• Title/Summary/Keyword: economic uncertainty

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Development and application of the estimation method of flood damage in the ungauged basin using satellite data (위성자료를 활용한 미계측유역의 홍수피해액 추산기법 개발 및 적용)

  • Yeom, Woong-Sun;Park, Dong-Hyeok;Ahn, Jaehyun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.53 no.12
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    • pp.1183-1192
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    • 2020
  • Economic analysis is a basic step in establishing disaster mitigation measures, but it is difficult to verify the results due to uncertainty. Therefore, the scope of investigation and analysis is wide. However, it is difficult to predict the amount of damage caused by flooding because the collection of relevant data is limited in the ungauged basin. In this study, distributed runoff analysis and flooding analysis were performed, and a method of estimating the amount of flood damage in the ungauged basin was proposed using collectible social and economic indicators and flood analysis results. For distributed runoff analysis and flooding analysis, GRM (Grid based Rainfall-runoff Model) and G2D (Grid based 2-Dimensional land surface flood model) developed by Korea Institute of Civil engineering and Building Technology were used. The method of substituting collectible social and economic indicators into the simple method and improvement method was used to estimate the amount of flood damage. As a result of the study, it was possible to estimate the amount of flood damage using satellite data and social and economic indicators in the ungauged basin.

Southeast Asia and ASEAN in 2016: Disappointing Records and Increasing Uncertainty (동남아와 아세안 2016: 기대와 혼돈 속에 커져가는 불확실성)

  • SHIN, Yoon Hwan
    • The Southeast Asian review
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.95-129
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    • 2017
  • This study surveys and reviews political change, economic performance, and regional cooperation that were carried out in 2016 by Southeast Asian countries and ASEAN. This paper reports that what has followed the inauguration of new governments in Myanmar, the Philippines, Vietnam, and Laos fails to live up to the expectation and optimism that arose in the aftermath of elections and party congresses that took place in the first half of the year. In other countries such as Malaysia, Thailand, and Cambodia, where authoritarian regimes are faced with strong oppositions, the prospects for democratic change worsened to a substantial degree, as schisms and internal strives complicated the opposition camp as a result of instigation and intervention by the authoritarian leaders and their followers. In stable political systems, both democratic and authoritarian, no significant changes that may entail serious political implications were noticed. In 2016, the national economy of almost each and every country continued its slow but steady recovery that had started in 2014 and grew by 5% on the average. For 2017 onward, however, the earlier optimism that it would grow at least as fast dimmed down as uncertainty about the world economy looms larger due to the unexpected win by Donald Trump as U.S. president and the expected 'hard landing' of the Chinese economy around 2018. ASEAN declared the launch of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) only one day before the New Year, but its track record looked already bad and unpromising by the end of 2016. ASEAN leaders were tied up by their domestic politics and affairs too tightly to take time off to work seriously to observe the schedule as laid out in the AEC Blueprint 2025. Korea's relationship with Southeast Asian countries and ASEAN was "as good as it gets" in 2016 as ever but could become subject to tough review in the near future, if the Ministry of Foreign Affairs is found out to have been implicated in the ongoing Choi Sun Sil scandal and if the opposition wins the next presidential election to be held by this year.

Research on the Rational Solution for Oriental Medical Conflicts - Focusing on the relieving role of KCA in oriental medical disputes - (한방의료분쟁의 합리적인 해결방안 연구 - 한국소비자원의 한방의료 피해구제를 중심으로 -)

  • Jeong, Mi-Young
    • The Korean Society of Law and Medicine
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.383-422
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    • 2008
  • Considering above, It might be efficient that medical disputes would be settled by the intervention, the agreement, and the administrative relief that reflect mediators' opinion, who have rich social experience as well as specialized knowledge. Therefore, KCA needs to strengthen its function of mediation and improve relevant systems to become an effective settlement institution. And although Oriental medicine disputes have mainly given ex post facto explanations so far, administrative efforts such as policy development or legislation should be made for the high quality of Oriental medical services offered because an efficient way saving social or economic costs caused by the dispute would be precautionary measures. The traditional Oriental medicine is featured with the lack of baseline examination, the uncertainty of medical mistakes, the difficulty in clarifying and proving facts, the hardship of injury conformation and causality because of the characteristics of Oriental medicine, and the relative lightness of physical damages. Actually, there has been few legal settlements in Oriental medical disputes since the compensation, itself, compared to the lawsuit cost, is relatively much lower without practical benefits.

