• 품질경영학회지
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• 제27권4호
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• pp.153-166
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• 1999

In this paper, we address the Bayesian hypotheses testing for the shape parameter of weibull model. In Bayesian testing problem, conventional Bayes factors can not typically accommodate the use of noninformative priors which are improper and are defined only up to arbitrary constants. To overcome such problem, we use the recently proposed hypotheses testing criterion called the intrinsic Bayes factor. We derive the arithmetic and median intrinsic Bayes factors and use these results to analyze real data sets.

• 한국신뢰성학회지:신뢰성응용연구
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• 제12권3호
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• pp.139-152
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• 2012

Successive and simultaneous sudden death tests are compared with the complete and Type II censored samples in terms of expected test duration and Total Time on Test(TTT) subject to the same number of failures in order to maintain the equal statistical precision under Weibull lifetime distribution with known shape parameter. Also, two sudden death tests under a proposed cost model are discussed and a numerical example is provided to illustrate the use of the proposed cost model.

• 한국신뢰성학회지:신뢰성응용연구
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• 제1권2호
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• pp.139-148
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• 2001

We are concerned in the estimation of lifetime distribution of a component having a few observed failure data and we demonstrate that we can use the maximum likelihood estimation utilizing the censored data when the number of components in use is quite large. Weibull distribution is assumed for the lifetime and a simple estimation procedure is introduced. We also propose the method of determining the optimal number of spares required for a specified period without introducing cost functions. The proposed methods are applied to the photon stop and the water-cooled flange which are major components in Pohang Light Source.

• 한국신뢰성학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국신뢰성학회 2000년도 춘계학술대회 발표논문집
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• pp.201-208
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• 2000

We are concerned in the estimation of lifetime distribution of a component having a few observed failure data and we demonstrate that we can use the maximum likelihood estimation utilizing the censored data when the number of components in use is quite large. Weibull distribution is assumed fur the lifetime and a simple estimation procedure is introduced. We also propose the method of determining the optimal number of spares required for a specified period without introducing cost functions. The proposed methods are applied to the photon stop and the water-cooled flange which are major components in Pohang Light Source.

• International Journal of Safety
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• 제1권1호
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• pp.36-42
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• 2002

This paper is aimed at predicting the life of rubber insulating gloves under normal operating stresses from relatively rapid test performed at higher stresses. Specimens of rubber insulating gloves are subject to multiple stress conditions, i.e. combined electrical and thermal stresses. Two modes of electrical stress, step voltage stress and constant voltage stress are used in specimen aging. There are two types of test for electrical stress in this experiment: the one is Breakdown Voltage (BDV) test under step voltage stress and thermal stress and the other is lifetime test under constant voltage stress and temperature stress. The ac breakdown voltage defined as the break-down point of insulation that leakage current excesses a limit value, l0mA in this experiment, is determined. Because the very high variability of aging data requires the application of statistical model, Weibull distribution is used to represent the failure times as the straight line on Weibull probability paper. Weibull parameters are deter-mined by three statistical methods i.e. maximum likelihood method, graphical method and least squares method, which employ SAS package, Weibull probability paper and FORTRAN, respectively. Two chosen models for predicting the life under simultaneous electrical and thermal stresses are inverse power model and exponential model. And the constants of life equation for multistress aging are calculated using numerical method, such as Gauss Jordan method etc.. The completion of life equation enables to estimate the life at normal stress based on the data collected from accelerated aging test. Also the comparison of the calculated lifetimes between the inverse power model and the exponential model is carried out. And the lifetimes calculated by three statistical methods with lower voltage than test voltage are compared. The results obtained from the suggested experimental method are presented and discussed.

