• 제목/요약/키워드: economic uncertainty

검색결과 432건 처리시간 0.027초

한국 사회와 개인 삶의 질 인식에 대한 토착심리 탐구: 삶의 질을 높이는 요소와 낮추는 요소에 대한 세대별 지각을 중심으로 (Factors influencing quality of life for individuals and Korean society: Indigenous psychological analysis across different generations)

  • 박영신;김의철
    • 한국심리학회지 : 문화 및 사회문제
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    • 제12권1호
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    • pp.161-195
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    • 2006
  • 이 연구의 주된 목적은 한국 사람들이 한국 사회와 개인 삶의 질에 대해 갖고 있는 인식을 분석함으로써 토착심리를 탐구하는데 있다. 삶의 질을 높이는 요소와 낮추는 요소에 대한 세대별 지각을 중심으로 분석하였으며, 개인 삶의 질로는 가정, 학교, 직장, 여가생활에서의 삶의 질이 포함되었다. 분석대상은 총 3,406명으로서 남녀 초, 중, 고, 대학생 1,331명과 그들의 부모 및 교사 2,075명이었다. 김의철과 박영신(2004b)이 제작한 자유반응형 질문지를 실시하여 분석한 결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 한국 사회의 삶의 질을 높이는 요소로 경제적 요인, 국민들의 노력, 문화/여가생활, 원만한 인간관계, 올바른 정책, 교육수준이, 한국 사회의 삶의 질을 낮추는 요소로 경제 불안, 정치 불안, 시민의식 결여, 집단 이기주의, 부정부패/비리, 여가생활 부족, 과도한 교육열이 지적되었다. 둘째, 개인의 가정생활에서 삶의 질은 화목한 가족관계와 경제적 여유가, 학교생활에서 삶의 질은 친구관계와 학업성취가, 직장생활에서 삶의 질은 원만한 인간관계와 경제적 요인 및 성취감이, 여가생활에서 삶의 질은 경제적이고 시간적인 여유 및 인간관계가 중요하였다. 셋째, 세대집단별 인식 차이가 있었다. 한국 사회 삶의 질을 낮추는 요소로 학생은 정치 불안을, 성인은 경제 불안을 가장 많이 지적하였다. 가정생활 삶의 질을 낮추는 요소로 학생은 가족 간의 갈등을, 성인은 경제문제를 가장 많이 지적하였다. 여가생활 삶의 질을 낮추는 요소로, 학생은 시간 부족을, 성인은 경제적 여건을 가장 많이 지적하였다. 넷째, 학생은 가정의 경제수준이 높을수록, 나이가 어릴수록, 학업성적이 좋을수록, 자기의 삶의 질을 긍정적으로 인식하였다. 성인의 경우는 나이와 관계없이, 가정의 경제수준이 높을수록, 사회생활에서 성취도가 높을수록, 자기의 삶의 질을 긍정적으로 인식하였다. 이러한 결과들을 종합하여, 삶의 질 인식을 통해 본 한국인의 토착심리를 원만한 인간관계, 경제적 요인, 자기조절, 교육적 성취의 네 측면에서 논의하였다.

수문·수리학적 / 지반공학적 불확실성을 고려한 제방의 복합위험도 산정 (Estimating the compound risk integrated hydrological / hydraulic / geotechnical uncertainty of levee systems)

  • 남명준;이재영;이철우;김기영
    • 한국수자원학회논문집
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    • 제50권4호
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    • pp.277-288
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    • 2017
  • 본 연구에서는 발생가능한 홍수시나리오를 기반으로 하천제방의 복합위험도를 산정하고자 하였다. 이를 위해 불확실성을 고려한 수문학적/수리학적/지반공학적의 위험도를 각각 MCMC (Markov Chain Monte Carlo), MCS (Monte Carlo Simulation), FOSM (First-Order Second Moment) 기법을 활용하여 해석하였으며, 이들 각각의 확률을 연계하여 결합확률 형태로 나타내었다. 적용대상 유역은 낙동강에 위치한 강정고령보를 기점으로 상 하류 12.5 km 구간으로 선정하였으며, 구간내의 총 6구간의 제방이 포함된다. 수문시나리오는 제방 월류가 발생하는 100년/200년 빈도 신뢰구간 상한치(97.5%)의 홍수량이 사용되었고, 이에 따른 홍수위 해석을 수행하여 월류위험도를 산정하였으며 월류가 발생하지 않는 구간에서는 침투, 사면안정, 수위급강하 등 제방의 지반공학적 위험도를 산정하였다. 기존 결정론적 위험도 해석보다 확률론적 위험도 해석에 의한 복합위험도가 제방설계에 보다 안정적, 경제적인 상승효과를 가져올 수 있을 것이며, 향후 수변구조물 설계에 지표로 사용될 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

