Journal of Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회논문집)

Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회)
권호 표지
DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

Water Supply Change Outlook for Geum River Basin Considering RCP Climate Change Scenario

RCP 기후변화 시나리오를 고려한 금강유역의 미래 용수공급 변화전망

  • 노선희 (충남대학교 공과대학 토목공학과) ;
  • 정관수 (충남대학교 공과대학 토목공학과) ;
  • 박진혁 (K-water 수자원연구소) ;
  • 류경식 (K-water 수자원연구소)
  • Received : 2012.12.13
  • Accepted : 2013.02.19
  • Published : 2013.05.31
Download PDF
⟨ Previous Next ⟩

Abstract

In this study, water supply for Geum River Basin was calculated by regulating the future water supply of Dam with the future expected discharges. HadGEM2-AO, which is the climate change prediction model that KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration) recently introduced was used for this study. The data of weather stations within the Geum River basin was extracted with the new Greenhouse Gas RCP scenario. The runoff of Geum river basin was simulated using the ArcSWAT for the 1988~2010 period. After validating the model, the similarity of results between simulation and observation at the Yongdam Dam and Daecheong Dam was 92.25% and 95.40%, respectively, which shows a good agreement with observed data. As the result of analysis for the discharges, the discharges would increase 47.76% under the RCP4.5 scenario and 36.52% under the RCP8.5 scenario. Water balance analysis was conducted by the KModSim for predicting the water supply under the runoff variation. We analyzed the volume of water intake with national standard of water supply 95% by Dam Operation Manual. By the analysis under RCP4.5 scenario, $9.41m^3/s$, $24.82m^3/s$ of additional water supply is available on Yongdam Dam and Daecheong Dam. By the analysis under the RCP8.5 scenario, $6.48m^3/s$, $21.08m^3/s$ of additional water supply is available on Yongdam Dam and Daecheong Dam.

본 연구에서는 기후변화에 따른 금강유역의 미래 유출량을 산정해 댐별 용수공급 변화량을 산정하였다. GCM은 최근 국립기상연구소가 도입한 영국기후변화 예측모델인 HadGEM2-AO를 사용하였고 새로운 온실가스 시나리오인 RCP시나리오를 금강유역내 기상관측소로 추출하였다. ArcSWAT모형을 이용해 1988년부터 2011년까지의 과거 유출모의를 수행하였으며 금강권역 내 대표 지점인 용담댐 및 대청댐 지점의 유입량과 최종 방류부의 유출량 분석값을 비교한 결과 모의치와 실측치가 각각 92.25%, 95.40%로 일치하는 것으로 나타나 모형의 적용성을 확인하였다. 또한 새로운 온실가스 시나리오하에서의 미래 유출량을 분석한 결과 RCP4.5 시나리오 하에서 평균 47.76%, RCP8.5 시나리오 하에서 평균 36.52%가량 유출증가가 일어날 것으로 예측되었으며 특히 가을철과 겨울철에 증가율이 높았다. 유출변화에 따른 용수공급 변화를 전망하기 위하여 KModSim으로 물수지 모형을 구축하여 추가 취수량 변화를 분석하였다. 이수안전도 95%유지조건 하에서 취수가능량을 분석한 결과, RCP4.5 시나리오 하에서 용담댐과 대청댐 각각 $9.41m^3/s$, $24.82m^3/s$가 더 취수가능하며 RCP8.5 시나리오 하에서는 $6.48m^3/s$, $21.08m^3/s$가 더 취수 가능한 것으로 전망되었다.

