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Numerical Modelling for the Dilation Flow of Gas in a Bentonite Buffer Material: DECOVALEX-2019 Task A (벤토나이트 완충재에서의 기체 팽창 흐름 수치 모델링: DECOVALEX-2019 Task A)

  • Lee, Jaewon;Lee, Changsoo;Kim, Geon Young
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
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    • v.30 no.4
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    • pp.382-393
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    • 2020
  • The engineered barrier system of high-level radioactive waste disposal must maintain its performance in the long term, because it must play a role in slowing the rate of leakage to the surrounding rock mass even if a radionuclide leak occurs from the canister. In particular, it is very important to clarify gas dilation flow phenomenon clearly, that occurs only in a medium containing a large amount of clay material such as a bentonite buffer, which can affect the long-term performance of the bentonite buffer. Accordingly, DECOVALEX-2019 Task A was conducted to identify the hydraulic-mechanical mechanism for the dilation flow, and to develop and verify a new numerical analysis technique for quantitative evaluation of gas migration phenomena. In this study, based on the conventional two-phase flow and mechanical behavior with effective stresses in the porous medium, the hydraulic-mechanical model was developed considering the concept of damage to simulate the formation of micro-cracks and expansion of the medium and the corresponding change in the hydraulic properties. Model verification and validation were conducted through comparison with the results of 1D and 3D gas injection tests. As a result of the numerical analysis, it was possible to model the sudden increase in pore water pressure, stress, gas inflow and outflow rate due to the dilation flow induced by gas pressure, however, the influence of the hydraulic-mechanical interaction was underestimated. Nevertheless, this study can provide a preliminary model for the dilation flow and a basis for developing an advanced model. It is believed that it can be used not only for analyzing data from laboratory and field tests, but also for long-term performance evaluation of the high-level radioactive waste disposal system.

The Study on the Prediction of Algae Occurrence by the Multiple Regression Analysis After Weir Construction at Namhan River (다중회귀분석을 이용한 남한강 내 보 건설 후 조류 발생량 예측)

  • Oh, Seung-Eun;Ahn, Hong-Kyu;Chae, Soo-Kwon
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.26 no.6
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    • pp.470-478
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    • 2017
  • This study was classified into two groups, normal season group and drought season group, by the cluster analysis using the weather and water quality data from 2012 to 2015, using SPSS 18 version. Also each cluster was classified into three spaces, Gangcheon, Yeoju and Ipoh weir. We performed the multiple regression analysis with each monthly data that concentration of Chl-a was more than algae warming level. 6 groups classified in time and space were analyzed by the correlation analysis between concentration of Chl-a and 3 weather, 11 water quality and discharge factors. We developed Chl-a prediction equations of each group with independent variables of the multiple regression analysis applying to the correlation result. The result of cluster analysis was that the period was divided into two groups, normal group(2012-2013) that total annual precipitation rate was normal and drought group(2014-2015) that total annual precipitation rate was less than 1,000 mm/hr, in time. The months that concentration of Chl-a was more than algae warming level in each group classified by cluster analysis were that the normal group was 3~8 and drought group was 3 and 6~10. The correlation result between Chl-a and weather, water quality and discharge factors for each 6 group was that relationships between Chl-a and water, discharge factors were high in the drought group more than in normal group at all weirs. This was influenced by velocity reduction and increasing HRT according to the intense drought. Weather, water quality and discharge factors that were high correlation with Chl-a were applied to independent variables of Chl-a prediction equations and each equations were developed. Among them, Each adjusted R square of Prediction equations for Chl-a in each group at Ipoh weir where is located in Namhan river downstream and is directly connected to Paldang dam were normal group = 0.920 and drought group = 0.818. It's showed the high linear.

