• 제목/요약/키워드: Scenario factors

검색결과 442건 처리시간 0.024초

철도 사상사고 위험도 평가를 위한 사고 시나리오 모델 개발에 관한 연구 (Development of Accident Scenario Models for the Risk Assessment of Railway Casualty Accidents)

  • 박찬우;왕종배;조연옥
    • 한국안전학회지
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    • 제24권3호
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    • pp.79-87
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    • 2009
  • The objective of this study is to develop accident scenario models for the risk assessment of railway casualty accidents. To develop these scenario models, hazardous events and hazardous factors were identified by gathering various accident reports and information. Then, the accident scenario models were built up. Each accident scenario model consists of an occurrence scenario model and a progress scenario model. The occurrence scenario refers to the occurrence process of the event before the hazardous event. The progress scenario means the progress process of the event after the hazardous event. To manage a large amount of accident/incident data and scenarios, a railway accident analysis information system was developed using railway accident scenario models. To test the feasibility of the developed scenario models, more than 800 domestic railway casualty accidents that occurred in 2004 and 2005 were investigated and quantitative and qualitative analyses were performed using the developed information system.

System dynamic modeling and scenario simulation on Beijing industrial carbon emissions

  • Wen, Lei;Bai, Lu;Zhang, Ernv
    • Environmental Engineering Research
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    • 제21권4호
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    • pp.355-364
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    • 2016
  • Beijing, as a cradle of modern industry and the third largest metropolitan area in China, faces more responsibilities to adjust industrial structure and mitigate carbon emissions. The purpose of this study is aimed at predicting and comparing industrial carbon emissions of Beijing in ten scenarios under different policy focus, and then providing emission-cutting recommendations. In views of various scenarios issues, system dynamics has been applied to predict and simulate. To begin with, the model has been established following the step of causal loop diagram and stock flow diagram. This paper decomposes scenarios factors into energy structure, high energy consumption enterprises and growth rate of industrial output. The prediction and scenario simulation results shows that energy structure, carbon intensity and heavy energy consumption enterprises are key factors, and multiple factors has more significant impact on industrial carbon emissions. Hence, some recommendations about low-carbon mode of Beijing industrial carbon emission have been proposed according to simulation results.

흡입 노출 모델 알고리즘의 구성과 시나리오 노출량 비교 (Model Algorithms for Estimates of Inhalation Exposure and Comparison between Exposure Estimates from Each Model)

  • 박지훈;윤충식
    • 한국산업보건학회지
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    • 제29권3호
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    • pp.358-367
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    • 2019
  • Objectives: This study aimed to review model algorithms and input parameters applied to some exposure models and to compare the simulated estimates using an exposure scenario from each model. Methods: A total of five exposure models which can estimate inhalation exposure were selected; the Korea Ministry of Environment(KMOE) exposure model, European Centre for Ecotoxicology and Toxicology of Chemicals Targeted Risk Assessment(ECETOC TRA), SprayExpo, and ConsExpo model. Algorithms and input parameters for exposure estimation were reviewed and the exposure scenario was used for comparing the modeled estimates. Results: Algorithms in each model commonly consist of the function combining physicochemical properties, use characteristics, user exposure factors, and environmental factors. The outputs including air concentration ($mg/m^3$) and inhaled dose(mg/kg/day) are estimated applying input parameters with the common factors to the algorithm. In particular, the input parameters needed to estimate are complicated among the models and models need more individual input parameters in addition to common factors. In case of CEM, it can be obtained more detailed exposure estimates separating user's breathing zone(near-field) and those at influencing zone(far-field) by two-box model. The modeled exposure estimates using the exposure scenario were similar between the models; they were ranged from 0.82 to $1.38mg/m^3$ for concentration and from 0.015 to 0.180 mg/kg/day for inhaled dose, respectively. Conclusions: Modeling technique can be used for a useful tool in the process of exposure assessment if the exposure data are scarce, but it is necessary to consider proper input parameters and exposure scenario which can affect the real exposure conditions.

Does Financial Behavior Influence Financial Well-being?

  • CHAVALI, Kavita;MOHAN RAJ, Prasanna;AHMED, Riyaz
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • 제8권2호
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    • pp.273-280
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    • 2021
  • Financial behavior and financial well-being are two closely related aspects of an individual's financial decision making. This study attempts to investigate the extent to which financial behavior influences financial well-being in the Indian scenario. The data is collected using a structured questionnaire from a sample of 150 respondents. The study employs Financial Management Behaviour Scale (FMBS) (Dew & Xiao, 2012) to measure financial behavior. Factor analysis and multiple regression are performed to find the influence of financial behavior on financial well-being. The findings of the study suggest that except for credit commitment all the other behavioral factors like future security, savings and investments, credit indiscipline, and financial consciousness have a significant impact on the financial well-being of an individual in the Indian scenario. The regression coefficients of financial well-being are strongly determined by financial consciousness. The study is a contribution to the existing behavioral studies literature and the model used identifies the factors that influence the financial well-being in the Indian scenario. The study is conducted during the year 2020, so the results could have been influenced by the economic scenario of the period. The results of the study can be used by financial advisors to understand the financial well-being in the Indian scenario.

