• 한국건설관리학회논문집
• /
• 제13권6호
• /
• pp.94-106
• /
• 2012

최근 국내외적으로 활발히 추진되고 있는 복합용도 도시재생사업의 경우, 사업초기 계획의 불확실성, 자금조달의 어려움, 사업비 증가 및 사업기간 지연 등으로 인하여 리스크 및 불확실성이 증가되고 있는 추세이다. 이처럼 급격한 사회 경제적 변화에 대응하고 리스크 감소를 통한 주체별 편익의 최적화를 유도하기 위해서는, 사업초기단계에서의 정확한 계획과 함께 사업의 생애주기를 고려한 리스크 기반의 변화관리 프로세스가 요구된다. 또한 변화관리 프로세스는 업무프로세스와 연계하여 변화요인 대한 측정 및 평가, 대응할 수 있는 방안이 마련되어야 한다. 하지만 건설분야에서의 변화관리에 관한 연구는 조직, 리더쉽, 사상 등의 인문/사회학적 측면에 국한되어 이루어지고 있다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 복합용도 도시재생사업에서의 체계적인 변화관리를 수행하기 위하여 리스크 기반의 변화요인을 추출할 수 있는 MECA(Metrix for Evaluation of Risk based Configuration factors Alternatives)방법론과 변화에 대한 사업비, 사업기간, 리스크를 통합하여 평가할 수 있는 3DAM(Three-Dimensional Area Measurement Method)과 CII(Configuration Innovation Index) 방법론을 개발하여, 변화에 유기적으로 대응할 수 있는 변화관리 프로세스를 제안하였다.

• 한국건설관리학회논문집
• /
• 제10권5호
• /
• pp.135-147
• /
• 2009

최근 해외건설 시장은 진출국 투자 현지화 요구 등 기업의 장기적 투자를 필요로 하는 프로젝트가 증가하는 경향을 보이고 있어, 건설기업 입장에서 개별 프로젝트 중심의 한시적 의사결정보다는 중 장기적인 관점에서 투자를 고려해야하는 복합적인 진출의사결정 상황에 대한 판단을 요구하고 있다. 따라서 중 장기적 관점에서 해당 진출국 시장의 리스크를 분석하고 해당 진출국의 시장성 진출여부 등을 합리적으로 평가할 수 있는 체계가 기업 경쟁력의 핵심이 된다고 할 수 있다. 하지만 이러한 기업의 시장진출 의사결정과 관련하여 전통적으로 재무적 가치평가를 위해 활용되어 온 현금흐름할인법은 시장의 변동성이나 불확실성을 고려하는 데에 한계를 가지고 있다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 실물옵션 분석에 기초하여, 해외 건설시장진출 안의 평가에 있어 시장의 불확실성을 반영할 수 있는 모델을 개발하고자 하였다. 제안된 시장진출 의사결정모델은 실물옵션 분석을 통해 진출 여부 국가 유형 등과 같은 주요 의사결정 항목들을 통합적으로 고려하여 진출 안을 평가할 수 있으며, 시나리오 분석을 통해 제안된 시장진출의사결정 모델의 분석과정을 제시함으로써 활용성을 검증하였다. 본 연구의 시장진출 의사결정모델의 활용을 통해 해외 건설시장 진출을 계획하는 건설기업의 합리적 의사결정을 지원할 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

• 한국항만경제학회지
• /
• 제31권3호
• /
• pp.1-14
• /
• 2015

본 연구의 목적은 몬테카를로 시뮬레이션을 활용하여 현금흐름할인법의 순현재가치 분석에 필요한 용선수익과 3개월 리보금리, 해체가격을 예측하여 미래 불확실성을 경감시킬 수 있는 선박의 가치를 측정하고자 했다. 정확한 연구분석을 위해 총 10,000회의 시뮬레이션을 수행하였으며, 연구 결과의 실증 분석을 위해 2010년 기준 선박 도입에 따른 선박 가치 분석을 일반적인 현금흐름할인법과 몬테카를로 시뮬레이션을 활용한 확률론적 현금흐름할인법을 비교 분석하였다. 본 연구의 분석 결과 지난 2010년 기준 몬테카를로 시뮬레이션을 활용하여 현금흐름할인법을 시행할 경우 일반적인 현금흐름할인법을 통한 결과보다 부정적인 순현재가치가 산출되어 선주들의 무분별한 선박발주에 경각심을 일으키는 계기가 될 수 있었다. 본 연구에서 사용한 몬테카를로 시뮬레이션을 활용한 확률론적 현금흐름할인법 기반의 선박 가치평가방법은 확률분포를 통해 기존 현금흐름할인법에서의 고정된 현재가치가 아닌 미래의 불확실성에 대한 변수를 반복 검증함으로서 선주들이 현금흐름에 대한 유동성 리스크에 대처할 수 있는 정보를 제공한다는 가치를 가지고 있다.

