• Title/Summary/Keyword: Structural Breaks

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Quantitative Comparisons on the Intrinsic Features of Foreign Exchange Rates Between the 1920s and the 2010s: Case of the USD-GBP Exchange Rate

  • Han, Young Wook
    • East Asian Economic Review
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.365-390
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    • 2016
  • This paper quantitatively compares the intrinsic features of the daily USD-GBP exchange rates in two different periods, the 1920s and the 2010s, under the same freely floating exchange rate system. Even though the foreign exchange markets in the 1920s seem to be much less organized and developed than in the 2010s, this paper finds that both the long memory volatility property and the structural break appear to be the common intrigue features of the exchange rates in the two periods by using the FIGARCH model. In particular, the long memory volatility properties in the two periods are found to be upward biased and overstated because of the structural breaks in the exchange markets. Thus this paper applies the Adaptive-FIGARCH model to consider the long memory volatility property and the structural breaks jointly. The main finding is that the structural breaks in the exchange markets affect the long memory volatility property significantly in the two periods but the degree of the long memory volatility property in the 1920s is reduced more remarkably than in the 2010s after the structural breaks are accounted for; thus implying that the structural breaks in the foreign exchange markets in the 1920s seem to be more significant.

Are Precious Metals Hedge Against Financial and Economic Variables?: Evidence from Cointegration Tests

  • YAQOOB, Tanzeela;IQBAL, Javed
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.81-91
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    • 2021
  • This paper investigates the long run hedging ability of precious metals against the risks associated with adverse conditions of economic and financial variables for Pakistan, the USA, China, and India. Monthly data of gold, silver, platinum, stock returns, exchange rate, industrial production, and inflation was collected for the selected economies. Saikkonen and Lutkepohl (2002) unit root test was employed to access the unit root properties of the data series and identify the break dates. Furthermore, this study used the Johansen cointegration test with and without structural breaks to identify the long-run relationship between metals prices and different financial and economic variables. The findings suggest that the time series under study have unit root problem at level with and without structural breaks. Without considering structural breaks, the Johansen trace test indicates that in Pakistan and China, gold, silver, and platinum hold a cointegrating relationship with macroeconomic and financial variables. For the US, gold indicates cointegration which supports the hedging ability of gold against inflation, stock, and industrial production in the long run. The results of the cointegration test after incorporating the structural breaks provide even stronger evidence of the long-run relationship of precious metals and consumer prices, exchange rate, and stock prices.

Structural Integrity of a Fuel Assembly for the Secondary Side Pipe Breaks (2차측 배관파단에 대한 핵연료 집합체의 구조 건전성)

  • Jhung, M. J.
    • Journal of KSNVE
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    • v.6 no.6
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    • pp.827-834
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    • 1996
  • The effect of pipe breaks in the secondary side is investigated as a part of the fuel assembly qualification program. Using the detailed dynamic analysis of a reactor core, peak responses for the motions induced from pipe breaks are obtained for a detailed core model. The secondary side pipe breaks such as main steam line and economizer feedwater line braksare considered because leak-before-break methodology has provided a technical basis for the elimination of double ended guillotine breaks of all high energy piping systems with a diameter of 10 inches or over in the primary side from the design basis. The dynamic responses such as fuel assembly shear force, bending moment, axial force and displacement, and spacer grid impact loads are carefully investigated. Also, the stress analysis is performed and the effect of the secondary side pipe breaks on the fuel assembly structural integrity under the faulted condition is addressed.