• 한국인터넷방송통신학회논문지
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• 제16권1호
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• pp.227-232
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• 2016

전력 수요량은 매년 증가추세에 있으며, 발전소에서 동작하는 모든 장비들과 대용량의 장거리 전력수송을 위한 장비들은 전력 소비자들이 기대하는 바 신뢰할 수 있는 수준에서 완전한 상태로 동작하여야 한다. 일반적으로, 고전력 송전을 위하여 사용되고 있는 케이블은 동작수명이 30년 이라고 제작 시에 선언된다. 케이블은 동작을 시작함과 동시에 성능이 악화되는 열화과정(케이블의 전기적 특성이 악화되는)이 시작된다. 열화로 인한 신뢰성의 손상이 발생함에도 불구하고, 동작상태의 신뢰성을 진단을 받지 않았기 때문에, 언제 불의의 사고를 초래할지 예측을 할 수 없을 만큼 위험한 상태에서 동작을 하고 있는 실정이다. 우리는 케이블의 열화과정을 진단하기 위하여 진단 장비를 제작하였고, 충청남도 태안의 (주)서부발전에 설치하여 시운전 하고 있는 중이다. 우리는 측정장비를 이용하여 추출한 데이터를 얻은 결과를 시간에 따라 변동 하는 그래프로 표시하여 분석한 특성을 이전 논문들에서 제시하였다. 이 논문에서는 이전 논문에서의 측정값으로 나타낸 그래프가 Weibull 확률분포에 의한 열화 이론과 일치하는 지를 확인하고, 결과를 제시한다.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• 제75권4호
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• pp.455-464
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• 2020

Reinforcement corrosion is one of the major problems in the durability of reinforced concrete structures exposed to aggressive environments. Deterioration caused by reinforcement corrosion reduces the durability and the safety margin of concrete structures, causing excessive costs in managing these structures safely. This paper aims to investigate the effects of reinforcement corrosion on the load bearing capacity deterioration of the corroded reinforced concrete structures. A new analytical method is proposed to predict the crack growth of cover concrete and evaluate the residual strength of concrete structures with corroded reinforcement failing in bond. The structural performance indicators, such as concrete crack growth and flexural strength deterioration rate, are assumed to be a stochastic process for lifetime distribution modelling of structural performance deterioration over time during the life cycle. The Weibull life evolution model is employed for analysing lifetime reliability and estimating remaining useful life of the corroded concrete structures. The results for the worked example show that the proposed approach can provide a reliable method for lifetime performance assessment of the corroded reinforced concrete structures.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제7권2호
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• pp.263-272
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• 1996

임의의 기계에 대한 수명의 분포는 와이블분포를 하는 경우가 흔하다. 그리고 현실적으로 기계의 수명시간을 검정할 때, 시험시간및 여러 환경적인 제약에 의하여 표본으로 주어진 기계의 수명을 모두 관측하기는 어렵다. 그래서, 본 연구에서는 임의 중단모형 하에서 와이블분포의 모수를 최소제곱법(least squares method)을 이용하여 추정하고 기존의 최대우도추정량(maximum likelihood estimates)과 효율성의 측면에서 비교하고자 한다.

• 한국신뢰성학회지:신뢰성응용연구
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• 제13권2호
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• pp.87-98
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• 2013

Accelerated degradation tests (ADTs) measuring failure-related degradation characteristic at the accelerated condition are widely used to assess the reliability of highly reliable products. Often, however, little degradation could be observed even in single-stress ADTs due to the high reliability of test unit, and as a result poor estimate of the reliability may be obtained. ADTs with multiple stress variables can be employed to overcome such difficulties. In this paper, optimal ADT plans with two stress variables are developed assuming that the degradation characteristic follows Weibull distribution by determining the stress levels, the proportion of test units allocated to each stress level such that the asymptotic variance of the maximum likelihood estimator of the q-th quantile of the lifetime distribution at the use condition is minimized.

• 한국신뢰성학회지:신뢰성응용연구
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• 제17권2호
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• pp.112-121
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• 2017

Purpose: The most previous works on designing accelerated life tests (ALTs) are focused on the application of a single stress. Because of the difficulty to obtain the sufficient information in a reasonable duration using single stress only, there is needed in practice to use multiple-stress ALTs frequently. This paper presents new practical plans with two stresses for Weibull distribution. Methods: The four-level practical plans based on rectangle test region are proposed and compared with the corresponding three-level statistically optimal plans. Sensitivity analyses for assumed design parameters and life-stress relationship are conducted. Results: A procedure to choose practical ALT plans is illustrated with a numerical example and guidelines for planning two-stress ALTs are provided. Conclusion: The proposed two-stress ALT plans on practical constraints to assess a quantile of Weibull lifetime distribution at the use condition are efficient and robust.