대리인-선주간의 최적보상계약에 관한 연구 (Optimal Payment Contracts in Agent-Owner Relationship)

  • 육근효
    • 수산경영론집
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    • 제18권1호
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    • pp.37-57
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    • 1987
  • This article discussed the characteristics of several Pareto-optimal incentive contracts between owner and labor, more specifically, four situations: reporting output jointly observable by labor ana owner; reporting both output and effort; incorporating other endogenous elements (like capital) that affect the production process and Pareto-optimal fee schedules; and ascertaining the effects of private pre-decision information private- decision information, and per-contact informational asymmetries. Also presented were several extensions of the basic contractual model, and the different components of agency costs associated with labor-owner contractual relations. In a single-period model, the agency problem exists because the uncertainty prevents the owner from using the cash flow to determine unambiguously the labor's action. Holmstrom(1979) suggests that "when the same situation repeats itself over time, the effects of uncertainty tend to be reduced and dystunctional behavior is more accurately revealed, thus alleviating the problem of moral hazard. " Under these conditions, if the labor selects the first-best level of effect in each period, the cash flow will be independent and identically distributed over time. As the number of periods increases, the variance of the labows average output, if he selects the first-best level of effort in each period, gets smaller. Note that for this diversification effect to occur, it is necessary that the owner evaluate the labor's effort over the entire history of his employment, rather than evaluate each period's performance separately. Radner(1980) and Rubinstein and Yaari(1980) consider the extreme case in which there are an infinite number of observations. They show that the owner can eventually detect and systematic shirking on the part of the labor by comparing the labor's average output with what would be expected if the labor had been selecting the first-best level of effort in each period. In a dynamic model with incentive problems we have demonstrated that the labor's second-period compensation will depend on his first-period performance. This allows the owner to diversify away some of the uncertainty surrounding the labor's actions. In addition, this allows the owner to smooth the labor's income over time by spreading the risk of the first-period outcome over both periods. At least some unexplored avenves in this area invite future accounting research: situations where owner has different incompatible objectives and negotiates a contract with labor; circumstances in which owner deals with multiple objectives and negotiates contracts with several labors simultaneously; the value of costly accounting information systems and communication in establishing, Pareto-optimal incentive contracts, and the value and effects of inside information, Thorough theoretical or empirical research on each of these topics not only would increase our knowledge about the role and significance of accounting information but could also provide explanations of the inherent differences among various organizations and in their economic behavior. behavior.

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화약류 및 중금속의 인체위해성평가 및 생태독성에 기반한 토양허용농도도출에 관한 연구 (Study on Determination of Permissible Soil Concentrations for Explosives and Heavy Metals)

  • 김문경;정재웅;남경필;정슬기
    • 한국지하수토양환경학회지:지하수토양환경
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    • 제20권6호
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    • pp.19-27
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    • 2015
  • Permissible soil concentrations for explosives (i.e., TNT and RDX) and heavy metals (i.e., Cu, Zn, Pb, and As) heve been derived from human risk and ecotoxicity, respectively. For TNT and RDX, human risk based-permissible soil concentrations were determined as 460 mg-TNT/kg-soil and 260 mg-RDX/kg-soil. Ecotoxicity based-permissible soil concentrations for Cu and Zn were determined from species sensitivity distribution (SSD) and uncertainty factor of 1 to 5, yielding 18.0-40.0 mg-Cu/kg-soil and 46.0-100 mg-Zn/kg-soil. For Pb and As, ecotoxicity data were not enough to establish SSD so that a deterministic method was used, generating 13.8-30.8 mg-Pb/kg-soil and 2.10-4.60 mg-As/kg-soil. It is worth noting that the methodology used to derive permissible concentrations in soil can differ depending on ecotoxicity data availability and socio-economic situations, which results in different permissible concentrations. The permissible concentrations presented in this study have been derived from conservative assumptions for exposure parameters, and thus should be considered as soil standards. In the light of remediation and pollution management of a site of interest, the site-specific and receptor-specific permissible soil concentrations should be derived considering potential receptors, current and future land use, background concentrations, and socio-economic consultation.

