• 제목/요약/키워드: conjugate distribution

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원자력 발전소 사고의 근사적인 베이지안 예측기법 (An Approximation Method in Bayesian Prediction of Nuclear Power Plant Accidents)

  • 양희중
    • 대한산업공학회지
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    • 제16권2호
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    • pp.135-147
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    • 1990
  • A nuclear power plant can be viewed as a large complex man-machine system where high system reliability is obtained by ensuring that sub-systems are designed to operate at a very high level of performance. The chance of severe accident involving at least partial core-melt is very low but once it happens the consequence is very catastrophic. The prediction of risk in low probability, high-risk incidents must be examined in the contest of general engineering knowledge and operational experience. Engineering knowledge forms part of the prior information that must be quantified and then updated by statistical evidence gathered from operational experience. Recently, Bayesian procedures have been used to estimate rate of accident and to predict future risks. The Bayesian procedure has advantages in that it efficiently incorporates experts opinions and, if properly applied, it adaptively updates the model parameters such as the rate or probability of accidents. But at the same time it has the disadvantages of computational complexity. The predictive distribution for the time to next incident can not always be expected to end up with a nice closed form even with conjugate priors. Thus we often encounter a numerical integration problem with high dimensions to obtain a predictive distribution, which is practically unsolvable for a model that involves many parameters. In order to circumvent this difficulty, we propose a method of approximation that essentially breaks down a problem involving many integrations into several repetitive steps so that each step involves only a small number of integrations.

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NHPP소프트웨어 신뢰도 성장모형에서 베이지안 모수추정과 예측 (Bayesian parameter estimation and prediction in NHPP software reliability growth model)

  • 장인홍;정덕환;이승우;송광윤
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • 제24권4호
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    • pp.755-762
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    • 2013
  • 본 논문은 NHPP 소프트웨어 신뢰성모형에서 모수추정과 고장시간에 대한 예측을 다루고자 한다. 소프트웨어 신뢰성모형 Goel-Okumoto모형에서 평균값 함수에 대한 최우추정과 경험적 사전분포를 가정한 공액사전분포에서 베이지안 추정을 다루었다. 실제 자료에서 두 가지 추정법에 의한 모수 추정값을 제공하였으며, 모형의 적합성을 판정하고, 고장수에 대한 예측값을 비교하였다.

LARGE SCALE FINITE ELEMENT THERMAL ANALYSIS OF THE BOLTS OF A FRENCH PWR CORE INTERNAL BAFFLE STRUCTURE

  • Rupp, Isabelle;Peniguel, Christophe;Tommy-Martin, Michel
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • 제41권9호
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    • pp.1171-1180
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    • 2009
  • The internal core baffle structure of a French Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) consists of a collection of baffles and formers that are attached to the barrel. The connections are done thanks to a large number of bolts (about 1500). After inspection, some of the bolts have been found cracked. This has been attributed to the Irradiation Assisted Stress Corrosion Cracking (IASCC). The $Electricit\acute{e}$ De France (EDF) has set up a research program to gain better knowledge of the temperature distribution, which may affect the bolts and the whole structure. The temperature distribution in the structure was calculated thanks to the thermal code SYRTHES that used a finite element approach. The heat transfer between the by-pass flow inside the cavities of the core baffle and the structure was accounted for thanks to a strong thermal coupling between the thermal code SYRTHES and the CFD code named Code_Saturne. The results for the CP0 plant design show that both the high temperature and strong temperature gradients could potentially induce mechanical stresses. The CPY design, where each bolt is individually cooled, had led to a reduction of temperatures inside the structures. A new parallel version of SYRTHES, for calculations on very large meshes and based on MPI, has been developed. A demonstration test on the complete structure that has led to about 1.1 billion linear tetraedra has been calculated on 2048 processors of the EDF Blue Gene computer.

Study of Protonation Behaviour and Distribution Ratios of Hydroxamic Acids in Hydrochloric and Perchloric Acid Solutions Through Hammett Acidity Function, Bunnett-Olsen and Excess Acidity Method

  • Agarwal, Manisha;Singh, Priyanka;Pande, Rama
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • 제57권2호
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    • pp.164-171
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    • 2019
  • The protonation parameters, dissociation constants ($pK_{BH^+}$) of conjugate acid, slope values (m, ${\phi}$ and $m^*$) and correlation coefficients (r) of hydroxamic acids were determined by Hammett acidity function method, Bunnett-Olsen method and excess acidity method in hydrochloric and perchloric acid solutions. Effect of acid concentration on partition and percentage protonation was also studied. $pK_{BH^+}$ values show that hydroxamic acids do not behave as Hammett bases, but hydroxamic acids behave as weak bases in strong acidic solutions. The values of $pK_{BH^+}$ obtained through Bunnett-Olsen method and excess acidity method were compared with the Hammett acidity function. ChemAxon's MarvinSketch 6.1.5 software was also used for determining $pK_a$, pI and microspecies distribution (%) of hydroxamic acids with pH. Hydrogen donor and acceptor values and logD were also obtained. The results show that N-p-chlorophenyl-4-bromobenzohydroxamic acid has the highest $pK_a$ and lowest logD values. On the contrary, N-phenyl-3,5-dinitrobenzohydroxamic acid has lowest the $pK_a$ and highest logD values.

