• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk scenario

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Derivation of Soil Fluorine Standards Based on a Human Health Risk Assessment Method (위해성 평가 기법에 따른 토양 불소 기준안 연구)

  • Seung-Woo Jeong
    • Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.14-22
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    • 2024
  • This study established risk-based fluoride soil contamination standards according to the Korean Soil Contaminant Risk Assessment Guidelines (SRAG). Ten exposure scenarios were evaluated, broadly categorized into Scenario 1, which used the default parameters from the current SRAG, and Scenario 2, which used the latest exposure factors and bio-concentration factors. Fluoride soil standards corresponding to a total hazard index (HI) of 1.0 were determined for each scenario. For children in agricultural areas, the derived risk-based soil fluoride standard was 70 mg/kg for Scenario 1 and 27 mg/kg for Scenario 2. In industrial areas, the risk-based fluoride soil standard was 2200 mg/kg in Scenario 1 and 2300 mg/kg in Scenario 2. This study clearly demonstrated that the crop ingestion exposure pathway exerted predominent influence on the estimated human health risk standards. Additionally, using the Added Risk Approach and considering soil background concentrations, the total fluoride soil standards for residential areas ranged from 232 mg/kg to 444 mg/kg, while the standards for industrial areas ranged from 2405 mg/kg to 2674 mg/kg.

Scenario Planning and Risk Failure Mode Effect and Analysis (RFMEA) based Management

  • Paul, Virendra Kumar;Basu, Chaitali
    • Journal of Construction Engineering and Project Management
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.24-29
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    • 2016
  • This paper elaborates the significance of scenario planning in risk management, and presents an integrated approach which takes into account the 'Risk Events' derived from scenario planning for risk prioritisation. This research integrates scenario planning with Risk Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (RFMEA) through examples from construction litigations of project schedule and cost overrun cases as a simplified approach to project risk management. The proposed methodology incorporates scenarios developed from realistic events of dispute and arbitration cases from construction projects, and thereby increasing potential to foresee risks and their effects well in advance. The results from this methodology shall be validated against outcome of survey study conducted by KPMG-PMI (2013) on project schedule and cost overruns that was based on Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) Project Monitoring data for 2012-13.

A Product Risk Assessment based on Scenario for Safety Management (제품안전관리를 위한 시나리오 기반의 리스크 평가기법 연구)

  • Suh, Jungdae
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.12 no.8
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    • pp.101-112
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    • 2014
  • In this study, a risk assessment method based on scenario for the product safety management in Korea has been developed and proposed. To this end, Korea's related regulations for product safety management should be analyzed first, and the risk assessment method necessary for the enforcement of the regulations is presented by itemizing the method into the case of general injury and toxic substances. The features of the method presented in this study are as follows: (i) It is a method based on the injury scenario which can occur during the use of product. (ii) It assesses a risk based on the probability of the scenario and the severity of injury. (iii) In the case of toxic substances, it assesses a risk considering the hazard of the toxic substances on the human body and the severity of injury. To determine the probability of the injury scenario, this study has decomposed the scenario into several configuration factors and estimates each factor's probability to calculate the whole scenario's probability. The results of risk assessment through the method of this study are presented and it is shown that the method can be applied to the product classification for the product safety management.

Development of Accident Scenario Models for the Risk Assessment of Railway Casualty Accidents (철도 사상사고 위험도 평가를 위한 사고 시나리오 모델 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Chan-Woo;Wang, Jong-Bae;Cho, Yun-ok
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.79-87
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    • 2009
  • The objective of this study is to develop accident scenario models for the risk assessment of railway casualty accidents. To develop these scenario models, hazardous events and hazardous factors were identified by gathering various accident reports and information. Then, the accident scenario models were built up. Each accident scenario model consists of an occurrence scenario model and a progress scenario model. The occurrence scenario refers to the occurrence process of the event before the hazardous event. The progress scenario means the progress process of the event after the hazardous event. To manage a large amount of accident/incident data and scenarios, a railway accident analysis information system was developed using railway accident scenario models. To test the feasibility of the developed scenario models, more than 800 domestic railway casualty accidents that occurred in 2004 and 2005 were investigated and quantitative and qualitative analyses were performed using the developed information system.

A Study on the EPS Process of Quantitative Risk Assessment for the Safety Decision Making (EPS 공정의 정량적 위험성 평가를 통한 안전의사결정에 관한 연구)

  • 정재희;김형석;최광석;이영순
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.62-69
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    • 1999
  • The quantitative risk assessment and consequence analysis by accident scenario in the process of EPS(Expendable Poly Stylene) reaction process are conducted. And the decision making process is studied followed by selecting various alternatives to safety management and facility improvement. The result are as follows; 1) The object of decision making through comprehensive risk assessment are the scenario which can cause four major accident, which are made by process analysis, work analysis and hazard identification. 2) Frequency analysis of ETA, FTA, HRA and consequence analysis of accident to each have been conducted. The each frequency values are yielded $9.2{\times}10_{-5}/yr$ to scenarios $1, 8.2{\times}10^{-4}/yr$ to scenario 2, $4.5{\times}10^{-6}/yr$ scenario 3 and $1.8{\times}10^{-7}/yr$ to scenario 4. The each scenarios have been conducted consequence analysis. 3) The calculated values have been obtained 4.00 to scenario 1, 3.25 to scenario 2, 2.43 to scenario 3 and 1.34 to scenario 4, as the weight value had been applied to the quantitative and normalized criteria of all components. As a risk criteria, scenario 1 have been selected, which is the most dangerous scenario as a result of ranking the scenario. 4) According to the importance of FTA and contribute to scenario 1, the cost-benefit values are yielded $8.05\times10^5[₩/yr]$ to final alternative(Al), $1.55{\times}10^5[₩/yr]$ to final alternative(A2) and $2.32{\times}10^5[₩/yr]$ to final alternative(A3). As a result of final alternative(Al) has been selected, which is the most optimized alternative.

