• Title/Summary/Keyword: decision-making reliability

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The Explicit Treatment of Model Uncertainties in the Presence of Aleatory and Epistemic Parameter Uncertainties in Risk and Reliability Analysis

  • Ahn, Kwang-ll;Yang, Joon-Eon
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.35 no.1
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    • pp.64-79
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    • 2003
  • In the risk and reliability analysis of complex technological systems, the primary concern of formal uncertainty analysis is to understand why uncertainties arise, and to evaluate how they impact the results of the analysis. In recent times, many of the uncertainty analyses have focused on parameters of the risk and reliability analysis models, whose values are uncertain in an aleatory or an epistemic way. As the field of parametric uncertainty analysis matures, however, more attention is being paid to the explicit treatment of uncertainties that are addressed in the predictive model itself as well as the accuracy of the predictive model. The essential steps for evaluating impacts of these model uncertainties in the presence of parameter uncertainties are to determine rigorously various sources of uncertainties to be addressed in an underlying model itself and in turn model parameters, based on our state-of-knowledge and relevant evidence. Answering clearly the question of how to characterize and treat explicitly the forgoing different sources of uncertainty is particularly important for practical aspects such as risk and reliability optimization of systems as well as more transparent risk information and decision-making under various uncertainties. The main purpose of this paper is to provide practical guidance for quantitatively treating various model uncertainties that would often be encountered in the risk and reliability modeling process of complex technological systems.

The Effects of Subjective Knowledge on Information Search as Related to a Consumer's Life Cycle (의류제품 소비자의 생활주기에 따른 주관적 지식이 정보탐색에 미치는 영향)

  • Hwang, Jeong-In;Park, Jae-Ok
    • Journal of the Korean Home Economics Association
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    • v.48 no.9
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    • pp.41-54
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    • 2010
  • This study attempted to determine how the subjective knowledge related to a consumer's life cycle influences their information search in the decision making process. The data was collected using a total of 349 questionnaires for the final analysis of this study. SPSS 12.0 for windows was used for the data analysis and the detailed analyses included descriptive analysis, factor analysis, reliability tests, one way ANOVA, multiple regression analysis and t-tests. The results of this study showed that there are differences in the subdivisions of subjective knowledge of apparel according to the consumer's life cycle and there is a difference in the types of information searches according to the consumer's subjective knowledge, and the subdivisions of subjective knowledge of the consumers influence their information search. This study showed that although it affected the internal search, the media search, and the store search, it did not influence the personal search in the decision making process.

Croup Load Balancing Algorithm Using State Information Inference in Distributed System (분산시스템에서 상태 정보 추론을 이용한 그룹 부하 균등 알고리즘)

  • 정진섭;이재완
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.6 no.8
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    • pp.1259-1268
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    • 2002
  • One of the major goals suggested in distributed system is to improve the performance of the system through the load balancing of whole system. Load balancing among systems improves the rate of processor utilization and reduces the turnaround time of system. In this paper, we design the rule of decision-making and information interchange based on knowledge based mechanism which makes optimal load balancing by sharing the future load state information inferred from past and present information of each nodes. The result of performance evaluation shows that utilization of processors is balanced, the processing time is improved and reliability and availability of systems are enhanced. The proposed mechanism in this paper can be utilized in the design of load balancing algorithm in distributed operating systems.

Developing a University-Community Partnership Model Integrating Research and Intervention to Improve Food Decisions in Families and Communities

  • Gillespie, Ardyth H.
    • Korean Journal of Community Nutrition
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.120-132
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    • 1998
  • A major goal of the Community Plant Food Project is to develop partnerships between the Cornell Community Nutrition Program and Community-based organizations, including Cooperative Extension. A core principle behind this work is integrating research and intervention. Based on our work in Rochester, New York, we have developed a process and principles for effective partnerships. This new paradigm what we call the University-Community Partnership Model is a team effort that builds on the experiential literature in the fields of communication, leadership, community and team development, sociology, and participatory research and action. We have applied this model both to increase our understanding of Family Food Decision-making and to develop programs for families. In this project, we have used a variety of qualitative methods to understand food decisions from the perspectives of families and community stakeholders, including a group method for analyzing our qualitative interview data. For our survey of families, we developed the Enhanced Response Method, an approach for improving the validity and reliability of community surveys with families and, at the same time, building relationships with families and other stakeholders in the community for integrated and sustainable interventions. Because the knowledge we develop through the partnership and the interventions we seek to implement are products of the process, we are constantly seeking to refine this knowledge and to adapt emerging interventions through an ongoing evaluation process we call the Continuous Improvement Method.