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Application of Risk Management to Forecasting Transportation Demand by Delphi Technique (Delphi기법을 통한 교통수요예측 Risk Management 적용 방안)

  • Chung, Sung-Bong;Yi, Su-Ho;Namkung, Baek-Kyu
    • Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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    • 2011.05a
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    • pp.1572-1581
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    • 2011
  • Since 'The Act on Private Investment of The Infrastructure' was established in 1994, private investment as well as government's investment has been active on transport infrastructure. But investment of transport infrastructure has more risks than others due to overforecast of transport demand for ensuring project validity, and cost uncertainty arising from financial crisis, commodity prices and so on. In the case of Incheon international airport express, after 2 years and 6 months, Incheon international airport express is opened, Korail take over equity stake in private investor due to the problems of MRG(Minimum Revenue Guarantee) be contracted with private investor. Not only that, in other case of Yong-in light rail, it is ongoing for legal disputes between Yong-in local government and private investor on account of opening delaying. On current Investment Assessment System of Transport Infrastructure, Risk Management system on investment of transport infrastructure is inadequate because Sensitivity Analysis in economic efficiency have been performed on the simple method which only changes benefits, expense and social discount rate. For this reason, this study analyze risks for investment of transport infrastructure demand forecast, and rise to the management practice for every particular item.

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The Role of Weather and Climate Information as a Growth Engine for Passing the Gross Domestic Product per Head of $20,000 (국민소득 2만달러 달성의 성장엔진으로서 기상정보의 역할)

  • Kim, Yeong-Sin;Lee, Ki-Bong;Kim, Hoe-Cheol
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.27-34
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    • 2005
  • High quality meteorological information is the typical product of service business industry which can offer the investment initiative by reducing the uncertainty and by activating other related industries. It requires a high level of meteorological technology and of ability to transform such technology as merchandising products. According to the analysis of the WMO data, the level of Korean meteorological technology is comparable to that of the nation with $17,500, GDP per head. However, the income of the meteorological business agent earns in Korea is 8 billion 4 hundred million won which is less than a tenth of that made by the US or Japan. The potential for such business field in Korea will be strong enough, if one can overcome such weak points. In addition, the efforts made by the government to advance the meteorological technology have been actualized gradually. Korean government will have a chance that is comparable to offering jobs for 20,000 unemployed by creating incomes of 40 billion won by meteorological technology as a sustained economic growth engine. It is proposed that government stimulate demand and supply by focusing on sales quantity than the price. The key points for creating the new demand are marketing and outsourcing of weather and climate information by maintaining the cooperative relationship between private and public sector.

The Sensitivity Comparison of Each Risk Factors Analysis on Renewable Energy and Other Generating Technologies (신재생 에너지와 기존 발전기술과의 투자리스크 요인별 민감도 비교)

  • Koh, Kyung-Ho;Park, Se-Ik
    • New & Renewable Energy
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    • v.7 no.4
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    • pp.10-17
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    • 2011
  • Recently, electricity industry is facing high market uncertainty which has ever had and which increase risks in power market. In this study, we analyze risk factors such as discount rates, initial investment (overnight cost), plant factor, fuel cost, carbon price, etc, for the perspective of investor. For the analysis of risk factors, we used LCOE method. The results of this study show that renewable energy is more affected by plant factor and overnight cost than other risk factors. First, Renewable energy has higher proportion of overnight cost in the total investment than that of other technologies. Second, renewable energy is free of fuel cost and carbon price so plant factor is the most important factor, in other words, competitiveness of renewable energy depends on plant factor. Furthermore, we conducted economic feasibility of wind power and PV in domestic case study. The minimum requirement condition to get profitability is that plant factor 15% and overnight cost \6,000,000/kW and 26%, \2,200,000/kW for PV and Wind Power, respectively.

Theoretical Considerations on Fisheries Resource Management and Public Choice (어업자원 이용관리와 공공선택에 관한 이론적 고찰)

