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On the Predictability of Heavy Snowfall Event in Seoul, Korea at Mar. 04, 2008

폭설에 대한 예측가능성 연구 - 2008년 3월 4일 서울지역 폭설사례를 중심으로 -

  • 류찬수 (조선대학교 대기과학과/기후변화.환경연구소) ;
  • 서애숙 (기상청, 국가기상위성센터) ;
  • 박종서 (기상청, 국가기상위성센터) ;
  • 정효상 (조선대학교 대기과학과/기후변화.환경연구소)
  • Published : 2009.11.30

Abstract

The heavy snowfall event over the eastern part of Seoul, Korea on Mar. 04, 2008 has been abruptly occurred after the frontal system with the heavy snowfall event had been past over the Korean peninsula on Mar. 03, 2008. Therefore, this heavy snowfall event couldn't be predicted well by any means of theoretical knowledges and models. After the cold front passed by, the cold air mass was flown over the peninsula immediately and became clear expectedly except the eastern part and southwestern part of peninsula with some large amount of snowfall. Even though the wide and intense massive cold anticyclone was expanded and enhanced by the lowest tropospheric baroclinicity over the Yellow Sea, but the intrusion and eastward movement of cold air to Seoul was too slow than normally predicted. Using the data of numerical model, satellite and radar images, three dimensional analysis Products(KLAPS : Korea Local Analysis and Prediction System) of the environmental conditions of this event such as temperature, equivalent potential temperature, wind, vertical circulation, divergence, moisture flux divergence and relative vorticity could be analyzed precisely. Through the analysis of this event, the formation and westward advection of lower cyclonic circulation with continuously horizontal movement of air into the eastern part of Seoul by the analyses of KLAPS fields have been affected by occurring the heavy snowfall event. As the predictability of abrupt snowfall event was very hard and dependent on not only the synoptic atmospheric circulation but also for mesoscale atmospheric circulation, the forecaster can be predicted well this event which may be occurred and developed within the very short time period using sequential satellite images and KLAPS products.

Keywords

References

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