• Korean Management Science Review
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• v.10 no.2
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• pp.27-42
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• 1993

Markov chain models can be used to predict the state of the system in the future. We extend the existing Markov chain models in two ways. For the stationary model, we propose a procedure that obtains the transition probabilities by appling the empirical Bayes method, in which the parameters of the prior distribution in the Bayes estimator are obtained on the collaternal micro data. For non-stationary model, we suggest a procedure that obtains a time-varying transition probabilities as a function of the exogenous variables. To illustrate the effectiveness of our extended models, the models are applied to the macro and micro time-series data generated from actual survey. Our stationary model yields reliable parameter values of the prior distribution. And our non-stationary model can predict the variable transition probabilities effectively.

• Journal of Communications and Networks
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• v.16 no.2
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• pp.217-226
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• 2014

In this research, we study the problem of opportunistic spectrum access (OSA) in a time-varying environment with fading channels, where the channel state is characterized by both channel quality and the occupancy of primary users (PUs). First, a finite-state Markov channel model is introduced to represent a fading channel. Second, by probing channel quality and exploring the activities of PUs jointly, a two-dimensional partially observable Markov decision process framework is proposed for OSA. In addition, a greedy strategy is designed, where a secondary user selects a channel that has the best-expected data transmission rate to maximize the instantaneous reward in the current slot. Compared with the optimal strategy that considers future reward, the greedy strategy brings low complexity and relatively ideal performance. Meanwhile, the spectrum sensing error that causes the collision between a PU and a secondary user (SU) is also discussed. Furthermore, we analyze the multiuser situation in which the proposed single-user strategy is adopted by every SU compared with the previous one. By observing the simulation results, the proposed strategy attains a larger throughput than the previous works under various parameter configurations.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.38 no.8 s.157
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• pp.595-604
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• 2005

Precipitation simulation for making the data size larger is an important task for hydrologic analysis. The simulation can be divided into two major categories which are the parametric and nonparametric methods. Also, precipitation simulation depends on time intervals such as daily or hourly rainfall simulations. So far, Markov model is the most favored method for daily precipitation simulation. However, most models are consist of state transition probability by using the homogeneous Markov chain model. In order to make a state vector, the small size of data brings difficulties, and also the assumption of homogeneousness among the state vector in a month causes problems. In other words, the process of daily precipitation mechanism is nonstationary. In order to overcome these problems, this paper focused on the nonparametric method by using uni-variate and multi-variate when simulating a precipitation instead of currently used parametric method.

• Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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• v.36 no.5
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• pp.353-363
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• 2020

Hydrologic models can be classified into two types: those for understanding physical processes and those for predicting hydrologic quantities. This study deals with how to use the model to predict today's stream flow based on the system's knowledge of yesterday's state and the model parameters. In this regard, for the model to generate accurate predictions, the uncertainty of the parameters and appropriate estimates of the state variables are required. In this study, a relatively simple hydrologic partitioning model is proposed that can explicitly implement the hydrologic partitioning process, and the posterior distribution of the parameters of the proposed model is estimated using the Markov chain Monte Carlo approach. Further, the application method of the ensemble Kalman filter is proposed for updating the normalized soil moisture, which is the state variable of the model, by linking the information on the posterior distribution of the parameters and by assimilating the observed steam flow data. The stochastically and recursively estimated stream flows using the data assimilation technique revealed better representation of the observed data than the stream flows predicted using the deterministic model. Therefore, the ensemble Kalman filter in conjunction with the Markov chain Monte Carlo approach could be a reliable and effective method for forecasting daily stream flow, and it could also be a suitable method for routinely updating and monitoring the watershed-averaged soil moisture.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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• v.11 no.9
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• pp.4180-4196
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• 2017

In this paper, we analyze average capacity of an amplify-and-forward (AF) cooperative communication system model in multi-relay multiuser networks. In contrast to conventional cooperative networks, relays in the considered network have no embedded energy supply. They need to rely on the energy harvested from the signals broadcasted by the source for their cooperative information transmission. Based on this structure, a two-step selection scheme is proposed considering both channel state information (CSI) and battery status of relays. Assuming each relay has infinite or finite energy storage for accumulating the energy, we use the infinite or finite Markov chain to capture the evolution of relay batteries and certain simplified assumptions to reduce computational complexity of the Markov chain analysis. The approximate closed-form expressions for the average capacity of the proposed scheme are derived. All theoretical results are validated by numerical simulations. The impacts of the system parameters, such as relay or user number, energy harvesting threshold and battery size, on the capacity performance are extensively investigated. Results show that although the performance of our scheme is inferior to the optimal joint selection scheme, it is still a practical scheme because its complexity is much lower than that of the optimal scheme.

