• Title/Summary/Keyword: demand estimation

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Utilizing Geographic Information System for Analyzing Land Use Suitability in a Urban Area - A Case Study of Kumi City - (도시지역의 토지이용 적지분석을 위한 지리정보시스템의 이용 - 구미시를 중심으로 -)

  • Lee, Jin-Duk;Lee, Hyun-Hwa;Kim, Sung-Gil
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.4 no.4
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    • pp.29-38
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    • 2001
  • This study addresses the topic of suitability analysis for helping with land use planning, which is one of important decision-making in urban planning, utilizing geographic information system. Covering the Kumi City before integrating with neighbor county, the site suitabilities for land uses, which are categorized into residential, commercial, industrial and green, were analyzed using the overlay method based upon the database constructed for this study. In the process, assessment criteria which include environmental factors and relative weights were determined and also the land use/cover map and NDVI map which were generated through satellite image processing were included in the database. The suitability maps by four function spaces were derived according to the grade and compared with the present land use state and the land use concept map of urban master plan. For more accurate analysis, practical developing plan, land price data, soil data should be included. Also if the demand estimation data by each land use had been added, the reliability of location allocation could have been raised.

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A Study on the Inventory Cost Estimation Criteria Considering Supply Chain Characteristics of a Electronic Product Manufacturer (전자제품 제조사 관점에서의 공급사슬 특성을 고려한 재고비용 산정 기준의 제시)

  • Nam, Jung-Hoon;Hwang, Seung-June
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.39 no.4
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    • pp.15-25
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    • 2016
  • SCM activities in a company are considered as total innovation through synchronizing supply and demand while maintaining appropriate inventory level and reducing the business operating costs. Until now, even several researches are carried out on the SCM performance of the companies which have introduced and been operating SCM, the research on the cost analysis for the inventory which occurs frequently on supply chain is still insufficient. Especially, for the electronics industry in which the product depreciation is sharp caused by the short product life cycle and the complexity of distribution channels, even the inventory related costs are a major factor in business management, since the current estimated criteria of inventory costs are limited to the interest and maintenance management costs, the criteria do not reflect the total influence of the product depreciation and lost opportunity cost which are related to the business management. Furthermore, even though the rapid price drops of the distributor inventory caused by the frequent new model launch can be covered by the product manufacturers, the scale of total costs related to the inventory has not been conceived because the price compensation is traditionally considered as a market costs. In this research, we analyzed the inventory characteristics of electronics industry in which the price depreciation happens frequently, newly defining the estimated criteria of the product total inventory cost which includes price depreciation from the product manufacturers' view. Finally we focus on the case study of a representative electronics company and verify the scale of the influence on management performance.

An Empirical Analysis on the Effects of Parallel Reimportation: The Case of Korean Automobile Market (재병행수입의 경제적 효과 분석: 자동차산업을 중심으로)

  • Chang, Woo Hyun
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.36 no.4
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    • pp.71-102
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    • 2014
  • This paper examines the possibility of 'parallel reimportation', the reimportation of goods originally produced in the country and exported to another country by profit-pursuing arbitrageurs. The chance of parallel reimportation implies unusually high level of market power of domestic enterprises, and promoting parallel reimportation can be an effective welfare-enhancing, competition-generating policy for the situation. Motivated by the finding, this paper proposes a methodology to measure the welfare effects of parallel reimportation. Specifically, this paper makes use of a structural empirical model to estimate the demand and supply system of Korean automobile market for performing a counterfactual experiment to measure the welfare effects of the parallel reimportation. The results indicates that parallel reimportation can enhance social welfare considerably by increasing consumer surplus and government tax revenue altogether, though it reduces the producer surplus.

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Estimation of Economic Risk Capital of Insurance Company using the Extreme Value Theory (극단치이론을 이용한 보험사 위험자본의 추정)

  • Yeo, Sung-Chil;Chang, Dong-Han;Lee, Byung-Mo
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.291-311
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    • 2007
  • With a series of unexpected huge losses in the financial markets around the world recently, especially in the insurance market with extreme loss cases such as catastrophes, there is an increasing demand for risk management for extreme loss exposures due to high unpredictability of those risks. For extreme risk management, to make a maximum use of the information concerning the tail part of a loss distribution, EVT(Extreme Value Theory) modelling nay be the best to analyze extreme values. The Extreme Value Theory is widely used in practice and, especially in financal markets, EVT modelling is getting popular to analyBe the effects of extreme risks. This study is to review the significance of the Extreme Value Theory in risk management and, focusing on analyzing insurer's risk capital, extreme risk is measured using the real fire loss data and insurer's specific amount of risk capital is figured out to buffer the extreme risk.

