• Title/Summary/Keyword: average value at risk

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Study on Estimating Economic Risk Cost of Aids to Navigation Accident in Busan Port, Korea using Contingent Valuation Method (조건부가치측정법을 이용한 부산항 항로표지사고에 대한 항행 위험비용의 추정에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Tae-Goun;Moon, Beom-Sik
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.42 no.6
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    • pp.478-485
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    • 2018
  • Aids to Navigation (AtoN) is one of the marine traffic safety facilities that promotes the safety of maritime traffic and enhance ship's operational efficiency. However, functional failure of AtoN due to ship's collision or bad weather conditions leads to inconvenience or navigational risk to various users such as the ship operators. For insstance, the largest container port in Korea, Busan Port has experienced a total of 400 AtoN accidents in the past 12 years (2006-2017).Therefore, an average of 20.6 days of recovery time is required, which increases the maritime safety anxiety for AtoN users. is the objective of this study was to present the quantitative support of the users for the prevention of AtoN accidents and the improvement of the feasibility of implementing more efficient management in Korea. A survey was conducted on the users of Busan port areas to investigate general perception of AtoN in general and the accidents that have happened, and to estimate the economic value of navigational risk reduction by implementing effective AtoN management measure. Using the representative non-market valuation method for environmental or public goods known as contingent valuation method (CVM), the economic value granted to users for the AtoN services in Busan port was estimated to at least 16 billion won. Therefore, these finding could be used by AtoN managers and/or policy makers as a valuable data to identify the users' need of various AtoN services including Busan Port and to establish and implement more efficient management plan.

The Theory of Auctions and Competitive Bidding : A Survey (경매 및 경쟁입찰에 관한 이론적 고찰;-문헌연구를 중심으로 -)

  • 정형찬
    • The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.89-102
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    • 1994
  • This paper is to survey the major results of the game-theoretic models and recent research directions of the literature on auctions and competitive biddings. This paper classifies the auctions and competitive biddings into the following four major types:(i) English auction, (ii) Dutch auction, (iii) the first-price sealed-bid auction, (iv) the second-price sealed-bid auction. In order to survey the major ideas related to auctions and competitive biddings, we use two representative theoretical models developed under the game-theoretic framework : (i) the independent private value model are summarized as follows ; (1) The Dutch auction and the first-price auction are strategically equivalent, and so are the English auction and the second-price auction. (2) At the symmetric equilibria, the expected selling price is the same for all four types of auction. Meanwhile, the major results of the general model are as follows ; (1) When bidders are uncertain about their value extimate, the English and second-price auctions are not equivalent, but the dutch and the first-price auctions are still strategically equivalent. (2) The English auction generates the higher expected prices than the second-price auction. Also, when bidders are risk-neutral, the second-price auction generated higher average prices than the Dutch and the first-price auctions.

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Stock Price Prediction and Portfolio Selection Using Artificial Intelligence

  • Sandeep Patalay;Madhusudhan Rao Bandlamudi
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.30 no.1
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    • pp.31-52
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    • 2020
  • Stock markets are popular investment avenues to people who plan to receive premium returns compared to other financial instruments, but they are highly volatile and risky due to the complex financial dynamics and poor understanding of the market forces involved in the price determination. A system that can forecast, predict the stock prices and automatically create a portfolio of top performing stocks is of great value to individual investors who do not have sufficient knowledge to understand the complex dynamics involved in evaluating and predicting stock prices. In this paper the authors propose a Stock prediction, Portfolio Generation and Selection model based on Machine learning algorithms, Artificial neural networks (ANNs) are used for stock price prediction, Mathematical and Statistical techniques are used for Portfolio generation and Un-Supervised Machine learning based on K-Means Clustering algorithms are used for Portfolio Evaluation and Selection which take in to account the Portfolio Return and Risk in to consideration. The model presented here is limited to predicting stock prices on a long term basis as the inputs to the model are based on fundamental attributes and intrinsic value of the stock. The results of this study are quite encouraging as the stock prediction models are able predict stock prices at least a financial quarter in advance with an accuracy of around 90 percent and the portfolio selection classifiers are giving returns in excess of average market returns.

