• 제목/요약/키워드: Uncertain

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The Effect of Uncertain Information on Supply Chain Performance in a Beer Distribution Game-A Case of Meterological Forecast Information (불확실성 정보가 맥주배송게임 기반의 공급사슬 수행도에 미치는 영향 평가 : 기상정보 사례를 중심으로)

  • Lee, Ki-Kwang;Kim, In-Gyum;Ko, Kwang-Kun
    • Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.139-158
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    • 2007
  • Information sharing is key to effective supply chain management. In reality, however, it is impossible to get perfect information. Accordingly, only uncertain information can be accessed in business environment, and thus it is important to deal with the uncertainties of information in managing supply chains. This study adopts meteorological forecast as a typical uncertain information. The meteorological events may affect the demands for various weather-sensitive goods, such as beer, ices, clothes, electricity etc. In this study, a beer distribution game is modified by introducing meterological forecast information provided in a probabilistic format. The behavior patterns of the modified beer supply chains are investigated. for two conditions using the weather forecast with or without an information sharing. A value score is introduced to generalize the well-known performance measures employed in the study of supply chains, i.e.. inventory, backlog, and deviation of orders. The simulation result showed that meterological forecast information used in an information sharing environment was more effective than without information sharing, which emphasizes the synergy of uncertain information added to the information sharing environment.

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Optimal Pricing Policy under Uncertain Product Lifetimes (불확실한 제품 수명주기를 고려한 최적가격결정 모형에 관한 연구)

  • 이훈영;주기인
    • Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.23-31
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    • 2000
  • Many studies in marketing and economics have attempted to model price and sales path under the dynamic diffusion process. Most of these models have been based on a fixed product lifetime. The current business climate requiring intensive development of new products however affects the diffusion of new products and their lifetime. Many products have not enjoyed the expected life cycle at the launching stage due to intense technical development competitive reactions, and financial problems. Most diffusion models however have not taken account of the lifetime uncertainty of new product. If the products do not last over the planning horizon set by those models. the optimal price derived from them could be futile. Therefore we had better take such lifetime uncertainty into consideration when developing diffusion models, In this paper we study the impact of uncertain product lifetime on its optimal pricing path in non-competitive market. We develop an optimal pricing model under uncertain product lifetimes and conduct a simulation study to investigate their effects on the optimal pricing and corresponding sales paths. The simulation study provides some interesting findings on optimal pricing policy under uncertain product lifetime. This study could be a stepping stone for the further extended study of optimal pricing strategy with uncertain product lifetime.

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Real-time Distributed Control in Virtual Device Network with Uncertain Time Delay for Predictive Maintenance (PM) (가상 디바이스 네트워크상에서 불확실한 시간지연을 갖는 실시간 분산제어를 이용한 예지보전에 관한 연구)

  • Kiwon Song;Gi-Heung Choi
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.154-160
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    • 2003
  • Uncertain time delay happens when the process reads the sensor data and sends the control input to the plant located at a remote site in distributed control system. As in the case of data network using TCP/IP, VDN that integrates both device network and data network has uncertain time delay. Uncertain time delay can cause degradation in performance and stability of distributed control system based on VDN. This paper first investigates the transmission characteristic of VDN and suggests a control scheme based on the Smith's predictor to minimize the effect of uncertain varying time delay. The validity of the proposed control scheme is demonstrated with real-time velocity control of DC servo motor located in remote site.

Design of robust gain scheduling controllers in uncertain nonlinear systems

  • Lee, Seon-Ho;Lim, Jong-Tae
    • 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 1996.10a
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    • pp.231-234
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    • 1996
  • This paper considers the output regulation problems on uncertain systems. Using NR-estimator(on-line), a family of equilibrium points for the uncertain system is computed. The state variables of the closed loop system track the average value of the obtained equilibrium manifold by dynamic state feedback control.

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Application of robust fault detection method for uncertain systms to diesel engine system (불확실성을 고려한 디젤엔진의 견실한 이상검출)

  • 유경상;김대우;권오규
    • 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 1997.10a
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    • pp.1419-1422
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    • 1997
  • This paper deals with the Appliation of robust fault detection problem in uncertain linear systems, having both model mismatch and noise. A robust fault detection method presented by Kwon et al.(1994) for SISO uncertain systems. Here we experimented this method to the diesel engine systems described by difference ARMA models. The model mismatch includes here linearization error as well as undermodeling. Comparisons are made with alternative fault detection method which do not account noise. The new method is shown to have good performance.

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Implementation issues for Uncertain Relational Databases

  • Yu, Hairong;Ramer, Arthur
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems Conference
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    • 1998.06a
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    • pp.128-133
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    • 1998
  • This paper aims to present some ideas for implementation of Uncertain Relational Databases (URD) which are extensions of classical relational databases. Our system firstly is based on possibility distribution and probability theory to represent and manipulate fuzzy and probabilistic information, secondly adopts flexible mechanisms that allow the management of uncertain data through the resources provided by both available relational database management systems and front-end interfaces, and lastly chooses dynamic SQL to enhance versatility and adjustability of systems.

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Design of a Continuous Adaptive Robust Control Estimating the Upper Bound of the Uncertainties using Fredholm Integral Formulae (Fredholm 적분식을 이용하여 불확실성의 경계치를 추정하는 적응강인제어기 설계)

  • 유동상
    • The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers D
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    • v.53 no.4
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    • pp.207-211
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    • 2004
  • We consider a class of uncertain nonlinear systems containing the uncertainties without a priori information except that they are bounded. For such systems, we assume that the upper bound of the uncertainties is represented as a Fredholm integral equation of the first kind and we propose an adaptation law that is capable of estimating the upper bound. Using this adaptive upper bound, a continuous robust control which renders uncertain nonlinear systems uniformly ultimately bounded is designed.

Performance Analyses of TDF $H_\infty$ Controllers for Uncertain Systems (불확실한 시스템에 대한 2-자유도 $H_\infty$ 제어기의 성능해석)

  • 강영중;이군석;권오규
    • 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 1993.10a
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    • pp.477-481
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    • 1993
  • The aim of this paper is to analyze via computer simulation the robust performance of TDF(Two Degree of Freedom) H.$_{\infty}$ controller for uncertain systems having parameter uncertainty. We apply the TDF H$_{\infty}$ controller to autopilot design. We evaluate the robust performance of the TDF H$_{\infty}$ controller for uncertain systems and present the guaranteed bound of robust performance via computer simulation.on.

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Adaptive control of uncertain systems with application to a robotic manipulator

  • Choi, Chong-Ho;Kim, Hong-Seok
    • 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 1989.10a
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    • pp.1085-1090
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    • 1989
  • In this paper, an adaptive control method is presented to guarantee the ultimate boundedness of uncertain systems with partially known uncertainty bounds. This method, with a conventional linear compensator, is used to improve the performance of the trajectory tracking of a robotic manipulator with uncertainties. The proposed method is simulated under several different environments, and its performance is compared with the computed torque method. The simulation results show that the proposed method is well suited for high-performance operation of uncertain robotic systems.

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