• Title/Summary/Keyword: estimate the future value

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Estimation of Productivity Losses due to Smoking (흡연으로 인한 생산성 손질 추정)

  • 김태현;문옥륜;김병익
    • Health Policy and Management
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    • v.10 no.3
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    • pp.169-187
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    • 2000
  • Cigarette smoking has been identified as the most important source of preventable morbidity and premature mortality (WHO, 1995), The prevalence of smoking among men is very high in Korea. This study estimated productivity losses due to smoking in Korea, 1997. The derivation of cost estimates for mortality, disability, hospitalization and use of physician services related to cigarette smoking is bas 어 on the calculation of attributable fractions suggested by MacMahon and Cole and Smoking-Attributable Mortality, Morbidity, and Economic Cost(SAMMEC) software. To estimate the number of deaths from neoplastic, cardiovascular, respiratory diseases associated with cigarette smoking, estimates for adults(aged 20 years and over) were based on 1997 mortality data, 1995 data on smoking prevalence from Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs. Smoking-attributable indirect morbidity cost data were obtained from the National Federation of Medical Insurance. As the result of cost estimation, these productivity losses were 336-430 billion won. During 1997, 8,620-10,804 deaths were attributed to smoking. Cigarette smoking resulted in 133,991-169,422 Years of Potential Life Lost (YPLL) to life expectancy. For smoking -attributable indirect mortality costs, the present value of future earnings(PVFE) for the age at death are 299-384 billion won. Smoking-attributable indirect morbidity costs, the costs of lost productivity for persons who are disabled by smoking-related chronic diseases are 37-46 billion won. In this study the productivity losses due to smoking were restricted to the health effects of smoking. It is possible that these costs were underestimated with the limitation of the data. Smoking is the leading preventable cause of illness and death. The results of this study can be used as elementary data for antismoking policy.

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Estimation of low impact development duration of estuaries at urban area (도시 유역에 위치한 하구를 구성하는 하천의 저영향 개발 기간 산정)

  • Jeong, Anchul;Lim, Jeongcheol;Kim, Songhyun;Baek, Chungyeol
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.290-297
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    • 2019
  • The estuary is a transition zone where fresh water and salt water meet because the stream is connected to the open sea area. So estuaries have very high biodiversity and form a unique ecosystem. However, before the recognition of the ecological value of the estuaries, various damage and disturbances have been occurred so countermeasures are needed. The river master plan is acting as a disturbance factor. However, the river master plan has the public object such as water disaster defense, river function improvement, and national water resources management. Therefore, it is necessary to study the ways in which the opposite relationship of development and ecosystem protection coexist. In this study, the concept of environmental windows were used to estimate the low impact development duration. We expected that proposed method for low impact development duration estimation can be used as a basis and basic data to protected the ecosystem from development project and disturbance in the future.

Depressive Symptoms on the Geriatric Depression Scale and Suicide Deaths in Older Middle-aged Men: A Prospective Cohort Study

  • Yi, Sang-Wook
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.49 no.3
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    • pp.176-182
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    • 2016
  • Objectives: Prospective evaluations of the associations between depressive symptoms and suicide deaths have been mainly performed in high-risk populations, such as individuals with psychiatric disorders or histories of self-harm. The purpose of this study was to prospectively examine whether more severe depressive symptoms assessed using the Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS) were associated with a greater risk of death from suicide in a general-risk population. Methods: A total of 113 478 men from the Korean Veterans Health Study (mean age, 58.9 years) who participated in a postal survey in 2004 were followed up for suicide mortality until 2010. Results: Over 6.4 years of follow-up, 400 men died by suicide (56.7 deaths per 100 000 person-years). More severe depressive symptoms were associated with greater risk of suicide death (p for trend <0.001). The unadjusted hazard ratios (HRs) in comparison to the absence of depression were 2.18 for mild depression, 2.13 for moderate depression, 3.33 for severe depression, and 3.67 for extreme depression. After adjusting for potential confounders, men with a potential depressive disorder had an approximate 90% higher mortality from suicide (adjusted HR, 1.92; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.38 to 2.68; p<0.001) than men without depression. Each five-point increase in the GDS score was associated with a higher risk of death by suicide (adjusted HR, 1.22; p<0.001). The value of the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve of GDS scores for suicide deaths was 0.61 (95% CI, 0.58 to 0.64). Conclusions: Depressive symptoms assessed using the GDS were found to be a strong independent predictor of future suicide. However, the estimate of relative risk was weaker than would be expected based on retrospective psychological autopsy studies.