Analysis on Suitability Light Intensity and Introduction Plan under the Indoor Lighting for the Native Evergreen Daphniphyllum macropodum (자생 상록 굴거리나무의 실내조명 하에서 적정광도 분석 및 도입방안)

  • Shin, Hyeon-Cheol;Yun, Jae-Gill;Choi, Kyoung-Ok
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.40 no.1
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    • pp.110-117
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    • 2012
  • This study was performed to determine light-adaptability under indoor lighting for Korean wild Daphniphyllum macropodum, and to provide an introduction plan for indoor spaces of landscape architecture. The experimental plants, Daphniphyllum macropodum were purchased from a farmhouse in Jejudo as anannualplant, and it was acclimatized in the glass-green house of the general farm of Gyeongnam National University of Science and Technology for40 days. The experiment was performed from February 15, 2010 to November 15, 2010. First, in the case of the fluorescent lamp, the growth and development condition was poor because the plants withered, or the leaves fell off under the 100lux to 500lux, but the condition under 1,000lux was good In the aspects of the number of leaves, form of the tree, photosynthesis rate in its body, and the value of sight, the best light intensity for the growth condition was under the 1,000lux. Second, in the case of the LED light, the growth and development condition was poor because the plants withered, or the leaves fell off under 100lux to 1,000lux, but the smooth growth and development was done under a more light intensity. The best intensity for the growth condition was under 2,000lux. Third, in the case of the three-wave light, the withering was serious by 1,000lux, and the growth and development was the worst amongst the four introduced lighting systems, therefore, growth under the three-wave light was incongruous. The best intensity for the growth condition was under 2,000lux. Fourth, in the case of the optical fiver, the withering did not existed under 100lux and growth was possible. The growth and development was the amongst in the four introduced lighting systems. Generally, in the more light intensity, more growth was observed, but the value of sight was higher under 1,000lux than under 2,000lux because the falling rate of leaves and the form of the tree was stable. The most effective light was under 1,000lux due to the high photosynthesis in its body. When Daphniphyllum macropodum is introduced into the indoor landscaping space considering the light, the optical fiber, fluorescent lamp, and LED light are suitable to introduce. The three-wave light is unfit. The most proper light intensity by the light source, in the case of the optical fiber, and fluorescent lamp, is 1,000lux, and, in the case of LED light, is 2,000lux. The wild Daphniphyllum macropodum is the species of tree to substitute the Schefflera actinophylla which is the introduced species, and it is expected to be use as the central tree in indoor spaces.

Study of the ENC reduction for mobile platform (모바일 플랫폼을 위한 전자해도 소형화 연구)

  • 심우성;박재민;서상현
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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    • 2003.05a
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    • pp.181-186
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    • 2003
  • The satellite navigation system is widely used for identifying a user's position regardless of weather or geographic conditions and also make effect on new technology of marine LBS(Location Based Service), which has the technology of geographic information such as the ENC. Generally, there are conceivable systems of marine LBS such as ECDIS, or ECS that use the ENC itself with powerful processor in installed type on ships bridge. Since the ENC is relatively heavy structure with dummy format for data transfer between different systems, we should reduce the ENC to small and compact size in order to use it in mobile platform. In this paper, we assumed that the mobile system like PDA, or Webpad can be used for small capability of mobile platform. However, the ENC should be updated periodically by update profile data produced by HO. If we would reduce the ENC without a consideration of update, we could not get newly updated data furthermore. As summary, we studied considerations for ENC reduction with update capability. It will make the ENC be useful in many mobile platforms for various applications.

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Patient's Selection for Extracorporeal Shock Wave Lithotripsy for Treatment of Common Bile Duct Stones Resistant to Endoscopic Extraction (체외충격파쇄석술 적용을 위한 총담관결석의 선택)

