Journal of Environmental Science International (한국환경과학회지)

The Korean Environmental Sciences Society (한국환경과학회)
권호 표지
DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

On the Predictability of Heavy Snowfall Event in Seoul, Korea at Mar. 04, 2008

폭설에 대한 예측가능성 연구 - 2008년 3월 4일 서울지역 폭설사례를 중심으로 -

  • 류찬수 (조선대학교 대기과학과/기후변화.환경연구소) ;
  • 서애숙 (기상청, 국가기상위성센터) ;
  • 박종서 (기상청, 국가기상위성센터) ;
  • 정효상 (조선대학교 대기과학과/기후변화.환경연구소)
  • Published : 2009.11.30
Download PDF
⟨ Previous Next ⟩

Abstract

The heavy snowfall event over the eastern part of Seoul, Korea on Mar. 04, 2008 has been abruptly occurred after the frontal system with the heavy snowfall event had been past over the Korean peninsula on Mar. 03, 2008. Therefore, this heavy snowfall event couldn't be predicted well by any means of theoretical knowledges and models. After the cold front passed by, the cold air mass was flown over the peninsula immediately and became clear expectedly except the eastern part and southwestern part of peninsula with some large amount of snowfall. Even though the wide and intense massive cold anticyclone was expanded and enhanced by the lowest tropospheric baroclinicity over the Yellow Sea, but the intrusion and eastward movement of cold air to Seoul was too slow than normally predicted. Using the data of numerical model, satellite and radar images, three dimensional analysis Products(KLAPS : Korea Local Analysis and Prediction System) of the environmental conditions of this event such as temperature, equivalent potential temperature, wind, vertical circulation, divergence, moisture flux divergence and relative vorticity could be analyzed precisely. Through the analysis of this event, the formation and westward advection of lower cyclonic circulation with continuously horizontal movement of air into the eastern part of Seoul by the analyses of KLAPS fields have been affected by occurring the heavy snowfall event. As the predictability of abrupt snowfall event was very hard and dependent on not only the synoptic atmospheric circulation but also for mesoscale atmospheric circulation, the forecaster can be predicted well this event which may be occurred and developed within the very short time period using sequential satellite images and KLAPS products.

Keywords

References

  1. 기상연구소, 2006, 단시간 강수예측능력 향상 연구(III), 247pp
  2. 전종갑, 이동규, 이현아, 1994, 우리나라에서 발생한 폭설에 관한 연구, 한국기상학회지, 30(1), 97-117
  3. 김도우, 한상은, 임병환, 변희룡, 2005, Polar low에의한 2005년 3월 5-6일 부산 지역 폭설, 한국기상학회 춘계학술대회 Proceedings, 한국기상학회, 364-365
  4. 조경미, 백은혁, 임규호, 2005, 2005년 3월 5-6일 부산 폭설사례를 통한 Polar Low의 발달 기구 모의, 한국기상학회 춘계학술대회 Proceedings, 한국기상학회, 66-67
  5. 허기영, 하경자, 신선희, 2005, 2005년 3월 5일에 나타난 부산지역 폭설의 발달기구에 대한 연구, 한국기상학회지, 41(4), 547-556
  6. Fu G. et al.，2004, A Ploar Low over the Japan sea on 21 January 1997, part I : Observational Analysis. Mon. Wea. Rev., vol. 132, 1537-1551 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2004)132<1537:APLOTJ>2.0.CO;2
  7. 안중배, 오재호, 조익현, 1998, 중규모 대기/해양 집합모형을 이용한 한반도 폭설사레 실험, 한국기상학회지, 34(4), 652-663
  8. 이재규, 이재성, 2003, 동풍계열의 기류와 관련된 영동 폭설사례에 대한 수치모의, 한국기상학회지, 39(4), 475-490
  9. Waldstreicher J. S., 2002, A foot of snow from a 3000-foot cloud: The ocean-effect snowstorm of 14 January 1999, Bull. Amer. Metero. Soc., Amer. Meteor. Soc., 83, 19-22 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(2002)083<0019:AFOSFA>2.3.CO;2
  10. St. Jean D. and P. A. Session, 2004, Characteristics of Upslope Snowfall Events in Northem New York State and Northem Vermont: Diagnostics and Model Simulations of Several Northwest-Flow Cases, Preprints, 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting, Seattle, W A, Amer. Meteor. Soc., CDROM, 18.4
  11. 이훈, 이태영, 1994, 영동지역의 폭설 요인, 한국기상학회지, 30(2), 197-218
  12. 류찬수, 이순환, 2006, 서해상의 해수면 기온 분포에 따른 폭설 강도변화에 관한 수치 연구, 한국지구과학회 추계학술대회 Proceedings, 한국지구과학회, 229-231
  13. 류찬수, 이순환, 박철홍, 2007, 2005년 12월에 발생한 호남폭설의 발달 환경에 관한 연구, 한국환경과학회지, 16(2), 1439-1449 https://doi.org/10.5322/JES.2007.16.12.1439
  14. 원효성, 이순환, 류찬수, 2005, 호남지방 고층관측자료동화가 수치기상예보에 미치는 영향에 관한연구, 한국지구과학회지, 26(1), 66-77
  15. Ryu C. S., K. T. Shon and J. H. Lee, 2005, Statistical prediction of occurrence of heavy snow in Honam area, Korea, ISAM5 Proceeding, ISAM5 Organizing Committee, 63-65
  16. 정성훈, 변건영, 이태영, 2006, 발생기구에 따른 한반도 강설의 유형분류, 한국기상학회, 대기, 16(1), 33-48
  17. Shaw B. L., J. A. McGinley and P. Schultz, 2001, Explicit initialization of clouds and precipitation in mesoscale forecast models, Preprints, 14th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction, Ft. Lauderale, FL, Amer. Meteof. Soc
  18. Howard B. B., 1993, Synoptic-Dynmic Meterorology in Midlatitudes, Vol. II. New York Oxford University Press, 594pp