• Title/Summary/Keyword: Uncertainty estimation

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Acoustical backscattering strength characteristics and density estimates of Japanese common squid distributed in Yellow Sea (황해에 분포하는 살오징어의 음향산란강도 특성 및 분포밀도 추정)

  • Lee, Kyoung-Hoon;Choi, Jung-Hwa;Shin, Jong-Keun;Chang, Dae-Soo;Park, Seong-Wook
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Fisheries and Ocean Technology
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    • v.45 no.3
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    • pp.157-164
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    • 2009
  • Due to change of various marine environments according to seawater temperature rising, Japanese common squid(Todarodes pacificus), which was distributed in East Sea, was recently caught in Yellow Sea during a summer season from 2006. The fishery resources density research was carried out in Korea-China Provisional Water Zone using trawl fishing gear and acoustics in National Fisheries Research & Development Institute in Korea. This paper showed the analysis on the acoustical backscattering strength by two frequencies(38kHz, 120kHz) for Japanese common squid by acoustical scattering theoretical model based on size distribution for survey period, and estimate the density distribution for squid s integrated layer which was extracted from any scatterers distributed in water column using two frequency difference method which has been used to distinguish fish shoals or specific target scatterers from sound scattering layer which is composed of various zooplankton. Furthermore, the entire range of their density estimation was suggested using by Monte Carlo simulation under considering each uncertainty such as size distributions or swimming angle and so on in survey area.

Estimating Maintenance Cost by Actual Database Based on Operation in Sewage Treatment Plant (하수처리장 실적데이터베이스를 활용한 유지관리비용 예측)

  • Lee, Tai-Sik;Kwak, Dong-Koo
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.10 no.10
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    • pp.2803-2809
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    • 2009
  • For a successful construction project not only construction engineering and project management technology but also economic evaluation technique is required. Design and construction technologies are necessary to receive a project order. However, construction management technology which can be apply from the project initial phase to the project operation and management phase is required to create a benefit from the project. Construction management technology is one of the effective factors for project success. Economical and efficient cost management from the planning phase influences the project success. This study investigated cost flow and cost factors of domestic Sewage Treatment Plant project for systematic analysis of cost items following the entire project phase. Particularly, data modeling based on domestic Sewage Treatment Equipment maintenance cost DB was performed, and maintenance cost estimation trend line is suggested using Monte carlo Simulation Method to decrease uncertainty of actual results DB and for feasibility study. Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society. The Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society. The Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society. The Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society.

Development of Estimation Methods of Pollutant Emissions from Railroad Diesel Rolling Stocks (철도디젤차량에서 배출되는 오염물질의 배출량 산정방법 개발)

  • 박덕신;김동술
    • Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.539-553
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    • 2004
  • Up to the present time, many methods to estimate emissions from a particular diesel engines have wholly depended on the quantity of diesel fuel consumed. Then, the recommended emission factors were normalized by fuel consumption, and further total activity was estimated by the total fuel consumed. One of main purposes in the study is newly to develop emission factors for the railroad diesel rolling stock (RDRS) and to estimate a total amount of major gaseous pollutants from the RDRS in Korea. Prior to develop a Korean mode emission factor. the emission factor from the USEPA was simply applied for comparative studies. When applying the USEPA emission factors, total exhaust emissions from the RDRS in Korea were estimated by 28,117tons of NOx, 2,832.3tons of CO, and 1,237.5tons of HC, etc in 2001. In this study, a emission factor for the RDRS, so called the KoRail mode (the Korean Railroad mode) has been developed on the basis of analyzing the driving pattern of the Gyeongbu-Line especially for the line-haul mode. Explicitly to make the site specific emission factors, many uncertainty problems concerning weighting factors for each power mode, limited emission test, incomplete data for RDRS, and other important input parameters were extensively examined. Total exhaust emissions by KoRail mode in Korea were estimated by 10,960tons of NOx, and 4,622tons of CO, and so on in the year of 2001. The emissions estimated by the USEPA mode were 2.6 times higher for NOx, and 1.6 times lower for CO than those by the KoRail mode. As a conclusion, based on the emission calculated from both the USEPA mode and the KoRail mode, the RDRS is considered as one of the significant mobile sources for major gaseous pollutants and thus management plans an(1 control strategies for the RDRS must be established to improve air quality near future in Korea.