Estimation for Daily Mean 10cm Soil Temperature (토양온도(土壤溫度)의 변화예측(變化豫測))

  • Park, Chang-Seo;Jung, Sug-Jae;Hyeon, Geun-Soo
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.289-293
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    • 1993
  • To comply with the increasing demand from the agricultural industry for more accurate short-range weather information, statistical method for forecasting soil temperature was presented. Regression equation was derived to predict daily mean 10cm soil temperature for any day the year. The equation was based upon 10-daily mean 10cm soil temperature(10DM 10ST) for 6 years(1982~1987) at grass in Suweon. The possibility of estimating daily mean 10cm soil temperature was examined.

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Estimation of Decomposition Capacity for Organic Matter in Tidal Flat Sediments at Saemankeum Area (새만금지역 하구갯벌의 유기물 분해능력 평가)

  • Jong-Gu Kim;Sun-Jae You
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.10 no.5
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    • pp.315-321
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    • 2001
  • This study was conducted to estimate the decomposition capacity for organic matter by microbe of tidal flat sediments (Hajae, Dongjin and Mankyung). The decomposition rate constants (K') have been determined by Thomas slope method and compared with the values of each tidal flats. The decomposition rates of organic matter by microbe were initially very slow, but at the end of 12 hours, very sharply increased. The values of decomposition rate constant for Dongjin, Mankyung and Hajae tidal flat sediment were 1.364$day^{-1}$/, 1.080d$day^{-1}$ and 0.735$day^{-1}$, respectively. The decomposition rate constant of Dongjin tidal flat sediment which affected by livestock wastewater was higher than others. The decomposition quantity (mg/g/day) of organic matter by microbe of tidal flat sediments was 0.4mg/g/day for Dongjin, 0.36mg/g/day for Mankyung and 0.36mg/g/day for Hajae. The average of decomposition quantity was 0.37mg/g/day. To calculate purification capacity (kg/ha) of organic matter by microbe, we applied to two assumption ; 1) biological action by microbe is occur within 0.1cm under surface 2) specific gravity of sediment are 2.5g/$\textrm{cm}^2$. The purification capacity of organic matter by microbe of tidal flat sediment was calculated to 9.25kg/ha. The relationships between decomposition rate constant (K') and ignition loss (I. L), chemical oxygen demand by sediment (CO $D_{sed}$), total carbon(TC), silt and clay as index of organic matter were a high positive($R^2$=0.97~1.00).

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The Estimation Methods of Demand for Renewable Energy Workforce (주요 국가의 신재생에너지 분야 인력수요 전망체계)

  • Lee, Youah;Lee, Dongjun;Kim, Minji
    • 한국신재생에너지학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2011.05a
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    • pp.138-138
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    • 2011
  • 신 재생에너지 산업의 확대를 뒷받침하고 산업의 지속적인 성장을 달성하기 위해서는 지속적인 인력의 공급이 무엇보다 중요하다. 뿐만 아니라 신 재생에너지는 기존 에너지원과 다르게 자국 내에서 생산 및 소비가 함께 이루어진다. 따라서 신 재생에너지의 확대는 국가의 일자리 창출과 직접적으로 연관된다. 하지만 지금까지 국내에서는 신재생에너지 인력수요 전망을 위한 방법론 연구가 충분히 이루어 지고 있지 않은 실정이다. 이에 본 연구에서는 인력수요 전망을 위한 연구를 실시한 호주와 미국 사례를 고찰하여, 국내 신 재생에너지 인력수요 전망을 위한 고려요인 및 전망 방법론 연구를 실시하였다. 연구결과 미국은 기존화석에너지와의 인력수요 차이를 고찰하는데 초점을 맞추어 분석을 실시하였다. 또한 호주는 시나리오 기법을 통하여 미래 신재생에너지 보급상황에 따라 달라 질 수 있는 인력의 수요를 예측 하였다. 두 국가의 경우 신 재생에너지 부문의 인력수요가 급격하게 증가할 것으로 보고 있다. 호주의 경우 2008년 기준으로 10천명이던 신 재생에너지 인력수요가 2020년 24천명~30천명으로 증가할 것으로 예상(연평균 16.7% 증가)하고 있다. 미국에서는 2007년 500천명의 신 재생에너지 산업 인력이 재직 중이며, 신 재생에너지 확대와 함께 2030년에는 7,300천명의 인력수요가 있을 것으로 분석하고 있다. 신재생에너지 인력수요에 대한 연구를 실시한 사례를 살펴보면 국가는 목적에 부합하는 기준을 바탕으로 연구를 수행하여 있음을 알 수 있다. 따라서 우리나라도 향후 신재생에너지 인력 증가에 대비하여 관련 인력양성 정책을 올바르게 세우기 위해서는 관련 연구가 뒷받침 되어야 할 것으로 사료된다. 해외 사례 고찰 내용을 바탕으로 향후 국내 신 재생에너지 인력 수요 예측 시 고려해야 할 요인들을 다음과 같이 정리할 수 있다. 먼저 인력수요의 예측을 위해서는 현실적인 신 재생에너지 성장 시나리오의 설정이 요구된다. 미국의 사례와 같이 신 재생에너지와 재생에너지의 인력수요 차이를 비교하는 것도 신 재생에너지 인력수요를 정량화 하는데 큰 도움이 될 수 있다. 또한 인력의 범위를 직종별, 학력별로 구체화 하려는 노력이 필요할 것이다. 마지막으로 신재생 인력수요 전망을 바탕으로 효과적인 인력양성 프로그램을 구체화 해야 할 것이다.

