Korean Management Science Review (경영과학)

The Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society (한국경영과학회)
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Investigation and Empirical Validation of Industry Uncertainty Risk Factors Impacting on Bankruptcy Risk of the Firm

기업부도위험에 영향을 미치는 산업 불확실성 위험요인의 탐색과 실증 분석

  • Received : 2016.06.01
  • Accepted : 2016.09.27
  • Published : 2016.09.30
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Abstract

In this paper, we present empirical testing result to examine the validity of inbound supply and outbound demand risk factors in the sense of early predicting the firm's bankruptcy risk level. The risk factors are drawn from industry uncertainty attributes categorized as uncertainties of input market (inbound supply), and product market (outbound demand). On the basis of input-output table, industry level inbound and outbound sectors are identified to formalize supply chain structures, relevant inbound and outbound uncertainty attributes and corresponding risk factors. Subsequently, publicly available macro-economic indicators are used to appropriately quantify these risk factors. Total 68 industry level bankruptcy risk forecasting results are presented with the average R-square scores of between 53.4% and 37.1% with varying time lag. The findings offers useful insights to incorporate supply chain risk to the body of firm's bankruptcy risk level prediction literature.

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References

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