Journal of Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회논문집)

Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회)
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Prioritizing the target watersheds for permeable pavement to reduce flood damage in urban watersheds considering future climate scenarios

미래 기후 시나리오를 고려한 도시 유역 홍수 피해 저감을 위한 투수성 포장 시설 대상 유역 우선순위 선정

  • Chae, Seung Taek (Department Civil Engineering, Seoul National University of Science and Technology) ;
  • Song, Young Hoon (Department Civil Engineering, Seoul National University of Science and Technology) ;
  • Lee, Joowon (Department Civil Engineering, Seoul National University of Science and Technology) ;
  • Chung, Eun-Sung (Department Civil Engineering, Seoul National University of Science and Technology)
  • 채승택 (서울과학기술대학교 건설시스템공학과) ;
  • 송영훈 (서울과학기술대학교 건설시스템공학과) ;
  • 이주원 (서울과학기술대학교 건설시스템공학과) ;
  • 정은성 (서울과학기술대학교 건설시스템공학과)
  • Received : 2021.12.02
  • Accepted : 2022.01.05
  • Published : 2022.02.28
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Abstract

As the severity of water-related disasters increases in urban watersheds due to climate change, reducing flood damage in urban watersheds is one of the important issues. This study focuses on prioritizing the optimal site for permeable pavement to maximize the efficiency of reducing flood damage in urban watersheds in the future climate environment using multi-criteria decision making techniques. The Mokgamcheon watershed which is considerably urbanized than in the past was selected for the study area and its 27 sub-watersheds were considered as candidate sites. Six General Circulation Model (GCM) of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6(CMIP6) according to two Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios were used to estimate future monthly precipitation for the study area. The Driving force-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) framework was used to select the water quantity evaluation criteria for prioritizing permeable pavement, and the study area was modeled using ArcGIS and Storm Water Management Model (SWMM). For the values corresponding to the evaluation criteria based on the DPSIR framework, data from national statistics and long-term runoff simulation value of SWMM according to future monthly precipitation were used. Finally, the priority for permeable pavement was determined using the Fuzzy TOPSIS and Minimax regret method. The high priorities were concentrated in the downstream sub-watersheds where urbanization was more progressed and densely populated than the upstream watersheds.

기후변화로 인한 도시유역의 물 관련 재해의 심각성이 증가함에 따라 미래 기후 환경에서 도시 유역의 홍수피해를 줄이는 것은 중요한 문제 중 하나이다. 본 연구는 다기준의사결정기법을 이용하여 미래 기후 환경에서 도시 유역의 홍수 피해 저감 효율을 극대화하기 위해 투수성 포장 시설을 설치하기 위한 지역의 우선순위를 선정한다. 과거에 비해 도시화가 많이 진행된 목감천 유역을 대상유역으로 선정하였으며, 목감천 유역의 27개 소유역을 투수성 포장 시설의 설치 가능지역으로 하였다. 2개의 Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 시나리오에 따른 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6(CMIP6)의 6개 전지구모형(General Circulation Model, GCM)을 사용하여 연구대상지의 미래 월 강수 자료를 추정했다. 투수성 포장의 우선순위를 결정하기 위한 수량 평가 기준은 Driving force-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) 체계를 토대로 선정하였으며, 평가 기준별 투수성 포장 시설의 평가값은 국가통계자료와 Storm Water Management Model의 모의 값을 사용했다. 최종적으로 Fuzzy TOPSIS 및 Minimax regret 방법을 사용하여 투수성 시설을 설치하기 위한 지역의 우선순위를 선정했다. 결국 우선순위가 높은 지역은 목감천 유역의 상류 유역에 비해 도시화가 많이 진행되었고 인구밀도가 높은 하류유역에 집중되었다.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

본 연구는 서울과학기술대학교 교내연구비 지원에 의해 수행되었습니다.

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