  • Lee, Won-Hong;Son, Soon-Yong;Kim, Chang-Bok;Park, Cheon-Kyoo;Kang, Seong-Ho;Ryu, Meung-Sun;Lee, Yong-Moon
    • Journal of radiological science and technology
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.105-110
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    • 2005
  • Background/Aim : Common bile duct (CBD) stones may cause jaundice, cholangitis, or pancreatitis. Extracorporeal shock wave lithotripsy (ESWL) may be needed whenever endoscopic procedure are failed to extract common bile duct stones. The aim of this study is to provide the standard for patient's best choice on ESWL for treatment of CBD stones resistant to endoscopic extraction. Materials and Methods : Fourty-six patients failed in endoscopic stone extraction including mechanical lithotripsy were treated by ESWL. In all patients, endoscopic sphincterotomy and nasobiliary drainage tube was done before ESWL using the ultrasonography for stone localization with a spark-gap type lithotriptor. Patients were sedated with an intravenous injection of 50 mg of Demerol. None were treated under general anesthesia. Results : Overall complete clearance rate of CBD stone was 89.1% (41/46). In 82.6% of the patients, the stones were extracted endoscopically after ESWL, and spontaneous passage was observed in 6.5%. In the clearance rate after ESWL, there were no noticeable differences with regard to number (single: 82.8%, two or three: 100%, more than three: 100%) and size of the stone (less than 33mm: 92.9%, 33 mm or larger: 83.3%), whereas there were significant differences with regard to the ratio of sum of long-axis length of the all stones to sum of long-axis length of the CBD excluding stone (1:2.4, 1:2.1) and diameter of the largest stone to diameter of CBD excluding stone (1:0.9, 1:0.4) for patients with complete clearance compared with those without. Conclusion : We propose that stones without the fragments are travelable sufficient space in CBD or extractable sufficient diameter of CBD regardless of stone size and number should be treated by other technique to prevent time and cost consuming, such as percutaneous transhepatic cholangioscopylithotomy.

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In Vitro Development of Bovine Nuclear Transfer Embryos Reconstructed with Fetal Fibroblasts (태아 섬유아세포로 재구성된 핵치환 소 수정란의 체외발달)

  • Koo, D.B.;Choi, Y.H.;Park, J.S.;Kim, H.N.;Kang, Y.K.;Lee, C.S.;Han, Y.M.;Park, H.D.;Lee, K.K.
    • Korean Journal of Animal Reproduction
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.407-417
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    • 2000
  • The present study was to examine effects of various electrical stimulus treatments used for electro-fusion on the preimplantation development of bovine nuclear transfer (NT) embryos with fetal fibroblast cells. Fetal fibroblast cells were isolated from one fetus at day 45 of gestation in Holstein cow, and passaged 3 to 4 times before being transferred into enucleated oocytes. Single fibroblast cells were individually placed into the perivitelline space of enucleated oocytes by using a micromanipulator. At first, the fusion and developmental rates of reconstructed oocytes were compared between different electric stimulation conditions. When fusion of the reconstructed oocyte was induced by different electric pulse periods (15, 30 and 45 $\mu$sec) at a DC pulse of 1.8 kV/cm, 15 (45.5%, 120/264) or 30 $\mu$ sec group (43.9%, 106/241) showed a higher fusion rate than 45 $\mu$sec group (23.2%, 58/250, P<0.05). However, no difference was detected in the development rate of the fused oocytes to blastocysts between groups. Next experiment was to examine the effects of different electrical field strengths (1.5, 1.8 and 2.1 kV/cm) for 15 $\mu$sec at electrofusion on in vitro development of the NT embryos. As results, there was no difference in the fusion and developmental rates of the NT embryos between electrical strength (P>0.05). Finally, developmental competence of bovine NT embryos with somatic cells was compared with IVF-derived embryos. Of enucleated oocytes fused with fibroblast cells, 27.4% (75/274) developed to the blastocyst stage, which is similar to that (24.5%, 58/237) of IVF-derived embryos. However, mean nuclei number of NT blastocysts was smaller than that of IVF-derived blastocysts. Thus, we have established an optimal condition (1.8 kV/cm, 15 $\mu$sec) for electric fusion of bovine NT oocytes with somatic cells. The present study indicates that bovine reconstructed embryos with somatic cells normally develop to blastocyst stage in vitro, although having smaller nuclei numbers of blastocysts as compared to IVF-derived embryos.