  • 박성쾌
    • The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.1-12
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    • 2000
  • The experience of many countries strongly suggests that bad governments and institutions have been a serious, if not the most serious, obstacle to economic growth and industry-structural adjustments. All public sectors pursue a mix of both predatory and productive activities-bad governments emphasizing the former, while good governments finding a way of promoting the later. In fishery public policy studies, much confusion exists about the roles of policy illustration and prescription. In general fishery public sectors involve collective actions by numerous individuals under conditions of uncertainty, complexity, bounded rationality, and imperfect information structure. All collective fisheries action organizations consist of a center(e.g., government), which leads fishery group actions, and peripheral participants(e.g., fishermen), which are controlled by the government. A paradigm is developed that gives both theoretical and empirical meaning to the constitutional determination of fisheries political preference function or fishery public sector governance structures. Three relevant spaces are specified: policy instrument, results, and constitutional. The collective-choice rules of the constitutional space structure the tradeoff between public and special fishery interest groups. Fishery public sectors seeking sustainable reductions in wasteful rent-seeking fishing activities should select constitutional principles and institutional structures that tend to promote resource sustainability. In particular, the effects of internal and external events on fisheries may result in a greater or lesser concentration of interest group power. Thus, the structure of the fishereis political power must be assessed in any prescriptive evaluation of alternative fishery governance weights.

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The Rules of law for the Hardship in the UNIDROIT Principles of International Commercial Contracts (국제상사계약에 관한 UNIDROIT원칙에 있어서 이행곤란(Hardship)의 법리)

  • Hong, Sung Kyu;Kim, Yong Il
    • THE INTERNATIONAL COMMERCE & LAW REVIEW
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    • v.57
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    • pp.3-34
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    • 2013
  • In the international sales contract, long-term contracts often face hardship in fulfilling the original contract terms by relevant parties due to rapid change and uncertainty of political and economic circumstance. In this case, party who faces hardship of fulfillment terminates contract or demands adaptation to contract condition but if opponent doesn't accept this, it proceeds to commercial dispute needing legal interpretation. Generally it is wise to set forth governing law in contract between parties in the case of international contract, for legal stability. One of universal governing law which relevant parties select by agreement to solve economical hardship of fulfillment is PICC. PICC defines the hardship in detail for renegotiation on following hardship of fulfillment unexpected. In the case of failing renegotiation, Court(arbitral tribunal) conducts termination to contract or adaptation to contract condition through arbitration or mediation. In conclusion, when signing international long-term contract, it is desirous to handle dispute effectively by inserting provisions which can deal with economical hardship in contract or defining PICC as governing law in the case of hardship incurred. It is because it is realistic to handle dispute smoothly to the extent that both parties can be satisfied in the case of hardship incurred, though international contract should be fulfilled.

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An Analysis and Evaluation of the Effectiveness of Decision Making During the Review of Scientifically Constructed Project Proposals

  • Abdykerova, G.Zh;Bukayeva, A.D.
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.3 no.2
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    • pp.31-44
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    • 2008
  • A selection technique for innovative projects on the beginning stage has been presented in this article. It can be applied in projects assessment in HEI, enterprises, development institutes, etc. It is rather difficult to assess the project quality on the beginning stage of R&D due to the uncertainty in the technical and economic indices but the new development analysis on this stage is of a great interest. By innovative project quality as a management object we will mean those characteristics relating to the results capacity of the projects and its realization process to satisfy the requirements to the innovative products competitiveness and their innovative attractiveness for investors. The most important question in the innovative projects management is the determination of its quality level under modern conditions. The aim of the research is to analyze and evaluate the decision making during the project management process. The objectives and hypotheses are assessment of an innovative project with the application of McKinsey's model is better to realizes by 3 stages: a) selection of optimal criteria; b) determination of weighing coefficients; c) projects positioning in a matrix.

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An Experimental Study on Properties of Seabed Unconsolidated Sediment for Wind Power System Construction (해상풍력발전단지 건설 시 해양미고결지반 물성 파악을 위한 실험 연구)

  • Yoo, Hyun-Jong;Lim, Jong-Se;Shin, Sung-Ryul;Jang, Won-Yil;Yoon, Ji-Ho
    • Journal of Advanced Marine Engineering and Technology
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    • v.32 no.2
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    • pp.365-373
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    • 2008
  • When the wind power system is planned to construct, it is important to understand the physical, chemical and mechanical properties of sediment. Especially, If it is the seabed unconsolidated sediment, we need to experiment on sediment through seabed unconsolidated sediment test and sediment survey. Because the sediment's properties are different as its formation, accumulation and load, unconsolidated sediment is difficult to be expected to its behavior. So we can estimate suitability for mechanical material and decrease the uncertainty through seabed unconsolidated sediment test. Seabed unconsolidated sediment test can be experimented in laboratory or in-situ as purpose, in-situ condition, economic problem. In this study, we sampled the seabed unconsolidated sediment at offshore around Korea Maritime University and measured properties of sediment through the laboratory test, showed the effect on physical properties of seabed unconsolidated sediment when the wind power system is planned to construction.