• Title/Summary/Keyword: World model approach

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An Approach to Applying Multiple Linear Regression Models by Interlacing Data in Classifying Similar Software

  • Lim, Hyun-il
    • Journal of Information Processing Systems
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.268-281
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    • 2022
  • The development of information technology is bringing many changes to everyday life, and machine learning can be used as a technique to solve a wide range of real-world problems. Analysis and utilization of data are essential processes in applying machine learning to real-world problems. As a method of processing data in machine learning, we propose an approach based on applying multiple linear regression models by interlacing data to the task of classifying similar software. Linear regression is widely used in estimation problems to model the relationship between input and output data. In our approach, multiple linear regression models are generated by training on interlaced feature data. A combination of these multiple models is then used as the prediction model for classifying similar software. Experiments are performed to evaluate the proposed approach as compared to conventional linear regression, and the experimental results show that the proposed method classifies similar software more accurately than the conventional model. We anticipate the proposed approach to be applied to various kinds of classification problems to improve the accuracy of conventional linear regression.

Application of Tracking Signal to the Markowitz Portfolio Selection Model to Improve Stock Selection Ability by Overcoming Estimation Error (추적 신호를 적용한 마코위츠 포트폴리오 선정 모형의 종목 선정 능력 향상에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Younghyun;Kim, Hongseon;Kim, Seongmoon
    • Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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    • v.41 no.3
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    • pp.1-21
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    • 2016
  • The Markowitz portfolio selection model uses estimators to deduce input parameters. However, the estimation errors of input parameters negatively influence the performance of portfolios. Therefore, this model cannot be reliably applied to real-world investments. To overcome this problem, we suggest an algorithm that can exclude stocks with large estimation error from the portfolio by applying a tracking signal to the Markowitz portfolio selection model. By calculating the tracking signal of each stock, we can monitor whether unexpected departures occur on the outcomes of the forecasts on rate of returns. Thereafter, unreliable stocks are removed. By using this approach, portfolios can comprise relatively reliable stocks that have comparatively small estimation errors. To evaluate the performance of the proposed approach, a 10-year investment experiment was conducted using historical stock returns data from 6 different stock markets around the world. Performance was assessed and compared by the Markowitz portfolio selection model with additional constraints and other benchmarks such as minimum variance portfolio and the index of each stock market. Results showed that a portfolio using the proposed approach exhibited a better Sharpe ratio and rate of return than other benchmarks.

A Study on Adaptive Model Updating and a Priori Threshold Decision for Speaker Verification System (화자 확인 시스템을 위한 적응적 모델 갱신과 사전 문턱치 결정에 관한 연구)

  • 진세훈;이재희;강철호
    • The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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    • v.19 no.5
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    • pp.20-26
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    • 2000
  • In speaker verification system the HMM(hidden Markov model) parameter updating using small amount of data and the priori threshold decision are crucial factor for dealing with long-term variability in people voices. In the paper we present the speaker model updating technique which can be adaptable to the session-to-intra speaker variability and the priori threshold determining technique. The proposed technique decreases verification error rates which the session-to-session intra-speaker variability can bring by adapting new speech data to speaker model parameter through Baum Welch re-estimation. And in this study the proposed priori threshold determining technique is decided by a hybrid score measurement which combines the world model based technique and the cohen model based technique together. The results show that the proposed technique can lead a better performance and the difference of performance is small between the posteriori threshold decision based approach and the proposed priori threshold decision based approach.

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Analysis of Global Food Market and Food-Energy Price Links: Based on System Dynamics Approach

  • Kim, Gyu-Rim
    • Korean System Dynamics Review
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    • v.10 no.3
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    • pp.105-124
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    • 2009
  • The situation of the global food markets has been being rapidly restructured and entering on a new phase by new dynamic and driving forces. The factors such as economic growth and income increase, high energy price, globalization, urbanization, and global climate change are transforming patterns of food consumption, production, and markets. The prices and markets of world food and energy are getting increasingly linked each other. Food and fuel are the global dilemma issues associated with the risk of diverting farmland or of consuming cereals for biofuel production in detriment of the cereals supply to the global food markets. An estimated 100 million tons of grain per year are being redirected from food to fuel. Therefore, the objectives of this study are as follows: Firstly, the study examines situations of the world food and energy resources, analyzes the trends of prices of the crude oil and biofuel, and formulates the food-energy links mechanism. Secondly, the study builds a simulation model, based on system dynamics approach, for not only analyzing the global cereals market and energy market but also forecasting the global production, consumption, and stock of those markets by 2030 in the future. The model of this study consists of four sectors, i.e., world population dynamics sector, global food market dynamics sector, global energy market dynamics sector, scenario sector of world economic growth and oil price.

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A PNN approach for combining multiple forecasts (예측치 결합을 위한 PNN 접근방법)

  • Jun, Duk-Bin;Shin, Hyo-Duk;Lee, Jung-Jin
    • Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.193-199
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    • 2000
  • In many studies, considerable attention has been focussed upon choosing a model which represents underlying process of time series and forecasting the future. In the real world, however, there may be some cases that one model can not reflect all the characteristics of original time series. Under such circumstances, we may get better performance by combining the forecasts from several models. The most popular methods for combining forecasts involve taking a weighted average of multiple forecasts. But the weights are usually unstable. In cases the assumptions of normality and unbiasedness for forecast errors are satisfied, a Bayesian method can be used for updating the weights. In the real world, however, there are many circumstances the Bayesian method is not appropriate. This paper proposes a PNN(Probabilistic Neural Net) approach as a method for combining forecasts that can be applied when the assumption of normality or unbiasedness for forecast errors is not satisfied. In this paper, PNN method, which is similar to Bayesian approach, is suggested as an updating method of the unstable weights in the combination of the forecasts. The PNN method has been usually used in the field of pattern recognition. Unlike the Bayesian approach, it requires no assumption of a specific prior distribution because it gets probabilities by using the distribution estimated from given data. Empirical results reveal that the PNN method offers superior predictive capabilities.