• Journal of Industrial Technology
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• v.23 no.A
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• pp.41-46
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• 2003

Because the quality of a radio link in real environment is generally varied with time, there is a difference between the delay in the real environment and one obtained from the analytic model where a time-varying link model is not used as a link model for a Bluetooth. This paper analyzes the transmission delay of a message in the time-varying radio link model for the Bluetooth. The time-varying radio link is modeled with a two-state Markov model. The mean transmission delay of the message is analytically obtained in terms of the arrival rate of the message, the state transition probability in the Markov model, and the packet error rate.

• Communications of the Korean Mathematical Society
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• v.14 no.2
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• pp.405-423
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• 1999

We consider a statistical multiplexer model with finite buffer capacity and finite number of independent identical 3-state bursty voice sources. The burstiness of the sources is modeled by describing both two different active periods (at the rate of one packet perslot) and the passive periods during which no packets are generated. Assuming a mixture of two geometric distributions for active period and a geometric distribution for passive period and geometric distribution for passive period, we derive the recursive algorithm for the probability mass function of the buffer contents (in packets). We also obtain loss probability and the distribution of packet delay. Numerical results show that the system performance deteriorates considerably as the variance of the active period increases. Also, we see that the loss probability of 2-state Markov models is less than that of 3-state Markov models.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
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• 2004.05b
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• pp.399-403
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• 2004

In this paper, we have analyzed the TCP throughput of Portable Internet system in 2.3GHz wireless environment with considering user's mobility speed. As the Portable Internet uses large cells compared to wireless LAM and supports user's nobility, we have adapted different wireless channel model to derive the TCP throughput of the system. We have assumed wireless channel is Rayleigh fading channel and the channel is modeled as two-state Markov model with which user's nobility speed can be considered by varying transition matrix of the model. from the simulation results, we have known that higher TCP throughput under the slow fading than under the fast fading. Because the TCP throughput is closely related to the sender's congestion control, the more congestion control is done by the sender, the lower TCP throughput we have. The more congestion control is caused in the sender under the fast fading than the slow fading so the lower TCP throughput is resulted in the fast fading environment.

• Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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• v.40 no.5
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• pp.43-52
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• 2003

Two methods which estimate manoeuvring derivatives in the model of hydrodynamic force and moment acting on a manoeuvring ship using sea trial data were compared. One is the widely used parameter estimation method by using the Extended Kalman Filter (EKF), which estimates state variables of linearized state space model at every instant after dealing with the coefficients as the augmented state variables. The other one is the Estimation-Before-Modeling (EBM) technique, so called the two-step method. In the first step, hydrodynamic force of which dynamic model is assumed the third-order Gauss-Markov process is estimated along with motion variables by the EKF and the modified Bryson-Frazier smoother. Then, in the next step, manoeuvring derivatives are identified through the regression analysis. If the exact structure of hydrodynamic force could be known, which was an ideal case, the EKF method would be regarded as being more superior compared to the EBM technique. However the EBM technique was more robust than the EKF method from a realistic point of view where the assumed model structure was slightly different from the real one.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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• v.12 no.7
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• pp.3095-3111
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• 2018

Spectrum sensing (SS) is one of the fundamental tasks for cognitive radio. In SS, decisions can be made via comparing the test statistics with a threshold. Conventional adaptive algorithms for SS usually adjust their thresholds according to the radio environment. This paper concentrates on the issue of adaptive SS whose threshold is adjusted based on the Markovian behavior of primary user (PU). Moreover, Bayesian cost is adopted as the performance metric to achieve a trade-off between false alarm and missed detection probabilities. Two novel adaptive algorithms, including Markov Bayesian energy detection (MBED) algorithm and IMBED (improved MBED) algorithm, are proposed. Both algorithms model the behavior of PU as a two-state Markov process, with which their thresholds are adaptively adjusted according to the detection results at previous slots. Compared with the existing Bayesian energy detection (BED) algorithm, MBED algorithm can achieve lower Bayesian cost, especially in high signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) regime. Furthermore, it has the advantage of low computational complexity. IMBED algorithm is proposed to alleviate the side effects of detection errors at previous slots. It can reduce Bayesian cost more significantly and in a wider SNR region. Simulation results are provided to illustrate the effectiveness and efficiencies of both algorithms.