• Journal of Technology Innovation
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• v.7 no.1
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• pp.176-186
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• 1999

This paper starts out by reviewing the literature that in different ways utilizes patent data as an output of Research ＆ Development (R&D) investment. The main focus, however, is an analysis of time-lag between industrial R&D input and its output. To achieve this research's purpose, the basic data associated with the industrial R&D input (expenditure, researchers) and output (applied patent and utilities) for the past 15 years, from 1980 to 1994, in the areas of electrical-electronic, mechanical and chemical industries have been collected. And the raw input data were altered into real flow data (but stock data) using Laspeyres approach and analyzed using multiple regression analysis, especially stepwise regression analysis. The result of this study can be summarized as follows: a) The time-lag; between industrial R&D input and its output is within 1 to 3 years. b) The time-lag: of patents was longer than that of utility models. c) The time-lag: in electrical-electronic, chemical industry was longer than that of the mechanical industry.

• Water Engineering Research
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• v.2 no.4
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• pp.219-229
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• 2001

Synthetic unit hydrograph equations for rainfall run-off characteristics analysis and estimation of design flood have long and quite frequently been presented, the Snyder and SCS synthetic unit hydrograph. The major inputs to the Snyder and SCS synthetic unit hydrograph are lag time and peak coefficient. In this study, the methods for estimating lag time and peak coefficient for small watersheds proposed by Zhao and McEnroe(1999) were applied to the Kum river basin in Korea. We investigated lag times of relatively small watersheds in the Kum river basin in Korea. For this investigation the recent rainfall and stream flow data for 10 relatively small watersheds with drainage areas ranging from 134 to 902 square kilometers were gathered and used. 250 flood flow events were identified along the way, and the lag time for the flood events was determined by using the rainfall and stream flow data. Lag time is closely related with the basin characteristics of a given drainage area such as channel length, channel slope, and drainage area. A regression analysis was conducted to relate lag time to the watershed characteristics. The resulting regression model is as shown below: ※ see full text (equations) In the model, Tlag is the lag time in hours, Lc is the length of the main river in kilometers and Se is the equivalent channel slope of the main channel. The coefficient of determinations (r$^2$)expressed in the regression equation is 0.846. The peak coefficient is not correlated significantly with any of the watershed characteristics. We recommend a peak coefficient of 0.60 as input to the Snyder unit-hydrograph model for the ungauged Kum river watersheds

• Proceedings of the Technology Innovation Conference
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• 1997.07a
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• pp.160-171
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• 1997

This paper starts out by reviewing the literature that in different ways utilizes patent data as a output of R&D investment. The main focus, however, is an analysis of time-lag between R&D input and output. To achieve this research objective, the basic data associated with the R&D input(expenditure, researchers) and output(patent, utilities) for the past 15 years, from 1980 to 1994, in the areas of electrical-electronic, mechanical and chemical industries have been collected. And the raw output data were altered it to objective data using Laspeyres approach and analyzed using multiple regression analysis, especially stepwise regression analysis. The result of this study can be summarized as follows: a) The time-lag between R&D input and output is from 1 to 4 years. This result is equal to the research conclusion of the existing foreign studies. b) It was found that the time-lag of patents was longer than of utility models. c) It was showed that the time-lag of electrical-electronic, mechanical industry was longer than the chemical one.

• Journal of Information Processing Systems
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• v.20 no.3
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• pp.345-359
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• 2024

A regression model represents the relationship between explanatory and response variables. In real life, explanatory variables often affect a response variable with a certain time lag, rather than immediately. For example, the marriage rate affects the birth rate with a time lag of 1 to 2 years. Although deep learning models have been successfully used to model various relationships, most of them do not consider the time lags between explanatory and response variables. Therefore, in this paper, we propose an extension of deep learning models, which automatically finds the time lags between explanatory and response variables. The proposed method finds out which of the past values of the explanatory variables minimize the error of the model, and uses the found values to determine the time lag between each explanatory variable and response variables. After determining the time lags between explanatory and response variables, the proposed method trains the deep learning model again by reflecting these time lags. Through various experiments applying the proposed method to a few deep learning models, we confirm that the proposed method can find a more accurate model whose error is reduced by more than 60% compared to the original model.

• Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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• v.19 no.4
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• pp.687-710
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• 2016

This study aims to empirically estimate distributed lag effects of expenditure by type of R&D on scientific publication in the national R&D program. To analyze the lag structure between them, we used a dataset comprised of panel data from 104 technologies categorized by 6T (IT, BT, NT, ST, ET, CT) from 2007 to 2014, and employed multiple regression analysis based on the polynomial distributed lag model. This is because it is highly likely to emerge multicollinearity, if a distributed lag model without special restrictions is applied to multiple regression analysis. The main results are as follows. In the case of basic research, its lag effects are relatively evenly distributed during four years. On the other hand, the applied research and experimental development have distributed lag effects for three years and two years respectively. Therefore, when it comes to analyzing performance of scientific publication, it is necessary to be performed with characteristics of the time lag by type of R&D.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2023.05a
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• pp.358-358
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• 2023