Evaluation of the Usefulness for VMAT of multiple brain metastasis using jaw tracking (Jaw tracking을 이용한 다발성 뇌 전이의 용적세기조절회전치료에 대한 유용성 평가)

  • Kim, Tae Won;Yoo, Soon Mi;Jeon, Soo Dong;Yoon, In Ha;Back, Geum Mun
    • The Journal of Korean Society for Radiation Therapy
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    • v.30 no.1_2
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    • pp.73-81
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    • 2018
  • Purpose : The aims of this study were to compare and assess the effectiveness of Volumetric Modulated Arc Therapy(VMAT) using jaw tracking(JT) and fixed jaw(FJ) in radiation therapy of multiple brain metastasis. Methode and material : Among the patients with Multiple Brain Metastasis treated with jaw tracking, 10 patients with more than 6 tumors and with the size of radiation field $14{\times}14cm^2$ or more were included. Each Treatment plans with jaw tracking(JT) and fixed jaw(FJ) was established with Eclipse (Ver. 13.6 Varian, USA). Gamma Index (3 mm, 3 % confidence interval - 95 %) and maximum dose difference were measured with an electronic portal imaging device(EPID). The $D_{max}$ and $D_{mean}$ of Organ At Risk(OAR) were assessed and compared, and the Conformity Index(CI) and Homogeneity Index(HI) were evaluated. Result : Evaluating jaw tracking(JT) and fixed jaw(FJ) outcomes, in all cases, Gamma Index met the permissible standard of 3 mm, 3 % confidence intervals of 95 %. The maximum dose difference value from the areas with leaf end transmission was measured at a maximum of 98.4 % and an average of 43.6 % in clockwise(CW), and 67.9 % and 41.0 % for each in Counter-Clockwise(CCW). With jaw tracking, the maximum value of $D_{max}$ for each normal organ in OAR decreased in 15.36 %~74.59 % with the average value decreasing in 2.84 %~39.80 %. The maximum value of $D_{mean}$ in OAR decreased in 27.90 %~65.23 %, with the average value decreasing in 7.70 %~41.71 %. No change has been found in Conformity Index and Homogeneity Index values. Conclusion : When Jaw tracking is used in treating patients with multiple brain metastasis with VMAT, the unnecessary exposure due to leakage and transmission of radiation in unspecified areas was reduced, without affecting the dose distribution of the planning target volume(PTV), and the availability of radiation therapy with lower doses in normal organs is expected.

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Postoperative Clinical Outcome and Risk Factors for Poor Outcome of Foraminal and Extraforaminal Lumbar Disc Herniation

  • Bae, Jung Sik;Kang, Kyung Hee;Park, Jeong Hyun;Lim, Jae Hyeon;Jang, Il Tae
    • Journal of Korean Neurosurgical Society
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    • v.59 no.2
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    • pp.143-148
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    • 2016
  • Objective : We evaluated postoperative outcomes in patients who have lumbar foraminal or extraforaminal disc herniation (FELDH) and suggested the risk factors for poor outcomes. Methods : A total of 234 patients were selected for this study. Pre- and post-operative Visual Analogue Scale (VAS) and Korean version Oswestry Disability Index (KODI) were evaluated and the changes of both score were calculated. Outcome was defined as excellent, good, fair, and poor based on Mcnab classification. The percentage of superior facetectomy was calculated by using the Maro-view 5.4 Picture Archiving Communication System (PACS). Results : Paramedian lumbar discectomy was performed in 180 patients and combined lumbar discectomy was performed in 54 patients. Paramedian lumbar discectomy group showed better outcome compared with combined discectomy group. p value of VAS change was 0.009 and KODI was 0.013. The average percentage of superior facetectomy was 33% (range, 0-79%) and it showed negative correlation with VAS and KODI changes (Pearson coefficient : -0.446 and -0.498, respectively). Excellent or good outcome cases (Group I) were 136 (58.1%) and fair or poor outcome cases (Group II) were 98 (41.9%). The percentage of superior facetectomy was 26.5% at Group I and 42.5% at Group II. There was significant difference in superior facetectomy percentage between Group I and II (p=0.000). Conclusion : This study demonstrated that paramedian lumbar discectomy with preservation of facet joints is an effective and good procedure for FELDH. At least 60% of facet should be preserved for excellent or good outcomes.