A Nonstationary Frequency Analysis of Extreme Wind Speed in Jeju using Bayesian Approach (베이지안 기법을 이용한 제주지역 극치풍속의 비정상성 빈도해석)

  • Kim, Kyoungmin;Kwon, Hyun-Han;Kwon, Soon-Duck
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.39 no.6
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    • pp.667-673
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    • 2019
  • Global warming may accelerate climate change and may increase disaster caused by strong winds. This research studied a method for a nonstationary frequency analysis considering the linear trend over time. The Bayesian method was used to estimate the posterior distribution of the parameters for the extreme value distribution of the annual maximum wind speed at Jeju Airport. The nonstationary frequency analysis was performed based on the Monte Carlo Markov Chain simulation and the Gibbs sampling. The estimated wind speeds by nonstationary frequency analysis was larger than those by stationary analysis. The conventional frequency analysis procedure assuming stationarity is likely to underestimate the future design wind speed in the region where statistically significant trend exists.

A Study on the Simplification of Quantity Calculation of Reinforcing Bar (철근 수량산출 간소화 방안)

  • Jo, Yeong-Ho;Yun, Seok-Heon
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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    • v.19 no.6
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    • pp.521-527
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    • 2019
  • Quantity takeoff and cost estimates in Korea are carried out in practice without any clear standards or standards. Especially, quantity takeoff of Reinforcing bar and BoQ documentation process is very complex using 2D drawings. In this study, 10 case sites were analyzed for the status of inefficient quantity takeoff and how the statement was prepared. In order to solve this problem, this study presented a method for calculating the quantity of rebars through the ratio of concrete volume for schools, offices, and apartment buildings, and analyzed the accuracy of results. In the future, it is expected that the error range can be reduced by defining the factors affecting the results and calculating the correction value for them.

Case Study of Correlation between the SPT-N Value and PMT Results Performed on Weathered Granite Zone in Korea (국내 화강 풍화대 지반의 표준관입시험 N 값과 프레셔미터시험 결과의 상관관계에 대한 사례 분석)

  • Lee, Seung-Hwan;Baek, Sung-Ha;Song, Young-Woo;Chung, Choong-Ki
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.35 no.12
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    • pp.15-24
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    • 2019
  • Weathered granite zone exists in most regions of Korea and it is often used as a bearing stratum of geotechnical structures. So it is very important to estimate the characteristics of weathered granite zone. SPT (Standard penetration test) is usually performed to investigate the characteristics of the weathered zone because undisturbed samples suitable for laboratory testing are hardly retrieved. PMT (Pressuremeter test) can reliably evaluate the in situ stress-strain behavior, but it is rarely conducted because of their high cost and time-consuming procedure. In this study, the correlation between the SPT-N values and the PMT results, obtained from the weathered granite zone, was analyzed. Empirical equations for pressuremeter modulus (Em) and limit pressure (PL) were suggested and compared with the previous research.

Study on the Spectrum Sharing based on Analysis of Channel Interference between LTE/LTE-Advanced Systems (LTE/LTE-Advanced 시스템간 채널 간섭분석을 통한 주파수 공유 연구)

  • Kang, Young-Heung
    • Journal of Advanced Navigation Technology
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.219-226
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    • 2012
  • Since OFDM(Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing) technology is applied into LTE(Long Term Evolution)/LTE-Advanced system, it is important to estimate the spectrum sharing and to analyze interference in LTE system based on the characteristics of frequency assignment. Therefore, in this paper, a study on the adjacent channel interference between two operators/systems to provide LTE services. For co-existence of LTE systems, the relative capacity loss and the relative throughput loss in uplink and downlink have been simulated to evaluated ACIR(Adjacent Channel Interference Ratio) values with 5% loss rate. Some parameters such as the location of user, aggressor bandwidth, and the separation offset affect the required ACIR value for spectrum sharing, and these results and interference analysis schemes in this article can provide reliable reference for LTE RF standardization and efficient frequency utilization in future.

