• Atmosphere
• /
• v.20 no.3
• /
• pp.287-306
• /
• 2010

An ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) with Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model is applied for Typhoon Wukong (200610) to investigate the performance of ensemble forecasts depending on experimental configurations of the EnKF. In addition, the ensemble sensitivity analysis is applied to the forecast and analysis ensembles generated in EnKF, to investigate the possibility of using the ensemble sensitivity analysis as the adaptive observation guidance. Various experimental configurations are tested by changing model error, ensemble size, assimilation time window, covariance relaxation, and covariance localization in EnKF. First of all, experiments using different physical parameterization scheme for each ensemble member show less root mean square error compared to those using single physics for all the forecast ensemble members, which implies that considering the model error is beneficial to get better forecasts. A larger number of ensembles are also beneficial than a smaller number of ensembles. For the assimilation time window, the experiment using less frequent window shows better results than that using more frequent window, which is associated with the availability of observational data in this study. Therefore, incorporating model error, larger ensemble size, and less frequent assimilation window into the EnKF is beneficial to get better prediction of Typhoon Wukong (200610). The covariance relaxation and localization are relatively less beneficial to the forecasts compared to those factors mentioned above. The ensemble sensitivity analysis shows that the sensitive regions for adaptive observations can be determined by the sensitivity of the forecast measure of interest to the initial ensembles. In addition, the sensitivities calculated by the ensemble sensitivity analysis can be explained by dynamical relationships established among wind, temperature, and pressure.

• Atmosphere
• /
• v.28 no.2
• /
• pp.211-222
• /
• 2018

Cloud droplet activation process is well described by $K{\ddot{o}}hler$ theory and several parameterizations based on $K{\ddot{o}}hler$ theory are used in a wide range of models to represent this process. Here, we test the two different method of calculating the solute effect in the $K{\ddot{o}}hler$ equation, i.e., osmotic coefficient method (OSM) and ${\kappa}-K{\ddot{o}}hler$ method (KK). To do that, each method is implemented in the cloud droplet activation parameterization module of WRF-CHEM (Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry) model. It is assumed that aerosols are composed of five major components (i.e., sulfate, organic matter, black carbon, mineral dust, and sea salt). Both methods calculate similar representative hygroscopicity parameter values of 0.2~0.3 over the land, and 0.6~0.7 over the ocean, which are close to estimated values in previous studies. Simulated precipitation, and meteorological variables (i.e., specific heat and temperature) show good agreement with reanalysis. Spatial patterns of precipitation and liquid water path from model results and satellite data show similarity in general, but on regional scale spatial patterns and intensity show some discrepancy. However, meteorological variables, precipitation, and liquid water path do not show significant differences between OSM and KK simulations. So we suggest that the relatively simple KK method can be a good alternative to the OSM method that requires various information of density, molecular weight and dissociation number of each individual species in calculating the solute effect.

• Atmosphere
• /
• v.17 no.1
• /
• pp.69-86
• /
• 2007

The characteristics of the dual-Doppler wind retrieval method based on a three dimensional variational (3DVAR) conception were investigated from the following four points of view; the sensitivity of the number of iteration, the effect of the weak constraint term, the effect of the smoothness term, and the sensitivity of the error mixing ratio of the radial velocities. In the experiment, the radial velocities relative to the Gosan and Jindo radar sites of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) were calculated from the forecasting of the WRF (Weather Research and Forecast; Skamarock, 2004) model at 1330 UTC 30 June 2006, which is the one and half hour forecast from the initial time, 1200 UTC on that day. The results showed that the retrieval performance of the horizontal wind field was robust, but that of the vertical wind was sensitive to the external conditions, such as iteration number and the on/off of the weak constraint term. The sensitivity of error mixing ratio was so large that even the horizontal wind retrieval efficiency was reduced a lot. But the sensitivity of the smooth term was not so large. When we applied this method to the real mesoscale convective system (MCS) between the Gosan and Jindo radar pair at 1430 UTC 30 June 2006, the wind structure of the convective cells in the MCS was consistently retrieved relative to the reflectivity factor structure. By comparing the vertical wind structure of this case with that of 10 minutes after, 1440 UTC 30 June 2006, we got the physical consistency of our method.