Health Risk Assessment for Workers Exposed to Diazinon Insecticide (디아지논 취급 근로자의 건강 위험성 평가)

  • Jung, Woo Jin;Kim, Chi Nyon;Won, Jong Uk;Kim, Ki Youn;Roh, Jaehoon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Occupational and Environmental Hygiene
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.100-106
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    • 2012
  • Objectives: Diazinon is an insecticide which acts as a contact stomach and respiratory poison, and used throughout the world to control a wide range of sucking and chewing insects and mites on a range of crops. In this study, the airborne diazinon levels were measured for farmers, pest control operaters, landscapers, and agricultural chemicals sellers, and an assessment of the health risk to the workers was presented. The exposure scenario was based on the route of inhalation and skin absorption. The "OSHA Method No. 62" was used to sample and measure the airborne diazinon levels. The skin wipe method was applied to measure the level of the diazinone exposure through the skin. For the determination of exposure scenario, the exposure factors were surveyed for the daily average inhalation rate and the exposure period and frequency and time of diazinone as well as the body weight and lifetime of the workers. The median values of exposure frequency and exposure time were selected after evaluating the validity of those. Methods: The highest level of the diazinon exposure in the air was $107.21ug/m^3$ in farmers, followed by $93.53ug/m^3$ in landscapers, at $31.40ug/m^3$ in pest control operators, and $1.04ug/m^3$ in agricultural chemical seller. The amount of skin absorption was the highest in farmers at 63.39 ug/day, followed by landscapers at 10.47 ng/day, pest control operaters at 4.26 ng/day, and agricultural chemicals sellers at 0.34 ng/day. The hazardous indices calculated using toxicological reference value were 2.79 for pest control operaters, 0.41 for landscapers, 0.07 for agricultural chemicals sellers, and 0.06 for farmers. Conclusions: While the farmers were exposed to the high levels of diazinon through the air and skin, the pest control operaters, landscapers and agricultural chemicals sellers have more the diazinon hazards than the farmer based on the risk assessment in this study.

Prediction of Inhalation Exposure to Benzene by Activity Stage Using a Caltox Model at the Daesan Petrochemical Complex in South Korea (CalTOX 모델을 이용한 대산 석유화학단지의 활동단계에 따른 벤젠 흡입 노출평가)

  • Lee, Jinheon;Lee, Minwoo;Park, Changyong;Park, Sanghyun;Song, Youngho;Kim, Ok;Shin, Jihun
    • Journal of Environmental Health Sciences
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    • v.48 no.3
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    • pp.151-158
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    • 2022
  • Background: Chemical emissions in the environment have rapidly increased with the accelerated industrialization taking place in recent decades. Residents of industrial complexes are concerned about the health risks posed by chemical exposure. Objectives: This study was performed to suggest modeling methods that take into account multimedia and multi-pathways in human exposure and risk assessment. Methods: The concentration of benzene emitted at industrial complexes in Daesan, South Korea and the exposure of local residents was estimated using the Caltox model. The amount of human exposure based on inhalation rate was stochastically predicted for various activity stages such as resting, normal walking, and fast walking. Results: The coefficient of determination (R2) for the CalTOX model efficiency was 0.9676 and the root-mean-square error (RMSE) was 0.0035, indicating good agreement between predictions and measurements. However, the efficiency index (EI) appeared to be a negative value at -1094.4997. This can be explained as the atmospheric concentration being calculated only from the emissions from industrial facilities in the study area. In the human exposure assessment, the higher the inhalation rate percentile value, the higher the inhalation rate and lifetime average daily dose (LADD) at each activity step. Conclusions: Prediction using the Caltox model might be appropriate for comparing with actual measurements. The LADD of females was higher ratio with an increase in inhalation rate than those of males. This finding would imply that females may be more susceptible to benzene as their inhalation rate increases.

Severity-Adjusted Mortality Rates : The Case of CABG Surgery (관상동맥우회술 수술환자의 수술 후 사망률 예측모형의 개발)