해상풍력발전 단지배치에 따른 민감도 분석에 관한 연구 (A Study on the Sensitivity Analysis of Offshore wind farm Design)

  • 김도형;장은영;경남호;김홍우;김성완;김창석
    • 한국태양에너지학회 논문집
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    • 제31권3호
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    • pp.29-35
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    • 2011
  • This study draws economic expense factors according to the influence of generation resulted from slipstream and the arrangement of the complex when arranging and designing the complex for offshore windpower development as a model of 50MW offshore wind farm and conducts economics analysis. According to the result of the analysis, O (Optimize) arrangement was the one that has the highest generation for having the best windpower resources in terms of design and being least affected by slipstream; however, the arrangement requires expensive submarine cables and high installation cost. Therefore, according to the analysis of economics, it was thought that 50MW complex should have less economics as BC ratio 0.95 than the series arrangement of main wind direction and I+80 series arrangement would be rather more economical. This economics evaluation provides comparison according to the arrangement of the development complex considering the uncertainty of the electricity price and gross construction cost. And it is expected that the result of economics evaluation would greatly differ by installation capacity, and the reason is that the cost of electric infrastructure takes up a higher portion than the gross construction cost of the development complex. The only way to compensate this part is to make the windpower development complex larger. It seems that it will be necessary to enhance spot applicability to evaluate economics afterwards and pay consistent attention to and conduct follow-up research on the economics evaluation of the complex construction.

확률변동성 모형을 적용한 해운산업의 벙커가격과 환율 리스크 추정 (Application to the Stochastic Modelling of Risk Measurement in Bunker Price and Foreign Exchange Rate on the Maritime Industry)

  • 김현석
    • 한국항만경제학회지
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    • 제34권1호
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    • pp.99-110
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    • 2018
  • 본 연구는 해운기업의 주요 비용요인 벙커 가격과 환율의 불확실성으로 인한 재무적 리스크를 수치화하는 방법론을 2010년 1월 1일부터 2018년 1월 31일까지의 일별자료를 대상으로 적용한다. 기하브라운 운동 (Geometric Brownian Motion 이하 GBM)과 이를 확장한 조건부 이분산성(heteroskedasticity) 및 점프 확산 프로세스(jump diffusion process)에 의존하는 모형으로부터 추정한 현금 흐름 리스크 추정치는 다음 세 가지 학술적 기여로 요약할 수 있다. 첫째, 운임수익률과 같은 단일 변수에 의존한 리스크 분석을 벙커가격과 환율 수익률 변동성과 같이 복합요인으로부터 발생하는 영향으로 분석을 확장하였다. 둘째, 개별기업 수준에서 벙커가격과 환율 리크스 관리의 필요성을 민감도 분석을 통해 현금흐름수준으로 제시하였다. 마지막으로 분석결과가 제시하는 리스크 규모를 근거로 해운기업은 리스크 관리를 위한 수단으로 무엇이 적절한가를 고민해야 할 필요성이 있음을 제기한다.

한북직물업체의 생산 및 유통구조에 관한 연구 (A Study on the Economic Performance of the Textile Industry for Korean traditional Clothes)

  • 조효숙
    • 복식
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    • 제34권
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    • pp.135-150
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    • 1997
  • The purpose of this study was to inves-tigate the economic performance of the textile industry for the Korean traditional clothes. The content of this paper had two pars; The first part was for the macroeconomic aspects such as location production employments and the produc-tion facilities of the textile industries. The second part was for the microeconomic aspects such as business type branding method fabric type R&D efforts sourc-ing and the distributional channel The major results were as follows: 1.) Most textile firms for the korean traditional clothes were located in Gongju for man-made fibers and in Jinju for silk fabrics. 2) The size of the textile industry in terms of the number of business produc-tion amount the number of employee de-creased during 1994 and 1995 due to the decreasing demand. 3) Over the half of the textile firms produced raw fabric products while only 20% of them were involved in additional dyeing and /or printing finish which re-sulted in low value added production 4) The R&D effort of the textile indus-try for the Korean traditional clothes was very low due to the market uncertainty lack of technological knowledge and most of all small size of the firms 5) Most raw materials for the textile in -dustry were imported with high(25%) tariff rates resulting in price increase and thus low competitiveness in the market. 6) The textile producers sole about the 70% of their products to the wholesalers while selling the rest to the retailers di-rectly. This showed the dual structure of the distribution channel in the textile products. These results suggested some implica-tions for the firms the policy makers and the researchers. The firms should develop new and improved products to increase and create consumer demand by intensive R&D efforts. The government policy ma-kers should give financial supports the firms with R&D investment and legal help such as lowing tariff rate for the raw ma-terials. The researchers from the academy could help the textile industry with the advanced technological knowledge and up-date information for the consumer fashion demand.