• Journal of Genetic Medicine
• /
• 제4권1호
• /
• pp.1-5
• /
• 2007

Unprecedented amount of genetic information being generated from the result of Human Genome Project (HGP) and advances in genetic research is already forcing changes in the paradigm of health and disease. The ultimate goal of genetic medicine is to use genetic information and technology to develop new ways of treatment or even prevention of the disease on an individual level for 'personalized medicine'. Genetics is play ing an increasingly important role in the diagnosis, monitoring and management of common multifactorial diseases in addition to rare single-gene disorders. While wide range of genetic testing have provided benefits to patients and family, uncertainties surrounding test interpretation, the current lack of available medical options for the diseases, and risks for discrimination and social stigmatization may remain to be resolved. However an increasing number of genetic tests are becoming commercially available, including direct to consumer genetic testing, yet public is often unaw are of their clinical and social implications. The personal nature of information generated by a genetic test, its power to affect major life decisions and family members, and its potential misuse raise important ethical considerations. Therefore appropriate genetic counseling is needed for patient to be informed with the benefits, limitations and risks of genetic tests, prior to informed consent for the tests. Physician also should be familiar with the legal and ethical issues involved in genetic testing to tell patients how w ell a particular genetic risk factor relates with likelihood of disease, and be able to provide appropriate genetic counseling. Genetic counseling become a mandatory requirement as global standard for many genetic testing such as prenatal diagnosis, presymtomatic DNA diagnostic tests and cancer susceptibility gene test for familial cancer syndrome. In oder to meet the challenge of genetic medicine of 21 century in korean health care system, professional education program and certification board for medical genetics specialist including non-MD genetic counselors should be addressed by medical society and regulatory policy of national health insurance reimbursement for genetic counseling to be in place to promote the implementation of clinical genetic service including genetic counseling for proper genetic testing.

• Toxicological Research
• /
• 제19권1호
• /
• pp.1-12
• /
• 2003

New breeding method by genetic engineering is expected as a key technology to solve food shortage due to the growing world population in the year 2000s. Many genetically modified organisms (GMOs) were already developed and the commercial cultivation had started. The first GMO, Flavr Savr tomato, which rotted at a much slower pace than ordinary ones, was developed in US in 1994. Since then, over than 70 different agricultural products including corn, cotton, soybean, papaya, potato, and squash made with genetically modified plants are reportedly on sale worldwide. Supporters favor the GMOs because they have greater yields, longer shelf lives and stronger resistance to disease and insects. On the other hand, opponents say that the supporters ignore a potential danger that they may damage the environment as well as human beings. To assure the safe development and use of GMOs as food and other biotech products, the possible risks on biological environment and human health should be throughly examined and regulated by developer and government. Because the biosafety problem is a global, environmental, and trade issue, a new international treaty is under development. The Cartagena Protocol on Biosafety was adopted at the 1 st Extraordinary Conference of Parties of the Convention on Biological Diversity which was held at Mont-real, Canada, Jan. 29th, 2000. The adoption of the Protocol is seen as a breakthrough in that it is based on the" Precautionary Principle" despite scientific uncertainties surrounding potential risks that GMOs may inflict on human health and the environment and that it has laid the ground for introduction of specific steps to handle international trading of GMOs. In this paper, the authors would like to introduce the current status and perspective of environmental and human risk assessment of GMOs.t of GMOs.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
• /
• 제49권2호
• /
• pp.411-425
• /
• 2017

Using a probabilistic safety assessment, a risk evaluation framework for an aircraft crash into an interim spent fuel storage facility is presented. Damage evaluation of a detailed generic cask model in a simplified building structure under an aircraft impact is discussed through a numerical structural analysis and an analytical fragility assessment. Sequences of the impact scenario are shown in a developed event tree, with uncertainties considered in the impact analysis and failure probabilities calculated. To evaluate the influence of parameters relevant to design safety, risks are estimated for three specification levels of cask and storage facility structures. The proposed assessment procedure includes the determination of the loading parameters, reference impact scenario, structural response analyses of facility walls, cask containment, and fuel assemblies, and a radiological consequence analysis with dose-risk estimation. The risk results for the proposed scenario in this study are expected to be small relative to those of design basis accidents for best-estimated conservative values. The importance of this framework is seen in its flexibility to evaluate the capability of the facility to withstand an aircraft impact and in its ability to anticipate potential realistic risks; the framework also provides insight into epistemic uncertainty in the available data and into the sensitivity of the design parameters for future research.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
• /
• 제39권3호
• /
• pp.205-212
• /
• 2006