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Structural Breaks, Manufacturing Revolutions, and Economic Catch-up: Empirical Validation of Historical Evidence from South Korea

  • SALAHUDDIN, Taseer;YULEK, Murat A.
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.13-24
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    • 2022
  • The main goal of this study is to look at how South Korea can catch up to the rest of the world through policy-driven structural change and manufacturing revolutions. To achieve the objective, this study used annual data on real exports and real GDP from the World Development Indicator WDI of South Korea for the period 1960 to 2019. The study's goal is to use econometrics to detect this policy-driven structural change trend. Multiple nonlinear Granger causality test was used to accomplish this. The findings revealed structural breaks and nonlinearities in the dynamic link between South Korea's real GDP and real exports. Furthermore, results also show evidence of multiple structural breaks in South Korean data. South Korea's economic catch-up was the result of a constant reevaluation of industrial policies, readjustment, and structural change to constantly explore and utilize comparative advantage, realizing economies of scale at the global level, and reallocating and redistribution of resources towards productive sectors with high value-added output, according to econometric analysis. If South Korea would have not done this structural change this miracle to escape the middle-income trap would not have been possible. These findings support the descriptive evidence of structural change in favor of manufacturing revolutions and value addition industry development in South Korea.

The Test of Stochastic Convergence of Environment Emission and Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis in Asian Developing Countries (아시아 국가들 환경오염배출량의 확률수렴성과 환경쿠즈네츠곡선가설 검정)

  • Kim, Ji Uk
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.571-595
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    • 2010
  • This research applies an panel data stationarity and stochastic convergence test developed by Carrion-i-Silvestre et al. (2005), which has the advantage of considering multiple structural breaks and the presence of cross-section dependence in order to investigate the hypothesis that relative emission $CO_2$ per capita stochastically converge for 11 Asian countries from 1971~2007. We find that relative emission $CO_2$ per capita is stationary after the structural breaks and cross-section dependence are introduced into the model. We also investigate whether Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis exists in 11 Asian countries. For EKC test, using the panel cointegration tests of Banerjee and Carrion-i-Silvestre (2006) and Westerlund and Edgerton(2007), we find that relative emission $CO_2$ per capita and relative GDP per capita are cointegrated. However EKC hypothesis in 11 Asian countries is not supported.

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Contagion in Global Bond Markets

  • Sang-Kuck CHUNG;Vasila Shukhratovna ABDULLAEVA;Sun-Jae MOON
    • The Journal of Economics, Marketing and Management
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.27-36
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    • 2024
  • Purpose: The paper analyzes for detecting unexpected shocks such as global financial crisis and COVID-19 pandemic, and contagion between countries by capturing in the mean-shift, variance-covariance-shift, and skewness-coskewness-shift parameters of interest rates. Research design, data and methodology: A flexible multivariate model of interest rates is provided by allowing for regime switching and a joint skewed normal distribution. The model is applying to the structural breaks of crisis and contagion between the US and the selected global bond markets during the global financial crisis and COVID-19 pandemic, respectively. Inspection of the moment statistics weakly suggests a flight to safety to the US during the global financial crisis and to Canada during the COVID-19 pandemic. Results: The results indicate that risk averse investors had a higher risk appetite for the US and Canada assets during the crisis regimes, compared to their counterparts. Conclusions: The results show that coskewness contagion dominates correlation contagion, and coskewness contagion is significant for the Korea and Japan-US pairs for the global financial crisis and the Euro-US pair for the COVID-19 pandemic. All channels of structural breaks of crisis and contagion are significant when considered jointly, reinforcing the need to consider contagion and structural breaks during crises in a multivariate setting.

Modified Fixed-Threshold SMO for 1-Slack Structural SVMs

  • Lee, Chang-Ki;Jang, Myung-Gil
    • ETRI Journal
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    • v.32 no.1
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    • pp.120-128
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    • 2010
  • In this paper, we describe a modified fixed-threshold sequential minimal optimization (FSMO) for 1-slack structural support vector machine (SVM) problems. Because the modified FSMO uses the fact that the formulation of 1-slack structural SVMs has no bias, it breaks down the quadratic programming (QP) problems of 1-slack structural SVMs into a series of smallest QP problems, each involving only one variable. For various test sets, the modified FSMO is as accurate as existing structural SVM implementations (n-slack and 1-slack SVM-struct) but is faster on large data sets.