A Case Study on R&D Process Innovation Using PI6sigma Methodology (PI6sigma를 이용한 R&D 프로세스 혁신 사례 연구)

  • Kim, Young-Jin;Jeong, Woo-Cheol;Choi, Young-Keun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.33 no.1
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    • pp.17-23
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    • 2010
  • The corporate R&D(Research and Development) has a primary role of new product development and its potential is the most crucial factor to estimate corporate future value. However, its systemic inadequacies and inefficiencies, the shorten product life-cycle to satisfy customer needs, the global operations by outsourcing strategy, and the reduction of product cost, are starting to expose to R&D business processes. The three-phased execution strategy for R&D innovation is introduced to establish master plan for new R&D model. From information technology point of view, PLM(Product Life-cycle Management) is one of the business total solutions in product development area. It is not a system, but the strategic business approach that collaboratively manage the product from beginning stage to end of life in all business areas PLM functions and capabilities are usually used as references to re-design new R&D process. BPA(Business Process Assessment) and 5DP(Design Parameters) in PI6sigma developed by Samsung SDS Consulting division are introduced to establish R&D master plan and re-design process respectively. This research provides a case study for R&D process innovation. How process assessment and PMM(Process Maturity Model) can be applied in business processes, and also it explains process re-design by 5DP method.

Estimation of Optimal Fare for Cloud Transportation System (클라우드교통시스템의 최적 요금 산정)

  • Ryu, Seong Beom;Bae, Sang Hoon
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.33 no.5
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    • pp.1969-1980
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    • 2013
  • The Traffic congestion is caused by the increasing traffic demand. Thus, economic losses have been increasing every year. To solve these problems, car sharing and rental car systems that are equipped with IT technologies emerge. Car sharing has many advantages-the alleviation of the traffic congestion, the saving of maintenance cost for cars, the reduction of car possessiveness, the solution for the hassle of car ownership, for business and personal duty, and the improvement of connectivity between public transportations-. The goal of the car sharing is to achieve low-carbon and eco-friendly transportation. In this study, we review papers related to the car sharing system and the cost system of traffic systems. We estimate the optimal cost of the cloud traffic system that is one of the car sharing services. We suggest a methodology to estimate operational cost and use cost through the analysis of cost system between similar traffic means. The range of the maximum and minimum cost was determined through the comparison and analysis of similar traffic means. Expected demand and the cost that people are willing to pay were estimated through optimized value pricing. The minimum cost per hour that was compared to the cost of rental car was estimated at 5,333 won and the maximum cost per hour that was compared to taxi cost was estimated at 17,700 won. The cost for users was estimated at 6,930 won. The cost of 50% demands was estimated at 6,550won. Future studies should analyze service hours of users, weather, demand pattern and trend and consider them into the cost estimation.

Change Prediction of Forestland Area in South Korea using Multinomial Logistic Regression Model (다항 로지스틱 회귀모형을 이용한 우리나라 산지면적 변화 추정에 관한 연구)

  • KWAK, Doo-Ahn
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.42-51
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    • 2020
  • This study was performed to support the 6th forest basic planning by Korea Forest Service as predicting the change of forestland area by the transition of land use type in the future over 35 years in South Korea. It is very important to analyze upcoming forestland area change for future forest planning because forestland plays a basic role to predict forest resources change for afforestation, production and management in the future. Therefore, the transitional interaction between land use types in future of South Korea was predicted in this study using econometrical models based on past trend data of land use type and related variables. The econometrical model based on maximum discounted profits theory for land use type determination was used to estimate total quantitative change by forestland, agricultural land and urban area at national scale using explanatory variables such as forestry value added, agricultural income and population during over 46 years. In result, it was analyzed that forestland area would decrease continuously at approximately 29,000 ha by 2027 while urban area increases in South Korea. However, it was predicted that the forestland area would be started to increase gradually at 170,000 ha by 2050 because urban area was reduced according to population decrement from 2032 in South Korea. We could find out that the increment of forestland would be attributed to social problems such as urban hollowing and localities extinction phenomenon by steep decrement of population from 2032. The decrement and increment of forestland by unbalanced population immigration to major cities and migration to localities might cause many social and economic problems against national sustainable development, so that future strategies and policies for forestland should be established considering such future change trends of land use type for balanced development and reasonable forestland use and conservation.