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Necessity to incorporate XR-based Training Contents Focused on Cable pulling using Winches in the Shipbuilding (윈치를 활용한 케이블 포설을 중심으로 고찰한 XR 기반 훈련 콘텐츠 도입의 필요성)

  • JongMin Lee;JongSeong Kim
    • Journal of Korea Society of Industrial Information Systems
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    • v.28 no.6
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    • pp.53-62
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    • 2023
  • This paper has suggested the necessity of introducing training contents using XR(Extended reality) technology as a way to lower the high rate of nursing accidents among unskilled technical personnel in domestic shipbuilding industry, focusing on cable pulling using winch. The occurrence rate of nursing accidents in the domestic shipbuilding industry was almost double(197.4%) (2017~2020) when compared with other manufacturing industries. In particular, it is worth noting that more than 31.8% of nursing accidents in the shipbuilding industry occurred among workers whose job experience is no more than 6 months. Most of new workers are seen to have hard time due to several factors such as lack of work information, inexperience, and unfamiliarity with the working environments. This indicates that it is essential to incorporate more effective training method that could help new workers become familiar with technical skills as well as working environments in a short period of time. Currently, education/training at the domestic shipyard is biased toward technical skills such as welding, painting, machine installation, and electrical installation. Contrary, even more important training required to get new workers used to the working environment has remained at a superficial level such as explaining ship building processes using 2D drawings. This may be the reason why it is inevitable to repeat similar training at OJT (On-the-Job Training) even at the leading domestic companies. Domestic shipbuilding industries have been attracting a lot of new workers thanks to recent economic recovery, which is very likely to increase the occurrence of disasters. In this paper, the introduction of training using XR technology was proposed, and as a specific example, the process of pulling cables using winches on ships was implemented as XR-based training content by using Unity. Using the developed content, it demonstrated that new workers can experience the actual work process in advance through simulation in a virtual space, thereby becoming more effective training content that can help new workers become familiar with the work environment.

