• Title/Summary/Keyword: estimate the future value

Search Result 154, Processing Time 0.031 seconds

Economic Assessment for Flood Control Infrastructure under Climate Change : A Case Study of Imjin River Basin (기후변화를 고려한 홍수방재시설물의 경제성분석 : 임진강 유역사례)

  • Kim, Kyeongseok;Oh, Seungik
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
    • /
    • v.18 no.2
    • /
    • pp.81-90
    • /
    • 2017
  • In Imjin River basin, three floods occurred between 1996 and 1999, causing many casualties and economic losses of 900 billion won. In Korea, flood damage is expected to increase in the future due to climate change. This study used the climate scenarios to estimate future flood damage costs and suggested a real options-based economic assessment method. Using proposed method, the flood control infrastructures in Imjin River basin were selected as a case study site to analyze the economic feasibility of the investment. Using RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) climate scenarios, the future flood damage costs were estimated through simulated rainfall data. This study analyzed the flood reduction benefits through investment in the flood control infrastructures. The volatility of flood damage reduction benefits were estimated assuming that the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 climate scenarios would be realized in the future. In 2071, the project option value would be determined by applying an extension option to invest in an upgrading that would allow the project to adapt to the flood of the 200-year return period. The results of the option values show that the two investment scenarios are economically feasible and the project under RCP8.5 climate scenario has more flood damage reduction benefits than RCP4.5. This study will help government decision makers to consider the uncertainty of climate change in the economic assessment of flood control infrastructures using real options analysis. We also proposed a method to quantify climate risk factors into economic values by using rainfall data provided by climate scenarios.

Prioritizing the target watersheds for permeable pavement to reduce flood damage in urban watersheds considering future climate scenarios (미래 기후 시나리오를 고려한 도시 유역 홍수 피해 저감을 위한 투수성 포장 시설 대상 유역 우선순위 선정)

  • Chae, Seung Taek;Song, Young Hoon;Lee, Joowon;Chung, Eun-Sung
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
    • /
    • v.55 no.2
    • /
    • pp.159-170
    • /
    • 2022
  • As the severity of water-related disasters increases in urban watersheds due to climate change, reducing flood damage in urban watersheds is one of the important issues. This study focuses on prioritizing the optimal site for permeable pavement to maximize the efficiency of reducing flood damage in urban watersheds in the future climate environment using multi-criteria decision making techniques. The Mokgamcheon watershed which is considerably urbanized than in the past was selected for the study area and its 27 sub-watersheds were considered as candidate sites. Six General Circulation Model (GCM) of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6(CMIP6) according to two Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios were used to estimate future monthly precipitation for the study area. The Driving force-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) framework was used to select the water quantity evaluation criteria for prioritizing permeable pavement, and the study area was modeled using ArcGIS and Storm Water Management Model (SWMM). For the values corresponding to the evaluation criteria based on the DPSIR framework, data from national statistics and long-term runoff simulation value of SWMM according to future monthly precipitation were used. Finally, the priority for permeable pavement was determined using the Fuzzy TOPSIS and Minimax regret method. The high priorities were concentrated in the downstream sub-watersheds where urbanization was more progressed and densely populated than the upstream watersheds.

Omnichannel's Perception Effect on Omnichannel Use and Customer-Brand Relationship (옴니채널의 지각된 편리성과 유용성이 옴니채널 사용과 소비자-브랜드 관계에 미치는 영향)

