• Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
• /
• v.47 no.3
• /
• pp.471-483
• /
• 2020

Flood prediction is an important issue to prevent damages by flood inundation caused by increasing high-intensity rainfall with climate change. In recent years, machine learning algorithms have been receiving attention in many scientific fields including hydrology, water resources, natural hazards, etc. The performance of a machine learning algorithm was investigated to predict the water elevation of a river in this study. The aim of this study was to develop a new method for securing a large enough lead time for flood defenses by predicting river water elevation using the a long- short-term memory (LSTM) technique. The water elevation data at the Oisong gauging station were selected to evaluate its applicability. The test data were the water elevation data measured by K-water from 15 February 2013 to 26 August 2018, approximately 5 years 6 months, at 1 hour intervals. To investigate the predictability of the data in terms of the data characteristics and the lead time of the prediction data, the data were divided into the same interval data (group-A) and time average data (group-B) set. Next, the predictability was evaluated by constructing a total of 36 cases. Based on the results, group-A had a more stable water elevation prediction skill compared to group-B with a lead time from 1 to 6 h. Thus, the LSTM technique using only measured water elevation data can be used for securing the appropriate lead time for flood defense in a river.

• Journal of Environmental Science International
• /
• v.18 no.11
• /
• pp.1271-1281
• /
• 2009

The heavy snowfall event over the eastern part of Seoul, Korea on Mar. 04, 2008 has been abruptly occurred after the frontal system with the heavy snowfall event had been past over the Korean peninsula on Mar. 03, 2008. Therefore, this heavy snowfall event couldn't be predicted well by any means of theoretical knowledges and models. After the cold front passed by, the cold air mass was flown over the peninsula immediately and became clear expectedly except the eastern part and southwestern part of peninsula with some large amount of snowfall. Even though the wide and intense massive cold anticyclone was expanded and enhanced by the lowest tropospheric baroclinicity over the Yellow Sea, but the intrusion and eastward movement of cold air to Seoul was too slow than normally predicted. Using the data of numerical model, satellite and radar images, three dimensional analysis Products(KLAPS : Korea Local Analysis and Prediction System) of the environmental conditions of this event such as temperature, equivalent potential temperature, wind, vertical circulation, divergence, moisture flux divergence and relative vorticity could be analyzed precisely. Through the analysis of this event, the formation and westward advection of lower cyclonic circulation with continuously horizontal movement of air into the eastern part of Seoul by the analyses of KLAPS fields have been affected by occurring the heavy snowfall event. As the predictability of abrupt snowfall event was very hard and dependent on not only the synoptic atmospheric circulation but also for mesoscale atmospheric circulation, the forecaster can be predicted well this event which may be occurred and developed within the very short time period using sequential satellite images and KLAPS products.

• The KIPS Transactions:PartC
• /
• v.14C no.3 s.113
• /
• pp.305-312
• /
• 2007

In this paper, we present a received signal strength (RSS) prediction model to timely Initiate link layer triggers for fast handoff in a wireless LAN system. Noting that the distance between a mobile terminal and an access point is not changed abruptly in a short time interval, an adaptive RSS predictor based on a stationary time series model is proposed. RSS data obtained from ns-2 simulations are used to identity the time series model and verify the predictability of the RSS data. The results suggest that an autoregressive process of order 1 (AR(1)) can be used to represent the measured RSSs in a short time interval and predict at least 1-step ahead RSS with a high confidence level.

• Atmosphere
• /
• v.24 no.1
• /
• pp.1-15
• /
• 2014

This study compared ensemble mean and probability forecasts of snow depth amount associated with winter storm over South Korea on 28 December 2012 at five operational forecast centers (CMA, ECMWF, NCEP, KMA, and UMKO). And cause of difference in predicted snow depth at each Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) was investigated by using THe Observing system Research and Predictability EXperiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) data. This snowfall event occurred due to low pressure passing through South Sea of Korea. Amount of 6 hr accumulated snow depth was more than 10 cm over southern region of South Korea In this case study, ECMWF showed best prediction skill for the spatio-temporal distribution of snow depth. At first, ECMWF EPS has been consistently enhancing the indications present in ensemble mean snow depth forecasts from 7-day lead time. Secondly, its ensemble probabilities in excess of 2~5 cm/6 hour have been coincided with observation frequencies. And this snowfall case could be predicted from 5-day lead time by using 10-day lag ensemble mean 6 hr accumulated snow depth distribution. In addition, the cause of good performances at ECMWF EPS in predicted snow depth amounts was due to outstanding prediction ability of forming inversion layer with below $0^{\circ}C$ temperature in low level (below 850 hPa) according to $35^{\circ}N$ at 1-day lead time.

