• Title/Summary/Keyword: Supply Uncertainty

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An Improved Multilevel Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation to Analyse on Engineering Project Risk

  • LI, Xin;LI, Mufeng;HAN, Xia
    • The Journal of Economics, Marketing and Management
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    • v.10 no.5
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    • pp.1-6
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    • 2022
  • Purpose: To overcome the question that depends too much on expert's subjective judgment in traditional risk identification, this paper structure the multilevel generalized fuzzy comprehensive evaluation mathematics model of the risk identification of project, to research the risk identification of the project. Research design, data and methodology: This paper constructs the multilevel generalized fuzzy comprehensive evaluation mathematics model. Through iterative algorithm of AHP analysis, make sure the important degree of the sub project in risk analysis, then combine expert's subjective judgment with objective quantitative analysis, and distinguish the risk through identification models. Meanwhile, the concrete method of multilevel generalized fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is probed. Using the index weights to analyse project risks is discussed in detail. Results: The improved fuzzy comprehensive evaluation algorithm is proposed in the paper, at first the method of fuzzy sets core is used to optimize the fuzzy relation matrix. It improves the capability of the algorithm. Then, the method of entropy weight is used to establish weight vectors. This makes the computation process fair and open. And thereby, the uncertainty of the evaluation result brought by the subjectivity can be avoided effectively and the evaluation result becomes more objective and more reasonable. Conclusions: In this paper, we use an improved fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to evaluate a railroad engineering project risk. It can give a more reliable result for a reference of decision making.

E-commerce Readiness, Micro, Small, and Medium-Sized Enterprises (MSMEs), and Economic Growth: An Empirical Investigation

  • Anasuya Barik;Sidheswar Panda
    • Asian Journal of Innovation and Policy
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.246-260
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    • 2023
  • With the advent of COVID-19, the world economy has undergone enormous losses and unprecedented crises. Moreover, this pandemic has put a significant effect on all business organizations, comprising the micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) sector. MSMEs have been continuing to develop business strategies and are eager to compete in the market. The COVID-19 pandemic has shifted the full focus of MSMEs from 'business growth' to 'business survival' worldwide. E-commerce readiness plays a crucial role in a time of uncertainty and crisis during COVID-19 and affects the durability and sustainability of the business. This study attempts to study the readiness of online business and "E-commerce" adoption of MSMEs and its contribution to economic growth by utilizing both qualitative and quantitative techniques in the case of India. We use content analysis to determine the readiness of online business and Ecommerce in the post COVID-19 period. The result highlights the specific issues of this sector such as the shortage of resources and disruptions in the supply chain & logistical issues during the COVID-19 pandemic. Qualitative analysis discloses that almost half of the respondents adopt online platforms along with additional challenges to sustain their business during the pandemic. This study utilizes annual time series data for the period from 1973-74 to 2017-18 to understand the long-run relationship between India's GDP and MSMEs units. By utilizing the co-integration technique, this study reveals that there is a long-run relationship between MSME units and the economic growth of this country.

The Adoption and Diffusion of Semantic Web Technology Innovation: Qualitative Research Approach (시맨틱 웹 기술혁신의 채택과 확산: 질적연구접근법)

