• The Plant Pathology Journal
• /
• 제40권3호
• /
• pp.290-298
• /
• 2024

K-Maryblyt has been developed for the effective control of secondary fire blight infections on blossoms and the elimination of primary inoculum sources from cankers and newly emerged shoots early in the season for both apple and pear trees. This model facilitates the precise determination of the blossom infection timing and identification of primary inoculum sources, akin to Maryblyt, predicting flower infections and the appearance of symptoms on various plant parts, including cankers, blossoms, and shoots. Nevertheless, K-Maryblyt has undergone significant improvements: Integration of Phenology Models for both apple and pear trees, Adoption of observed or predicted hourly temperatures for Epiphytic Infection Potential (EIP) calculation, incorporation of adjusted equations resulting in reduced mean error with 10.08 degree-hours (DH) for apple and 9.28 DH for pear, introduction of a relative humidity variable for pear EIP calculation, and adaptation of modified degree-day calculation methods for expected symptoms. Since the transition to a model-based control policy in 2022, the system has disseminated 158,440 messages related to blossom control and symptom prediction to farmers and professional managers in its inaugural year. Furthermore, the system has been refined to include control messages that account for the mechanism of action of pesticides distributed to farmers in specific counties, considering flower opening conditions and weather suitability for spraying. Operating as a pivotal module within the Fire Blight Forecasting Information System (FBcastS), K-Maryblyt plays a crucial role in providing essential fire blight information to farmers, professional managers, and policymakers.

• 식물병연구
• /
• 제7권3호
• /
• pp.150-154
• /
• 2001

세균성벼알마름병의 발생 예측 모델을 만들기 위하여 출수기의 기상 환경과 병 발생과의 관계를 자료분석(1992~2000)과 온실 및 포장시험을 통해 조사하였다. 세균성벼알마름병의 발생이 많은 해는 '94, '95, '98, 2000년이었고, 중만생종 출수기인 8월 상.중순에 고온이 지속되면서 연속강우가 많았다. 반면 병 발생이 적었던 '93년은 강우량과 강우일수는 많았으나 저온이었고, '97년에는 온도는 높았으나 강우가 적은 경향이었다. 출수기에 접종 후 습실처리 하였을 때(24시간 이상) $10^2$cfu/ml에서부터 발병하기 시작하여 접종농도가 높을수록 발병도가 높아져 $10^{8}$ cfu/ml에서는 86.1%의 발병도를 보였다. 습실처리를 하지 않은 경우에는 $10^{8}$ cfu/ml에서만 12.5% 발병하였다. 또한 발병도가 증가함에 따라 천립중과 등숙률이 현저히 감소하였다.

• The Plant Pathology Journal
• /
• 제26권1호
• /
• pp.17-24
• /
• 2010

A logistic model for describing combined effects of both temperature and wetness period on appressorium formation was developed using laboratory data on percent appressorium formation of Colletotrichum acutatum. In addition, the possible use of the logistic model for forecasting infection risks was also evaluated as compared with a first-order linear model. A simplified equilibrium model for enzymatic reactions was applied to obtain a temperature function for asymptote parameter (A) of logistic model. For the position (B) and the rate (k) parameters, a reciprocal model was used to calculate the respective temperature functions. The nonlinear logistic model described successfully the response of appressorium formation to the combined effects of temperature and wetness period. Especially the temperature function for asymptote parameter A reflected the response of upper limit of appressorium formation to temperature, which showed the typical temperature response of enzymatic reactions in the cells. By having both temperature and wetness period as independent variables, the nonlinear logistic model can be used to determine the length of wetness periods required for certain levels of appressorium formation under different temperature conditions. The infection model derived from the nonlinear logistic model can be used to calculate infection risks using hourly temperature and wetness period data monitored by automated weather stations in the fields. Compared with the nonlinear infection model, the linear infection model always predicted a shorter wetness period for appressorium formation, and resulted in significantly under- and over-estimation of response at low and high temperatures, respectively.