  • Yim, Duk-Soon;Han, Sang-Seol
    • Journal of Distribution Science
    • /
    • v.14 no.7
    • /
    • pp.83-90
    • /
    • 2016
  • Purpose - This study focuses on new type distribution channel that named as Omnichannel. Omnichannel is developed from Multichannel which is used in many distribution channels to buy or selling goods. Omnichannel basically needs an Information and Communications Technologies(ICT) to use, so researcher conduct a Technology Acceptance Model(TAM) to research model. Customer-brand relationship was used as dependent variable to focus on the role of Omnichannel. Research design, data, and methodology - The subject of this study is customer who purchase goods or service through omnichannel. Based on the literature from the preceding research analysis of TAM and customer-brand relationship, this study was constructed by the reference to previous studies, final research model design for figure out casual relationship among perceived ease of use, perceived usefulness, omnichannel use and customer-brand relationship. From 2016 February 3 to March 17, questionnaire survey targeted customers who use online and offline channels. 273 questionnaire survey had conducted, then, 252 survey data were available for empirical analysis. Researcher provide descriptive statistics for checking generality. Cronbach's alpha value was used to check the reliability of data. Exploratory factor analysis was used for purification of values and eigenvalue checking. After EFA, Confirmatory factor analysis was used to prepare structural equation modeling with executing structural equation modeling for confirming hypothesis which developed by researcher. Results - The main results of this empirical study are as follows. First, omnichannel's perceived ease of use has positive significant effect on perceived usefulness(estimate: 0.579). Moreover, omnichannel's perceived ease of use and perceived usefulness has positive significant effect on omnichannel use(estimate: 0.325,0.648). Second, using omnichannel has positive significant effect on brand-customer relationship(estimate: 0.521). Every hypothesis adopted as researcher designed. This study found out the intermediate relationship between perceived ease of use and omnichannel use by investigating hypothesis. Conclusions - Base on the empirical result, this study confirmed that TAM theory perceived has relation with omnichannel. First, factors of TAM has positive effect on omnichannel use, so it highlights the important role of customer based interface and usefulness. Especially, perceived usefulness has high indirect influence on ease of use and use of omnichannel. It seems that when customers try to decide use or not use omnichannel, customers focus on percept benefits from omnichannel. Thus, a provider should applicate attractive price table, accurate product or service information and high switching cost strategy to emphasize the usefulness of omnichannel. Second, using omnichannel enhances the relationship between customers and brand, because there are more time and frequency to serve customers. It is important because good relationship between customers can increase the future's financial performance through word of mouse, positive brand image and loyalty to brand or company. Finally, despite of empirical result and implications, this study has limitations. First, there are only a few previous studies about omnicahnnel, so literature reviews are restricted. While set up the factors which can affect the use of omnichannel, next study should be considered with broader theories or models(ex: contingency theory). Second, omnichannel has developed from multichannel, so comparative analysis is needed between these methods because there is a possibility about different forte character of each distribution system on customer's consuming patterns.

Estimation of Elderly Needing Long-term Care in S-city Gyeonggi-do according to ADL and IADL (경기도 S시 노인의 신체적 및 도구적 일상생활수행능력에 근거한 장기요양시설 보호대상자 추계)

  • Lee, Hoo-Yeon;Kim, Sung-A;Lee, Hye-Jean;Jung, Sang-Hyuk
    • Journal of agricultural medicine and community health
    • /
    • v.29 no.2
    • /
    • pp.237-247
    • /
    • 2004
  • Objectives: The purpose of this study is to estimate the needs of long-term care in S-city Gyeonggi-do according to ADL and IADL. Methods: We surveyed to investigate the needs of 397 study samples which had been selected by stratified randomized sampling, 2.7% in each Dong of S-city. We estimated the disability of elderly by using standards based on ADL and IADL of OECD and Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs. Results and Conclusions: According to standards of OECD, the elderly with severe disability were 4,712(31.2%). According to standards of Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs, the severe disabled elderly with helper were 3,776(24.9%) and the severe disabled elderly without helper 2,130(14.1%) So We concluded that the long-term care beds estimated by need were from 2,130 to 4,712. To estimate the long-term care beds, we have to consider together physical, mental, nutrition, and cognition status, existence of helper, helper characteristics, and emotional relationship between elderly and helper. But we considered only disability grades of physical states and existence of helper in this study. So it will be useful to conduct study to consider these other factors in future. At the same time this study is of value to estimate objectively long-term care needs based on physical needs in one region.

  • PDF

Study on River Management Plan Considering Ecological Preservation and Flood Control of Riverine Wetland (하도습지의 생태보전 및 치수를 고려한 하천관리 방안 연구)

  • Ann, Byoung-Yun;Kim, Taek-Min;Hong, Seung-Jin;Kim, Gil-Ho;Kim, Soo-Jun;Kim, Jae-Geun;Kim, Hung-Soo
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
    • /
    • v.16 no.4
    • /
    • pp.463-476
    • /
    • 2014
  • The riverine wetlands located in the riverside bring about social conflicts through confrontation between flood control value through flood control project and ecological preservation value of riverine wetland. In this study, we identified the importance of both values through analysis of economic feasibility of flood control and ecological values of riverine wetland, and tried to suggest management plans for riverine wetland considering both of flood control safety and ecological preservation through these results. For this, we calculated the expected annual flood damage of Imjin River using the multi-dimensional flood damage analysis(MD-FDA), and calculated the total value of riverine wetland using the contingent valuation method(CVM) to estimate preservation value of riverine wetland. The result of the analysis shows that the Imjin River needs flood control project and the ecological preservation of riverine wetland is also important. Therefore, the establishment of the management plan for protecting riverine wetland is also needed. As a result, the Imjin riverine wetland was classified as the area where sedimentation continues to take place, and the flood water level to rise. On the basis of the analyzed results, it is judged that the Imjin River needs flood control for public safety and ecological consideration for ecosystem preservation in the river improvement project. So, the stepwise river improvement is desirable to protect riverine wetland and minimize ecosystem disturbance. The results is expected to be made good use as the basic study for establishment of institutional river management plans considering flood control project and riverine wetland preservation in the future.