• Journal of Information Processing Systems
• /
• v.13 no.3
• /
• pp.618-629
• /
• 2017

Mobile nodes can't always connect each other in DTNs (delay tolerant networks). Many DTN routing protocols that favor the "multi-hop forwarding" are proposed to solve these network problems. But they also lead to intolerant delivery cost so that designing a overhead-efficient routing protocol which is able to perform well in delivery ratio with lower delivery cost at the same time is valuable. Therefore, we utilize the small-world property and propose a new delivery metric called multi-probability to design our relay node selection principles that nodes with lower delivery predictability can also be selected to be the relay nodes if one of their history nodes has higher delivery predictability. So, we can find more potential relay nodes to reduce the forwarding overhead of successfully delivered messages through our proposed algorithm called HESnW. We also apply our new messages copies allocation scheme to optimize the routing performance. Comparing to existing routing algorithms, simulation results show that HESnW can reduce the delivery cost while it can also obtain a rather high delivery ratio.

• Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
• /
• v.24 no.4
• /
• pp.451-456
• /
• 2007

Data coming from devices shall be transported to a specific task to be used in a software with the most accurate time and data integrity. During this process, a potential cause for invoking structured hazard and performance degradation is dormant. In this paper, a method which can protect the data integrity from the possible data corruption when collision has happened during I/O data exchange between device and tasks is presented. Also, an example diagram of mechanism according to the method is shown and the effect, merits and demerits of the method is evaluated.

• Atmosphere
• /
• v.24 no.3
• /
• pp.419-432
• /
• 2014

An assessment of typhoon intensity predictability of numerical models was conducted to develop the typhoon intensity forecast guidance comparing with the RSMC-Tokyo best track data. Root mean square error, box plot analysis and time series of wind speed comparison were performed to evaluate the each model error level. One of noticeable fact is that all models have a trend of error increase as typhoon becomes stronger and the Global Forecast System showed the best performance among the models. In the detailed analysis in two typhoon cases [Danas (1324) and Haiyan (1330)], GFS showed good performance in maximum wind speed and intensity trend in the best track, however it could not simulate well the rapid intensity increasing period. On the other hand, ECMWF and Hurricane-WRF overestimated the typhoon intensity but simulated track trend well.

• Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
• /
• v.10 no.4
• /
• pp.260-280
• /
• 1994

The STEM II(Sulfur Transport Eulerian Model II) was adapted to simulate transport/ chemistry/deposition of air Pollutants in the Eastern China and Korea. A 32 hour model simulation starting from 9 A.M. of 1989 November 25 during which no preciptation was observed. The Prevailing wind direction is from west to east. The MM4(Meteorological Model Version 4) was used to generate meteorological data such as temperatures, horizontal wind velocities and directions, humidities, air densities. Eddy diffusivities, dry deposition velocities and vertical wind velocities were calculated from the meteorological data. The initial condition and the emission data base were constructed from the measurements and governmental reports respectively. The model predictions of NO, NO$_2$, SO$_2$, $O_3$ at Seoul, Inchon and Pusan agree reasonably well with measurements. The model's predictability for the primary air pollutants is improved considerably as the time passes. Thus, it is concluded that the model's predictability can be significantly enhanced by reducing the uncertainties of initial conditions.

• Atmosphere
• /
• v.22 no.4
• /
• pp.455-464
• /
• 2012

This study investigates a 12 month-lead predictability of PNU Coupled General Circulation Model (CGCM) V1.1 hindcast, for which an oceanic data assimilated initialization is used to generate ocean initial condition. The CGCM, a participant model of APEC Climate Center (APCC) long-lead multi-model ensemble system, has been initialized at each and every month and performed 12-month-lead hindcast for each month during 1980 to 2011. The 12-month-lead hindcast consisted of 2-5 ensembles and this study verified the ensemble averaged hindcast. As for the sea-surface temperature concerns, it remained high level of confidence especially over the tropical Pacific and the mid-latitude central Pacific with slight declining of temporal correlation coefficients (TCC) as lead month increased. The CGCM revealed trustworthy ENSO prediction skills in most of hindcasts, in particular. For atmospheric variables, like air temperature, precipitation, and geopotential height at 500hPa, reliable prediction results have been shown during entire lead time in most of domain, particularly over the equatorial region. Though the TCCs of hindcasted precipitation are lower than other variables, a skillful precipitation forecasts is also shown over highly variable regions such as ITCZ. This study also revealed that there are seasonal and regional dependencies on predictability for each variable and lead.

• Proceedings of The Korean Society of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Conference
• /
• 2011.11a
• /
• pp.20-27
• /
• 2011

A system for fine-resolution long-range weather forecast is introduced in this study. The system is basically consisted of a global-scale coupled general circulation model (CGCM) and Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) regional model. The system makes use of a data assimilation method in order to reduce the initial shock or drift that occurs at the beginning of coupling due to imbalance between model dynamics and observed initial condition. The long-range predictions are produced in the system based on a non-linear ensemble method. At the same time, the model bias are eliminated by estimating the difference between hindcast model climate and observation. In this research, the predictability of the forecast system is studied, and it is illustrated that the system can be effectively used for the high resolution long-term weather prediction. Also, using the system, fine-resolution climatological data has been produced with high degree of accuracy. It is proved that the production of agrometeorological variables that are not intensively observed are also possible.