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A Methodology for Expanding Sample OD Based on Probe Vehicle (프로브 차량 기반 표본 OD의 전수화 기법)

  • Baek, Seung-Kirl;Jeong, So-Young;Kim, Hyun-Myung;Choi, Kee-Choo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.135-145
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    • 2008
  • As a fundamental input to the travel demand forecasting, OD has been always a concern in obtaining the accurate link traffic volume. Numerous methods were applied thus far without a complete success. Some existing OD estimation techniques generally extract regular samples and expand those sample into population. These methods, however, leaves some to be desired in terms of accuracy. To complement such problems, research on estimating OD using additional information such as link traffic volume as well as sample link use rate have been accomplished. In this paper, a new approach for estimating static origin-destination (OD) using probe vehicle has been proposed. More specifically, this paper tried to search an effective sample rate which varies over time and space. In a sample test network study, the traffic volume error rate of each link was set as objective function in solving the problem. As a key result the MAE (mean absolute error) between expanded OD and actual OD was identified as about 5.28%. The developed methodology could be applied with similar cases. Some limitations and future research agenda have also been discussed.

ALE Finite Element Analysis of the WIG Craft under the Water Impact Loads (ALE 유한 요소법을 적용한 위그선의 착수하중 해석)

  • Lee, Bok-Won;Kim, Chun-Gon;Park, Mi-Young;Jeong, Han-Koo
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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    • v.35 no.12
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    • pp.1082-1088
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    • 2007
  • Demand for high speed sea transportation modes has been increased dramatically last few decades. The WIG(Wing-in-ground effect) is considered as next generation maritime transportation system. In the structural design of high speed marine vessels, an estimation of water impact loads is essential. The dynamic structural responses of the WIG excited by the water impact loads may bring an important contribution to their damage process. The work presented in this paper is focused on the numerical simulation of the water impact on the WIG craft when it lands. It is aimed to study the structural responses of the WIG craft subjected to the water impact loads. The Arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian (ALE) finite element method is used to simulate the water impact of the WIG craft during a landing phase. A full 3D shell element is used to model the WIG craft in carbon composites, and a developed FE model is used to investigate the effect of the water impact loads on the structural responses of the WIG craft. In the analysis, two different landing scenarios are considered and their effects on the structural responses are investigated.

A Study on the Damage of Flame caused by the Vapor Cloud Explosion in LPG Filling Station (LPG충전소에서 증기운폭발에 의한 화염의 피해에 관한 연구)

  • Leem, Sa-Hwan;Huh, Yong-Jeong
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.53-60
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    • 2010
  • LPG(Liquefied Petroleum Gas) vehicles in metropolitan area are being applied to improve air quality and have been proven effective for the reduction of air pollutant. In addition, LPG demand is growing rapidly as an environmentally friendly energy source and its gas station is also increasing every year. Consequently, this study tries to find out the influence of flame caused by the VCE(Vapor Cloud Explosion) in filling station on the adjacent combustibles and people by simulating relevant quantity of TNT. In addition, the damage estimation was conducted by using API regulations. If the scale of the radiation heat is known by calculating the distance of flame influence from the explosion site, the damage from the site can be easily estimated. And the accident damage was estimated by applying the influence on the adjacent structures and people into the PROBIT model. According to the probit analyze, the spot which is 30m away from the flame has 100% of the damage probability by the first-degree burn, 99.2% of the damage probability by the second-degree burn and 93.4% of the death probability by the fire.