• Journal of Korean Society for Geospatial Information Science
• /
• v.19 no.4
• /
• pp.35-45
• /
• 2011

The purpose of this study is visualizing climate change contents from Weather Research and Forecasting model and providing useful tool to anyone who want to use them for communication and actual movement. As a results, we have built a process and user interface for publishing Arrow KML, BWS KML, and DI KML. Arrow KML provide wind rose service and wind attribute information for each arrow. BWS KML provide a wind power index and DI KML provide a thermal comfort. All KML contents are more reliable because those are visualized from the scientifically verified climate change prediction model. Further study will focus on searching for climate change contents mining and useful contents design for wide range of climate change mitigation/adaptation activity.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
• /
• v.43 no.2
• /
• pp.265-282
• /
• 2022

This study analyzes the impact of long-range transport of biomass burning emissions from northeastern China on the concentration of particulate matter of diameter less than 10 ㎛ (PM₁₀) in Korea using the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem). Korea was impacted by anthropogenic emissions from eastern China, dust storms from northern China and Mongolia, and biomass burning emissions from northeast China between April 4-and 7, 2020. The contributions of long-range PM₁₀ transport were calculated by separating biomass burning emissions from mixed air pollutants with anthropogenic emissions and dust storms using the zeroing-out method. Further, the radiation energy budget over land and sea around the Korean Peninsula was analyzed according to the distribution of biomass burning emissions. Based on the WRF-Chem simulation during April 5-6, 2020, the contribution of long-range transport of biomass burning emissions was calculated as 60% of the daily PM₁₀ average in Korea. The net heat flux around the Korean Peninsula was in a negative phase due to the influence of the large-scale biomass burning emissions. However, the contribution of biomass burning emissions was analyzed to be <45% during April 7-8, 2020, when the anthropogenic emissions from eastern China were added to biomass burning emissions, and PM₁₀ concentration increased compared with the concentration recorded during April 5-6, 2020 in Korea. Furthermore, the net heat flux around the Korean Peninsula increased to a positive phase with the decreasing influence of biomass burning emissions.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
• /
• v.26 no.3
• /
• pp.209-218
• /
• 2024

The National Institute of Agricultural Sciences (NAS) operates in-house long-range climate forecasting system to support the agricultural use of climate forecast data. This system, developed through collaborative research with Pusan National University, is based on the PNU/RDA Coupled General Circulation Model (CGCM) and includes the regional climate model WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting). It generates detailed climate forecast data for periods ranging from 1 to 6 months, covering 20 key variables such as daily maximum, minimum, and average temperatures, precipitation, and agricultural meteorological elements like solar radiation, soil moisture, and ground temperature-factors essential for agricultural forecasting. The data are provided at a daily temporal resolution with a spatial resolution of a 5km grid, which can be used in point form (interpolated) or averaged across administrative regions. The system's seasonal temperature and precipitation forecasts align closely with observed climatological data, accurately reflecting spatial and topographical influences, confirming its reliability. These long-range forecasts from NAS are expected to offer valuable insights for agricultural planning and decision-making. The detailed forecast data can be accessed through the Climate Change Assessment Division of NAS.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
• /
• v.17 no.4
• /
• pp.384-398
• /
• 2015

In this paper, the high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting/Noah-MultiParameterization (WRF/Noah-MP) modeling system is configured for the Cheongmicheon Farmland site in Korea (CFK), and its performance in land and atmospheric simulation is evaluated using the observed data at CFK during the 2014 special observation period (21 August-10 September). In order to explore the usefulness of turning on Noah-MP dynamic vegetation in midterm simulations of surface and atmospheric variables, two numerical experiments are conducted without dynamic vegetation and with dynamic vegetation (referred to as CTL and DVG experiments, respectively). The main results are as following. 1) CTL showed a tendency of overestimating daytime net shortwave radiation, thereby surface heat fluxes and Bowen ratio. The CTL experiment showed reasonable magnitudes and timing of air temperature at 2 m and 10 m; especially the small error in simulating minimum air temperature showed high potential for predicting frost and leaf wetness duration. The CTL experiment overestimated 10-m wind and precipitation, but the beginning and ending time of precipitation were well captured. 2) When the dynamic vegetation was turned on, the WRF/Noah-MP system showed more realistic values of leaf area index (LAI), net shortwave radiation, surface heat fluxes, Bowen ratio, air temperature, wind and precipitation. The DVG experiment, where LAI is a prognostic variable, produced larger LAI than CTL, and the larger LAI showed better agreement with the observed. The simulated Bowen ratio got closer to the observed ratio, indicating reasonable surface energy partition. The DVG experiment showed patterns similar to CTL, with differences for maximum air temperature. Both experiments showed faster rising of 10-m air temperature during the morning growth hours, presumably due to the rapid growth of daytime mixed layers in the Yonsei University (YSU) boundary layer scheme. The DVG experiment decreased errors in simulating 10-m wind and precipitation. 3) As horizontal resolution increases, the models did not show practical improvement in simulation performance for surface fluxes, air temperature, wind and precipitation, and required three-dimensional observation for more agricultural land spots as well as consistency in model topography and land cover data.