A Study on the Meaning and Strategy of Keyword Advertising Marketing

  • Park, Nam Goo
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.8 no.3
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    • pp.49-56
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    • 2010
  • At the initial stage of Internet advertising, banner advertising came into fashion. As the Internet developed into a central part of daily lives and the competition in the on-line advertising market was getting fierce, there was not enough space for banner advertising, which rushed to portal sites only. All these factors was responsible for an upsurge in advertising prices. Consequently, the high-cost and low-efficiency problems with banner advertising were raised, which led to an emergence of keyword advertising as a new type of Internet advertising to replace its predecessor. In the beginning of 2000s, when Internet advertising came to be activated, display advertisement including banner advertising dominated the Net. However, display advertising showed signs of gradual decline, and registered minus growth in the year 2009, whereas keyword advertising showed rapid growth and started to outdo display advertising as of the year 2005. Keyword advertising refers to the advertising technique that exposes relevant advertisements on the top of research sites when one searches for a keyword. Instead of exposing advertisements to unspecified individuals like banner advertising, keyword advertising, or targeted advertising technique, shows advertisements only when customers search for a desired keyword so that only highly prospective customers are given a chance to see them. In this context, it is also referred to as search advertising. It is regarded as more aggressive advertising with a high hit rate than previous advertising in that, instead of the seller discovering customers and running an advertisement for them like TV, radios or banner advertising, it exposes advertisements to visiting customers. Keyword advertising makes it possible for a company to seek publicity on line simply by making use of a single word and to achieve a maximum of efficiency at a minimum cost. The strong point of keyword advertising is that customers are allowed to directly contact the products in question through its more efficient advertising when compared to the advertisements of mass media such as TV and radio, etc. The weak point of keyword advertising is that a company should have its advertisement registered on each and every portal site and finds it hard to exercise substantial supervision over its advertisement, there being a possibility of its advertising expenses exceeding its profits. Keyword advertising severs as the most appropriate methods of advertising for the sales and publicity of small and medium enterprises which are in need of a maximum of advertising effect at a low advertising cost. At present, keyword advertising is divided into CPC advertising and CPM advertising. The former is known as the most efficient technique, which is also referred to as advertising based on the meter rate system; A company is supposed to pay for the number of clicks on a searched keyword which users have searched. This is representatively adopted by Overture, Google's Adwords, Naver's Clickchoice, and Daum's Clicks, etc. CPM advertising is dependent upon the flat rate payment system, making a company pay for its advertisement on the basis of the number of exposure, not on the basis of the number of clicks. This method fixes a price for advertisement on the basis of 1,000-time exposure, and is mainly adopted by Naver's Timechoice, Daum's Speciallink, and Nate's Speedup, etc, At present, the CPC method is most frequently adopted. The weak point of the CPC method is that advertising cost can rise through constant clicks from the same IP. If a company makes good use of strategies for maximizing the strong points of keyword advertising and complementing its weak points, it is highly likely to turn its visitors into prospective customers. Accordingly, an advertiser should make an analysis of customers' behavior and approach them in a variety of ways, trying hard to find out what they want. With this in mind, her or she has to put multiple keywords into use when running for ads. When he or she first runs an ad, he or she should first give priority to which keyword to select. The advertiser should consider how many individuals using a search engine will click the keyword in question and how much money he or she has to pay for the advertisement. As the popular keywords that the users of search engines are frequently using are expensive in terms of a unit cost per click, the advertisers without much money for advertising at the initial phrase should pay attention to detailed keywords suitable to their budget. Detailed keywords are also referred to as peripheral keywords or extension keywords, which can be called a combination of major keywords. Most keywords are in the form of texts. The biggest strong point of text-based advertising is that it looks like search results, causing little antipathy to it. But it fails to attract much attention because of the fact that most keyword advertising is in the form of texts. Image-embedded advertising is easy to notice due to images, but it is exposed on the lower part of a web page and regarded as an advertisement, which leads to a low click through rate. However, its strong point is that its prices are lower than those of text-based advertising. If a company owns a logo or a product that is easy enough for people to recognize, the company is well advised to make good use of image-embedded advertising so as to attract Internet users' attention. Advertisers should make an analysis of their logos and examine customers' responses based on the events of sites in question and the composition of products as a vehicle for monitoring their behavior in detail. Besides, keyword advertising allows them to analyze the advertising effects of exposed keywords through the analysis of logos. The logo analysis refers to a close analysis of the current situation of a site by making an analysis of information about visitors on the basis of the analysis of the number of visitors and page view, and that of cookie values. It is in the log files generated through each Web server that a user's IP, used pages, the time when he or she uses it, and cookie values are stored. The log files contain a huge amount of data. As it is almost impossible to make a direct analysis of these log files, one is supposed to make an analysis of them by using solutions for a log analysis. The generic information that can be extracted from tools for each logo analysis includes the number of viewing the total pages, the number of average page view per day, the number of basic page view, the number of page view per visit, the total number of hits, the number of average hits per day, the number of hits per visit, the number of visits, the number of average visits per day, the net number of visitors, average visitors per day, one-time visitors, visitors who have come more than twice, and average using hours, etc. These sites are deemed to be useful for utilizing data for the analysis of the situation and current status of rival companies as well as benchmarking. As keyword advertising exposes advertisements exclusively on search-result pages, competition among advertisers attempting to preoccupy popular keywords is very fierce. Some portal sites keep on giving priority to the existing advertisers, whereas others provide chances to purchase keywords in question to all the advertisers after the advertising contract is over. If an advertiser tries to rely on keywords sensitive to seasons and timeliness in case of sites providing priority to the established advertisers, he or she may as well make a purchase of a vacant place for advertising lest he or she should miss appropriate timing for advertising. However, Naver doesn't provide priority to the existing advertisers as far as all the keyword advertisements are concerned. In this case, one can preoccupy keywords if he or she enters into a contract after confirming the contract period for advertising. This study is designed to take a look at marketing for keyword advertising and to present effective strategies for keyword advertising marketing. At present, the Korean CPC advertising market is virtually monopolized by Overture. Its strong points are that Overture is based on the CPC charging model and that advertisements are registered on the top of the most representative portal sites in Korea. These advantages serve as the most appropriate medium for small and medium enterprises to use. However, the CPC method of Overture has its weak points, too. That is, the CPC method is not the only perfect advertising model among the search advertisements in the on-line market. So it is absolutely necessary that small and medium enterprises including independent shopping malls should complement the weaknesses of the CPC method and make good use of strategies for maximizing its strengths so as to increase their sales and to create a point of contact with customers.