Objectives: In spite of the recent increased concern for Asian dust storms, there are few studies concerning how dangerous the general public recognizes these dust storms to be. This study examined the public's perceptions of the risk of the Asian dust storms and also the source of the information concerning the risk. Methods: A telephone interview survey using a standardized questionnaire was done for the adults living in Seoul and its metropolitan area from May 15th, 2003 to May 16th, 2003. The contents of the questionnaire were the sociodemographic characteristics, the perceptions of risk to the Asian dust storms, and the coping strategy of the study participants. Results: The study participants get their information on Asian dust storms mainly from TV newscasts and they have a good knowledge of them. They regard it as one of the most dangerous health risks, along with dioxin. They think that it is associated with allergic rhinitis, conjunctivitis and bronchial asthma, etc. Of the 500 study participants, 201 (40.2%) persons suffered bodily discomforts during the Asian dust storm period. Conclusions: Although there are uncertainties about the health risks of Asian dust storms, the public thinks these dust storms are very dangerous to health in many ways This negative perception will not disappear easily. To fill the gap of the public's perceptions of the risk and the objective evidence of its health effects, more studies about its health effects and the methods to reduce exposure are required.

• 한국환경보건학회지
• /
• 제32권2호
• /
• pp.186-191
• /
• 2006

Metal contamination of medicinal herbs is of growing concern because of their potential adverse health effects. In this study, metal exposures were estimated and their potential health risks were preliminarily evaluated using available data including metal contamination levels and consumption estimates of herbal medicine in Korea. Consumption and contamination data of 34 medicinal herbs abundantly used in Oriental medicine in Korea were used in this study. Lead, mercury, arsenic, cadmium, cobalt, and chrome were identified as contaminants of potential health concerns. Even based on a conservative exposure scenario, i.e., consuming 5 times more herbal medicine with 95th percentile contamination levels, health risks associated with herbal medicine consumption were estimated to be minuscule. Herbal consumption was 0.3% of the provisional tolerable daily intake levels recommended by Joint Expert Committee on Food Additives (JECFA) of WHO/FAO. However, it should be noted that there are several important assumptions and uncertainties associated with this evaluation: This study was conducted for only 34 types of medicinal herbs of which consumption and metal contamination data were available. In addition, there are no reliable herbal medicine consumption data among Korean population. The pattern and amount of herbal (medicine) consumption in Korea need to be investigated in order to conduct more refined risk assessment associated with metal contamination in medicinal herbs.

• 한국건설관리학회논문집
• /
• 제9권4호
• /
• pp.101-110
• /
• 2008

건설공사의 성공적인 수행을 위한 다양한 건설관리기법들 중 리스크관리기법은 프로젝트 규모의 대형화, 신공법 적용 등에 의한 불확실한 요인의 증가에 의해 그 중요성이 부각되고 있다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 현장실무자들의 공정리스크 관리 업무를 지원하기 위해 공종별 공사프로세스 중심의 공정리스크 확인방법과 현장별 특성이 반영된 공정리스크 중요도 지수를 개발하였으며, 향후 타 현장에서의 적용을 고려한 공정 리스크 중요도 보정방법을 제안하였다. 또한 공정리스크 요인별 대응방안을 현장에서 공사일정에 따라 검색하고, 공정정보와 연계된 공정리스크 관리 업무의 출력기능을 갖춘 공정 리스크 관리지원 시스템 프로토타입을 개발하였다. 공정리스크 관리지원 시스템은 건설현장 실무자들이 공정리스크 관리업무를 수행하는 데 필요한 지식을 제공하여, 의사결정지연에 따른 공기 지연을 방지할 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

• 산업경영시스템학회지
• /
• 제45권4호
• /
• pp.31-41
• /
• 2022

As the environmental impacts of fossil fuel energy sources increase, the South Korean government has tried to change non-environmental-friendly enery sources to environmental-friendly energy sources in order to mitigate environmental effects, which lead to global warming and air pollution. With both a limited budget and limited time, it is essential to accurately evaluate the economic and environmental effects of renewable energy projects for the efficient and effective operation of renewable energy plants. Although the traditional economic evaluation methods are not ideal for evaluating the economic impacts of renewable energy projects, they can still be used for this purpose. Renewable energy projects involve many risks due to various uncertainties. For this reason, this study utilizes a real option method, the Geske compound model, to evaluate the renewable energy projects on Jeju Island in terms of economic and environmental values. This study has developed an economic evaluation model based on the Geske compound model to investigate the influences of flexibility and uncertainty factors on the evaluation process. This study further conducts a sensitivity analysis to examine how two uncertainty factors (namely, investment cost and wind energy production) influence the economic and environmental value of renewable energy projects.