• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.20 no.44
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• pp.257-261
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• 1997

Patents often serve as leading indicators of technological change. This patenting activity reflected R&D (Research & Development) of new technology. The purpose of this study is to set up a forecasting model that anticipate the number of domestic patent applications and the number of patents granted relating to R&D inputs (R&D expenditure, R&D manpower) at the level of three industrial sectors in Korea : electrical-electronic, machinery, chemical etc. In this study, forecasting models were used trend extrapolation and a set of regressions. Both Theil's inequality coefficient and MAE(Mean Absolute Error) were utilized to test the precision of predicted value. The patent data and the R&D data were based on Indicators of Industrial Technology data throught 1980 to 1996. The major results obtained in this study are as follows (1) The regression model is more useful for forecasting the trends of the number of patent applications and patents granted than the trend extrapolation method. (2) The variance of Theil's inequality is smaller in patent applications than in patent granted.

• Korean Management Science Review
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• v.10 no.1
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• pp.41-58
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• 1993

This research analyzes the level of technological growth in Korean telecommunication industry and suggests a technology development strategy. Comparative analysis of technological growth with the advanced countries was performed based on a new technology classification scheme. Technology indices were calculated by applying Analytical Hierarchy Process(AHP). The result of the AHP was put into forecasting models to have a glimse of future growth pattern and to suggest a long-term development strategy for telecommunication technology.

• Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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• v.5 no.3
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• pp.367-381
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• 2002

This study deals with the technological trends in the automobile recycling technologies. It first discusses the importance and current situation of automobile recycling. And then it discusses the technological trends in automobile recycling industry classifying the technologies into three groups: disassemblying, recycling, and design. It deals with recycling of major parts of automobiles and the design of automobile for recyclability. This study also contains a patent analysis of the technologies. Different patterns in the trend of patents among various conn-tries are discussed with the context of legal and industrial situation of each country And finally it discusses the forecasting for the future technological and legislative trends.

• Journal of Communications and Networks
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• v.16 no.4
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• pp.407-414
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• 2014

The Internet is a highly distributed and complex system consisting of billion devices and has become the field of various kinds of conflicts during the last two decades. As a matter of fact, various actors utilise the Internet for illicit purposes, such as for performing distributed denial of service attacks (DDoS) and for spreading various types of aggressive malware. Despite the fact that numerous services provide information regarding the threat level of the Internet, they are mostly based on information acquired by their sensors or on offline statistical sampling of various security applications (antivirus software, intrusion detection systems, etc.). This paper introduces proactive threat observatory system (PROTOS), an open-source early warning system that does not require a commercial license and is capable of estimating the threat level across the Internet. The proposed system utilises both a global and a local approach, and is thus able to determine whether a specific host is under an imminent threat, as well as to provide an estimation of the malicious activity across the Internet. Apart from these obvious advantages, PROTOS supports a large-scale installation and can be extended even further to improve the effectiveness by incorporating prediction and forecasting techniques.

• Korean Journal of Food Science and Technology
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• v.4 no.1
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• pp.53-54
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• 1972

• Journal of Information Management
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• v.35 no.1
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• pp.93-112
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• 2004

This study is intend to analyze the cited patent life time of US patent data via more objective way. It is based on exploratory approach which is one of various methods for technology forecasting. The life spans of cited patents of specific technological field are deduced from using informetric analysis of USPA database of KISTI, which is composed of US patent data covered from 1972 to present. The statistics of the results may help to estimate the economic life span of the specific technological area for technology valuation.

• Journal of Korea Multimedia Society
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• v.25 no.2
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• pp.345-352
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• 2022

Conducting AI-based fusion business due to the increment of ICT fusion medical device has been expanded. In addition, AI-based medical devices help change existing medical system on treatment into the paradigm of customized treatment such as preliminary diagnosis and prevention. It will be generally promoted to the change of medical device industry. Although the current demand forecasting of medical biotechnology commercialization is based on the method of Delphi and AHP, there is a problem that it is difficult to have a generalization due to fluctuation results according to a pool of participants. Therefore, the purpose of the paper is to predict demand forecasting for identifying promising technology based on building up big data in medical biotechnology. The development method is to employ candidate technologies of keywords extracted from SCOPUS and to use word2vec for drawing analysis indicator, technological distance similarity, and recommended technological similarity of top-level items in order to achieve a reasonable result. In addition, the method builds up academic big data for 5 years (2016-2020) in order to commercialize technology excavation on demand perspective. Lastly, the paper employs global data studies in order to develop domestic and international demand for technology excavation in the medical biotechnology field.

• Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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• v.19 no.4
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• pp.799-821
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• 2016

Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) are essential systems for Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) operations in current battlespace. And its importance will be getting extended because of complexity and uncertainty of battlespace. In this study, we forecast the advancement of 96 UAVs during the period of 32 years from 1982 to 2014 using TFDEA. TFDEA is a quantitative technology forecasting method which is characterized as non-parametric and non-statistical mathematical programming. Inman et al. (2006) showed that TFDEA is more accurate in forecasting compared with classical econometrics (e.g. regression). This study got 4.06% point of annual technological rate of change (RoC) for UAVs by applying TFDEA. And most UAVs in the period are inefficient according to the global SOA frontiers. That is because the countries which develop UAVs are in the middle class of technological level, so more than 60% of world UAVs markets are shared by North America and Europe which are advanced countries in terms of technological maturity level. This study could give some insights for UAVs development and its advancement. And also can be used for evaluating the adequacy of Required Operational Capability (ROC) of suggested future systems and managing the progress of Research and Development (R&D).

• Asian Journal of Innovation and Policy
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• v.9 no.2
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• pp.133-144
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• 2020

Korean economy has experienced a very rapid growth largely due to the change of the innovation system since the last half century. The recent outbreak of COVID-19 impacts the global economy as well as Korea's innovation system. In order to understand the influence of the shock to the Korean technological system, we have forecast the future of the system combining qualitative and quantitative techniques such as expert panel, cross impact analysis, and scenario planning. According to the results, we have identified 39 driving forces influencing the change of Korea's technological innovation system. Four scenarios have been suggested based on the predetermined factors and core uncertainties. In other words, uncertainties of emergence of the regions and global value chains generate four scenarios: regional growth, unstable hope, returning to the past, and regional conflicts. The 'regional growth' scenario is regarded as the most preferable, whereas the 'regional conflicts' scenario is unavoidable. In conclusion, we put forward some policy implications to boost the regional innovation system by exploiting the weakened global value chains in order to move on to the most preferable scenario away from the return to the past regime.

• Management Science and Financial Engineering
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• v.14 no.2
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• pp.89-104
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• 2008

Growth curves including Bass, Logistic and Gompertz functions are widely used in forecasting the market demand. Nonlinear least square method is often adopted for estimating the model parameters but it is difficult to set up the starting value for each parameter. If a wrong starting point is selected, the result may lead to erroneous forecasts. This paper proposes a method of selecting starting values for model parameters in estimating some growth curves by nonlinear least square method through grid search and transformation into linear regression model. Resealing the market data using the national economic index makes it possible to figure out the range of parameters and to utilize the grid search method. Application to some real data is also included, where the performance of our method is demonstrated.