  • Park, Hyeung-Keun;Kwon, Young-Dae;Shin, You-Cheol;Lee, Jin-Seok;Kim, Hae-Joon;Sohn, Moon-Jun;Ahn, Hyeong-Sik
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.34 no.1
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    • pp.21-27
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    • 2001
  • Objectives : To develop a model that will predict the mortality of patients undergoing Coronary Artery Bypass Graft (CABG) and evaluate the perfermance of hospitals. Methods : Data from 564 CABGs peformed in six general hospitals were collected through medical record abstraction by registered nurses. Variables studied involved risk factors determined by severity measures. Risk modeling was performed through logistic repression and validated with cross-validation. The statistical performance of the developed model was evaluated using c-statistic, $R^2$, and Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic. Hospital performance was assessed by severity-adjusted mortalities. Results : The developed model included age, sex, BUN, EKG rhythm, Congestive Heart Failure at admission. acute mental change within 24 hours, and previous angina pectoris history. The c-statistic and $R^2$ were 0.791 and 0.001, respectively. Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic was 10.3(p value=0.2415). One hospital had a significantly higher mortality rate than the average mortality rate, while others were net significantly different. Conclusion : Comparing the quality of service by severity adjusted mortality rates, there were significant differences in hospital performance. The severity adjusted mortality rate of CABG surgery may He an indicator for evaluating hospital performance in Korea.

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Risk Assessment of Azoxystrobin Residues in Fresh Crown Daisy from Farm to Fork (생산단계에서 소비단계 생식 쑥갓의 azoxystrobin 잔류량에 따른 위해성 평가)

  • Sun-Woo Ban;A-Yeon Oh;Hee-Ra Chang
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Agriculture
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    • v.42 no.2
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    • pp.131-138
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    • 2023
  • The biological half-life and dissipation rate of azoxystrobin in crown daisy were calculated to establish the pre-harvest residue limits (PHRLs). The pesticide residues were calculated after washing with five different processes to propose an effective process in the household and conducted a risk assessment to confirm dietary safety. Azoxystrobin was sprayed according to the critical good agricultural practices (cGAP) in two different field trials, and the samples were harvested 7 times. The limit of quantitation was 0.02 mg/kg, and the mean recoveries of azoxystrobin were within the range of 70~120% with below 20% coefficient variation at the concentration of 0.02 and 0.2 mg/kg . The biological half-lives were 7.4 and 4.7 days, and the dissipation rate constants were 0.0872 and 0.1217 in fields 1 and 2, respectively. The average removal rates were 58.13~78.13% by the different washing processes, and there were significant differences between the washing processes (one-way ANOVA analysis and post-hoc Duncan test, p-value<0.05). The residues of azoxystrobin in crown daisy were safe levels from farm to fork after application with the critical good agricultural practice (cGAP) registered in Korea.

The Change of the Fracture Risk by a Fracture Risk Factor in the FRAX Tool (FRAX Tool에서 골절위험인자에 따른 골절위험도의 변화)

  • Song, Hyeon-Seok;Lee, Hyo-Yeong;Yun, Jong-Jun;Lee, Hwa-Jin;Lee, Moo-Seok;Park, Sae-Yoon;Jeong, Ji-Wook
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine Technology
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    • v.13 no.3
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    • pp.132-136
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    • 2009
  • Purpose: WHO(world health organization) announced the FRAX Tool(fracture risk assessment) of new software in the beginning of 2008. FRAX Tool was considered various risk factor, being different from existing fracture risk. In this study, we wanted to know the fracture risk of following the changing of the risk factor of fracture. Materials and Methods: A total of 50 women aged 50~60 were studied. We measured BMD at the part of femur neck which was based on the age, weight, height of individual with GE, Lunar-prodigy. The control group is fracture risk without considering fracture risk factor. The experimental group is previous fracture, parent fracture, current smoking, glucocorticoid, rheumatoid arthritis, secondary osteoporosis, alcohol. if each items makes one 'existence', others are all 'nothing'. and the results produced major osteoporotic region and hip fracture risk in 10-years. Statistics used t-test of SPSS 12.0. Results: The average rate of increment of major osteoporotic region between control group and experimental group, previous fracture-74% increase, parent fracture-96% increase, current smoking-2% increase, glucocorticoid-61% increase, rheumatoid arthritis-29% increase, alcohol-20% increase, secondary osteoporosis-0.18% decrease. The average rate of increment of hip region between control group and experimental group, previous fracture-84% increase, parent fracture-5% increase, current smoking-72% increase, glucocorticoid-84% increase, rheumatoid arthritis-40% increase, alcohol-52% increase, secondary osteoporosis-1.69% decrease. Conclusions: Each fracture risk factor has different rate of increment between major osteoporotic and hip region while in occasion of the second osteoporosis it has little relation because of low P-value. We could know that a contribution of the risk factor is different between major osteoporotic and hip region.

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