• Title/Summary/Keyword: economic uncertainty

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The impact of market fear, uncertainty, stock market, and maritime freight index on the risk-return relationship in the crude oil market (시장 공포, 불확실성, 주식시장, 해상운임지수가 원유시장의 위험-수익 관계에 미치는 영향)

  • Choi, Ki-Hong
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.38 no.4
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    • pp.107-118
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    • 2022
  • In this study, daily data from January 2002 to June 2022 were used to investigate the relationship between risk-return relationship and market fear, uncertainty, stock market, and maritime freight index for the crude oil market. For this study, the time varying EGARCH-M model was applied to the risk-return relationship, and the wavelet consistency model was used to analyze the relationship between market fear, uncertainty, stock market, and maritime freight index. The analysis results of this study are as follows. First, according to the results of the time-varying risk-return relationship, the crude oil market was found to be related to high returns and high risks. Second, the results of correlation and Granger causality test, it was found that there was a weak correlation between the risk-return relationship and VIX, EPU, S&P500, and BDI. In addition, it was found that there was no two-way causal relationship in the risk-return relationship with EPU and S&P500, but VIX and BDI were found to affect the risk-return relationship. Third, looking at the results of wavelet coherence, it was found that the degree of the risk-return relationship and the relationship between VIX, EPU, S&P500, and BDI was time-varying. In particular, it was found that the relationship between each other was high before and after the crisis period (financial crisis, COVID-19). And it was found to be highly associated with organs. In addition, the risk-return relationship was found to have a positive relationship with VIX and EPU, and a negative relationship with S&P500 and BDI. Therefore, market participants should be well aware of economic environmental changes when making decisions.

A Study on the Influencing Relationships of Transaction Risk and Purchase Value on Repurchase Intention for the Second-hand Products (거래위험과 구매가치가 중고제품 재구매 의도에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구)

  • Han-Min Kim;Sang Cheol Park;Jong Uk Kim
    • Knowledge Management Research
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.193-218
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    • 2024
  • The current study investigated the factors influencing the buyer's repurchase intention for second-hand products. This study first identified perceived risk and purchase value as the two primary influencing variables. Additionally, some exogenous variables influencing these two variables were examined. Statistical analysis using Partial Least Squares (PLS) revealed that product uncertainty, seller uncertainty, and site trust had statistically significant relationships with perceived transaction risk. However, while economic benefit showed a significant impact on purchase value, product scarcity and resale value did not exhibit a significant relationship with purchase value. Perceived transaction risk was found to have an insignificant relationship with repurchase intention, but indirectly influenced repurchase intention through purchase value. Purchase value was identified as having a significant influence on repurchase intention. Therefore, it was concluded that purchase value is the most important factor influencing repurchase intention in the purchase of second-hand products, while transaction risk indirectly influences repurchase intention through purchase value. The study indicates that product uncertainty and economic benefit are the most significant exogenous factors influencing transaction risk and purchase value, respectively.

Review of Programs for Improving Patient's Access to Medicines (의약품 접근성 향상을 위한 방안 고찰)

  • Kim, EuGene;Kim, Younhee
    • Korean Journal of Clinical Pharmacy
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.40-50
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    • 2018
  • Objective: This study presented the analysis period, the complexity of combined therapy and comparator choice as the key limitations in the economic evaluation of new drugs, and discussed programs for coping with these limitations. Methods: This study evaluated the post-evaluation, risk-sharing agreement, extra funding program, and flexible incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) threshold as actions or programs that would increase accessibility to costly new drugs. The study also presented the cases of other countries. The application of the post-evaluation was considered to deal with high uncertainty regarding new drugs. Results: The risk-sharing agreement was introduced in European countries as well as South Korea and has been responsible for the shift from using the financial schemes to outcome-based schemes. The drug funding program has had troubled in securing stable extra funds. The application of higher ICER in the economic evaluation of expensive and innovative oncology drugs was criticized because of the inequity between oncology patients and patients with other diseases. Conclusion: Therefore, introducing and applying actions that would increase the accessibility to costly new drugs in South Korea have been deemed necessary after careful reviews and discussions with various stakeholders (insurer, policy makers, pharmaceutical companies and patients).

Effects of Exchange Rate Risk and Industrial Activity Uncertainty on Import Container Volume in Korea (환위험과 경기 불확실성이 우리나라의 수입물동량에 미치는 영향)

  • Kim, Chang-Beom
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.88-100
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    • 2010
  • This paper investigates the influence of industrial activity volatility and exchange rate volatility on import container volume of the Korea during the 1999:1- 2010:9. Conditional variance from the GARCH(1, 1) model is applied as the volatility. The Johansen multivariate cointegration method and the error correction (general-to-specific) method are applied to study the relationship between import volume and its determinants. The empirical results show that volatility has statistically significant negative effect on import volume.

Effects of Ethical Ideologies on the Korean Consumers' Perceptions and Purchase Intentions of Fashion Counterfeits (소비자의 윤리의식이 패션복제품에 대한 인식 및 구매의도에 미치는 영향)

  • Lee, Mi-Young;Johnson, Kim K.P.
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Clothing and Textiles
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    • v.31 no.12
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    • pp.1793-1802
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    • 2007
  • This study examined the relationship between consumers' ethical ideologies and consumers' perceptions of fashion counterfeits. Forsyth's Ethics Position Questionnaire(EPQ) measuring consumers' ethical ideologies-- idealism and relativism -- was used. College students enrolled at a large university in a metropolitan area participated(N=314). There were no significant differences between counterfeit purchasers and non-purchasers on their ethical ideologies, while there were significant differences between these two groups on their perceptions toward two of the perceptions toward counterfeit factors: economic and psychological uncertainty. Idealism was not significantly related to participants' perceptions toward fashion counterfeit, while relativism was positively related only to participants' perceptions concerning the return-related uncertainty of fashion counterfeits. The results of a multiple regression revealed that consumers' economic, psychological, and return-related uncertainty were significant predictors of intent to buy counterfeit goods.