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Utilization of Planned Routes and Dead Reckoning Positions to Improve Situation Awareness at Sea

  • Kim, Joo-Sung;Jeong, Jung Sik;Park, Gyei-Kark
    • International Journal of Fuzzy Logic and Intelligent Systems
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.288-294
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    • 2014
  • Understanding a ship's present position has been one of the most important tasks during a ship's voyage, in both ancient and modern times. Particularly, a ship's dead reckoning (DR) has been used for predicting traffic situations and collision avoidance actions. However, the current system that uses the traditional method of calculating DR employs the received position and speed data only. Therefore, it is not applicable for predicting navigation within the harbor limits, owing to the frequent changes in the ship's course and speed in this region. In this study, planned routes were applied for improving the reliability of the proposed system and predicting the traffic patterns in advance. The proposed method of determining the dead reckoning position (DRP) uses not only the ships' received data but also the navigational patterns and tracking data in harbor limits. The Mercator sailing formulas were used for calculating the ships' DRPs and planned routes. The data on the traffic patterns were collected from the automatic identification system and analyzed using MATLAB. Two randomly chosen ships were analyzed for simulating their tracks and comparing the DR method during the timeframes of the ships' movement. The proposed method of calculating DR, combined with the information on planned routes and DRPs, is expected to contribute towards improving the decision-making abilities of operators.

Development of Design Alternative Analysis Program Considering RAM Parameter and Cost (RAM 파라미터와 비용을 고려한 설계대안 분석 프로그램 개발)

  • Kim, Han-sol;Choi, Seong-Dae;Hur, Jang-wook
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Manufacturing Process Engineers
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    • v.18 no.6
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    • pp.1-8
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    • 2019
  • Modern weapon systems are multifunctional, with capabilities for executing complex missions. However, they are required to be highly reliable, which increases their total cost of ownership. Because it is necessary to produce the best results within a limited budget, there is an increasing interest in development, acquisition, and maintenance costs. Consequently, there is a need for tools that calculate the lifecycle costs of weapons systems development to facilitate decision making. In this study, we propose a cost calculation function based on the Markov process simulator-a reliability, availability, and maintainability analysis tool developed by applying the Markov-Monte Carlo method-as an alternative to these requirements to facilitate decision-making in systems development.

Deriving Robust Reservoir Operation Policy under Changing Climate: Use of Robust Optimiziation with Stochastic Dynamic Programming

  • Kim, Gi Joo;Kim, Young-Oh
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2020.06a
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    • pp.171-171
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    • 2020
  • Decision making strategies should consider both adaptiveness and robustness in order to deal with two main characteristics of climate change: non-stationarity and deep uncertainty. Especially, robust strategies are different from traditional optimal strategies in the sense that they are satisfactory over a wider range of uncertainty and may act as a key when confronting climate change. In this study, a new framework named Robust Stochastic Dynamic Programming (R-SDP) is proposed, which couples previously developed robust optimization (RO) into the objective function and constraint of SDP. Two main approaches of RO, feasibility robustness and solution robustness, are considered in the optimization algorithm and consequently, three models to be tested are developed: conventional-SDP (CSDP), R-SDP-Feasibility (RSDP-F), and R-SDP-Solution (RSDP-S). The developed models were used to derive optimal monthly release rules in a single reservoir, and multiple simulations of the derived monthly policy under inflow scenarios with varying mean and standard deviations are undergone. Simulation results were then evaluated with a wide range of evaluation metrics from reliability, resiliency, vulnerability to additional robustness measures. Evaluation results were finally visualized with advanced visualization tools that are used in multi-objective robust decision making (MORDM) framework. As a result, RSDP-F and RSDP-S models yielded more risk averse, or conservative, results than the CSDP model, and a trade-off relationship between traditional and robustness metrics was discovered.

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A Study on Association Rule and Cost Efficiency Analysis Model Using Construction Supervision Reports (건축공사감리 문서 기반 연관규칙 및 비용효율성 분석 모델)

  • Song, Tae-Geun;Yoo, Wi Sung
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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    • 2023.05a
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    • pp.389-390
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    • 2023
  • To improve the cost performance of construction sites, various systems and standards are constantly being developed and implemented. Although legal requirements for these system and standard improvements have been increasing, the cost efficiency performance of construction sites remains stagnant. We have digitized documents generated through construction supervision work at 39 building construction sites and proposed a model that can support decision-making in cost efficiency evaluation. This model selects key keywords that are considered to be highly related to cost efficiency by identifying the patterns and relationships of keywords through associated rule analysis and social network analysis using keywords derived from documents. In addition, it is expected to be used as a decision-making aid to determine the cost efficiency of a specific building construction site by establishing a logistic regression model using core keywords. As a systematic database of construction supervision documents and an integrated system of massive data generated by digital technology are established in the future, the accuracy and reliability of the cost efficiency evaluation model are expected to be reinforced.