Estimation of Vehicle Kilometers Travelled and Air Pollution Emission from Motorcycles (이륜차의 일 주행거리조사와 대기오염 배출량 추정)

  • Jang, Young-Kee;Kim, Jeong;Kim, Pil-Su;Shin, Yong-Il;Kim, Woon-Soo;Choi, Yu-Jin
    • Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.48-56
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    • 2010
  • Recently it has reported that the motorcycle is a major source of air pollution in urban area by many studies. But the air pollution emission from motorcycle has been high uncertainty due investigation of a lack of activity data and emission factors in Korea. So in this study, the population of moped and VKT (Vehicle kilometers travelled) of motorcycle are investigated for calculation of the emission from this source categories. As the results, the population of moped is estimated as about 400, 000 and corresponded as 23% of registrated motorcycle which is larger than 50 cc in engine displacement. And it is found that the VKT of moped and motorcycle are investigated as 19.1 km/day and 32.3 km/day. Annual air pollution emission from motorcycle and moped are estimated by investigated VKT and updated emission factors. The nationwide emissions of PM_{10}, CO, $NO_x$, VOC are calculated as 910 ton/yr, 208, 198 ton/yr, 3, 032 ton/yr and 25, 575 ton/yr in 2008. The contribution ratio of CO, VOC emission from these sources are estimated as 29%, 24% in on-road transport sector and it is confirmed that motorcycle and moped are major air pollution sources in urban area.

Budget Estimation Problem for Capacity Enhancement based on Various Performance Criteria (다중 평가지표에 기반한 도로용량 증대 소요예산 추정)

  • Kim, Ju-Young;Lee, Sang-Min;Cho, Chong-Suk
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.26 no.5
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    • pp.175-184
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    • 2008
  • Uncertainties are unavoidable in engineering applications. In this paper we propose an alpha reliable multi-variable network design problem under demand uncertainty. In order to decide the optimal capacity enhancement, three performance measures based on 3E(Efficiency, Equity, and Environmental) are considered. The objective is to minimize the total budget required to satisfy alpha reliability constraint of total travel time, equity ratio, and total emission, while considering the route choice behavior of network users. The problem is formulated as the chance-constrained model for application of alpha confidence level and solved as a lexicographic optimization problem to consider the multi-variable. A simulation-based genetic algorithm procedure is developed to solve this complex network design problem(NDP). A simple numerical example ispresented to illustrate the features of the proposed NDP model.

Joint inversion of receiver function and surface-wave phase velocity for estimation of shear-wave velocity of sedimentary layers (퇴적층들의 전단파 속도 평가를 위한 수신함수와 표면파 위상 속도의 통합 역산)

  • Kurose, Takeshi;Yamanaka, Hiroaki
    • Geophysics and Geophysical Exploration
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.93-101
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    • 2006
  • In this study, we propose a joint inversion method, using genetic algorithms, to determine the shear-wave velocity structure of deep sedimentary layers from receiver functions and surface-wave phase velocity. Numerical experiments with synthetic data indicate that the proposed method can avoid the trade-off between shear-wave velocity and thickness that arises when inverting the receiver function only, and the uncertainty in deep structure from surface-wave phase velocity inversion alone. We apply the method to receiver functions obtained from earthquake records with epicentral distances of about 100 km, and Rayleigh-wave phase velocities obtained from a microtremor array survey in the Kanto Plain, Japan. The estimated subsurface structure is in good agreement with the previous results of seismic refraction surveys and deep borehole data.

Estimation of creep coefficient in reinforced concrete beam (RC 빔 부재에서 크리프 계수 추정)

  • Park, Jong-Bum;Cho, Jae-Yeol;Park, Bong-Sik
    • Proceedings of the Korea Concrete Institute Conference
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    • 2008.11a
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    • pp.245-248
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    • 2008
  • Concrete structures show time-dependent behavior due to creep and shrinkage of concrete and the uncertainties of creep and shrinkage are very huge. To reduce uncertainties of creep and shrinkage, it is substantially necessary to perform the long-term creep and shrinkage tests, but actual construction process doesn't allow it due to the limited time. Even though the tests are performed in laboratory, the values obtained from the tests could be different from the actual values in construction site because of the different environment between the laboratory and construction site and the model uncertainty itself. It is difficult to predict the long-term behaviors of concrete structures properly if the assumed creep coefficient obtained from Codes or the results of experiments is different from the real characteristics of concrete creep. In this study, for predicting the long-term behavior, the creep coefficients in reinforced concrete beams are estimated using creep sensitivity analysis from the measured deflections with time. And estimated creep coefficients using creep models of ACI Committee 209 and CEB-FIP MC90 are compared.