Keywords

References

  1. Ahn, J.H., Yoo, C.S., and Yoon, Y.N. (2001). "An Analysis of Hydrologic Changes in Daechung Dam Basin using GCM Simulation Results due to Global Warming." Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, KWRA, Vol. 34, No. 4, pp. 335-345.
  2. Ahn, S.R., Park, G.A., Shin, Y.H., and Kim, S.J. (2009a). "Assessment of the Potential Water Supply Rate of Agricultural Irrigation Facilities Using MODSIM -For Geum River Basin-." Journal of KoreaWater Resources Association, KWRA, Vol. 42, No. 10, pp. 825-843. https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2009.42.10.825
  3. Ahn, S.R., Park, M.J., Park, G.A., and Kim, S.J. (2009b). "Assessing Future Climate Change Impact on Hydrologic Components of Gyeongancheon Watershed." Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, KWRA, Vol. 42, No. 1, pp. 33-50. https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2009.42.1.33
  4. Arnold, J.G., Srinivasan, R., Muttiah, R.S., and Williams, J.R. (1998). "Large Area Hydrologic Modeling and Assessment Part I : Model Development." Journal of the American Water Resources Association, Vol. 34, No. 1, pp. 73-89. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.1998.tb05961.x
  5. Bae, D.H., Jung, I.W., and Lee, B.J. (2007). "Outlook on Variation of Water Resources in Korea under SRES A2 Scenario." Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, KWRA, Vol. 40, No. 12, pp. 921-930. https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2007.40.12.921
  6. Hyun, Y.K., Kim, M.J., Khan, S.Y., Kim, J.S., Cho, C.H., Baek, H.J., Lee, H.S., and Lee, J.H. (2012). "Performance Assessment and Future Prospect on Climate Model between HadGEM2-AO used for RCP Climate Change Scenarios Computation at National Institute of Meteorological Research and Model Participant in the CMIP5." Proceedings of the Spring Meeting of Korean Meteorological Society 2012, KMS, pp. 25-26.
  7. Kang, D.H. (2007). An Impact assessment of climate change on water resources for the Geum River basin. M.S. dissertation, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea.
  8. Kang, S.U., Cheong, T.S., Hwang, M.H., and Ko, I.H. (2007). "Validations of Water Resources Planning by K-MODSIM Model." Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference 2007, KWRA, pp. 2044-2048.
  9. Kim, B.S., Kim, H.S., Seoh, B.H., and Kim, N.W. (2004a). "Impact of Climate Change on Yongdam Dam Basin." Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, KWRA, Vol. 37, No. 3, pp. 185-193. https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2004.37.3.185
  10. Kim, U.T., Yoo, C.S., Lee, D.R., and Lee, J.Y. (2004b). "Effects of Climate Change on the Streamflow for the Daechung Dam Watershed." Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, KWRA, Vol. 37, No. 4, pp. 483-486. https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2004.37.4.305
  11. Korea Meteorological Administration (2011). Case Studies to Understand and take Advantage of Climate Change Scenarios.
  12. Korea Water Resources Corporation (2008). Decision Support System, K-MODSIM Manual Ver. 1.1.
  13. Korea Water Resources Corporation (2010a). A Study for the Generation of Corresponding Plan on Climate Change for Future Water Resources Management (1th).
  14. Korea Water Resources Corporation (2010b). Dam Operation Manual.
  15. Lee, G.M., Yi, J.E., Shim, S.J., and Ko, S.K. (1999). "Water Resources Evaluation using a Network Optimization Model." Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, KWRA, Vol. 32, No. 2, pp. 143-152.
  16. Lee, H.J. (a Translator) (2008). Six Degrees (the Author: Lynas M., 2008). Sejongbooks.
  17. Legates, D.R., and McCabe, G.J. (1999). "Evaluating the Use of "Goodness-of-Fit" Measures in Hydrologic and Hydroclimatic Model Validation."Water Resources Research, Vol. 35, No. 1, pp. 233-241. https://doi.org/10.1029/1998WR900018
  18. Nash, J.E., and Sutcliffe, J.V. (1970). "River Flow Forecasting through Conceptual Models Part I-A Discussion of Principles." Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 10, No. 3, pp. 282-290. https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(70)90255-6
  19. National Institute of Meteorological Research (2011). Climate Change Scenarios Report 2011 for IPCC Assesment Report 5.
  20. Park, J.H., Kwon, H.H., and No, S.H. (2011). "Outlook of Discharge for Daecheong and Yongdam Dam Watershed Using A1B Climate Change Scenario Based RCM and SWAT Model." Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, KWRA, Vol. 44, No. 12, pp. 929-940. https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2011.44.12.929

Cited by

  1. Projection of Future Water Supply Sustainability in Agricultural Reservoirs under RCP Climate Change Scenarios vol.56, pp.4, 2014, https://doi.org/10.5389/KSAE.2014.56.4.059
  2. Uncertainty Characteristics in Future Prediction of Agrometeorological Indicators using a Climatic Water Budget Approach vol.57, pp.2, 2015, https://doi.org/10.5389/KSAE.2015.57.2.001
  3. Analysis of Rainfall-Runoff Characteristics on Bias Correction Method of Climate Change Scenarios vol.31, pp.3, 2015, https://doi.org/10.15681/KSWE.2015.31.3.241
  4. Characteristics of Daily Precipitation Data Based on the Detailed Climate Change Ensemble Scenario Depending on the Regional Climate Models and the Calibration vol.15, pp.4, 2015, https://doi.org/10.9798/KOSHAM.2015.15.4.261
  5. Nn Evaluation of Climate Change Effects on Pollution Loads of the Hwangryong River Watershed in Korea vol.48, pp.3, 2015, https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2015.48.3.185
  6. Trend Analysis of Projected Climate Data based on CMIP5 GCMs for Climate Change Impact Assessment on Agricultural Water Resources vol.57, pp.5, 2015, https://doi.org/10.5389/KSAE.2015.57.5.069
  7. Effect of Climate Change Scenarios and Regional Climate Models on the Drought Severity-Duration-Frequency Analysis vol.16, pp.2, 2016, https://doi.org/10.9798/KOSHAM.2016.16.2.351
  8. Projection of Climate Change with Uncertainties: 1. GCM and RCP Uncertainties vol.14, pp.5, 2014, https://doi.org/10.9798/KOSHAM.2014.14.5.317
  9. Evaluation and Calibration Method Proposal of RCP Daily Precipitation Data vol.15, pp.2, 2015, https://doi.org/10.9798/KOSHAM.2015.15.2.79
  10. A Comparison Study of Runoff Projections for Yongdam Dam Watershed Using SWAT vol.48, pp.6, 2015, https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2015.48.6.439
  11. Estimation of Design Flood for the Gyeryong Reservoir Watershed based on RCP scenarios vol.57, pp.1, 2015, https://doi.org/10.5389/KSAE.2015.57.1.047
  12. Improving Reservoir Operation Criteria to Stabilize Water Supplies in a Multipurpose Dam: Focused on Nakdong River Basin in Korea vol.10, pp.9, 2018, https://doi.org/10.3390/w10091236