본 연구에서는 그동안 수자원분야 강우유출 해석분야에 활용되었던 대표적인 머신러닝&딥러닝(ML&DL) 모델을 활용하여 모델의 하이퍼파라미터 튜닝뿐만 아니라 모델의 특성을 고려한 기상 및 수문데이터의 조합과 전처리(lag-time, 이동평균 등)를 통하여 데이터 특성과 ML&DL모델의 조합시나리오에 따른 일 유입량 예측성능을 비교 검토하는 연구를 수행하였다. 이를 위해 소양강댐 유역을 대상으로 1974년에서 2021년까지 축적된 기상 및 수문데이터를 활용하여 1) 강우, 2) 유입량, 3) 기상자료를 주요 영향변수(독립변수)로 고려하고, 이에 a) 지체시간(lag-time), b) 이동평균, c) 유입량의 성분분리조건을 적용하여 총 36가지 시나리오 조합을 ML&DL의 입력자료로 활용하였다. ML&DL 모델은 1) Linear Regression(LR), 2) Lasso, 3) Ridge, 4) SVR(Support Vector Regression), 5) Random Forest(RF), 6) LGBM(Light Gradient Boosting Model), 7) XGBoost의 7가지 ML방법과 8) LSTM(Long Short-Term Memory models), 9) TCN(Temporal Convolutional Network), 10) LSTM-TCN의 3가지 DL 방법, 총 10가지 ML&DL모델을 비교 검토하여 일유입량 예측을 위한 가장 적합한 데이터 조합 특성과 ML&DL모델을 성능평가와 함께 제시하였다. 학습된 모형의 유입량 예측 결과를 비교·분석한 결과, 소양강댐 유역에서는 딥러닝 중에서는 TCN모형이 가장 우수한 성능을 보였고(TCN>TCN-LSTM>LSTM), 트리기반 머신러닝중에서는 Random Forest와 LGBM이 우수한 성능을 보였으며(RF, LGBM>XGB), SVR도 LGBM수준의 우수한 성능을 나타내었다. LR, Lasso, Ridge 세가지 Regression모형은 상대적으로 낮은 성능을 보였다. 또한 소양강댐 댐유입량 예측에 대하여 강우, 유입량, 기상계열을 36가지로 조합한 결과, 입력자료에 lag-time이 적용된 강우계열의 조합 분석에서 세가지 Regression모델을 제외한 모든 모형에서 NSE(Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency) 0.8이상(최대 0.867)의 성능을 보였으며, lag-time이 적용된 강우와 유입량계열을 조합했을 경우 NSE 0.85이상(최대 0.901)의 더 우수한 성능을 보였다.

• Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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• v.20 no.4
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• pp.221-234
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• 2013

In this paper, we report bankruptcy risk level forecasting result for automobile parts manufacturing industry. With the premise that upstream supply risk and downstream demand risk could impact on automobile parts industry bankruptcy level in advance, we draw upon industry input-output table to use the economic indicators which could reflect the extent of supply and demand risk of the automobile parts industry. To verify the validity of each economic indicator, we applied simple linear regression for each indicators by varying the time lag from one month (t-1) to 12 months (t-12). Finally, with the valid indicators obtained through the simple regressions, the composition of valid economic indicators are derived using stepwise linear regression. Using the monthly automobile parts industry bankruptcy frequency data accumulated during the 5 years, R-square values of the stepwise linear regression results are 68.7%, 91.5%, 85.3% for the 3, 6, 9 months time lag cases each respectively. The computational testing results verifies the effectiveness of our approach in forecasting bankruptcy risk forecasting of the automobile parts industry.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.8 no.11
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• pp.27-34
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• 1985

Recently the distributed lag models for time series data have been used in several quantitative analyses. But the analyses of time series which have the serial correlations in error terms and the lagged values of dependent variables violate the hypothesis of OLS method. This paper suggests that the approach technique of distributed lay model with serial correlation should be applied by the Bayesian inference to estimate the parameters. For the application of distributed lag model by Bayesian analysis, the data for monthly consumption expenditure per household by items of commodities from 1972 to 1981 are used in order to estimate the lagged coefficient of processed food and the regression coefficient of the food and beverage.

• Korean Management Science Review
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• v.33 no.3
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• pp.105-117
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• 2016

In this paper, we present empirical testing result to examine the validity of inbound supply and outbound demand risk factors in the sense of early predicting the firm's bankruptcy risk level. The risk factors are drawn from industry uncertainty attributes categorized as uncertainties of input market (inbound supply), and product market (outbound demand). On the basis of input-output table, industry level inbound and outbound sectors are identified to formalize supply chain structures, relevant inbound and outbound uncertainty attributes and corresponding risk factors. Subsequently, publicly available macro-economic indicators are used to appropriately quantify these risk factors. Total 68 industry level bankruptcy risk forecasting results are presented with the average R-square scores of between 53.4% and 37.1% with varying time lag. The findings offers useful insights to incorporate supply chain risk to the body of firm's bankruptcy risk level prediction literature.

• Journal of Korea Society of Digital Industry and Information Management
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• v.9 no.2
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• pp.121-137
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• 2013

Now days, firm's technology capability is recognized as important factor to forecast and to evaluate firm's business performance. There are many efforts to develop useful indicators by applying patent information that includes concrete description about technology. Many previous studies analyzed relationship between patent indicators and firm's performance. But they didn't consider time gap between a point of firm's invention activity and a point of firm's performance improvement. They didn't considered a character of industrial fields either. To overcome these limitations, we selected IT industry for target analysis industry. Time-series patent data and financial data from 41 American IT firms between 2000 and 2011 were used to analyze. In this study, We empirically analyzed subsequent effect of patent indicators on firm's business performance by using correlation analysis and regression analysis.