• 한국시스템다이내믹스연구
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• 제14권2호
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• pp.31-53
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• 2013

This article deals with a Causal-Loop analysis of the characteristics of Ouroboros effects. The meaning of the effects is that solutions to problems are usually intended as final fixes, but more often than not, while solving one problem, they generate more problems. It means 'to worsen through attempts to make better.' The Ouroboros effects are very dangerous because they are regarded as a kind of self-destructive mechanisms. While existing researchers recognize the risks of the effects, they are not able to solve the systematic problem but only to describe the symptom. Such a way to deal with the effects results in difficulty to clarify the cause-and-effect relationship within the system. Thus the authors are focusing on explaining the effects by SD (System Dynamics), which are considered as the sole methodology to do effectively so far since SD is a great tool to discover structural causes. To solve the self-destructive problem of the effects, the authors analyze the characteristics of several cases of the effects in elaborating the CLD (Causal Loop Diagram) for each case. The analysis reveals the structural characteristics of the effects and how to correct them towards maintaining the sustainability of systems.

• 한국항해항만학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국항해항만학회 1994년도 추계학술발표회
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• pp.49-58
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• 1994

The methods of estimation of VTS effectivenss are compared and the worldwide literature related to the VTS effectiveness is reviewed. The review suggests three potential approaches ; simulation ; synthesis of expert opinion and statistical analysis of casualties. this study adopted dissimilar approaches to estimate the VTS effectiveness to the earlier studies ; the combination of synthesis of expert opinion and causal analysis of casualty. The VTS effectiveness is derived by multiplying casualty rate reduction factors by the effect level of causal factors. The development of casualty rate reduction factors was based on the questionnaire survey and the evolution of effect levels was based on the causal analysis using functional block diagram. According to these procedures the maximum benefit to be obtained through the introduction of a VTS system was approximately 46 percent overall. The collision reduction rate was estimated to be approximately 50 percent for a VTS system with advanced radar surveillance. And 47 percent of groundings 36 percent of rammings and 21 percent of founderings could be reduced by the introduction of VTS. These figures are more or less the same to the earlier studies. The VTS effectiveness by the different causal factor groups was examined. VTS may reduce about 68 percent of causal factors classified as environmental conditions 40 percent of human factors and 35 percent of technical factors in collision accidents. As a whole 60 percent of environmental factors 41 percent of human factors and 20 percent of technical factors may be prevented by a VTS. The key variable of the effectiveness percentage is the value of weight coefficient $\delta$. Therefore differing values for this input was discussed and the impact that these variations have on the VS effectiveness noted. As the results of sensitivity analysis of VTS effectiveness by $\pm$10 percent the effectiveness is varied approximately three to seven percent by casualty type. And the value is changed roughly four to eight percent by a $\pm$10 percent variation by different sub-areas.

• 한국시스템다이내믹스연구
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• 제7권2호
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• pp.133-148
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• 2006

This study suggests a Causal Loop Diagram(CLD) of causality mechanism which are integrating matters of localization, networking, embeddedness & institutional thickness and collective learning. These five factors(localization, networking, embeddedness & institutional thickness, collective learning, innovative synergy) have been studied and proofed Also this study suggest a model of industry cluster based on holistic and global system thinking rather than local and linear thinking.

• 한국시스템다이내믹스연구
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• 제9권1호
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• pp.93-105
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• 2008

This study suggests a Causal Loop Diagram(CLD) of Causality Mechanism which are intergrating matter of for-profit hospital, non-for profit hospital, healthcare development, national medical spending. To coordinate each part theory, we suggest more developed medical system in our study. Through the system thinking, development of hospital as research center in industry can lesson the rise of medical spending effectively.

• 한국국방경영분석학회지
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• 제25권1호
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• pp.37-54
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• 1999

In this paper, we proposed a modeling method of continuous combat simulation by using VENSIM. VENSIM is a CASE tool for developing continuous simulation. It provides a simple and flexible way of building simulation models from causal loop or influence diagram. As a case model, we developed "a prototype model of battle"incorporating infantry, artillery, air defense weapon, aircraft, and guerrilla engagement.ngagement.

• 한국조경학회지
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• 제45권2호
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• pp.11-22
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• 2017

저탄소 도시 실현의 대안으로써 저탄소경관을 창출하기 위해서는 다중 스케일 차원에서 디자인 요소들의 동태성을 이해해야 하며, 탄소 저장효과를 정량적으로 평가할 수 있어야 한다. 본 연구의 목적은 시스템 다이내믹스를 활용하여 인공지반 교목의 탄소저장량 변화를 장기적인 측면에서 시뮬레이션하고 평가하는 것이다. 연구의 과정은 인과지도를 통해 다중 스케일 측면에서 탄소순환의 동태성을 분석하고, 강남구청 본관 옥상공원의 탄소저장량에 대하여 2008년, 2018년, 2028년, 2038년의 변화를 시뮬레이션하였다. 연구의 결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 인공지반 교목과 도시 탄소순환 탄소저장량의 관계에 대한 인과지도 분석결과, 다중 스케일간의 관계성이 확인되었다. 둘째, 시뮬레이션 모델의 주요변수는 '바이오매스', '탄소저장량', '고사유기물', '탄소흡수량'이 선정되어 모델에 활용되었으며, 적합도는 $R^2=0.725$(p<0.05)로 유의한 것으로 나타났다. 셋째, 시뮬레이션 모델 결과, 인공지반 교목의 탄소저장량은 시간의 흐름에 따라 수종의 순위가 다양하게 변하였다. 이에 따라 본 연구에서는 홍단풍, 소나무, 자작나무와 같은 수종을 강남구청 본관 옥상공원의 탄소저장량 향상을 위한 수종으로 제안하였다. 이러한 연구 결과는 저탄소경관 계획 시 식재계획의 기준안 또는 수종 선택에 기여할 수 있을 것이다.