The Effect of Tributary Pipe Breaks on the Core Support Barrel Shell Responses (분기관파단이 노심지지배럴의 쉘응답에 미치는 영향)

  • Jhung, Myung-Jo;Hwan, Won-Gul
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.204-214
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    • 1993
  • Work on fracture mechanics has provided a technical basis for elimination of main coolant loop double ended guillotine breaks from the structural design basis of reactor coolant system. Without main coolant loop pipe breaks, the tributary pipe breaks must be considered as design bases until further fracture mechanics work could eliminate some of these breaks from design consideration. This paper determines the core support barrel shell responses for the 3 inch pressurizer spray line nozzle break which is expected to be the only inlet break remaining in the primary side after leak-before-break evaluation is extended to smaller size pipes in the near future. The responses are compared with those due to 14 inch safety injection nozzle break and main coolant loop pipe break. The results show that, when the leak-before-break concept is applied to the primary side piping systems with a diameter of 10 inches or over, the core support barrel shell responses due to pipe breaks in the primary side are negligible for the faulted condition design.

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Regional House Prices and the Ripple Effect in the Yangtze River Delta Region

  • Chang, Tengyuan;Deng, Xiaopeng;Tan, Yuting;Zhou, Qianwen
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2017.10a
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    • pp.62-72
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    • 2017
  • In this study, liner unit root tests and panel unit root tests to the ratio of city to regional house price were applied to examine the ripple effects across 28 cities in the Yangtze River Delta region. Then invert LM unit root tests with two structural breaks for 10 representative cities were conducted. The results showed that there is overwhelming evidence of the existence of ripple effect in the Yangtze River Delta region, while segmentation is restricted to a small group of cities in which there is no long-run relationship with the Yangtze River Delta region average; compared to no- and one-break case, there is overwhelming evidence of a ripple effect with the LM test with two structural breaks. Furthermore, the results of the Granger causality test showed that changes in house prices in Shanghai, Nanjing and Hangzhou have led to changes in house prices in other cities. The findings of this research make certain contributions to the improvements of research system of ripple effect among regional house prices in the Yangtze River Delta Region,and could be referenced by other markets of other cities.

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Chromosome Imbalances and Alterations in the p53 Gene in Uterine Myomas from the Same Family Members: Familial Leiomyomatosis in Turkey

  • Hakverdi, Sibel;Demirhan, Osman;Tunc, Erdal;Inandiklioglu, Nihal;Uslu, Inayet Nur;Gungoren, Arif;Erdem, Duygu;Hakverdi, Ali Ulvi
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.651-658
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    • 2013
  • Uterine leiomyomas (UL) are extremely common neoplasms in women of reproductive age, and are associated with a variety of characteristic choromosomal aberrations (CAs). The p53 gene has been reported to play a crucial role in suppressing the growth of a variety of cancer cells. Therefore, the present study investigated the effects of CAs and the p53 gene on ULs. We performed cytogenetic analysis by G-banding in 10 cases undergoing myomectomy or hysterectomy. Fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) with a p53 gene probe was also used on interphase nuclei to screen for deletions. In patients, CAs were found in 23.4% of 500 cells analysed, significantly more frequent than in the control group (p<0.001). In the patients, 76% of the abnormalities were structural aberrations (deletions, translocations and breaks), and only 24% were numerical. Deletions were the most common structural aberration observed in CAs. Among these CAs, specific changes in five loci 1q11, 1q42, 2p23, 5q31 and Xp22 have been found in our patients and these changes were not reported previously in UL. The chromosome breaks were more frequent in cases, from high to low, 1, 2, 6, 9, 3, 5, 10 and 12. Chromosome 22, X, 3, 17 and 18 aneuploidy was observed to be the most frequent among all numerical aberrations. We observed a low frequency of p53 losses (2-11%) in our cases. The increased incidence of autosomal deletions, translocations, chromatid breaks and aneuploidy, could contribute to the progression of the disease along with other chromosomal alterations.