CFD-CAD 통합해석을 이용한 전력기기 온도상승 예측 (Prediction of temperature rise of Electric Switching Device Using CFD-CAD Integrated Analysis)

  • 안희섭;이종철;최종웅;오일성
    • 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 대한전기학회 2002년도 하계학술대회 논문집 B
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    • pp.808-810
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    • 2002
  • Higher current-rating and improved thermal performance are being sought for existing medium-voltage vacuum circuit breakers(VCB) in order to meet market needs which require to be compact and downsized. In this paper, thermal performance of medium voltage vacuum circuit breaker was investigated through experiments and numerical analysis. We changed several major parameters of current-rating and heat sink affecting on thermal behaviors in the breaker and observed the results. To predict the temperature distribution in complex three-dimensional (3-D) VCB components and gas, the commercial package was used to simulate conjugate heat transfer. Although some assumptions and simplifications were introduced to simulate the model, results from the computational model were in good agreement with actual temperature rise measurements obtained from experiments.

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대류와 전도 열전달을 이용한 전자부품의 냉각특성 수치해석 (Numerical Analysis on Cooling Characteristics of Electronic Components Using Convection and Conduction Heat Transfer)

  • 손영석;신지영
    • 대한기계학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 대한기계학회 2001년도 춘계학술대회논문집D
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    • pp.390-395
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    • 2001
  • Cooling characteristics using convection and conduction heat transfer in a parallel channel with extruding heat sources are studied numerically. A two-dimensional model has been developed for numerical prediction of transient, compressible, viscous, laminar flow, and conjugate heat transfer between parallel plates with uniform block heat sources. The finite volume method is used to solve this problem. The considered assembly consists of two channels formed by two covers and one PCB which has three uniform heat source blocks. Five different cooling methods are considered to find efficient cooling method in a given geometry and heat source. The velocity and temperature fields, local temperature distribution along surface of blocks, and the maximum temperature in each block are obtained.

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축류송풍기의 저소음 설계에서 수치최적화기법들의 평가 (Assessment of Numerical Optimization Algorithms in Design of Low-Noise Axial-Flow Fan)

  • 최재호;김광용
    • 대한기계학회논문집B
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    • 제24권10호
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    • pp.1335-1342
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    • 2000
  • Three-dimensional flow analysis and numerical optimization methods are presented for the design of an axial-flow fan. Steady, incompressible, three-dimensional Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations are used as governing equations, and standard k- ${\varepsilon}$ turbulence model is chosen as a turbulence model. Governing equations are discretized using finite volume method. Steepest descent method, conjugate gradient method and BFGS method are compared to determine the searching directions. Golden section method and quadratic fit-sectioning method are tested for one dimensional search. Objective function is defined as a ratio of generation rate of the turbulent kinetic energy to pressure head. Two variables concerning sweep angle distribution are selected as the design variables. Performance of the final fan designed by the optimization was tested experimentally.

딤플형 판형 열교환기의 열유동 수치해석 (A Numerical Analysis of Flow and Heat Transfer in the Plate Heat Exchanger with Dimple)

  • 안혁진;이상혁;이명성;허남건
    • 한국전산유체공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국전산유체공학회 2008년도 춘계학술대회논문집
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    • pp.121-125
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    • 2008
  • In this study, the characteristics of internal flow and the heat transfer performance of dimpled plate heat exchanger were numerically investigated. For the numerical analysis, conjugate heat transfer method between cold fluid - plate - hot fluid was studied with appropriate boundary conditions. Velocity magnitude, temperature and pressure distribution were obtained from the simulation. Correlations for fanning f-factor and Colburn j-factor were obtained from numerical results and compared to the experimented data.

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역 문제에 의한 파이프의 결함위치 평가 (Estimation of Defect Position on the Pipe Line by Inverse Problem)

  • 박성완
    • 한국생산제조학회지
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    • 제20권2호
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    • pp.139-144
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    • 2011
  • This paper presents a boundary element application to determine the optimal impressed current densities at defect position on the pipe line. In this protection paint, enough current must be impressed to lower the potential distribution on the metal surface to the critical values. The optimal impressed current densities are determined in order to minimize the power supply for protection. This inverse problem was formulated by employing the boundary element method. Since the system of linear equations obtained was ill-conditioned, including singular value decomposition, conjugate gradient method were applied and the accuracies of these estimation. Several numerical examples are presented to demonstrate the practical applicability of the proposed method.

과도열전도를 갖는 평판핀에서의 강제대류 열전달 (Forced Convection Heat Transfer in a Plate Fin With Transient Heat Conduction)

  • 조진호;이상균
    • 오토저널
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    • 제9권4호
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    • pp.69-76
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    • 1987
  • A conjugate conduction-convection analysis has been made for a plate fin which exchanges heat with its fluid environment by forced convection. The analysis is based on a one- dimensional model for the plate fin whereby the transient heat conduction equation for the fin is solved simultaneously with the conservation equations for mass, momentum, and energy in the fluid boundary layer adjacent to the fin. The forced convection heat transfer coefficient is not specified in advance but is one the results of the numerical solutions. Numerical results of the overall heat transfer rate, the local heat transfer coefficient, the local heat flux, the fin efficiency and the fin surface temperature distribution for Pr=0.7 are presented for a wide range of operating conditions.

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