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The Impact of the Internet Channel Introduction Depending on the Ownership of the Internet Channel (도입주체에 따른 인터넷경로의 도입효과)

  • Yoo, Weon-Sang
    • Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.37-46
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    • 2009
  • The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced in May 2008 that U.S. retail e-commerce sales for 2006 reached $ 107 billion, up from $ 87 billion in 2005 - an increase of 22 percent. From 2001 to 2006, retail e-sales increased at an average annual growth rate of 25.4 percent. The explosive growth of E-Commerce has caused profound changes in marketing channel relationships and structures in many industries. Despite the great potential implications for both academicians and practitioners, there still exists a great deal of uncertainty about the impact of the Internet channel introduction on distribution channel management. The purpose of this study is to investigate how the ownership of the new Internet channel affects the existing channel members and consumers. To explore the above research questions, this study conducts well-controlled mathematical experiments to isolate the impact of the Internet channel by comparing before and after the Internet channel entry. The model consists of a monopolist manufacturer selling its product through a channel system including one independent physical store before the entry of an Internet store. The addition of the Internet store to this channel system results in a mixed channel comprised of two different types of channels. The new Internet store can be launched by the independent physical store such as Bestbuy. In this case, the physical retailer coordinates the two types of stores to maximize the joint profits from the two stores. The Internet store also can be introduced by an independent Internet retailer such as Amazon. In this case, a retail level competition occurs between the two types of stores. Although the manufacturer sells only one product, consumers view each product-outlet pair as a unique offering. Thus, the introduction of the Internet channel provides two product offerings for consumers. The channel structures analyzed in this study are illustrated in Fig.1. It is assumed that the manufacturer plays as a Stackelberg leader maximizing its own profits with the foresight of the independent retailer's optimal responses as typically assumed in previous analytical channel studies. As a Stackelberg follower, the independent physical retailer or independent Internet retailer maximizes its own profits, conditional on the manufacturer's wholesale price. The price competition between two the independent retailers is assumed to be a Bertrand Nash game. For simplicity, the marginal cost is set at zero, as typically assumed in this type of study. In order to explore the research questions above, this study develops a game theoretic model that possesses the following three key characteristics. First, the model explicitly captures the fact that an Internet channel and a physical store exist in two independent dimensions (one in physical space and the other in cyber space). This enables this model to demonstrate that the effect of adding an Internet store is different from that of adding another physical store. Second, the model reflects the fact that consumers are heterogeneous in their preferences for using a physical store and for using an Internet channel. Third, the model captures the vertical strategic interactions between an upstream manufacturer and a downstream retailer, making it possible to analyze the channel structure issues discussed in this paper. Although numerous previous models capture this vertical dimension of marketing channels, none simultaneously incorporates the three characteristics reflected in this model. The analysis results are summarized in Table 1. When the new Internet channel is introduced by the existing physical retailer and the retailer coordinates both types of stores to maximize the joint profits from the both stores, retail prices increase due to a combination of the coordination of the retail prices and the wider market coverage. The quantity sold does not significantly increase despite the wider market coverage, because the excessively high retail prices alleviate the market coverage effect to a degree. Interestingly, the coordinated total retail profits are lower than the combined retail profits of two competing independent retailers. This implies that when a physical retailer opens an Internet channel, the retailers could be better off managing the two channels separately rather than coordinating them, unless they have the foresight of the manufacturer's pricing behavior. It is also found that the introduction of an Internet channel affects the power balance of the channel. The retail competition is strong when an independent Internet store joins a channel with an independent physical retailer. This implies that each retailer in this structure has weak channel power. Due to intense retail competition, the manufacturer uses its channel power to increase its wholesale price to extract more profits from the total channel profit. However, the retailers cannot increase retail prices accordingly because of the intense retail level competition, leading to lower channel power. In this case, consumer welfare increases due to the wider market coverage and lower retail prices caused by the retail competition. The model employed for this study is not designed to capture all the characteristics of the Internet channel. The theoretical model in this study can also be applied for any stores that are not geographically constrained such as TV home shopping or catalog sales via mail. The reasons the model in this study is names as "Internet" are as follows: first, the most representative example of the stores that are not geographically constrained is the Internet. Second, catalog sales usually determine the target markets using the pre-specified mailing lists. In this aspect, the model used in this study is closer to the Internet than catalog sales. However, it would be a desirable future research direction to mathematically and theoretically distinguish the core differences among the stores that are not geographically constrained. The model is simplified by a set of assumptions to obtain mathematical traceability. First, this study assumes the price is the only strategic tool for competition. In the real world, however, various marketing variables can be used for competition. Therefore, a more realistic model can be designed if a model incorporates other various marketing variables such as service levels or operation costs. Second, this study assumes the market with one monopoly manufacturer. Therefore, the results from this study should be carefully interpreted considering this limitation. Future research could extend this limitation by introducing manufacturer level competition. Finally, some of the results are drawn from the assumption that the monopoly manufacturer is the Stackelberg leader. Although this is a standard assumption among game theoretic studies of this kind, we could gain deeper understanding and generalize our findings beyond this assumption if the model is analyzed by different game rules.