• 한국식물병리학회지
• /
• 제3권3호
• /
• pp.210-216
• /
• 1987

미기상 상태에 의하여 벼 도열병을 예찰하기 위한 전산화 예찰모델을 개발하여 그 정확도를 전산모델을 수록한 현지위치형 소형 전산기로서 1984년과 1985년에 걸쳐 포장에서 시험하였다. 건전지 작동형 소형 전산기는 벼 군락내 온도, 습도, 잎이 젖어있는 시간을 계속적으로 측정하여 그 상태를 도열병 발생가능성과 관련하여 평가해서 매일의 병발생가능성 수치(BUS)로 표현한다. 매일의 BUS의 누적치(CBUS)와 두 이병성 품종, M-201과 Brazos에서의 도열병 진전정도와는 밀접한 상관이 있었다. 발병엽율의 logit 치를 CBUS로 회귀하였을 때 평균 결정계수$(R^2)$는 품종과 실험한 해에 따라 $71\%\~91\%$였으며 이것은 시간을 독립변수로 사용하였을 때의 결정계수$61\%\~79\%$에 비하여 현저히 높았다. 결정계수는 M-201에 비하여 생육후기에 포장저항성을 보인 Brazos에서 더 낮았다. 이상의 결과, 현예찰 모델은 실제로 사용가능성이 있지만 앞으로 기주의 저항성이나 병원균 집단의 병원성과 관련한 변수들을 기상환경의 변수와 함께 통합함에 의하여 보다 정확한 예찰모델로 개발할 수 있으리라 생각한다.

• Genomics & Informatics
• /
• 제21권4호
• /
• pp.50.1-50.9
• /
• 2023

Vaccine development is one of the key efforts to control the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, it has become apparent that the immunity acquired through vaccination is not permanent, known as the waning effect. Therefore, monitoring the proportion of the population with immunity is essential to improve the forecasting of future waves of the pandemic. Despite this, the impact of the waning effect on forecasting accuracies has not been extensively studied. We proposed a method for the estimation of the effective immunity (EI) rate which represents the waning effect by integrating the second and booster doses of COVID-19 vaccines. The EI rate, with different periods to the onset of the waning effect, was incorporated into three statistical models and two machine learning models. Stringency Index, omicron variant BA.5 rate (BA.5 rate), booster shot rate (BSR), and the EI rate were used as covariates and the best covariate combination was selected using prediction error. Among the prediction results, Generalized Additive Model showed the best improvement (decreasing 86% test error) with the EI rate. Furthermore, we confirmed that South Korea's decision to recommend booster shots after 90 days is reasonable since the waning effect onsets 90 days after the last dose of vaccine which improves the prediction of confirmed cases and deaths. Substituting BSR with EI rate in statistical models not only results in better predictions but also makes it possible to forecast a potential wave and help the local community react proactively to a rapid increase in confirmed cases.

• 한국응용곤충학회지
• /
• 제25권4호
• /
• pp.221-228
• /
• 1986

사과 점무늬낙엽병(斑點落葉病)의 초발(初發)과 초발후의 병진전을 예찰하기 위하여 기상요인중에서 적산온도(積算)와 강우빈도를 사용하여 예찰할 수 있는 경험적 모델이 3년간의 포장시험으로 작성되었다. 사과의 생육기간중 4월 20일부터 7월말까지 기상요인을 측정, 분석하었고 이들 기상요인들이 모델작성의 변량(變量)으로써 사용되었다. 하루의 평균온도에서 $10^{\circ}C$를 뺀 온도가 적산되어(CDP) 대기온도와 점무늬낙엽병초발과의 관계를 알기위한 한 모수(母數)로서 사용되었다. 병의 초발에 필요한 CDP는 약 160으로서 이 수치는 초발에 필요한 CDP의 하한(下限)온도로 사용되었다. 160 CDP가 도달된 후에는 강우 빈도가 초발을 결정하는 요인이었으며 적어도 4번의 강우가 초발에 필요하였다. 초발후의 병진전은 대체로 강우 빈도가 누적되는 모양과 유사하였다. 병진전의 일반 미분(微分)방정식모델 dx/dt=xr(1-x)에서 산출된 3개년의 병진전 직선의 명백한 감염속도(r)는 강우빈도의 누적율(Rc)과 1차(직선)기능으로서 직선방정식 r=1.06Rc-0.11($R^2=0.993$)에서 직접 추정이 가능하였다. 일정시간(t)후의 발병정도(x)는 미분방정식 모델에서 유도된 지수(指數)방정식 $[x/(1-x)]=[x_0/(1-x)]e^{(b_0+b_1R_c)t}$에서 예측될 수 있는데 이때의 $x_0$는 초발시발병정도 $b_0$와 $b_1$은 강우빈도 누적률 Rc의 모수(母數)이다. Alternaria mali 분생포자의 공기증밀도의 매일의 누적치와 병진전과는 통계상 유의적인 1차관계(linear relationship)가 있었는데 공기중 분생포자 밀도의 누적치를 독립변량으로 사용하여 병진전을 예측하였을때 예측의 정확도는 $R^2=0.3328$로서 비교적 낮았다.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• 제9권6호
• /
• pp.1-9
• /
• 2022

The study aims to determine the factors and their influence on the income from using public agricultural land of households. Public agricultural land is agricultural land, including land for growing annual crops, perennial crops, and land for aquaculture, leased by commune-level People's Committees with a lease term of not more than 5 years. Secondary data were collected for the 2017-2021 period at state agencies. Primary data were collected from a survey of 150 households renting public agricultural land. The regression model assumed that there were 28 factors belonging to 7 groups. The test results show that 25 factors affect income, and 03 factors do not. The group of COVID-19 pandemic factors has the strongest impact, followed by the groups of agricultural product market factors, land factors, capital factors, production cost factors, labor factors, and climatic factors. The impact rate of COVID-19 pandemic factors is the largest (23.00%); The impact rate of climatic factors is the smallest (6.04%). Proposals to increase income include good implementation of disease prevention and control; increasing the land lease term; accurately forecasting the supply and demand of the agricultural market; raising the level of the household head; ensuring sufficient production capital, and adapting to the climate.