A Study on the Cash Policies of Retail Firms (유통 상장기업의 현금정책에 관한 연구)

  • Son, Sam-Ho
    • Journal of Distribution Science
    • /
    • v.13 no.3
    • /
    • pp.69-77
    • /
    • 2015
  • Purpose - The purpose of this study is to examine whether the cash policies of retail firms listed on Korean stock markets are consistent with the evidence provided in the study of Almeida et al. (2004). Liquidity management is an important issue for financially constrained firms relative to financially unconstrained firms. Because there are few sources of external funding, the optimal liquidity policies of financially constrained firms should reflect their own earnings or cash inflows to create opportunities for current and future real investments. According to this simple idea, we estimate the sensitivity of cash to cash flows and simply check whether the estimated sensitivity to cash flows of the cash retained by constrained retail firms is greater than that of the cash retained by unconstrained retail firms. Through this work, we aim to explain why the cash policies of the retail firms listed on the Korean stock markets differ from those of listed manufacturing enterprises. Research design, data, and methodology - To explain a firm's cash holdings, we use only three explanatory variables: earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT), Tobin's q, and size. All the variables are defined as the value of the numerator divided by aggregate assets. Thanks to this definition, it is possible to treat all the sample firms as a single large firm. The sample financial data for this study are collected from the retail enterprises listed on the KOSPI and KOSDAQ markets from 1991 to 2013. We can obtain these data from WISEfn, the financial information company. This study's methodology has its origin in Keynes's simple idea of precautionary liquidity demand: When a firm faces financial constraints, cash savings from earnings or cash inflows become important from the corporate finance perspective. Following this simple idea, Almeida et al. (2004) developed their theoretical model and found empirical evidence that the sensitivity of cash to cash flows varies systematically according to different types of financing frictions. To find more empirical evidence for this idea, we examined the cash flow sensitivity of the cash held by Korean retail firms. Results - Through several robustness tests, we empirically showed that financially constrained Korean retail firms display significant positive propensity to save cash from earnings before interest and taxes, while the estimated cash flow sensitivity of the cash held by unconstrained retail firms is not significant. Despite the relatively low earnings of retail firms, their sensitivity is three times greater than that of manufacturing enterprises. This implies that Korean retail firms have greater intentions of facilitating future investments rather than current investments. Conclusions - The characteristics of the cash policies of Korean retail firms differ from those of manufacturing firms. This contrast may be attributable to industry-oriented policy planning, regulations, and institutional differences. However, the industrial policymakers should observe signals of the long-term growth options of retail firms based on their high propensity to save from their cash inflows.

Did the Handling Fee Decline Cause Consumer Surplus in the Port Business Market in Korea? : The Case of Busan port (컨테이너 하역요율 하락은 소비자잉여를 증가시켰는가? : 부산항을 중심으로)

  • Choi, Gun-Woo;Kim, Chan-Ho;Kim, Young-Kyu
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
    • /
    • v.32 no.3
    • /
    • pp.109-122
    • /
    • 2016
  • As increasing of container throughputs, port business market in Korea has been developed. However, due to the introducing of a handling fee reporting system in 1999 and surplus of facilities, port business market in Korea turned into deadly competition with lowering the handling fee. Due to the reasons, the handling fee in 2015 declined as much as 50% of in 2000. Therefore, this study analyzed whether the handling fee decline caused consumer surplus in the port business market of Korea or not. To do that, this study applied a methodology of Alexander for estimating the consumer surplus and Hausman's model using Hicksian demand. As the result of the analyzing, due to the excessive decreasing of the handling fee compared the import & export demand, consumer surplus of the port business market in Korea was decreased. However, due to the exception of transshipment from demand in this study, transshipment demand is needed to be considered to estimate of economic value of port business market in Korea in the future. Also, economic value of port business including subsidiary businesses will be estimated in order to strengthen the method for estimating economic benefit of port construction.