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면역알고리즘 기반의 MECs (에너지 허브) 시스템 (An Immune Algorithm based Multiple Energy Carriers System)

  • 손병락;강유경;이현
    • 한국태양에너지학회 논문집
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    • 제34권4호
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    • pp.23-29
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    • 2014
  • Recently, in power system studies, Multiple Energy Carriers (MECs) such as Energy Hub has been broadly utilized in power system planners and operators. Particularly, Energy Hub performs one of the most important role as the intermediate in implementing the MECs. However, it still needs to be put under examination in both modeling and operating concerns. For instance, a probabilistic optimization model is treated by a robust global optimization technique such as multi-agent genetic algorithm (MAGA) which can support the online economic dispatch of MECs. MAGA also reduces the inevitable uncertainty caused by the integration of selected input energy carriers. However, MAGA only considers current state of the integration of selected input energy carriers in conjunctive with the condition of smart grid environments for decision making in Energy Hub. Thus, in this paper, we propose an immune algorithm based Multiple Energy Carriers System which can adopt the learning process in order to make a self decision making in Energy Hub. In particular, the proposed immune algorithm considers the previous state, the current state, and the future state of the selected input energy carriers in order to predict the next decision making of Energy Hub based on the probabilistic optimization model. The below figure shows the proposed immune algorithm based Multiple Energy Carriers System. Finally, we will compare the online economic dispatch of MECs of two algorithms such as MAGA and immune algorithm based MECs by using Real Time Digital Simulator (RTDS).

CGE 모형을 이용한 다목적댐 운영의 경제파급효과분석: 용수공급기능을 중심으로

  • 정기호;김재현
    • 자원ㆍ환경경제연구
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    • 제21권1호
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    • pp.129-156
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    • 2012
  • 본 연구는 다목적댐 운영을 통한 안정적인 수자원 공급이 국가경제에 기여하는 경제적 파급효과를 분석한다. 분석을 위해 17개 주요 다목적댐이 고려되며, 다목적댐에서 공급되는 수자원을 여름과 겨울로 구분하여 별도의 생산요소로 포함하는 연산가능 일반균형모형(computable general equilibrium model: CGE)을 2007년을 기준연도로 하여 구축한다. 분석 내용은 다목적댐 용수 공급의 양적 측면과 안정적 용수 공급 측면을 구분하여, 전자에 대해서는 수자원 수요 충족에 따른 경제적 파급효과를 분석하고, 후자에 대해서는 수자원 공급의 불확실성 감소에 따른 리스크 프리미엄을 추정한다. 분석 결과, 다목적댐이 운영되지 않을 경우에 수자원을 집약적으로 투입하는 농림수산 및 수도 산업의 생산과 농림수산 산출물이 중간재로 많이 사용되는 음식료 산업의 생산이 크게 감소하는 것으로 나타났으며, 철강과 전기전자 등의 산업들은 대체로 생산이 증가하는 것으로 나타났다. GNP는 벤치마크 해 대비 0.22~0.68% 감소하는 것으로 분석되었다. 한편 리스크 프리미엄은 상대적 위험회피 척도 값을 0.5~3.0의 범위에서 고려할 때 약 40억 원~240억 원의 범위를 갖는 것으로 나타났다.

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제품구조와 생산기술간의 적합성에 관한 실증적 연구 - 우리나라 전기 . 전자산업을 중심으로 - (An Empirical Study on the Fitness between Manufacturing Technology Strategy and product Structure - Based on Korean Electric and Electronic Industry -)

  • 이경환;임재화
    • 기술경영경제학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 기술경영경제학회 1992년도 제2회 학술발표회
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    • pp.119-155
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    • 1992
  • Traditionally, the target of manufaturing technology strategy was derived in a efficiency, cost and productivity. So most activities of the manufacturing brought focus into the engineering technology, equipments and research and improvement of new products to maximize the efficiency. As a resell of this legacy, most of the activities of manufacturing has been executed on the method of quality improvement, development of new equipment to incense the efficiency and the research of materials for new products. Those trends, however overlook the operation management activities which is very important as a assets in competitive strategy. But the market enviornment of morden manufacturing companies faced to the uncertainty and complexity. So they need capability of competition which requires new concept of manufacturing technology strategy to grasp the competitive advantages. In this point of view, this paper deal with the empirical study in korean manufacturing technology strategy of the electic and electronic industry. For the empirical study, check list was made to survey the 98 manufacturing companies. The analysis procedures are as below. First, identify the manufacturing technology group an product structure group by each variable. Second manufacturing technology variables are segmented into product technology and vertical integration, suborder and infrastructure, to analyse the decision making pattern which derive the strategy groups. Third, by the fitness analysis between product structure group and manufacturing technology group, the economic results of a growth rate of sale and a profit rate of sale are tested. In this approach, fitness analysis between product structure group and manufacturing technology group show, as a whole, the no significant values in economic results of the company. But investigating the statistical values shows the trend that econmic result of the complany is somewhat higher when the degree of fitness of manufacturing technology strategy by product structure has high value. Concluding the remarks, the competitive advantages of company lies not in the efficiency of manufacturing systems but in the way of the structure and decision making pattern of the manufacturing system. And the cons i stoney between strategy target and manufacturing technology strategy, and the consistency of manufacturing technology strategy and product structure are the term of competitive advantages.

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