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Management of Risk Scenarios based on Ground Conditions under Construction of a Subsea Tunnel (해저터널 시공중 지반조건별 위험 시나리오 관리기법)

  • Park, Eui-Seob;Shin, Hee-Soon;Shin, Yong-Hoon;Kim, Taek-Gon
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.275-286
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    • 2009
  • In order to establish the causes and measures for technical risks that occur in various ground conditions when a subsea tunnel is excavated, it is important to configure expected risk scenarios. In addition, when the risk scenarios are classified because the scenario that occurs along all tunnel route and the scenario limited to some area are considered together, a logical framework with systematic and organized responses can be provided for project managements. In this research, project risk scenarios and management elements were configurated, and the project schedule was established for the management techniques to the risk scenario. The risk scenarios expected in a subsea tunnel were classified into a common risk scenario and a special risk scenario, and the concept which can combine with the project management elements was derived.

Flood Risk Assessment Based on Bias-Corrected RCP Scenarios with Quantile Mapping at a Si-Gun Level (분위사상법을 적용한 RCP 시나리오 기반 시군별 홍수 위험도 평가)

  • Park, Jihoon;Kang, Moon Seong;Song, Inhong
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.55 no.4
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    • pp.73-82
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    • 2013
  • The main objective of this study was to evaluate Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios-based flood risk at a Si-Gun level. A bias correction using a quantile mapping method with the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution was performed to correct future precipitation data provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). A series of proxy variables including CN80 (Number of days over 80 mm) and CX3h (Maximum precipitation during 3-hr) etc. were used to carry out flood risk assessment. Indicators were normalized by a Z-score method and weighted by factors estimated by principal component analysis (PCA). Flood risk evaluation was conducted for the four different time periods, i.e. 1990s, 2025s, 2055s, and 2085s, which correspond to 1976~2005, 2011~2040, 2041~2070, and 2071~2100. The average flood risk indices based on RCP4.5 scenario were 0.08, 0.16, 0.22, and 0.13 for the corresponding periods in the order of time, which increased steadily up to 2055s period and decreased. The average indices based on RCP8.5 scenario were 0.08, 0.23, 0.11, and 0.21, which decreased in the 2055s period and then increased again. Considering the average index during entire period of the future, RCP8.5 scenario resulted in greater risk than RCP4.5 scenario.

Seismic Scenario Simulation and Its Applications on Risk Management in Taiwan

  • Yeh, Chin-Hsun
    • 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2009.02b
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    • pp.13-24
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    • 2009
  • This paper introduces various kinds of applications of the scenario-based seismic risk assessment in Taiwan. Seismic scenario simulation (SSS) is a GIS-based technique to assess distribution of ground shaking intensity, soil liquefaction probability, building damages and associated casualties, interruption of lifeline systems, economic losses, etc. given source parameters of an earthquake. The SSS may integrate with rapid earthquake information release system to obtain valuable information and to assist in decision-making processes to dispatch rescue and medical resources efficiently. The SSS may also integrate with probabilistic seismic hazard analysis to evaluate various kinds of risk estimates, such as average annual loss and probable maximum loss in one event, in a probabilistic sense and to help proposing feasible countermeasures.

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Project Risk Management & Observational Method for soft ground improvement (연약지반을 대상으로 한 프로젝트 리스크와 현장계측의 과제와 대책)

  • Imanishi, Hajime
    • Proceedings of the Korean Geotechical Society Conference
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    • 2006.10a
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    • pp.509-514
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    • 2006
  • Considering the risk management, there are many examples and various studies for the corporation risk. However, I have never seen the project risk management that applied a construction site for practical approach. Therefore, I have developed a chart (I-Chart) for the project risk management, and also built a model (I-Chart scenario analysis) that I could use. I applied this model to container yard reclaimed land in harbor construction with approaching of geotechnical engineering.

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Evaluation of Algorithm-Based Simulation Scenario for Emergency Measures with High-Risk Newborns Presenting with Apnea (고위험 신생아 무호흡 응급관리 시뮬레이션 시나리오 평가)

  • Shin, Hyunsook;Lee, Yu-nah;Rim, Da Hae
    • Child Health Nursing Research
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.98-106
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    • 2015
  • Purpose: This study was done to develop and evaluate an algorithm-based simulation scenario for emergency measures for high-risk newborns presenting with apnea. Methods: A one shot case study design was used to evaluate the algorithm-based simulation scenario. Effects of the developed simulation scenario were evaluated using the Simulation Effectiveness Tool (SET) and the Lasater Clinical Judgement Rubric (LCJR). From March to November 137 senior nursing students completed the simulation using this scenario. Results: The eight-frame simulation scenario was developed based on the Neonatal Resuscitation Program (NRP) and the nursing clinical judgment process. After use of the scenario, overall scores for SET and LCJR were 21.0 out of 26.0 and 32.4 out of 44.0 respectively. There were no significant differences in scores according to general characteristics. Positive correlation coefficients were identified among overall and subcategories of SET and LCJR. In addition, students provided positive feedback on the simulation experience. Conclusion: Considering that nursing students have limited access to high-risk newborns during their clinical experience and that newborns presenting apnea are common in the neonatal intensive care unit, the simulation scenario developed in this study is expected to provide nursing students with more opportunities to practice emergency measures for high-risk newborns.