  • Joo, Jae-Hun
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.33-62
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    • 2009
  • Internet computing is a disruptive IT innovation. Semantic Web can be considered as an IT innovation because the Semantic Web technology possesses the potential to reduce information overload and enable semantic integration, using capabilities such as semantics and machine-processability. How should organizations adopt the Semantic Web? What factors affect the adoption and diffusion of Semantic Web innovation? Most studies on adoption and diffusion of innovation use empirical analysis as a quantitative research methodology in the post-implementation stage. There is criticism that the positivist requiring theoretical rigor can sacrifice relevance to practice. Rapid advances in technology require studies relevant to practice. In particular, it is realistically impossible to conduct quantitative approach for factors affecting adoption of the Semantic Web because the Semantic Web is in its infancy. However, in an early stage of introduction of the Semantic Web, it is necessary to give a model and some guidelines and for adoption and diffusion of the technology innovation to practitioners and researchers. Thus, the purpose of this study is to present a model of adoption and diffusion of the Semantic Web and to offer propositions as guidelines for successful adoption through a qualitative research method including multiple case studies and in-depth interviews. The researcher conducted interviews with 15 people based on face-to face and 2 interviews by telephone and e-mail to collect data to saturate the categories. Nine interviews including 2 telephone interviews were from nine user organizations adopting the technology innovation and the others were from three supply organizations. Semi-structured interviews were used to collect data. The interviews were recorded on digital voice recorder memory and subsequently transcribed verbatim. 196 pages of transcripts were obtained from about 12 hours interviews. Triangulation of evidence was achieved by examining each organization website and various documents, such as brochures and white papers. The researcher read the transcripts several times and underlined core words, phrases, or sentences. Then, data analysis used the procedure of open coding, in which the researcher forms initial categories of information about the phenomenon being studied by segmenting information. QSR NVivo version 8.0 was used to categorize sentences including similar concepts. 47 categories derived from interview data were grouped into 21 categories from which six factors were named. Five factors affecting adoption of the Semantic Web were identified. The first factor is demand pull including requirements for improving search and integration services of the existing systems and for creating new services. Second, environmental conduciveness, reference models, uncertainty, technology maturity, potential business value, government sponsorship programs, promising prospects for technology demand, complexity and trialability affect the adoption of the Semantic Web from the perspective of technology push. Third, absorptive capacity is an important role of the adoption. Fourth, suppler's competence includes communication with and training for users, and absorptive capacity of supply organization. Fifth, over-expectance which results in the gap between user's expectation level and perceived benefits has a negative impact on the adoption of the Semantic Web. Finally, the factor including critical mass of ontology, budget. visible effects is identified as a determinant affecting routinization and infusion. The researcher suggested a model of adoption and diffusion of the Semantic Web, representing relationships between six factors and adoption/diffusion as dependent variables. Six propositions are derived from the adoption/diffusion model to offer some guidelines to practitioners and a research model to further studies. Proposition 1 : Demand pull has an influence on the adoption of the Semantic Web. Proposition 1-1 : The stronger the degree of requirements for improving existing services, the more successfully the Semantic Web is adopted. Proposition 1-2 : The stronger the degree of requirements for new services, the more successfully the Semantic Web is adopted. Proposition 2 : Technology push has an influence on the adoption of the Semantic Web. Proposition 2-1 : From the perceptive of user organizations, the technology push forces such as environmental conduciveness, reference models, potential business value, and government sponsorship programs have a positive impact on the adoption of the Semantic Web while uncertainty and lower technology maturity have a negative impact on its adoption. Proposition 2-2 : From the perceptive of suppliers, the technology push forces such as environmental conduciveness, reference models, potential business value, government sponsorship programs, and promising prospects for technology demand have a positive impact on the adoption of the Semantic Web while uncertainty, lower technology maturity, complexity and lower trialability have a negative impact on its adoption. Proposition 3 : The absorptive capacities such as organizational formal support systems, officer's or manager's competency analyzing technology characteristics, their passion or willingness, and top management support are positively associated with successful adoption of the Semantic Web innovation from the perceptive of user organizations. Proposition 4 : Supplier's competence has a positive impact on the absorptive capacities of user organizations and technology push forces. Proposition 5 : The greater the gap of expectation between users and suppliers, the later the Semantic Web is adopted. Proposition 6 : The post-adoption activities such as budget allocation, reaching critical mass, and sharing ontology to offer sustainable services are positively associated with successful routinization and infusion of the Semantic Web innovation from the perceptive of user organizations.

Development and Validation of Cryopanel Cooling System Using Liquid Helium for a Satellite Test (액체헬륨을 이용한 위성시험용 극저온패널 냉각시스템 개발 및 검증)

  • Cho, Hyok-Jin;Moon, Guee-Won;Seo, Hee-Jun;Lee, Sang-Hoon;Hong, Seok-Jong;Choi, Seok-Weon
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers B
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    • v.34 no.2
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    • pp.213-218
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    • 2010
  • A cooling system utilizing liquid helium to chill the cryopanel (800 mm $\times$ 700 mm dimensions) down to 4.2 K was designed, implemented, and tested to verify the role of the cryopanel as a heat sink for the payload of a spacecraft inside the large thermal vacuum chamber (effective dimensions : 8 m ($\Phi$) $\times$ 10 m (L)) of KARI (Korea Aerospace Research Institute). Two LHe (Liquid Helium) Dewars, one for the main supply and the other for refilling, were used to supply liquid helium or cold helium gas into this cryopanel, and flow control for the target temperature of the cryopanel within requirements was done through fine adjustment of the pressure inside the LHe Dewars. The return helium gas from the cryopanel was reused as a thermal barrier to minimize the heat influx on the core liquid helium supply pipe. The test verified a cooling time of around three hours from the ambient temperature to 40 K (combined standard uncertainty of 194 mK), the capacity for maintaining the cryopanel at intermediate temperatures, and a 1 K uniformity over the entire cryopanel surface at around 40 K with 20 W cooling power.