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A Study on the Perception of Image-making Regulations Change of Airline Cabin Crew and Career Decision

  • Kim, Mun-Kyung
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.197-203
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    • 2020
  • The purpose of study is to identify the perception of image-making regulations change of airline cabin crew and analyze the relationship among the perception of regulations change, occupational choice motives and career decision of female university students majoring in airline service in Kwang-ju and Jeonnam area. The survey was in 203 for a month from November 18 to December 13, 2019. The collected data were analyzed using 'SPSS statistics 21.0.' Analytical methods such as frequency analysis, factor analysis, reliability analysis and multiple regression analysis were used. The findings of this study are presented as follows: Students majoring in airline service are positively aware of image-making regulations changes of airline cabin crew, positive perception of regulation changes has a statistically significant impact on occupational choice motives and career decision, and occupational choice motives have an effects on career decision. In conclusion, the study has implications for providing information to airlines to understand the applicants and to students preparing for employment. However, there is a limitation in that the sample of this study is limited to only female university students majoring in airline services in a specific area, and the size of the sample is not large.

A Study on Relationships Between Environment, Organizational Structure, and Organizational Effectiveness of Public Health Centers in Korea (보건소의 환경, 조직구조와 조직유효성과의 관계)

  • Yun, Soon-Nyoung
    • Research in Community and Public Health Nursing
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.5-33
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    • 1995
  • The objective of the study are two-fold: one is to explore the relationship between environment, organizational structure, and organizational effectiveness of public health centers in Korea, and the other is to examine the validity of contingency theory for improving the organizational structure of public health care agencies, with special emphasis on public health nursing administration. Accordingly, the conceptual model of the study consisted of three different concepts: environment, organizational structure, and organizational effectiveness, which were built up from the contingency theory. Data were collected during the period from 1st of May through 30th of June, 1990. From the total of 249 health centers in the country, one hundred and five centers were sampled non proportionally, according to the geopolitical distribution. Out of 105, 73 health centers responded to mailed questionnaire. The health centers were the unit of the study, and a various statistical analysis techniques were used: Reliability analysis(Cronbach's Alpha) for 4 measurement tools; Shapiro-Wilk statistic for normality test of measured scores of 6 variables: ANOVA, Pearson Correlaion analysis, regressional analysis, and canonical correlation analysis for the test of the relationships and differences between the variables. The results were. as follows : 1. No significant differences between forma lization, decision-making authority and environmental complexity were found(F=1.383, P=.24 ; F=.801, P=.37). 2. Negative relationships between formalization and decision-making authority for both urban and rural health centers were found(r=-.470, P=.002 ; r=-.348, P=.46). 3. No significant relationship between formalization and job satisfaction for both urban and rural health centers were found (r=-.242, P=.132, r=-.060, P=.739). 4. Significant positive relationship between decision - making authority and job satisfaction were found in urban health centers (r=.504, P=.0009), but no such relationship was observed in rural health centers. Regression coefficient between them was statistically significant($\beta=1.535$, P=.0002), and accuracy of regression line was accepted (W=.975, P= .420). 5. No significant relationships among formalization and family planning services, maternal health services, and tuberculosis control services for both urban and rural health centers were found. 6. Among decision-making authority and family planning services, maternal health services, and tuberculosis control services, significant positive relationship was found between de cision-making authority and family planning services(r=.286, P=.73). 7. A significant difference was found in maternal health services by the type of health centers (F=5.13, P=.026) but no difference was found in tuberculosis control services by the type of health centers, formalization, and decision-making authority. 8. A significant positive relationships were found between family planning services and maternal health services and tuberculosis control services, and between maternal health services and tuberculosis control services (r=-.499, P=.001 ; r=.457, P=.004 ; r=.495, P=.002) in case of urban health centers. In case of rural health centers, relationships between family planning services and tuberculosis control services, and between maternal health services and tuberculosis control services were statistically significant (r=.534, P=.002 ; r=.389, P=.027). No significant relationship was found between family planning and maternal health services. 9. A significant positive canonical correlation was found between the group of independent variables consisted of formalization and de cision-making authority and the group of dependent variables consisted of family planning services, maternal health services and tuberculosis control services(Rc=.455, P=.02). In case of urban health centers, no significant canonical correlation was found between them, but significant canoncial correlation was found in rural health centers(Rc=.578, P=.069), 10. Relationships between job satisfaction and health care productivity was not found significant. Through these results, the assumed relationship between environment and organizational structure was not supported in health centers. Therefore, the relationship between the organizational effectiveness and the congruence between environment and organizational structure that contingency theory proposes to exist was not able to be tested. However decision-making authority was found as an important variable of organizational structure affecting family planning services and job satisfaction in urban health centers. Thus it was suggested that decentralized decision making among health professionals would be a valuable strategy for improvement of organizational effectiveness in public health centers. It is also recommended that further studies to test contingency theory would use variability and uncertainty to define environment of public health centers instead of complexity.

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