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An Approach to Double Hoist Scheduling in the Chemical Processes

  • Lim, Joon-Mook;Hwang, Hark
    • Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.131-145
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    • 1993
  • This paper deals with scheduling problem of the chemical process system where aircraft parts go through a given sequence of tanks filled with chemical solutions. The system has two hoists which move carriers holding the parts between tanks. A mixed integer programming model is developed from which a maximum throughput schedule can be found for the hoist movements. To show the validity of the model, a real world problem is solved and the results are compared with those with an existing approach.

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Solving a New Multi-Period Multi-Objective Multi-Product Aggregate Production Planning Problem Using Fuzzy Goal Programming

  • Khalili-Damghani, Kaveh;Shahrokh, Ayda
    • Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.369-382
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    • 2014
  • This paper introduces a new multi-product multi-period multi-objective aggregate production planning problem. The proposed problem is modeled using multi-objective mixed-integer mathematical programming. Three objective functions, including minimizing total cost, maximizing customer services level, and maximizing the quality of end-product, are considered, simultaneously. Several constraints such as quantity of production, available time, work force levels, inventory levels, backordering levels, machine capacity, warehouse space and available budget are also considered. Some parameters of the proposed model are assumed to be qualitative and modeled using fuzzy sets. Then, a fuzzy goal programming approach is proposed to solve the model. The proposed approach is applied on a real-world industrial case study of a color and resin production company called Teiph-Saipa. The approach is coded using LINGO software. The efficacy and applicability of the proposed approach are illustrated in the case study. The results of proposed approach are compared with those of the existing experimental methods used in the company. The relative dominance of the proposed approach is revealed in comparison with the experimental method. Finally, a data dictionary, including the way of gathering data for running the model, is proposed in order to facilitate the re-implementation of the model for future development and case studies.

A Non Face-to-Face Private Loan Screening Model Employing the Ratings Approach of AHP : Development and Validation (AHP의 절대적 측정을 이용한 비대면 개인대출심사모형의 개발)

  • Min, Jae H.;Kim, Woosub
    • Korean Management Science Review
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    • v.33 no.3
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    • pp.65-87
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    • 2016
  • Being the FinTech technologies rapidly developed, the non face-to-face private loan market is also growing dramatically. While the real-world interests in this market are keen, the empirical studies on the issue are few compared to its prospective impact on credit loan market. This paper suggests a credit scoring model for the non face-to-face private loan employing the ratings approach (the absolute measurement method) of AHP. Analyzing a sample of data consisting of 460,000 transaction records over an 8-year period in the United States, we develop a scoring model for the non face-to-face private loan screening, and validate the model for the practical usage. Conducting sensitivity analysis, we suggest customized cut-off points for the loan execution to suit each individual loan institution's need.

Intervention analysis for spread of COVID-19 in South Korea using SIR model (SIR 모형을 이용한 한국의 코로나19 확산에 대한 개입 효과 분석)

  • Cho, Sumin;Kim, Jaejik
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.34 no.3
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    • pp.477-489
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    • 2021
  • COVID-19 has spread seriously around the world in 2020 and it is still significantly affecting our whole daily life. Currently, the whole world is still undergoing the pandemic and South Korea is no exception to it. During the pandemic, South Korea had several events that prevented or accelerated its spread. To establish the prevention policies for infectious diseases, it is very important to evaluate the intervention effect of such events. The susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model is often used to describe the dynamic behavior of the spread of infectious diseases through ordinary differential equations. However, the SIR model is a deterministic model without considering the uncertainty of observed data. To consider the uncertainty in the SIR model, the Bayesian approach can be employed, and this approach allows us to evaluate the intervention effects by time-varying functions of the infection rate in the SIR model. In this study, we describe the time trend of the spread of COVID-19 in South Korea and investigate the intervention effects for the events using the stochastic SIR model based on the Bayesian approach.

New IT Service Business Model for Silver Users (IT서비스 기반의 실버IT 비즈니스 모델 연구)

  • Kim, Tai-Gyu;Lee, Joo-Hwan
    • Journal of Information Technology Services
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    • v.8 no.4
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    • pp.187-199
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    • 2009
  • Content services for silver users on the ubiquitous technologies are getting attention as a new business model, monitoring users in real-time on the real-world and/or cyber-world. A lot of business and service model have been developed to apply silver or elder user. This study explained a state-of-the-art silver IT service to innovative services for users, ranging from home and finance to support for healthcare and living. Due to the variation of subtle terminologies, this study was conducted to restructure an adaptive terminology including some definitions. Current silver IT service model has been evaluated from the technical, functional, and business analyst, and its suitability has also been expressed in a proposed model and service. The purpose of this study was to propose a systematic approach of new IT service business model for silver users. A proposed model was described to explain the feasibility of the silver IT industry.