• 식품저장과 가공산업
• /
• 제3권1호
• /
• pp.42-46
• /
• 2004

Quality of fresh-cut tomato slices was compared during cold storage under various modified atmosphere packaging conditions. Chilling injury of slices in containers sealed with Film A was higher than with Film B; these films had oxygen transmission rates of 87.4 and 60.0 ml h-1 m-2 nun-1 at $5^{\circ}C$ and $99\%$ RH, respectively. While slices in containers with an initial atmospheric composition of air, $4\%$ CO2 + 1 or $20\%\;O_2, \;8\%\;CO_2+1$ or $20\%\;O_2$, or $12\%\; CO_2+\;20\%\;O_2$ showed fungal growth, slices in containers with $12\%\;CO_2 +\;1\%\;O_2$ did not. Low ethylene in containers enhanced chilling injury. Modified atmosphere packaging provided good quality tomato slices with a shelf-life of 2 weeks or more at $5^{\circ}C$. Experiments were conducted to compare changes in quality of slices of red tomato (Lycopersicon esculentum Mill. 'Sunbeam') fruit from plants grown using black polyethylene or hairy vetch mulches under various foliar disease management systems including: no fungicide applications (NF), a disease forecasting model (Tom-Cast), and weekly fungicide applications (WF), during storage at $5^{\circ}C$ under a modified atmosphere. Slices were analyzed for firmness, soluble solids content (SCC), titratable acidity (TA), pH, electrolyte leakage, fungi, yeasts, and chilling injury. With both NF and Tom-Cast fungicide treatments, slices from tomato fruit grown with hairy vetch (Vicia villosa Roth) mulch were firmer than those from tomato fruit grown with black polyethylene mulch after 12 days storage. Ethylene Production of slices from fruit grown using hairy vetch mulch under Tom-Cast was about 1.5- and 5-fold higher than that of slices from WF and NF fungicide treatments after 12 days, respectively. The percentage of water-soaked areas (chilling injury) for slices from tomato fruit grown.

• 한국식품저장유통학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국식품저장유통학회 2004년도 총회및 심포지움
• /
• pp.67-72
• /
• 2004

