• Title/Summary/Keyword: Scenario prediction

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A Study on Prediction of Suspension Time of Unmanned Light Rail according to Safety Personal Deployment (안전요원 배치 여부에 따른 무인운전 경전철의 운행중단 시간예측 연구)

  • Sang Log Kwak
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.38 no.1
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    • pp.87-92
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    • 2023
  • The number of unmanned light rail train operators is continuously increasing in Korea. In a failure event during an operation due to the nature of the unmanned operation, recovery is performed based on the remote control. However, if remote recovery is not feasible, safety personnel arrive at the train to resume the train operation. There are regulations on safety personnel and the suspension time of the train operation. However, there is currently no rule for safety personnel deployment. Currently, railway operating organizations operate in three scenarios: safety personnel on board trains, stationed at stations, and deployed at major stations. Four major factors influence the downtime for each emergency response scenario. However, these four influencing factors vary too much to predict results with simple calculations. In this study, four influencing factors were considered as random variables with high uncertainty. In addition, the Monte Carlo method was applied to each scenario for the safety personnel deployment to predict train service downtime. This study found a 17% difference in train service suspension by safety personnel deployment scenario. The results of this study can be used in setting service goals, such as standards for future safety personnel placement and frequency of service interruptions.

User Intention-Awareness System for Goal-oriented Context-Awareness Service

  • Lee, Jung-Eun;Yoon, Tae-Bok;Lee, Jee-Hyong
    • International Journal of Fuzzy Logic and Intelligent Systems
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.154-158
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    • 2007
  • As the technology developed, the system is being developed as the structure that is adapted to the intelligent environment. Therefore, the existing situation information system couldn't provide satisfactory service to the user as it provides service only by the information which it received from the sensor. This paper analyzed the problems of the existing user intention awareness system and suggested user intention awareness system to provide a stable and efficient service that fits to the intention of the user compensating this. This paper has collected the behavior data based on the scenario of the sequential behavior course of the user that occurs at breakfast time in the kitchen which is the home domain environment thai is closely related to our lives. This scenario course also showed the flow that the goal intentional user intention awareness system acted that it suggested, and showed the sequential course processing the user behavior data by tables and charts.

Simulation of Water Pollution Accident with Water Quality Model (수질모형을 이용한 수질오염사고의 모의분석)

  • Choi, Hyun Gu;Park, Jun Hyung;Han, Kun Yeun
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.177-186
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    • 2014
  • Depending on the change of lifestyle and the improvement of people's living standards and rapid industrialization, urbanization of recent, demand for water is increasing rapidly. So emissions of domestic wastewater and various industrial waste water has increased, and water quality is worsening day by day. Therefore, in order to provide a measure against the occurrence of water pollution accident, this study was tried to simulate water pollution accident. This study simulated 2008 Gimcheon phenol accident using 1,2-D model, and analyze scenario for prevent of water pollution accident. Consequently the developed 1-D model presents high reappearance when compared with 2-D model, and has been able to obtain results in a short simulation run time. This study will contribute to the water pollution incident response prediction system and water quality analysis in the future.

Verification of a Dynamic Compartment Model for the Tritium Behavior in the Plants After Short HTO Release Using a BIOMOVS II Scenario

  • Park, Heui-Joo;Kang, Hee-Suk;Lee, Hansoo
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.35 no.2
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    • pp.171-177
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    • 2003
  • A dynamic compartment model was required for the prediction of radiological consequences of the tritiated vapor released from the nuclear facility after an accident. A computer code, ECOREA-T, was developed by incorporating the unit models for the evaluation of tritium behavior in the environment. Dry deposition of tritiated vapor from the atmosphere to the soil was calculated using a deposition velocity. Transport of tritium from the atmosphere to the plant was calculated using a specific activity model, and the result was compared with the Belot's analytic solution. Root uptake of tritiated water from the soil and formation of OBT from T were considered in the model. The ECOREA-T code was verified by comparing the results from the other computer codes using a scenario developed through BIOMOVS II study. The results showed good agreements.

Development of Response Scenario for a Simulated HNS Spill Incident (위험유해물질 유출사고 대응을 위한 가상시나리오 개발)

  • Lee, Moonjin;Oh, Sangwoo
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.20 no.6
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    • pp.677-684
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    • 2014
  • In response to possible HNS (Hazardous and Noxious Substance) spill accident, HNS spill accident scenario and response scenario were developed. The accident area listed in scenarios is the coastal area of Busan, and scenario for possible accident in the designated area and strategies to respond the accident were developed, respectively. The scenario for accident was developed by designating HNS spill according to risk evaluation of HNS and analysis of HNS spill probability along the coastal area of Busan, and then estimating possible and potential impact from the accident. The scenario for response has been suggested as a systematical responding operations in order to effectively reduce the estimated impact from the accident. The possible HNS spill accident on the seas around Busan, has been designated by the spillage of 1,000ton of xylene due to collision accident in Gamcheon Port, and the possible impacts occurred by the accident has been simulated with the help of the atmospheric and oceanic dispersion model of xylene. In the responding scenario for the accident, a phased strategies regarding emergency rescue of peoples, protection and recovery of xylene, protective measures for the responders, and post management of the accident have been suggested.