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Motion Analysis Using Competitive Learning Neural Network and Fuzzy Reasoning (경쟁학습 신경망과 퍼지추론법을 이용한 움직임 분석)

  • 이주한;오경환
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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    • v.5 no.3
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    • pp.117-127
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    • 1995
  • In this paper, we suggest a motion analysis method using ART-I1 competitive learning neural network and fuzzy reasoning by matching the same objects through the consecutive image sequence. we use the size and mean intensity of the region obtained from image segmentation for the region matching by the region and use a ART-I1 competitive learning neural network wh~ch has a learning ability to reflect the topology of the input patterns in order to select characteristic points to describe the shape of a region. Motion vectors for each regions are obtained by matching selected characteristic points. However, the two dimensional image, the projection of the the three dimensional real world, produces fuzziness in motion analysis due to its incompleteness by nature and the error from image segmentation used for extracting information about objects. Therefore, the belief degrees for each regions are calculated using fuzzy reasoning to l-nanipulate uncertainty in motion estimation.

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A Study on the Nutritional Status of the Children and the Household Food and Nutrients Consumption Level in Rural Farm Household (농촌가구의 식품 및 영양소 섭취수준과 가구내 어린이의 건강상태에 대하여)

  • Kim, Young-Hyun;Kim, Young-Ok
    • Journal of agricultural medicine and community health
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.5-15
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    • 1985
  • It has been a long tradition in the field of nutrition that the degree of malnutrition in a community used to be estimated by the degree of the adequacy of nutrients consumption in the households. The adequacy of nutrient consumption in the households then used to be applied to estimate the degree of malnutrition of the children. Such a practice is theoretically acceptable in the community where the food sharing within the household is individual serving style such as in European countries. However, the community where the dietary habit in the household is communal such as in Korea, the estimation of single serving portion from household consumption is quite uncertain. Because of such an uncertainty this study is intended to test the validity of the household food consumption level as an indication of nutritional status of the children in the rural farm households in Korea. The date from the household consumption survey in 1982 by the Korean Rural Nutrition Institute has been used for the analysis of food consumption levels of the households. The survey on the nutritional status of children of 127 preschool children from 78 farm households, has been conducted during May 1983. The nutritional status of the children has been directly measured by weight, height, skinfold thickness, haemoglobin, haematocrit and morbidity of influenza and diarrhoea. The analysis has been conducted to distinguish the differences in prevalence of malnutrition of children from the estimated of household consumption and that of from the direct measurement of nutritional status of children. The results show that the degree of malnutrition of the estimated by the household consumption level has not related with the prevalence of malnutrition by the direct measures of nutritional status of the children. Therefore, the validity of household consumption level as an indication of nutrional status in a same household is quite uncertain for the population studied.

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Estimation of Mass Discrimination Factor for a Wide Range of m/z by Argon Artificial Isotope Mixtures and NF3 Gas

  • Min, Deullae;Lee, Jin Bok;Lee, Christopher;Lee, Dong Soo;Kim, Jin Seog
    • Bulletin of the Korean Chemical Society
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    • v.35 no.8
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    • pp.2403-2409
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    • 2014
  • Absolute isotope ratio is a critical constituent in determination of atomic weight. To measure the absolute isotope ratio using a mass spectrometer, mass discrimination factor, $f_{MD}$, is needed to convert measured isotope ratio to real isotope ratio of gas molecules. If the $f_{MD}$ could be predicted, absolute isotope ratio of a chemical species would be measureable in absence of its enriched isotope pure materials or isotope references. This work employed gravimetrically prepared isotope mixtures of argon (Ar) to obtain $f_{MD}$ at m/z of 40 in the magnetic sector type gas mass spectrometer (gas/MS). Besides, we compare the nitrogen isotope ratio of nitrogen trifluoride ($NF_3$) with that of nitrogen molecule ($N_2$) decomposed from the same $NF_3$ thermally in order to identify the difference of $f_{MD}$ values in extensive m/z region from 28 to 71. Our result shows that $f_{MD}$ at m/z 40 was $-0.044%{\pm}0.017%$ (k = 1) from measurement of Ar artificial isotope mixtures. The $f_{MD}$ difference in the range of m/z from 28 to 71 is observed $-0.12%{\pm}0.14%$ from $NF_3$ and $N_2$. From combination of this work and reported $f_{MD}$ values by another team, IRMM, if $f_{MD}$ of $-0.16%{\pm}0.14%$ is applied to isotope ratio measurement from $N_2$ to $SF_6$, we can determine absolute isotope ratio within relative uncertainty of 0.2 %.