• Atmosphere
• /
• v.19 no.4
• /
• pp.345-370
• /
• 2009

Numerical experiments using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model were done to identify the role of the mountain ranges in the northern part of the Peninsula (referred as "the northern mountain complex"), in the occurrence of two heavy snowfall events over the Yeongdong region on 7-8 December 2002 and 20-21 January 2008. To this end, control simulations with the topography of the northern mountain complex and other simulations without the topography of the mountain complex were performed. It was revealed that the amount of snowfall over the Yeongdong region from the control simulation much more exceeded that of the simulation without the topography of the mountain complex. This increase of the snowfall amount over the Yeongdong region can be explained as follows: As the upstream flow approached the northern mountain complex, it deflected around the northern mountain complex due to the blocking effect of the mountains with a low Froude number less than ~0.16. This lead to the strengthening of northeasterly over the East Sea and over the Yeongdong region. The strong northeasterly is accompanied with much more snowfall over the Yeongdong region by intensifying air-mass modification over the sea and the orographic effect of the Taeback mountains. Thus, it was concluded that the topography of the northern mountain complex is one of the main factors in determining the distribution and amount of precipitation in the Yeongdong region when there is an expansion of the Siberian High toward the East Sea.

• Atmosphere
• /
• v.31 no.2
• /
• pp.199-214
• /
• 2021

A record-breaking high surface air temperature of 41.0℃ was observed on 1 August 2018 at Hongcheon, South Korea. In this study, to quantitatively determine the formation mechanism of this extremely high surface air temperature, particularly considering the contributions of the foehn and the foehnlike wind, observational data from Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model were utilized. In the backward trajectory analysis, trajectories of 100 air parcels were released from the surface over Hongcheon at 1600 LST on 1 August 2018. Among them, the 47 trajectories (38 trajectories) are tracked back above (below) heights of 1.4 km above mean sea level at 0900 LST 31 July 2018 and are defined as upper (lower) routes. Lagrangian energy budget analysis shows that for the upper routes, adiabatic heating (11.886 × 10³ J kg^-1) accounts for about 77% of the increase in the thermal energy transfer to the air parcels, while the rest (23%) is diabatic heating (3.650 × 10³ J kg^-1). On the other hand, for the lower routes, adiabatic heating (6.111 × 10³ J kg^-1) accounts for about 49% of the increase, the rest (51%) being diabatic heating (6.295 × 10³ J kg^-1). Even though the contribution of the diabatic heating to the increase in the air temperature rather varies according to the routes, the contribution of the diabatic heating should be considered. The diabatic heating is caused by direct heating associated with surface sensible heat flux and heating associated with the turbulent mixing. This mechanism is the Type 4 foehn described in Takane and Kusaka (2011). It is concluded that Type 4 foehn wind occurs and plays an important role in the extreme event on 1 August 2018.

• Atmosphere
• /
• v.34 no.2
• /
• pp.153-176
• /
• 2024

At 0843 UTC 30 May 2021, a commercial aircraft encountered severe turbulence at z = 11.5 km associated with the rapid development of Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) in the Gyeonggi Bay of Korea. To investigate the generation mechanisms of Near-Cloud Turbulence (NCT) near the MCS, Weather Research and Forecasting model was used to reproduce key features at multiple-scales with four nested domains (the finest ∆x = 0.2 km) and 112 hybrid vertical layers. Simulated subgrid-scale turbulent kinetic energy (SGS TKE) was located in three different regions of the MCS. First, the simulated NCT with non-zero SGS TKE at z = 11.5 km at 0835 UTC was collocated with the reported NCT. Cloud-induced flow deformation and entrainment process on the downstream of the overshooting top triggered convective instability and subsequent SGS TKE. Second, at z = 16.5 km at 0820 UTC, the localized SGS TKE was found 4 km above the overshooting cloud top. It was attributed to breaking down of vertically propagating convectively-induced gravity wave at background critical level. Lastly, SGS TKE was simulated at z = 11.5 km at 0930 UTC during the dissipating stage of MCS. Upper-level anticyclonic outflow of MCS intensified the environmental westerlies, developing strong vertical wind shear on the northeastern quadrant of the dissipating MCS. Three different generation mechanisms suggest the avoidance guidance for the possible NCT events near the entire period of the MCS in the heavy air traffic area around Incheon International Airport in Korea.