Water Supply Change Outlook for Geum River Basin Considering RCP Climate Change Scenario (RCP 기후변화 시나리오를 고려한 금강유역의 미래 용수공급 변화전망)

  • No, Sun-Hee;Jung, Kwan Sue;Park, Jin Hyeog;Ryoo, Kyong Sik
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.46 no.5
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    • pp.505-517
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    • 2013
  • In this study, water supply for Geum River Basin was calculated by regulating the future water supply of Dam with the future expected discharges. HadGEM2-AO, which is the climate change prediction model that KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration) recently introduced was used for this study. The data of weather stations within the Geum River basin was extracted with the new Greenhouse Gas RCP scenario. The runoff of Geum river basin was simulated using the ArcSWAT for the 1988~2010 period. After validating the model, the similarity of results between simulation and observation at the Yongdam Dam and Daecheong Dam was 92.25% and 95.40%, respectively, which shows a good agreement with observed data. As the result of analysis for the discharges, the discharges would increase 47.76% under the RCP4.5 scenario and 36.52% under the RCP8.5 scenario. Water balance analysis was conducted by the KModSim for predicting the water supply under the runoff variation. We analyzed the volume of water intake with national standard of water supply 95% by Dam Operation Manual. By the analysis under RCP4.5 scenario, $9.41m^3/s$, $24.82m^3/s$ of additional water supply is available on Yongdam Dam and Daecheong Dam. By the analysis under the RCP8.5 scenario, $6.48m^3/s$, $21.08m^3/s$ of additional water supply is available on Yongdam Dam and Daecheong Dam.

A Comparison of the Prediction of Sprinkler Response Time Applying Fire Models (스프링클러 반응시간 예측에 대한 화재모델의 비교)

  • 김종훈;김운형;이수경
    • Fire Science and Engineering
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.46-52
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    • 2001
  • To evaluate the usability of compartment fire models for predicting sprinkler response time, fire experiment was conducted and measured sprinkler response time. The experimental data was compared with zone model "FASTLite"and field model "FDS"and field Model "SMARTFIRE" A Compartment fire conducted in a 2.4 m by 3.6 m by 2.4 m ISO 9705 room and measured H.R.R was approximately 100.3 kW. In test, Sprinkler activation temperature used is $72^{\circ}c$ and responded at 198s. The output of FASTLite, SMARTFIRE and, FDS for this fire scenario were 209s, 183s, and 192s, respectively. As a results, prediction using FDS model approached to that of test very closely and other models showed good approximated results also.

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Proposal of Maintenance Scenario and Feasibility Analysis of Bridge Inspection using Bayesian Approach (베이지안 기법을 이용한 교량 점검 타당성 분석 및 유지관리 시나리오 제안)

  • Lee, Jin Hyuk;Lee, Kyung Yong;Ahn, Sang Mi;Kong, Jung Sik
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.38 no.4
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    • pp.505-516
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    • 2018
  • In order to establish an efficient bridge maintenance strategy, the future performance of a bridge must be estimated by considering the current performance, which allows more rational way of decision-making in the prediction model with higher accuracy. However, personnel-based existing maintenance may result in enormous maintenance costs since it is difficult for a bridge administrator to estimate the bridge performance exactly at a targeting management level, thereby disrupting a rational decision making for bridge maintenance. Therefore, in this work, we developed a representative performance prediction model for each bridge element considering uncertainty using domestic bridge inspection data, and proposed a bayesian updating method that can apply the developed model to actual maintenance bridge with higher accuracy. Also, the feasibility analysis based on calculation of maintenance cost for monitoring maintenance scenario case is performed to propose advantages of the Bayesian-updating-driven preventive maintenance in terms of the cost efficiency in contrast to the conventional periodic maintenance.

Prediction of Forest Succession in Daecheong Dam River Basin Area Using LANDIS-II (LANDIS-II를 활용한 대청댐 유역 식생천이 예측)

  • Moon, Geon-Soo;Kim, Sung-Yeol;Song, Won-Kyong;Choi, Jaeyong
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Environmental Restoration Technology
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.39-53
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    • 2022
  • The purpose of this study is to find out the applicability of LANDIS-II model to Korea. The case study was carried out in Daecheong Dam basin. In order to operate the model, a total of 63,107 cells of 100x100m unit were constructed, each cell consists of ecoregion map, initial communities map, plant physiological data, and climate change prediction data using SSP2-4.5 scenario. Forest distributions of year 2050 and 2100 were predicted by distribution intensity and interference among trees based on field surveys of 147 points in 2020. As a result, trees of decreased distribution area in the future are in the order of Quercus mongolica, Pinus rigida, Pinus densiflora and Robinia pseudoacacia, which characterized vulnerable to the effects of climate change or artificially planted trees. While warm climate trees of Quercus variabilis, Quercus serrata, Quercus acutissima and Quercus aliana are predicted to increase their distribution area in the order. These results analyzed using the LANDIS-II model are consistent with the studies on potential natural vegetation and succession tendency in Korea. In conclusion, the applicability of LANDIS-II model in Korea is highly effective and it is also expected to serve as a scientific basis for determining forest policies on afforestation and restoration.