Quality of fresh-cut tomato slices was compared during cold storage under various modified atmosphere packaging conditions. Chilling injury of slices in containers sealed with Film A was higher than with Film B; these films had oxygen transmission rates of 87.4 and 60.0 ml $h^{-1}\;m^{-2}\;atm^{-1}$ at $5^{\circ}C\;and\;99\%$ RH, respectively. While slices in containers with an initial atmospheric composition of air, $4\%\;CO_2+1\;or\;20\%\;O_2,\;8\%\;CO_2+1\;or\;20\%\;O_2,\;or\;12\%\;CO_2+20\%\;O_2$ showed fungal growth, slices in containers with $12\%\;CO_2+1\%\;O_2$ did not. Low ethylene in containers enhanced chilling injury. Modified atmosphere packaging provided good quality tomato slices with a shelf-life of 2 weeks or more at $5^{\circ}C$. Experiments were conducted to compare changes in quality of slices of red tomato (Lycopersicon esculentum Mill. 'Sunbeam') fruit from plants grown using black polyethylene or hairy vetch mulches under various foliar disease management systems including: no fungicide applications (NF), a disease forecasting model (Tom-Cast), and weekly fungicide applications (WF), during storage at $5^{\circ}C$ under a modified atmosphere. Slices were analyzed for firmness, soluble solids content (SSC), titratable acidity (TA), pH, electrolyte leakage, fungi, yeasts, and chilling injury. With both NF and Tom-Cast fungicide treatments, slices from tomato fruit grown with hairy vetch (Vicia villosa Roth) mulch were firmer than those from tomato fruit grown with black polyethylene mulch after 12 days storage. Ethylene production of slices from fruit grown using hairy vetch mulch under Tom-Cast was about 1.5- and 5-fold higher than that of slices from WF and NF fungicide treatments after 12 days, respectively. The percentage of water-soaked areas (chilling injury) for slices from tomato fruit grown using black polyethylene mulch under NF was over 7-fold that of slices from tomato fruit grown using hairy vetch under Tom-Cast. When stored at $20^{\circ}C$, slices from light-red tomato fruit grown with black polyethylene or hairy vetch mulches both showed a rapid increase in electrolyte leakage beginning 6 hours after slicing. However, slices from tomato fruit grown using the hairy vetch mulch tended to have lower electrolyte leakage than those grown with black polyethylene mulch. These results suggest that tomato fruit from plants grown using hairy vetch mulch may be more suitable for fresh-cut slices than those grown using black polyethylene mulch. Also, use of the disease forecasting model Tom-Cast, which can result in lower fungicide application than is currently used commercially, resulted in high quality fruit for fresh-cut processing. Experiments were conducted to determine if ethylene influences chilling injury, as measured by percentage of slices exhibiting water-soaked areas in fresh-cut tomato slices of 'Mountain Pride' and 'Sunbeam' tomato (Lycopersicon esculentum Mill.). Ethylene concentration in containers without ventilation significantly increased during storage at $5^{\circ}C$, whereas little or no accumulation of ethylene occurred in containers with one or six perforations. Chilling injury was greatest for slices in containers with six perforations, compared to slices in containers with one perforation, and was over 13-fold greater than that of slices in control containers with no perforations. An experiment was also performed to investigate the effectiveness of including an ethylene absorbent pad in containers on subsequent ethylene accumulation and chilling injury. While ethylene in the no-pad controls increased continually during storage of both 'Mountain Pride' and 'Sunbeam' tomatoes at $5^{\circ}C$ under modified atmosphere conditions, no increase in accumulation of ethylene was observed in containers containing ethylene absorbent pads throughout storage. The ethylene absorbent pad treatment resulted in a significantly higher percentage of chilling injury compared with the no-pad control. In studies aimed at inhibiting ethylene production using AVG during storage of slices, the concentration of ethylene in control containers (no AVG) remained at elevated levels throughout storage, compared to containers with slices treated with AVG. Chilling injury in slices treated with AVG was 5-fold greater than that of controls. Further, we tested the effect of ethylene pretreatment of slices on subsequent slice shelf-life and quality. In slices treated with ethylene (0, 0.1, 1, or $10\;{mu}L\;L^{-1}$) immediately after slicing, ethylene production in non-treated controls was greater than that of all other ethylene pre-treatments. However, pretreatment of slices 3 days after slicing resulted in a different pattern of ethylene production during storage. Ihe rate of ethylene production by slices treated with 1 L $L^{-1}$ ethylene 3 days after slicing was greater during storage than any of the other ethylene treatments. With slices pre-treated with ethylene, both immediately and 3 days after slicing, the rate of ethylene production tended to show an negative correlation with chilling injury. Chemical name used: 1-aminoethoxyvinylglycine (AVG).

• 식물병연구
• /
• 제18권4호
• /
• pp.361-369
• /
• 2012

고추 풋마름병 예찰을 위한 개체군 모형을 개발하였다. 이 모델은 포장에서 고추 시들음을 일으키는 풋마름병원균의 월동 후 1차 감염 시기를 예측할 수 있는 모델이다. 이 모델은 감염환 중 병원균의 밀도와 기주에서의 병원성에 관여하는 요인이 발병의 주요소라 가정하여 만든 것이다. 병원균 증식은 재배 지역 토양 내부와 기주뿌리 내부에서 모의하였다. 뿌리에서 풋마름병 발병에 영향을 주는 주된 환경요소는 온도 및 감염 초기의 병원균 밀도로 가정하였고, 이 두 요소의 액체 배양액에서 증식실험을 통해 정량화 하였다. 또한 고추묘에서 온도에 따라 발병이 얼마나 달라지는 정도를 실험실 실험을 통해 접종원의 감염 수준을 정량화하여 감염을 모의하는 발병모형을 만들었다. 토양에 서식하는 병원균은 400 cells/g이상에서 기주 뿌리에 성공적으로 침입하고 뿌리내에서 온도에 따라 증식하다가 $10^9$ cells/g 이상이면 최소 고사율에 도달하므로, 이 시기를 풋마름병이 최초 감염(1차 감염)되는 초발일로 추정하였다. 2010년과 11년 전국 기상청 종관관측 자료를 통해 풋마름병을 예측한 결과 2011년에 초발일은 대부분의 지역에서 7월 중순과 하순이었는데 이는 2010년에 비해 10-15일 빠른 것이었다. 또한 경기도 지역내에서 종관관측 자료와 실제 논과 과수원 포장 관측 기상 자료로 구동된 모델 초발일을 비교한 결과 포장 기상 자료의 초발일이 1-3일 빠르게 나타났다.