suggests that the franchising strategy effectively helps restaurant firms recover from difficult business conditions through various methods for expanding business size and enhancing business efficiency. According to risk-sharing theory, restaurant franchisors may minimize operational risks by sharing the risks with their franchisees. For instance, restaurant franchisors could generate more stable cash flow using franchise fees from their franchisees. However, research on the effect of franchise's risk reduction factor on business performance during pandemic is scarce. Thus, this study aims to examine the positive moderating effect of franchising between COVID-19 and restaurants' financial performance. Research design, data, and methodology: Panel data including financial information and franchising status of restaurant firms were collected for analysis. In order to control for unobserved firm-specific factors, generalized least squared estimation in fixed effects model was conducted. Huber-White robust standard errors were used to deal with heteroscedasticity issues. Results: It was found that COVID-19 pandemic has a negative effect on the restaurants' financial performance such as ROA (return on assets), ROE (return on equity), and PM (profit margins), which confirms the findings from existing literature. More importantly, results show that the degree of franchising has a positive moderating effect on the relationship between COVID-19 and financial performance of restaurant firms. This suggests that more active engagement in franchising may decrease negative impacts of COVID-19 on the restaurants' financial performance. Conclusions: The study supports existing literature related to risk-sharing theory, by confirming that pandemics, such as COVID-19, negatively affect financial performance of the restaurants. Furthermore, it was found that franchising strategy can help lessen negative impacts of pandemics on the firm performance. These findings can contribute to the franchise and restaurant management literature by suggesting the role of franchising in reducing business risks, thereby positively affecting financial performance. Moreover, this study offers business managers of franchisors and franchisees insights for utilizing franchising in restaurant risk management. Policymakers may also gain information on aiding restaurant firms during global crisis, such as COVID-19.

Aspects of size effect on discrete element modeling of normal strength concrete

  • Gyurko, Zoltan;Nemes, Rita
    • Computers and Concrete
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    • 제28권5호
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    • pp.521-532
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    • 2021
  • Present paper focuses on the modeling of size effect on the compressive strength of normal concrete with the application of Discrete Element Method (DEM). Test specimens with different size and shape were cast and uniaxial compressive strength test was performed on each sample. Five different concrete mixes were used, all belonging to a different normal strength concrete class (C20/25, C30/37, C35/45, C45/55, and C50/60). The numerical simulations were carried out by using the PFC 5 software, which applies rigid spheres and contacts between them to model the material. DEM modeling of size effect could be advantageous because the development of micro-cracks in the material can be observed and the failure mode can be visualized. The series of experiments were repeated with the model after calibration. The relationship of the parallel bond strength of the contacts and the laboratory compressive strength test was analyzed by aiming to determine a relation between the compressive strength and the bond strength of different sized models. An equation was derived based on Bazant's size effect law to estimate the parallel bond strength of differently sized specimens. The parameters of the equation were optimized based on measurement data using nonlinear least-squares method with SSE (sum of squared errors) objective function. The laboratory test results showed a good agreement with the literature data (compressive strength is decreasing with the increase of the size of the specimen regardless of the shape). The derived estimation models showed strong correlation with the measurement data. The results indicated that the size effect is stronger on concretes with lower strength class due to the higher level of inhomogeneity of the material. It was observed that size effect is more significant on cube specimens than on cylinder samples, which can be caused by the side ratios of the specimens and the size of the purely compressed zone. A limit value for the minimum size of DE model for cubes and cylinder was determined, above which the size effect on compressive strength can be neglected within the investigated size range. The relationship of model size (particle number) and computational time was analyzed and a method to decrease the computational time (number of iterations) of material genesis is proposed.

상한론(傷寒論)에서 대조(大棗)의 1 일 복용량 (Daily Dose of Zizyphi Fructus in Treatise on Cold Damage)

  • 김인락
    • 대한본초학회지
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    • 제28권1호
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    • pp.51-58
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    • 2013
  • Objectives : As Daily Dose of Zizyphi Fructus was designated by the numbers in Treatise on Cold Damage Disease, estimation of Daily Dose was all different among researchers. The purpose of this study was to estimate exact Daily Dose of Zizyphi Fructus. Methods : We fixed the errors in various copy of Treatise on Cold Damage Disease and considered the meaning of the Bee Zizyphi Fructus(肥大棗) and general rules of Daily Dose in Treatise on Cold Damage Disease. So we reduced Daily Dose of Zizyphi Fructus, and compared this with the standard of Zizyphy Fructus in Pharmacopoeia of several Nation and Korean Forest Service. Results : Daily Dose of Zizyphi Fructus was generally 12 pieces; less was for prescriptions which scaled down the amount of ingredients prescribed in the originals; 15, 25, and 30 pieces were used when more was required. The medicinal part was the pulp of fructus, and the dosage of 12 pieces was respectively equivalent to 3 Ryang(兩), and 19.5 g. As defined in the Korean Pharmacopoeia Ninth Edition and standards of forest products by Korea Forest Service, Zizyphi Fructus was medium-sized, and weighs about 1.625 g if properly dehydrated. Conclusions : In short, the proper Daily Dose of Zizyphi Fructus in Treatise on Cold damage Disease was 12 pieces of Zizyphi Fructus and 19.5 g of its pulp, weighing three Ryang(兩). The pulp was estimated to be 1.625 g; it was medium-sized according to the present standard.