다중 지진 시나리오를 고려한 원전 격납구조물의 조건부 평균 스펙트럼 기반 지진취약도 평가 (Seismic Fragility Assessment of NPP Containment Structure based on Conditional Mean Spectra for Multiple Earthquake Scenarios)

  • 박원호;박지훈
    • 한국지진공학회논문집
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    • 제23권6호
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    • pp.301-309
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    • 2019
  • A methodology to assess seismic fragility of a nuclear power plant (NPP) using a conditional mean spectrum is proposed as an alternative to using a uniform hazard response spectrum. Rather than the single-scenario conditional mean spectrum, which is the conventional conditional mean spectrum based on a single scenario, a multi-scenario conditional mean spectrum is proposed for the case in which no single scenario is dominant. The multi-scenario conditional mean spectrum is defined as the weighted average of different conditional mean spectra, each one of which corresponds to an individual scenario. The weighting factors for scenarios are obtained from a deaggregation of seismic hazards. As a validation example, a seismic fragility assessment of an NPP containment structure is performed using a uniform hazard response spectrum and different single-scenario conditional mean spectra and multi-scenario conditional mean spectra. In the example, the number of scenarios primarily influences the median capacity of the evaluated structure. Meanwhile, the control frequency, a key parameter of a conditional mean spectrum, plays an important role in reducing logarithmic standard deviation of the corresponding fragility curves and corresponding high confidence of low probability of failure (HCLPF) capacity.

차세대에너지시스템 구축을 위한 친환경 도시계획 시나리오 검토 (An Analysis of Examination of Eco-City Planning Scenario for Constructing Urban Integrated Energy System)

  • 여인애;이정재;윤성환
    • 한국태양에너지학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국태양에너지학회 2009년도 추계학술발표대회 논문집
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    • pp.181-184
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    • 2009
  • This study aimed at framing alternative urban planning scenarios reflecting urban planning factors, performing urban climate simulation and evaluating eco-friend and low energy characteristics of each scenario on the viewpoint of urban temperature and energy savings on the target of the costal city including Haeundae District in Busan The results are as follows. 1)The fact that urban higher temperature is approximately 2.5 times higher in the building constructed area than whole urban area was represented severe higher temperature phenomenon in the built-up area. Ground greening, water scenario and soil scenario could be expected peek air temperature alleviating effect in order. Especially water scenario had significant effect(maximum $2.5^{\circ}C$) on lowering of air temperature.

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저전압에서의 통전전류를 이용한 인체의 동저항 측정 및 예측 (Measurement and Estimation of Dynamic Resistance of the Human Body Using Body Current at Low-Voltage Levels)

  • 김두현;강동규;김상철
    • 한국안전학회지
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    • 제16권1호
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    • pp.37-42
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    • 2001
  • The severity of electric shock is entirely dependent on body resistance. When the human body becomes a part of electric circuit, the body resistance is given as a function of shock scenario. Factors which consist of applied voltage, shock duration, body current path and contact area, etc.. The body resistance is defined as the voltage applied to subjects divided by the body current. To secure safety of the subjects, the experiment is conducted on 10 subjects, the body current is limited to 4mA. And only three factors under many shock scenario conditions are used to determine the body resistance. The three factors are the applied voltage, the current pathway and the contact area. The object of this work is to estimate the dynamic resistance of the human body as a function of applied voltage using the body current at low-voltage levels. The data of the body current at low-voltage levels are extrapolated to high-voltage levels using two analytic functions with specified constants calculated by numerical method. Also we can provide permissible body voltage for various copper electrodes on the basis of the data determined with the dynamic resistance and the body current.

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Assessment of REDD+ Suitable Area for Sustainable Forest Management in Paraguay

  • Park, Jeongmook;Lee, Yongkyu;Lim, Byeongmin;Lee, Jungsoo
    • Journal of Forest and Environmental Science
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    • 제36권3호
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    • pp.187-198
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    • 2020
  • This study extracted deforestation area and degraded forestland area, which are potential REDD+ (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation) project candidate areas in Paraguay using Land Cover Map (LCM) and Tree Cover Map (TCM). The REDD+ project objectives scenarios were set three stages: 'afforestation and economic efficiency scenario', 'local capacity reinforcement scenario', and 'Infrastructure-oriented scenario'. And then, we evaluated the project unit suitable area of the REDD+ project. All scenarios selected the evaluation factors for each scenario in addition to the area ratio factors for deforestation area and degraded forestland area and weighted values were extracted by assigning category scores. As a result of the three scenarios comparison analysis, Concepcion state score was the highest. Within Concepcion state, the Belon district had the highest score, making it appropriate as a project unit REDD+ project candidate area in Paraguay, while the San Carlos district had the lowest score. This study can be used as basic data for selecting REDD+ project candidate area in Paraguay, and it is expected to contribute sufficiently to REDD+ project if additional data or information of social, cultural and economic sectors are secured.