The Development of RFID Utility Statistical Analysis Tool (RUSAT) in Comparison to Barcode for Logistics Activities (물류활동에서 RFID와 바코드 시스템의 효용성 비교를 위한 통계분석 도구(RUSAT) 개발)

  • Ha, Heon-Cheol;Park, Heung-Sun;Kim, Hyun-Soo;Choi, Yong-Jung
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.17 no.5
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    • pp.137-146
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    • 2012
  • In SCM(Supply Chain Management), a management paradigm where the customer satisfaction is to be achieved by minimizing the cost, reducing the uncertainty, and obtaining the overall optimization. As it performs the integrated operation of the paths of information, assets, and knowledge from the raw material providers to the retailers, the adoption of RFID(Radio Frequency Identification) in SCM could be expected to magnify the effectiveness of the system. However, there is a huge risk by deciding whether or not RFID system is adopted without the objective analysis under the uncertain circumstances. This research paper presents the statistical analysis methodologies for the comparison of RFID with Barcode on the aspect of utility and the statistical analysis tool, RUSAT, which was programmed for nonstatisticians' convenience. Assuming a pharmaceutical industry, this paper illustrates how the data were entered and analyzed in RUSAT. The results of this research are expected to be used not only for the pharmaceutical related company but also for the manufacturer, the whole-saler, and the retailer in the other logistic industries.

Food Materials for School Foodservices on High-quality Products, Local Products and Fresh-cut Products - Dietitian's Choice in Elementary, Middle and High Schools in Gyeong-gi Province - (학교급식 식재료로서 지역 농산물, 고품질농산물과 신선편이 채소의 이용현황과 필요에 관한 연구 - 경기지역 초.중.고등학교를 중심으로 -)

  • Kang, Heui-Yun;Jung, Eun-Hee;Rhie, Seung-Gyo
    • The Korean Journal of Community Living Science
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.397-411
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    • 2009
  • The use of local product foods and fresh-cut products, the dietitian's recognition, the required items and the quality for school foodservice was investigated to increase the consumption of high-quality agricultural products. Data from 578 elementary schools, 228 middle schools and 116 high schools were collected by school foodservice personnels in each regional Education Administration in Gyeong-gi province. The first criteria of buying food materials was reliability/safety for all school foodservice. The second criteria were the origin of the product and freshness/ripeness for elementary and middle schools and high school, respectively. The most important consideration for selecting a supplier was the quality of the material. The appearance/status of the food was the first factor for buying food materials. The origin and the seasonality were very important for buying farm products. Dietitians in Gyeong-gi province recognized the local products, and used them weekly. The advantages of using local products were the quick supply, freshness and safety. On the other hand, the disadvantages were the lack of information and the uncertainty of supply. Sixty eight percent of the subjects had experienced the high-quality agricultural products in school meals, but the frequency was low. The main reasons for not servicing high-quality agricultural products were the high cost and the lack of trust on the quality. Among fresh-cut products, seasonings and root vegetables were purchased most frequently, but leaf vegetables was 5.7% only. The purchase of fresh-cut products was not frequent, but usually satisfied. The advantages of fresh-cut products were the reduced workload and waste, but the reason for not using them were poor hygiene and the high price. The diverse supply system and the promotion of the local product foods would be necessary since the most food materials were purchased through suppliers. In addition, the problems related to the high cost and distrust should be resolved to expand the consumption of the high-quality agricultural products and the fresh-cut vegetables. The institutions for certifying the quality should be needed to increase the confidence of these products.

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At-site Low Flow Frequency Analysis Using Bayesian MCMC: I. Theoretical Background and Construction of Prior Distribution (Bayesian MCMC를 이용한 저수량 점 빈도분석: I. 이론적 배경과 사전분포의 구축)

  • Kim, Sang-Ug;Lee, Kil-Seong
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.41 no.1
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    • pp.35-47
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    • 2008
  • The low flow analysis is an important part in water resources engineering. Also, the results of low flow frequency analysis can be used for design of reservoir storage, water supply planning and design, waste-load allocation, and maintenance of quantity and quality of water for irrigation and wild life conservation. Especially, for identification of the uncertainty in frequency analysis, the Bayesian approach is applied and compared with conventional methodologies in at-site low flow frequency analysis. In the first manuscript, the theoretical background for the Bayesian MCMC (Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo) method and Metropolis-Hasting algorithm are studied. Two types of the prior distribution, a non-data- based and a data-based prior distributions are developed and compared to perform the Bayesian MCMC method. It can be suggested that the results of a data-based prior distribution is more effective than those of a non-data-based prior distribution. The acceptance rate of the algorithm is computed to assess the effectiveness of the developed algorithm. In the second manuscript, the Bayesian MCMC method using a data-based prior distribution and MLE(Maximum Likelihood Estimation) using a quadratic approximation are performed for the at-site low flow frequency analysis.