Cost-Benefit Analysis on Marine Transportation Safety Facility Using CVM(Contingent Valuation Method) (CVM을 이용한 해상교통안전시설 투자 편익 분석)

  • Kim, Sooyeob;Lee, Gunwoo
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
    • /
    • 2014.06a
    • /
    • pp.73-75
    • /
    • 2014
  • Marine transportation facility is public goods for the general public and their safety. The study used the Contingent Valuation Method (CVM), a method to estimate economic value of non-market goods, such as environmental goods. In order to analyze economic effects of marine accidents preventable by the VTS, the study estimated costs caused by marine accident cases. It conducted surveys with people and shipping companies in local areas where VTS is to be established in the future. According to a survey with people in areas where marine transportation control center is to be built (Tongyoung), the yearly benefit from building new VTS is estimated at KRW 11billion. If fees are paid in the form of income tax for five years from 2014, corresponding benefits during the same period will reach KRW 47.3 billion in current value. An analysis on economic validity of VTS establishment in Tongyong showed the B/C ration stood at 3.193, far higher than 1. The Net Present Value (NPV) was KRW 32.5 billion and the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) turned out to be 37.4% which was higher than social discount rates of 53.5%. On balance, the establishment has reasonable economic validity.

  • PDF

Deflection of Ultra-high Energy Cosmic Rays by the Galactic Magnetic Field

  • Kim, Jihyun;Kim, Hang Bae;Ryu, Dongsu
    • The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
    • /
    • v.39 no.2
    • /
    • pp.73.1-73.1
    • /
    • 2014
  • We investigate the influence of the galactic magnetic field (GMF) on the arrival direction (AD) of ultra-high energy cosmic rays (UHECRs) by searching the correlation with the large-scale structure (LSS) of the universe. The deflection angle of UHECRs from sources by the GMF is reflected in a source model by introducing the Gaussian smearing angle as a free parameter. Assuming the deflections by the GMF are mainly dependent on the galactic latitude, b, we divide the regions of sky by b and analyze the correlation between the AD of UHECRs and the LSS of the universe in each region varying the smearing angle. We find the deflection is strongly dependent on the galactic latitude by the maximum likelihood estimation. Specifically, the best-fit smearing angles are $9^{\circ}$ and $84^{\circ}$ in the high galactic latitude (HGL), $-90^{\circ}$ < b < $-60^{\circ}$, and in the low galactic latitude (LGL), $-30^{\circ}$ < b < $30^{\circ}$, respectively. The strength of GMF becomes stronger from the HGL to the LGL. From the results, we can estimate the strength of GMF in each region. In the LGL, for example, if we assume UHECRs are protons, we have the order of $100{\mu}G$ GMF, which is much stronger than the expected value of conventional GMF model. However, if the primaries are heavy nuclei, which is consistent with the observational result of mass composition analysis, the order of GMF strength is a few ${\mu}G$. More data from the future experiments make it possible to study the GMF between the source of UHECRs and Earth more accurately.

  • PDF

An Evaluation of Biotope Based on Its Valuation Criteria in Terms of Conservation of Species and Habitat (평가지표에 의한 도시 비오톱의 가치평가 -생물종과 서식처 보전을 중심으로-)

  • 나정화;류연수;사공정희
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
    • /
    • v.29 no.1
    • /
    • pp.100-112
    • /
    • 2001
  • The purpose of this study is to construct the evaluation criteria based on the relative importance and various combination of each evaluation index and then to evaluate urban biotope in terms of conservation of species and habitat. After the standard of evaluation had been developed through the literature review, the relative importance of the evaluation index through expert survey was found out, and the evaluation model of biotope value has been established. The results of this study are as follows; 1) We have constructed the nineteen evaluation criteria through literature reviews, and have provided relative importance to each evaluation index of the diversity of typical species in biotope, afforestation rate, stratification, Hemeroby grads, and the diversity of landscape patterns based on the results of expert survey. and then we have constructed the evaluation system using the relative importance criteria. 2) To evluate urban biotope using the evaluation system constructed, we selected 14 sites. The final evaluation results of each site is as follows; The III grade areas are Seohan and Hwasung high-rise apartment at Beummul-Dong, Korea Men Power /Agency in Sungs 대 industrial zone, the adjacent area of St. Tongil, and Hyomyung elementary school. The II grade areas are the farm land behind the third Anshim Jugong apartment, and Ehyun park. The I grade areas are swampy land in front of Kangchon and Anshim construction site, water space with semi-natural style in front of Gangchon Woobang apartment, forest zone near page Temple at mt. Palgong, the edge area of Jisan and Gosan, and the tendril yard against Anshim middle school. The only grade IV area is the commercial zone near Taegu Department 3) It is highly useful to evaluate urban biotope using the evaluation criteria constructed for this research, the evaluation criteria we developed may be difficult to guarantee the ability for reproduction and recovery, the appearance-number of the rare and endangered species are difficult to estimate urban biotopes. In the future, it is highly useful to evaluate biotope in terms of conservation of species and habitat through its valuation criteria developed in this research and it is necessary to develop the evaluation criteria applicable to estimation of biotope inventory and reproduction of biotope.

  • PDF