Suggestion on Seismic Hazard Assessment of Nuclear Power Plant Sites in Korea (국내 원전부지 지진재해도 평가를 위한 제언)

  • Kang, Tae-Seob;Yoo, Hyun Jae
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.51 no.2
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    • pp.203-211
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    • 2018
  • Issues with past practice in seismic hazard analysis of nuclear power plant sites in Korea are addressed. Brief review on both deterministic and probabilistic methods in seismic hazard analysis is given, and most of the continuing discussion is focussed on the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. Causes of uncertainty are traced on the basis of the cases that the assessment methodology was applied to the nuclear power plant sites. Considerations on the assessment include the role of experts, a representative seismic catalog, seismic source zonation, earthquake ground-motion relationship, and evaluation process. Factors increasing uncertainty in each item are analyzed and some feasible solutions are discussed.

Economic Evaluation of Port Hinterlands Using Real Option -Focusing on the Case Study for Hinterland of Busan New Port- (실물옵션을 이용한 항만배후단지의 가치평가 -부산신항 배후단지 사례분석을 중심으로-)

  • Kim, MyoungHee;Lee, Kihwan
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.235-257
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    • 2012
  • Recently the role of ports has been changed to satisfy flexibly needs of demands in global economy. A new concept for ports is not just a place for international trade but an important nodal point in logistics chain. The changing environment like this trend creates a high degree of uncertainty and leaves port managers confused with the question how to respond effectively to dynamic market. The latest studies provide that the port must have a good hinterland to achieve competitive advantages in a logistics chain. Korean Government announced "The Master Development Plan for Port Logistics Parks in Korea" in 2006. This contains the plan of hinterland construction of Busan New Port to achieve the status of logistics hub in Asian market. Previous studies rely solely on traditional DCF(discounted cash flow) analysis for investment of hinterland. However DCF method does not include irreversibility, uncertainty and the choice of timing for investment project. This thesis introduces a ROPM(real options pricing model) which overcomes the limitations of traditional valuation methods. The option valuations in this study utilize the Black-Scholes model, the binomial model and the MonteCarlo simulation to value investment opportunity of a port hinterland. In this thesis, an attempt is made to modify the NPV criterion by incorporating the real options approach, and its application is demonstrated in a hinterland construction investment plan. This research has conducted an empirical analysis by calculating economic value of the investment for a hinterland of Busan New Port.

A Study for Improving Trade and Commerce between Korea and Russia

  • Park, Ho-Yong;Lee, Kil-Nam
    • International Commerce and Information Review
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    • v.11 no.3
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    • pp.339-361
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    • 2009
  • This paper attempts to provide a way to improvement in trade & commerce between Korea and Russia, analyzing the influence of the circumstances of the Russian economy on economic relations between the two countries. The study briefly reviews the current situation of the Russian economy, and tries to examine the strong points to be considered as leverage for cooperation and the weak points to be overcome. Previous studies have determined that the Russian economy has unlimited potential for growth, because it is endowed with abundant resources, and has a government willing to reform for the opening of the economy, as well as high-quality labor. However, the economic structure is vulnerable to impact of the worldwide financial crisis. It is not possible to overlook its institutional fragility and vulnerability such as a corrupt bureaucracy or a relatively large black market. These undesirable factors may not only undermine the basis of Russia economy but also a hindrance to economic cooperation by increasing economic uncertainty. This paper attempts to analyze comprehensively the socio-economic factors that influence the open-economy of Russia, and to illustrate strategies for improvement in trade and commerce through the viewpoint of Korean firms that are already in business or are trying to enter in the near future. Some measures to improve their economic cooperation are suggested at the end.

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A Study for Improving Trade and Commerce between Korea and Russia

  • Park, Ho-Yong;Lee, Kil-Nam
    • International Commerce and Information Review
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    • v.2 no.1
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    • pp.83-103
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    • 2009
  • This paper attempts to provide a way to improvement in trade & commerce between Korea and Russia, analyzing the influence of the circumstances of the Russian economy on economic relations between the two countries. The study briefly reviews the current situation of the Russian economy, and tries to examine the strong points to be considered as leverage for cooperation and the weak points to be overcome. Previous studies have determined that the Russian economy has unlimited potential for growth, because it is endowed with abundant resources, and has a government willing to reform for the opening of the economy, as well as high-quality labor. However, the economic structure is vulnerable to impact of the worldwide financial crisis. It is not possible to overlook its institutional fragility and vulnerability such as a corrupt bureaucracy or a relatively large black market. These undesirable factors may not only undermine the basis of Russia economy but also a hindrance to economic cooperation by increasing economic uncertainty. This paper attempts to analyze comprehensively the socio-economic factors that influence the open-economy of Russia, and to illustrate strategies for improvement in trade and commerce through the viewpoint of Korean firms that are already in business or are trying to enter in the near future. Some measures to improve their economic cooperation are suggested at the end.

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