• 한국정보시스템학회지:정보시스템연구
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• 제29권3호
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• pp.179-195
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• 2020

Purpose & Design/methodology/approach Amidst the COVID-19 spread, interest in telework has been increasing as a way to respond to environmental changes and improve organizational performance. In this study, causal loop diagram, thinking process, and four principles of TRIZ were used to find various ways to achieve work-life balance for workers and firms in teleworking environment. Findings The result of the causal loop diagram shows that keeping work-life balance is needed to provide free extra time for workers and achieve the firm's performance through efficient coordination between departments in teleworking environment. Using thinking process of TOC, we proposed a evaporating cloud for work-life balance and reviewed assumptions and premises to maintain extra free time for workers and achieve firm's performance paradoxically, and suggested solutions through the breakdown of the assumptions and premises. Resolving the contradiction(RC) by spatial separation is to divide working spaces into home, smart center, and mobile work types, to find both ways to achieve the organizational performance, and to provide extra time for workers. RC by temporal separation is to divide working time into various unit time, and to find ways to achieve organizational performance through doing work at office or home periodically or shiftly according to a predetermined schedule and time setting. RC by situational separation is to give options of flexible methods of performing work according to the conditions of the company or the worker. RC by separation between part and a whole is to find ways to organize and do the work so that the entire work can be completed efficiently even if each work is performed separately in teleworking way. This study is meaningful in that it provides basic thinking framework for achieving work-life balance in teleworking environment and proposes ways to resolve conflict from various perspectives, but it is limited in that it has not been tested empirically.

• 한국시뮬레이션학회논문지
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• 제27권3호
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• pp.53-63
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• 2018

미래 전장 환경이 복잡하고 다양화됨에 따라 조직에 적절한 구조 및 편성을 작성하는 것도 간단하지 않은 일이 되었다. 이에 본 연구에서는 육군의 미래 제대별 참모부 편성을 시스템 다이내믹스를 활용하여 검증하는 방법론을 제시한다. 참모부 구조 및 편성 검증을 위한 SD 활용 절차는 입력 DB값 산출, 인과지도 작성 및 모델 구축, 모의 및 분석 순으로 진행된다. 시스템 다이내믹스를 활용한 모의분석의 취약점은 입력 값에 따라 결과가 달라질 수 있고 모의인원의 관점에 따라 분석이 달라질 수 있다는 것이다. 본 연구에서는 이에 대한 보완책으로 연구 분석, 설문 등을 병행하여 종합분석에 포함하는 방법을 적용하였다. 본 연구의 의의는 군조직의 구조 및 편성을 검증하기 위한 과학적인 방법으로 조직편성의 적절성을 정량화하여 판단할 수 있는 전투실험 방법을 제시함으로써 그 활용 가치가 크다고 판단된다.

• 보건교육건강증진학회지
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• 제35권5호
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• pp.1-16
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• 2018

Objectives: This study aimed to examine systems behavior of urban walking by analyzing a dynamic structure in Seoul, South Korea. Methods: As a systems thinking approach to urban walking and health promotion, we developed a Casual Loop Diagram based on literature review and expert consultation. The reviewed literature included: 1) qualitative studies that explores the experiences of urban walkers in Seoul; 2) a systematic review study on the built environmental factors related to walking; 3) policy research reports related to urban walking in Seoul. Results: The feedback structure for urban walking was related to the three urban environments (safety & walking environment, socioeconomic environment, and public transportation environment), and was characterized by a trade-off consisting of eight reinforcing loops and four balancing loops. Conclusions: The policies for a walkable city require multi-sectoral cooperation in order to change the causal loop structure related to the decline of walking. Therefore, it is necessary to establish legal and institutional conditions so that multi-sectoral and multidisciplinary approaches are possible.

• 한국항해학회지
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• 제25권2호
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• pp.97-106
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• 2001

이 연구는 항만교통정보센터의 시스템 확충 및 연안 선박교통관리제도의 도입에는 많은 비용이 소요되기 때문에 비용과 편익을 비교하여 타당성을 조사하고자 한다. 따라서 비용과 편익을 분석하는데 중요한 기초자료가 되는 사고예방효과를 추정하고자 한다. 추정의 방법은 거제해역에서 발생한 해양사고를 분석하여 원인요소를 도출한 후 이를 설문문항으로 구성하여 항만교통정보센터의 운영요원을 대상으로 설문을 실시한다. 연안 선박교통관리제도의 도입에 의한 사고예방효과는 충돌사고에서 55.572%, 좌초사고에서 51.667%로 추정되었다. 또한 인적요소와 환경요소에 의한 효과는 높지만 기술적 요소에 의한 효과는 미미한 것으로 분석되었다.