Studies on the Influence Factors of E-commerce Adoption: The Perspective of Suppliers' E-commerce (전자상거래 도입 영향요인들에 관한 통합적 연구: 공급업체 전자상거래를 중심으로)

  • Choe, Jong-Min
    • Information Systems Review
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.1-24
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    • 2013
  • This study empirically investigated inter-relationships among the influence factors on the adoption of e-commerce, which are classified as cause factor (i.e., perceived environmental uncertainty and competition), facilitators (i.e., perceived economic benefits, inter-organizational trust, suppliers' pressure and capability and asset specificity) and support factor (i.e., top management's support and organizational resource capability). The results of regression analyses showed that competition, inter-organizational trust, suppliers' pressure and capability, top management's support, and organizational resource capability have a positive impact on the adoption of e-commerce. In the analyses of inter-relationships among the influence factors, it was found that perceived environmental uncertainty positively influences suppliers' pressure and capability and perceived economic benefits, and competition has a positive impact on asset specificity. It was also observed that perceived economic benefits, inter-organizational trust and suppliers' pressure and capability positively affect top management's support, and inter-organizational trust and suppliers' pressure and capability have a positive impact on organizational resource capability. With mediating regression analyses, it was found that competition has an indirect impact on the adoption of e-commerce through the effect on perceived economic benefits, suppliers' pressure and capability, organizational resource capability and top management's support. The results of mediating regression analyses also showed that suppliers' pressure and capability and perceived economic benefits have indirect effects on the adoption of e-commerce through the effects on top management's support and organizational resource capability. From these results, it is concluded that intense competition causes the activation of facilitators, and the facilitators contribute to both the enhancement of top management support and the creation of organizational resource capability, which are directly linked to the adoption of e-commerce.

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Derivation of Flood Frequency Curve with Uncertainty of Rainfall and Rainfall-Runoff Model (강우 및 강우-유출 모형의 불확실성을 고려한 홍수빈도곡선 유도)

  • Kwon, Hyun-Han;Kim, Jang-Gyeong;Park, Sae-Hoon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.46 no.1
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    • pp.59-71
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    • 2013
  • The lack of sufficient flood data being kept across Korea has made it difficult to assess reliable estimates of the design flood while relatively sufficient rainfall data are available. In this regard, a rainfall simulation based derivation technique of flood frequency curve has been proposed in some of studies. The main issues in deriving the flood frequency curve is to develop the rainfall simulation model that is able to effectively reproduce extreme rainfall. Also the rainfall-runoff modeling that can convey uncertainties associated with model parameters needs to be developed. This study proposes a systematic approach to fully consider rainfallrunoff related uncertainties by coupling a piecewise Kernel-Pareto based multisite daily rainfall generation model and Bayesian HEC-1 model. The proposed model was applied to generate runoff ensemble at Daechung Dam watershed, and the flood frequency curve was successfully derived. It was confirmed that the proposed model is very promising in estimating design floods given a rigorous comparison with existing approaches.

Review on Applicability of Local Scour Depth Calculation Formula in River (하천 세굴심 산정을 위한 교각 세굴심 산정식의 적용성 검토)

  • Min, ByungYun;Chang, HyungJoon;Lee, HoJin;Kim, SungDuk
    • Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.1-9
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    • 2019
  • The basic analysis of Soil and structural mechanics for the bridge substructure affected by the flow of water is sufficient in the construction of such bridges, but the stability of scour resulting from hydraulic phenomena is insufficient. In addition, it is not enough to estimate the scour depth of the bridge which reflects the watershed characteristics of the domestic river because it uses the formula for calculating the scour depth of the overseas piers in calculating the scour depth of the bridge. In this study, the application of the CSU (1993) formula, which is currently applied to the national river design criteria, was reviewed between the two formulas after calculating the scour after calculating the scour by applying another bridge deck scour calculation formula to take into account the uncertainty in the calculation of scour. In this study, in addition to the CSU (1993) formula, which is currently applied to Korean river design criteria, another scour depth calculation formula is applied to calculate uncertainty in scour depth calculation, was reviewed between the two formulas. The review confirmed that the SSE (%) showed a difference of at least 2.08%, up to 91.23%, and SSEn(%) at least 0.19%, up to 415.91%, when compared to the measured depth of the pier based on the hydraulic model experiment and the depth of the pier calculated with the nine scour depth formulas in use. In other words, it is confirmed that there are many differences between the scouring formulas of piers. The results of this study are expected to be used to estimate scour depth in future river design.