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A Study on Market Size Estimation Method by Product Group Using Word2Vec Algorithm (Word2Vec을 활용한 제품군별 시장규모 추정 방법에 관한 연구)

  • Jung, Ye Lim;Kim, Ji Hui;Yoo, Hyoung Sun
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.1-21
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    • 2020
  • With the rapid development of artificial intelligence technology, various techniques have been developed to extract meaningful information from unstructured text data which constitutes a large portion of big data. Over the past decades, text mining technologies have been utilized in various industries for practical applications. In the field of business intelligence, it has been employed to discover new market and/or technology opportunities and support rational decision making of business participants. The market information such as market size, market growth rate, and market share is essential for setting companies' business strategies. There has been a continuous demand in various fields for specific product level-market information. However, the information has been generally provided at industry level or broad categories based on classification standards, making it difficult to obtain specific and proper information. In this regard, we propose a new methodology that can estimate the market sizes of product groups at more detailed levels than that of previously offered. We applied Word2Vec algorithm, a neural network based semantic word embedding model, to enable automatic market size estimation from individual companies' product information in a bottom-up manner. The overall process is as follows: First, the data related to product information is collected, refined, and restructured into suitable form for applying Word2Vec model. Next, the preprocessed data is embedded into vector space by Word2Vec and then the product groups are derived by extracting similar products names based on cosine similarity calculation. Finally, the sales data on the extracted products is summated to estimate the market size of the product groups. As an experimental data, text data of product names from Statistics Korea's microdata (345,103 cases) were mapped in multidimensional vector space by Word2Vec training. We performed parameters optimization for training and then applied vector dimension of 300 and window size of 15 as optimized parameters for further experiments. We employed index words of Korean Standard Industry Classification (KSIC) as a product name dataset to more efficiently cluster product groups. The product names which are similar to KSIC indexes were extracted based on cosine similarity. The market size of extracted products as one product category was calculated from individual companies' sales data. The market sizes of 11,654 specific product lines were automatically estimated by the proposed model. For the performance verification, the results were compared with actual market size of some items. The Pearson's correlation coefficient was 0.513. Our approach has several advantages differing from the previous studies. First, text mining and machine learning techniques were applied for the first time on market size estimation, overcoming the limitations of traditional sampling based- or multiple assumption required-methods. In addition, the level of market category can be easily and efficiently adjusted according to the purpose of information use by changing cosine similarity threshold. Furthermore, it has a high potential of practical applications since it can resolve unmet needs for detailed market size information in public and private sectors. Specifically, it can be utilized in technology evaluation and technology commercialization support program conducted by governmental institutions, as well as business strategies consulting and market analysis report publishing by private firms. The limitation of our study is that the presented model needs to be improved in terms of accuracy and reliability. The semantic-based word embedding module can be advanced by giving a proper order in the preprocessed dataset or by combining another algorithm such as Jaccard similarity with Word2Vec. Also, the methods of product group clustering can be changed to other types of unsupervised machine learning algorithm. Our group is currently working on subsequent studies and we expect that it can further improve the performance of the conceptually proposed basic model in this study.